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Similar Obama Lead
The new Times/Bloomberg poll, released an hour and three quarters ago, says Barack Obama is currently holding a 12-point lead over John McCain, 49% to 37%. Throw in Ralph Nader and Bob Barr and Obama holds 15-point edge. That 15 point lead Obama had in the recent Newsweek poll seems less eccentric now. Whites are evenly split between the two -- 39% and 39%. 11% of former Clinton supporters (bitter) have gone over to McCain's side.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on June 24, 2008 at 3:45 PM
comment #1
D.Z.
says ...
Replace Nader with Ron Paul, and I'll agree. But Obama winning because of Perot-like competition isn't going to seem that impressive, unless he can seal the 2012 election the way Clinton did in '96.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 4:05 PM
comment #2
D.Z.
says ...
Well, actually, now that I think about it, the result would be more of a slap in the face of the Republicans, since they'd be losing to themselves, and not just some random Independent.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 4:15 PM
comment #3
SaveFarris
says ...
Both this and the Newsweek poll use the registered voters metric instead of the much more reliable likely voters.
Posted by SaveFarris
at June 24, 2008 4:32 PM
comment #4
D.Z.
says ...
I doubt it's a huge difference for likely voters, especially since prices keep going up.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 4:54 PM
comment #5
D.Z.
says ...
Affirmative action, Republican style? http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080624/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/justice_inquiry_hiring
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 5:38 PM
comment #6
BurmaShave
says ...
Yes DZ, I agree Obama won't be a two term President until he wins in 2012.
Posted by BurmaShave
at June 24, 2008 6:59 PM
comment #7
jc
says ...
Hey D.Z.
Does getting 49% of the vote in 1996 constitute "sealing the deal"?
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe1996/summ.htm
Perot ran twice, Clinton never got 50% of the popular vote.
Posted by jc
at June 24, 2008 7:51 PM
comment #8
D.Z.
says ...
jc: Well, if Perot hadn't run, it probably would have been a landslide for Clinton. That might not necessarily have been the case in '92, though. But if you're going to be technical, the vote wasn't "popular" anyway, since it was a low turn-out that year; and what Clinton really won was the majority of the people who showed up for that election.
Posted by D.Z.
at June 24, 2008 8:25 PM
comment #9
Rich S.
says ...
Then again...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108376/Gallup-Daily-Obama-McCain-Tied-45.aspx
Posted by Rich S.
at June 25, 2008 1:29 PM
comment #10
bb
says ...
Polls tell you what people think people think. Don't think that means much.
Posted by bb
at June 25, 2008 1:39 PM
comment #11
martindale
says ...
Gallup shows the race tied, and rasmussen shows a slim lead for Obama.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Posted by martindale
at June 26, 2008 1:03 PM
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