November 14
A Christmas Tale
B.O.H.I.C.A.
House of the Sleeping Beauties
How About You
November 21
The Betrayal
November 30
An incendiary comment by McCain adviser Charlie Black in a just-published Fortune interview states that (a) the assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December was an "unfortunate event" but McCain's "knowledge and ability to talk about it reemphasized that this is the guy who's ready to be Commander-in-Chief, and it helped us"; and (b) "so would another terrorist attack on U.S. soil...certainly it would be a big advantage to him."
I suspect that righties like Black are talking about another shocking event in the wings because they're picking up whiffs of an upcoming military confrontation between Israel and Iran sometime before the November election, and they're looking to set the stage before it happens. Hardcore Cheney neocons would not only be okay with a military blowup in the Middle East sometime in the early to mid fall because they believe, as Black stated, it would help their side and their agenda. I'll bet they're also rooting for it. An Obama victory will obviously mean the end of a "window of opportunity" as far as a decisive strike against Iran is concerned, so it's soon or never. The Israelis will make the first move, and that'll be the flash point.
Consider the implications of the following three items:
(1) Last Saturday's report in the Independent that Israel "has mounted a major long-range military air exercise -- involving more than 100 F15 and F16 fighters -- as a rehearsal for a potential strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, American officials have indicated."
(2) A recent article by New American Foundation's Steve Clemons that included the following statement: "I'm not saying that war or conflict with Iran is imminent. In fact, I don't think America, even under Bush, will strike Iran first -- but I do think that there is an increasing chance of a trigger event driving a fast escalation of higher and higher consequence military options. This trigger could be a mistaken signal, a ship collision, an event engineered by the Israelis, or by the IRGC Al Quds force, or by some other splinter terrorist operation wanting to exploit regional tensions and the current fragility of affairs."
(3) An op-ed written by former German foreign minister and Vice Chancellor Joschka Fischer on Friday, 5.30.08, in The Daily Star, a Lebanese newspaper, with this headline: "As things look, Israel may well attack Iran soon."
Here's the nub of it:
"Anyone following the press in Israel during the [recent 60th anniversary of Israel] celebrations and listening closely to what was said in Jerusalem did not have to be a prophet to understand that matters are coming to a head. Consider the following:
"First, 'stop the appeasement!' is a demand raised across the political spectrum in Israel - and what is meant is the nuclear threat emanating from Iran.
"Second, while Israel celebrated, Defense Minister Ehud Barak was quoted as saying that a life-and-death military confrontation was a distinct possibility.
"Third, the outgoing commander of the Israeli Air Force declared that the air force was capable of any mission, no matter how difficult, to protect the country's security. The destruction of a Syrian nuclear facility last year, and the lack of any international reaction to it, were viewed as an example for the coming action against Iran.
"Fourth, the Israeli wish list for US arms deliveries, discussed with the American president, focused mainly on the improvement of the attack capabilities and precision of the Israeli Air Force.
"Fifth, diplomatic initiatives and UN sanctions when it comes to Iran are seen as hopelessly ineffective.
"And sixth, with the approaching end of the Bush presidency and uncertainty about his successor's policy, the window of opportunity for Israeli action is seen as potentially closing.
"The last two factors carry special weight. While Israeli military intelligence is on record as saying that Iran is expected to cross the red line on the path to nuclear power between 2010 and 2015 at the earliest, the feeling in Israel is that the political window of opportunity to attack is now, during the last months of Bush's presidency."
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on June 23, 2008 at 3:26 PM
comment #1
Edward
says ...
When are we going to stop bending over and let Israel do what they damn well pleaee? Israel has a right to it's independence, but so does Palestine. Our policies towards Israel must change.
Posted by Edward
at June 23, 2008 4:57 PM
comment #2
EOTW
says ...
As an ethnic Jew living in the American heartland, I say just stand back and let the Jews wipe Iran off the fucking map. Sorry, but someone needs to clean house over there and we got our hands full. The Jews kick ass and they'll do it in a timely manner.
Posted by EOTW
at June 23, 2008 5:16 PM
comment #3
SaveFarris
says ...
I guess Iran wants to mess with the Zohan
Posted by SaveFarris
at June 23, 2008 6:06 PM
comment #4
brendan
says ...
End of days.....I wish Carlin was here to shed some light on this one.
I am not surprised by anything the Neocons (American and Isreali) do. Now they are running out of time and could be put in a corner by Obama & or McCain. Jeff's reporting is spot on and this is not a good situation for the rest of us.
Posted by brendan
at June 23, 2008 6:40 PM
comment #5
dsqadsa
says ...
Seems he is a hooker. I've seen his profile on the wealthy dating club W E A L T H Y C H A T . C O M for hot singles to hook up for Hot Love and Sexy Dating. He seems to be hooking up with nice girls there.
Posted by dsqadsa
at June 23, 2008 7:43 PM
comment #6
D.Z.
says ...
"I suspect that righties like Black are talking about another shocking event in the wings because they're picking up whiffs of an upcoming military confrontation between Israel and Iran sometime before the November election, and they're looking to set the stage before it happens. Hardcore Cheney neocons would not only be okay with a military blowup in the Middle East sometime in the early to mid fall because they believe, as Black stated, it would help their side and their agenda."
Though if that were really the case, then that recent scuffle with Israel and Lebanon would have given them a landslide in '06.
EOTW: "As an ethnic Jew living in the American heartland, I say just stand back and let the Jews wipe Iran off the fucking map."
We do that, and we kill thousands of Iranian Jews in the process.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 23, 2008 7:52 PM
comment #7
D.Z.
says ...
As for the likelihood of it happening, the real problem is that Dubya can't say "Mission Accomplished" the second time around, because he doesn't have the kind of time needed to make himself look good in front of the camera.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 23, 2008 8:01 PM
comment #8
MovieBob
says ...
This is the problem with Israel vs. Iran:
EVERY significant power in the Middle East would like to see Iran get dusted. All of them. The Iranian leadership has been trying to game the system and morph into the "new" boss-of-bosses in the area for decades, and everyone from the Syrians to the Egyptians to the Saudi royals perceive this as a prime direct or indirect cause of outbreaks of radicalism in their own nations.
Problematically, the Iranian leadership has done a SPECTACULAR job of getting large portions of the CITIZENRY of Arab/Muslim nations very much on their side even as the heads of state are against them. They have done this by appealing directly to the ever-present strain of anti-semitism that pervades "the Arab street." And I don't mean "we disagree with Israeli military policy" anti-semitism, I mean real-deal medievalistic "they are infidels!!!" anti-semitism. Iran winks and nudges about pointing nukes at the Jews, and the Arab world ADORES them for it.
Israel knows this, and they know the score. If Iran gets nukes, they are the intended target. Iran wishes, in one way or another, to become "the guys who took on or took OUT the Israelis" and thus rise to regional dominance riding a wave out support from street-level citizens of it's neighbors. And so there you have it: If Iran gets nukes, the Israelis will bomb it into a crater of glass.
PROBLEM: While the leadership of Irans neighbors would generally WELCOME having this ultimate loose-canon nation taken out, if the deed is done by the Israelis the aforementioned Jew-hatred of the Arab Street will FORCE said leaders to declare direct hostilities with Israel - moreso than usual - or risk Iran-style otherthrow by Islamist radicals, likely leading to all-out war.
Thus, the prefered alternative for the Saudis etc. would be for Iran to be dealt-with by a third party, preferable a nominal ALLY of theirs, so that they are obliged to feign favor for Iran. A third party, preferably, who can strike with overwhelming force and who is rather economically inclined to "work with" the Saudis.
Guess who they'll pick? ;)
Posted by MovieBob
at June 23, 2008 10:09 PM
comment #9
ZayTonday
says ...
Damn MovieBob... You seem to have hit the nail on the head. We as the United States need to tell the Saudi's that we ain't the one to be played like a chump if that happens though.
Posted by ZayTonday
at June 23, 2008 10:49 PM
comment #10
D.Z.
says ...
Bob: "EVERY significant power in the Middle East would like to see Iran get dusted. All of them. The Iranian leadership has been trying to game the system and morph into the "new" boss-of-bosses in the area for decades, and everyone from the Syrians to the Egyptians to the Saudi royals perceive this as a prime direct or indirect cause of outbreaks of radicalism in their own nations."
The reason that the Arab countries don't like Iran is that it's *less* fundamentalist then everyone else.
Furthermore, those countries are afraid it'll destroy the status quo with its emphasis on religion that reflects the
greater will of the people, instead of just benefiting a few rotten apples at the top of the ladder.
"Problematically, the Iranian leadership has done a SPECTACULAR job of getting large portions of the CITIZENRY of Arab/Muslim nations very much on their side even as the heads of state are against them. They have done this by appealing directly to the ever-present strain of anti-semitism that pervades "the Arab street." And I don't mean "we disagree with Israeli military policy" anti-semitism, I mean real-deal medievalistic "they are infidels!!!" anti-semitism. Iran winks and nudges about pointing nukes at the Jews, and the Arab world ADORES them for it."
Except that's not really what's going on in Iran, since it has the second largest Jewish population in the region; and Ahmadinejad does not in fact reflect the views of the majority of the Iranians. In fact, they recently voted for less of his Yes-men in the system. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/16/world/middleeast/16iran.html
I also call bs on the Arabs getting a kick out of any nuclear armament in the region, since even Syria would rather negotiate with Israel than get World War III in their own backyard. Really, the only ones who get off on that scenario are the neo-cons.
"And so there you have it: If Iran gets nukes, the Israelis will bomb it into a crater of glass."
Only if they can find the nukes.
"While the leadership of Irans neighbors would generally WELCOME having this ultimate loose-canon nation taken out, if the deed is done by the Israelis the aforementioned Jew-hatred of the Arab Street will FORCE said leaders to declare direct hostilities with Israel - moreso than usual - or risk Iran-style otherthrow by Islamist radicals, likely leading to all-out war. Thus, the prefered alternative for the Saudis etc. would be for Iran to be dealt-with by a third party, preferable a nominal ALLY of theirs, so that they are obliged to feign favor for Iran. A third party, preferably, who can strike with overwhelming force and who is rather economically inclined to "work with" the Saudis. Guess who they'll pick? ;)"
I think us invading Iran would probably be more disastrous than Israel bombing a few reactors, to be honest. No one had a fit when they went after that alleged reactor in Syria. But they sure as hell don't want us to be turning the leaders of their countries into compliant puppets like we've done in Iraq.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 23, 2008 11:01 PM
comment #11
Arizona Joe
says ...
I do not have a problem with Israel attacking Iran. They deserve it.
However, some policy expert said if that happened, gasoline would rise to $8 per gallon for a while. I doubt most Americans would tolerate that in the name of ridding the Iranians of nukes. I don't see that scenario helping John McCain.
In addition, the U.S. economy would be in a shambles that most of us have never seen.
Posted by Arizona Joe
at June 24, 2008 1:23 AM
comment #12
BurmaShave
says ...
Black will be gone within days. Mark my words.
Posted by BurmaShave
at June 24, 2008 1:45 AM
comment #13
D.Z.
says ...
Joe: "I do not have a problem with Israel attacking Iran. They deserve it."
They deserve it for what reason, exactly? For inflammatory comments made by one of their leaders?
By that logic, we deserve to be attacked for what Coulter and Falwell have said over the years. I'm not a fan of Ahmadinejad, but unless you can prove he has nukes, and intends to use them before the year's up, an attack on Iran would be as illegitimate as our last war, plain and simple. And we can't even play that hostage card against them anymore, considering we've illegally held people at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 2:30 AM
comment #14
NUMBSKULL
says ...
Let me get this right:
Israel has an estimated 150 to 200 ILLEGAL nuclear warheads ( US Dept Defence/Jimmy Carter etc) and is going to attack iran which has NONE! Uh, OK.
Posted by NUMBSKULL
at June 24, 2008 3:01 AM
comment #15
NUMBSKULL
says ...
Let me get this right:
Israel has an estimated 150 to 200 ILLEGAL nuclear warheads ( US Dept Defence/Jimmy Carter etc) and is going to attack iran which has NONE! Uh, OK.
What's good for the jews is good for the gander.
Posted by NUMBSKULL
at June 24, 2008 3:02 AM
comment #16
NUMBSKULL
says ...
Let me get this right:
Israel has an estimated 150 to 200 ILLEGAL nuclear warheads ( US Dept Defence/Jimmy Carter etc) and is going to attack Iran which has NONE! Uh, OK.
What's good for the jews is good for the gander.
Posted by NUMBSKULL
at June 24, 2008 3:02 AM
comment #17
NUMBSKULL
says ...
The USA illegally invades Iraq. Israel illegally develops the sixth biggest nuclear arsenal in the world. Iran LEGALLY develops nuclear power capacity, but not nukes... America?
I'm sorry, but God forgive us, USrael really are the modern Nazis.
So yeah, let Israel attack Iran... Which bunch of dumb suckers are gonna pay? That's right, the American people, as usual! More national debt, more "terrorism", country in recession, can't pay to educate our own kids, or have a decent health service - sorry, spent all the money on the Iraq war... But hey, it's worth it... and all for our wonderful 'friends' in Israel... and don't forget the Oil companies! They love yah too! Gotta squeeze every drop of profit on the oil prices!
You bunch of grade-A suckers!
Fool me twice?
Sure, I'm American!
Posted by NUMBSKULL
at June 24, 2008 3:16 AM
comment #18
MAGGA
says ...
D.Z is right on the money in this thread. And seriously, gas prices? The US still has some of the lowest gas prices in the world and anyone who thinks attacking another country for the sake of paying less at the pump is a greedy përson with a bloodlust and no regard for human life
Posted by MAGGA
at June 24, 2008 7:24 AM
comment #19
dinther
says ...
"As an ethnic Jew living in the American heartland, I say just stand back and let the Jews wipe Iran off the fucking map. Sorry, but someone needs to clean house over there and we got our hands full. The Jews kick ass and they'll do it in a timely manner."
EOTW, you believe "being an ethnic Jew living in the American heartland" entitles you to advocate destroying other countries at your prerogative? By virtue of what right? Or do you simply get off on virtual acts of machismo, spouting off tough talk with the comfort of knowing that you'll never have to back it up.
Anyone who has been through war, or who has walked through the debris and graveyards of countries on the receiving end of bombing raids, would know better than to spout off this jingoistic bullshit. No, EOTW, watching "Schindler's List" doesn't count. Have you ever been to Iran? Do you have ANY sense of how well-meaning, civil, and educated its citizens are, you ignorant fucking twat? Of course not. But that doesn't stop you.
The worst part is that so much of this attitude is propelled by blowhard pussies such as yourself, who cheerfully advocate bombing an entire nation from the comfort of your basement, knowing you will never have to deal with picking up the bodies of dismembered children, deal with the health crises that follow these actions, or otherwise actually DO anything to back up your rhetoric.
And most repugnant is the fact that you spout off this bullshit and you are Jewish - what a disgrace. Have you learned nothing from your people's history? Oh yeah - you have - eradicating a country or a race is fine, as long as its not your own.
You ignorant fuck.
Posted by dinther
at June 24, 2008 7:50 AM
comment #20
NUMBSKULL
says ...
Woops, sorry for the 3 multiple posts above. I shall self-hate for about 30 minutes, OK everyone?
Posted by NUMBSKULL
at June 24, 2008 8:03 AM
comment #21
MovieBob
says ...
D.Z.
"They deserve it for what reason, exactly? For inflammatory comments made by one of their leaders?
By that logic, we deserve to be attacked for what Coulter and Falwell have said over the years."
Is it worth pointing out that Ahmadinejad is the PRESIDENT of his country, while Falwell and Coulter have no real direct political power in ours?
More to the point, Iran does more than talk tough: They are direct financiers of most of the radical movements causing trouble throughout the region. As you correctly note, despite the rather cosmopolitan nature of IT'S citizenry, Iran's leaders have more in common with the radicalized "common folk" of Saudi Arabia etc. than THEIR leaders do, and part of that connection is supporting terrorists.
Now, does that mean they deserve it? Not really, no, but "deserve" is beside the point in geopolitics. This is the real world, not some cartoon clash between absolute good and absolute evil. That doesn't happen. Hell, the LAST time we fought an absolute evil it was the Nazis and we had to team up with ANOTHER evil in the Soviets to beat them.
Israel and Iran have both, as nations, done some rotten things - Iran much moreso, but it's certainly not a wash. They are very likely heading for a confrontation of some kind. Two morally-questionable (to varying degrees) nations at war. We (as in U.S. policy) has to be with ONE of them, there's no third option. So who do we go with? The one that encourages and will benefit from a violently destabilized region, aims it's weapons at us? OR the one that will benefit only from a STABILIZED region and doesn't aim it's weapons at us?
Posted by MovieBob
at June 24, 2008 8:35 AM
comment #22
D.Z.
says ...
Bob: "Is it worth pointing out that Ahmadinejad is the PRESIDENT of his country, while Falwell and Coulter have no real direct political power in ours?"
But he's not the one officially in charge.
"More to the point, Iran does more than talk tough: They are direct financiers of most of the radical movements causing trouble throughout the region."
Actually, that hasn't been proven. Even if it has, though, the same argument can be made for the Sauds, Qadaffi and Syria.
"As you correctly note, despite the rather cosmopolitan nature of IT'S citizenry, Iran's leaders have more in common with the radicalized "common folk" of Saudi Arabia"
Actually, I was saying the complete opposite.
"Israel and Iran have both, as nations, done some rotten things - Iran much moreso,"
Again, you can't argue that Iran is worse than Israel or the U.S. after what happened at Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib.
"So who do we go with? The one that encourages and will benefit from a violently destabilized region, aims it's weapons at us? OR the one that will benefit only from a STABILIZED region and doesn't aim it's weapons at us?"
How 'bout demanding they cease hostilities like we do with India and Pakistan, huh? [Oh, and while we're at it, not being Bush, and giving nuclear power to the non-Muslim side, and supporting a fascist puppet on the Muslim side who also has his finger on the button, while arguing against nuclear proliferation. ] They hate each others' guts, too, and we have no problem playing referee in that situation.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 10:48 AM
comment #23
Chicago48
says ...
all I know is energy costs going up; unemployment is going higher; food and other costs are up; and if we/ they bomb Iran, then we're most definitely looking at a recession. Don't think for one moment that Iran doesn't have missiles aimed at oil fields, its own or others like the Iraqis and Saudis. Not only that, they have "friends" like Venezuela and that nutcase will stop all oil shipments to the U.S.; and Russia may even stop oil shipments to the U.S. Oil and the cost of oil will determine whether or not we attack Iran. Can we risk more economic hardship? Well, no, but with the neocons in control of the White House, they will make the American public suffer.
We just had a devastating 2nd "Katrina"; god help us if we have a 3rd Katrina.
Posted by Chicago48
at June 24, 2008 2:04 PM
comment #24
D.Z.
says ...
Chicago: Recession? Try depression.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 2:55 PM
comment #25
bb
says ...
I nominate Numbskull for the most appropriate forum nickname in the history of forum nicknames.
Posted by bb
at June 24, 2008 2:55 PM
comment #26
MovieBob
says ...
D.Z.
"How 'bout demanding they cease hostilities like we do with India and Pakistan, huh? [Oh, and while we're at it, not being Bush, and giving nuclear power to the non-Muslim side, and supporting a fascist puppet on the Muslim side who also has his finger on the button, while arguing against nuclear proliferation. ] They hate each others' guts, too, and we have no problem playing referee in that situation."
Because it wouldn't WORK. India and Pakistan are endlessly hostile, but 98% of it is over entirely tangible things like land and allegiance which can be haggled over and "managed" to a degree. Neither side, at the makes-stuff-happen level, has a death wish. Musharraf is FAR from ideal, but he's (barely) effectively keeping the Fundamentalists from taking power.
By contrast, Palestine (the "Pakistan" analog in their version) has at it's leadership, military AND civilian levels a too-high concentration of individuals who not only want to wipe out their enemy with "they pray the wrong way and moved in next door" as a primary motivating factor, BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL BE REWARDED IN HEAVEN IF THEY DIE DOING IT. That's kind hard to "referee."
BTW, apparently the most recent "truce" got broken tonight after a WHOLE five days. Rocket attack from the Palestinian side. You're SHOCKED, I can tell ;)
Posted by MovieBob
at June 24, 2008 9:35 PM
comment #27
D.Z.
says ...
Bob: "Because it wouldn't WORK. India and Pakistan are endlessly hostile, but 98% of it is over entirely tangible things like land and allegiance which can be haggled over and "managed" to a degree."
And you think that those aren't issues in the Middle East?
"Neither side, at the makes-stuff-happen level, has a death wish. Musharraf is FAR from ideal, but he's (barely) effectively keeping the Fundamentalists from taking power."
I'd say he's actually been more helpful to the fundy cause, than if, say, Bhutto were in charge.
"By contrast, Palestine (the "Pakistan" analog in their version) has at it's leadership, military AND civilian levels a too-high concentration of individuals who not only want to wipe out their enemy with "they pray the wrong way and moved in next door" as a primary motivating factor, BUT BELIEVE THEY WILL BE REWARDED IN HEAVEN IF THEY DIE DOING IT. That's kind hard to "referee."
We did it with Egypt and Jordan, and Israel's going at it alone with Syria. But I was referring to Iran, not the Palestinians.
"BTW, apparently the most recent "truce" got broken tonight after a WHOLE five days. Rocket attack from the Palestinian side. You're SHOCKED, I can tell ;)"
I'm more shocked that we've chosen to let this conflict continue for so long, because, otherwise, Bush's cronies wouldn't make any money off of it...
Posted by D.Z.
at June 25, 2008 1:07 PM
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