Sex Will Sell
A Fandango survey of 2800 Sex and the City ticket-buyers reports that (a) 94% are women, (b) 67% plan to see it with a group of women; (c) 16% of the female respondents said they are going with a single woman friend; and (d) 6 % said they were going with a man. (I feel sorry for those guys.) It's expected to do slightly better on its first weekend than The Devil Wears Prada, which did $27.5 million in its opening frame and took in $124.7 by the end of the domestic run. Sex is expected to earn more than $30 million by Sunday night, and possibly exceed $35 million.
I'll be seeing it for the first time at a noon show in Paris tomorrow, and will file sometime tomorrow afternoon.
No screening invites since the good people at Warner Bros., who apparently ran screenings for this New Line/HBO co-production, have kept me on their don't-invite-him for several months because, as I explained a while back, I had the temerity to write this ten-month-old piece about an abrasive ad/trailer for No Reservations. Former WB marketing chief Dawn Taubin (a.k.a., "the village idiot") apparently became offended. The ban officially kicked in three months later (it takes Warner Bros. distribution execs a long while to get around to making decisions), and that was that.
I wouldn't mind as Warner Bros., like other studios, is basically out of the game of making movies for hip or even halfway-hip adults. It has CG'ed and downmarketed itself into the cultural pig trough. Hey, Jeff Robinov, I have an idea -- how about about making Grand Theft Auto 4: The Movie? You could make some money with that and honor the Warner Bros. legacy (which is being honored by You Must Remember This, a Richard Schickel documentary about the good old tyrannical Jack L. Warner days) at the same time.
The '08 exceptions to not being in the WB groove will be missing out on press screenings of (a) The Dark Knight and (b) Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino. And I regret, of course, that the WB advertising that I used to get during Oscar season is now history.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on May 27, 2008 at 6:54 AM
comment #1
MikeSchaeferSF
says ...
So... only 6 per cent of the ticket-buyers are gay men? That seems awfully low to me. But then I live in SF.
Posted by MikeSchaeferSF
at May 27, 2008 8:02 AM
comment #2
The Hey
says ...
Hm......you have advertising for a Picturehouse film on your site. Isn't that (sort of) WB?
Posted by The Hey
at May 27, 2008 8:18 AM
comment #3
diesel
says ...
do you remember anthony hopkins in 'legends of the fall'?
"SCREW'EM!"
Posted by diesel
at May 27, 2008 9:17 AM
comment #4
Monument
says ...
I can confirm this anecdotally; my wife has secured herself a veritable posse of women who plan on seeing the film this weekend.
Posted by Monument
at May 27, 2008 10:17 AM
comment #5
actionman
says ...
I'm not gay and I think the movie looks fun. I enjoyed the show for what it was so I am hoping that the movie is on par with the best episodes of the show. My fiancee is very excited to see it and I kind of owe her after dragging her to Indy and Iron Man (though she enjoyed them in the end). I think there could be worse movies out there to check out during the summer months.
Posted by actionman
at May 27, 2008 10:23 AM
comment #6
Richardson
says ...
"Sex is expected to earn more than $30 million by Sunday night, and possibly exceed $35 million."
Are those numbers really good enough to justify this being a May release? When 'Speed Racer' opened at $30 mil, it was a failure. Obviously, this didn't cost that much -- but wouldn't this do better in July or August? Like all the R-rated sex comedies for boys do?
Posted by Richardson
at May 27, 2008 11:06 AM
comment #7
Richardson
says ...
Brain fart -- I meant to say that when 'Speed Racer' was expected to open around $30 mil, it was already being called a failure.
Posted by Richardson
at May 27, 2008 11:08 AM
comment #8
Rodrigo
says ...
I can't believe how LOW these expected numbers are. There's no way "Sex" will open to less than $50 million. It's certain to be the #1 film of next weekend, and from the looks of things (by which I mean most b.o. predictions), also the biggest box office underestimation of the year.
Posted by Rodrigo
at May 27, 2008 11:56 AM
comment #9
actionman
says ...
I wouldn't be surprised if Sex opens to $40 million or more...
Posted by actionman
at May 27, 2008 11:57 AM
comment #10
MattM
says ...
I'd say you're looking at more than a 40M opening. It's already impossible to get a ticket for it on Friday night in New York City. Admittedly, NYC may overrepresent people who will see the film, but even so, this is going to be huge. The question is going to be word of mouth.
Posted by MattM
at May 27, 2008 12:33 PM
comment #11
MattM
says ...
Also, a big big difference between SATC and Speed Racer is budget and P&A. Speed Racer was well north of 100M in budget alone, with huge advertising. SATC is buidgeted at 65M, and probably came in cheaper than that. (Limited, if any, effects, no big star salary to pay.)
Posted by MattM
at May 27, 2008 12:37 PM
comment #12
Richardson
says ...
As I said, the movie obviously cost less than 'Speed Racer', but you're missing the point of my question -- isn't May the "blockbuster" month? Obviously, "Sex and the City" is going to be competing with movies that spent more on P&A than "Sex and the City" cost to make period.
One quibble, though:
"(Limited, if any, effects, no big star salary to pay.)"
I'd bet that the four women in 'Sex and the City' got paid more than anybody in 'Speed Racer'. You needed all four of them to be in it or the audience would revolt; 'Speed Racer', anybody could be in.
Posted by Richardson
at May 27, 2008 1:13 PM
comment #13
Richardson
says ...
"Admittedly, NYC may overrepresent people who will see the film, but even so, this is going to be huge."
I feel like the main reason this movie got made is that every woman in LA and NYC watches the show religiously, and that overrepresented the demographics and convinced the studios to make it.
I don't live in a "flyover" state, but I have always thought that the show didn't have much deep penetration (har har) that far; ratings-wise, it was never close to 'The Sopranos'.
Posted by Richardson
at May 27, 2008 1:16 PM
comment #14
K. Bowen
says ...
The thing about Prada is that men kinda liked it. As the film went along, the male-female ratio balanced out some. It will be interesting to see if that happens here.
Posted by K. Bowen
at May 27, 2008 2:40 PM
comment #15
Josh Massey
says ...
Whatever it opens to, expect about 70% less the second weekend.
Posted by Josh Massey
at May 27, 2008 8:51 PM
comment #16
nola
says ...
The ratings for the re-runs on TBS and outrageous DVD sales convinced the studio to make the movie. It's how women who didn't have HBO discovered the show. It's also going to do well outside of NY and LA.
Anything over 30 mil is a huge number for a movie with this kind of budget that is "only a two quadrant movie".
In Rome there are ads everywhere. The series was very, very popular here. It's weird to hear the actors dubbed in the commercials.
Posted by nola
at May 28, 2008 2:54 AM