comment #1

thatrader says ...

I LOATHED "The Visitor." Worst film at Sundance. Its likelihood should be nil, but who knows, the Academy sometimes does have taste as bad as Jeff.

comment #2

actionman says ...

Jeff: did you mean that you read the script to Body of Lies and thought it was brilliant?

If you did, I'm not surprised; it's one of the best scripts I have read in a while.

John Hillcoat's The Road is going to be a contender I think.

comment #3

Mr. Gittes says ...

Monahan's Body of Lies script is damn good. I've been saying this for quite some time. However, Steve Zallian did some re-writes on Crowe's behalf, not sure why, but I kinda know why...

Body of Lies trailer premieres in front of another best picture contender(hopefully), The Dark Knight. I hope, though, the BOL trailer is on apple or whatever before Friday.

comment #4

pm123 says ...

The best movie of the year is always the one you're going to see tomorrow. Ah, the eternal optimism of the American filmgoer! A testament to the enduring strength of the myth-making apparatus of Hollywood. There's nothing else like it on Earth! We all know perfectly well that 9.8 out 10 of these movies will be anonymous, derivative, formulaic, corporate crap, but we still excitedly make lists expressing our tingling excitement and absolute conviction that this one or that one'll be "great." Jeffrey - can you put up your bets for Oscar picks from EACH MONTH of years past? I think we'd all be ashamed of how excited we were about "Chicago" a few years ago or "V for Vendetta," or any number of Star Wars movies. What's great is that even after innumerable inevitable, vicious, heartbreaking letdowns (see "Star Wars"), we still line up with clammy hands for "The Dark Knight" or whatever it will be next year. "No - this one is DIFFERENT!" we all say. Of course. They all are. Until the next one.

comment #5

worrywort says ...

well put

comment #6

gruver1 says ...

Wells to pm123: I agree -- a very true thing you've just stated. That said, I know what I know when I say Che is the stuff of legend, and that Eric Roth's script for Benjamin Button is very top of the line.

comment #7

BurmaShave says ...

Wells, CHE is your MAMMA MIA! That's enough.

comment #8

Unison says ...

As I see it the big contenders are:

Australia
Benjamin Button
Changeling / Gran Torino (the LA Crix will likely flip for the former)
Doubt
Milk
Revolutionary Road

Most of the other stuff that's being mentioned here (e.g. Happy-Go-Lucky, The Visitor, Frost/Nixon), seems blatantly more suitable for the acting/screenplay categories.

Che's not getting a Best Picture nomination, no matter what.

comment #9

Chicago48 says ...

I'm still smarting & upset about last year's elimination of American Gangster from almost every category.

comment #10

BurmaShave says ...

Why? It was average in almost every way.

comment #11

actionman says ...

nothing "average" American Gangster

comment #12

cjKennedy says ...

It's way too early to be thinking about Oscar.

comment #13

gruver1 says ...

Wells to cjkennedy: Are you serious? For Oscar strategists and early word-of-mouth junkies, Oscar season starts every year around mid-July. What 1985 rock are you living under? It starts in earnest around Labor Day, picks up steam by October 1st or therabouts, etc. Join the 21st Century, dude.

comment #14

Doug says ...

Is there any Oscar category that has fewer eligible entrants than Best Animated Feature? Imagine making a film and having about a 1 in 10 chance of winning an Oscar.
Now after lobbying for and getting their own category, the animation world wants "Wall-E" to receive
a Best Picture Oscar, too.
(I don't think it's ever happened, but I believe under the Academy rules a movie could potentially win Best Foreign Film and Best Picture.)
If "Wall-E" were to win both Best Animated Feature and Best Picture, you would think there would be a call for other Best Picture sub-categories - Best Comedy, Best Drama, Best Action/Fantasy film, and there would be a good argument for them. Att least in those categories, films would be competing against more than 10 or so other contenders.

comment #15

EDouglas says ...

For a movie to be nominated for an Oscar Best Picture doesn't it have to be considered at least good, if not great? Mamma Mia! is neither... people should stop assuming that all musicals get Oscar nominations 'cause of Chicago... Dreamgirls didn't and that was probably the closest we've come to a great movie musical.

comment #16

Bob Violence says ...

If "Wall-E" were to win both Best Animated Feature and Best Picture, you would think there would be a call for other Best Picture sub-categories - Best Comedy, Best Drama, Best Action/Fantasy film, and there would be a good argument for them.

Not really, given that animation is a medium and not a genre. You could make an argument for redefining "Best Picture" as "Best Live-Action Picture" and eliminating the double eligibility of documentary and foreign features, but the "why an animation category but no comedy/drama/comic book sequel category?" reasoning is pretty weak.

comment #17

JChasse says ...

Saw a trailer for "Miracle at St. Anna" and they're certainly gunning for a Best Picture nomination. Just a feeling on my part, but you combine the war picture aspect with the spiritual vibe the trailer gave me, add the idea of it being a Spike Lee film released in the year of Obama... if Spike can avoid having a fistfight with Clint Eastwood on the corner of Hollywood and Vine between now and the nominations, it might happen.

comment #18

JChasse says ...

And I think that describing it as "a Spike Lee movie in which a bank teller is shot by an old guy having a memory seizure" is like describing the Godfather as a movie about an undertaker asking a friend for a favor.

comment #19

pm123 says ...

Seriously, though - could you put up archived copies of your "Oscar Balloon" entries for every month (or so) of the last few years? I think it would be very interesting to see the evolution of hope (and it's eventual destruction). Especially the first few AFTER the previous year's Oscars (registered trademark). What movie were you convinced was going to change the world in April of 2007, and turned out to be a footnote by the following February?

comment #20

T. S. Idiot says ...

Agree that Spike's film looks promising, has lots of elements the Oscar voters might embrace.

Until further evidence is available, still have high hopes for
The Reader, though the older woman-younger man sex scenes may put off some voters.

comment #21

cjKennedy says ...

cjKennedy to Wells. Of course I'm serious and I'm neither an Oscar strategist nor an early word-of-mouth junkie. I'm in the business of enjoying movies. Oscar isn't a blip on the radar this time of year.

comment #22

Jamieson says ...

"cjKennedy to Wells. Of course I'm serious and I'm neither an Oscar strategist nor an early word-of-mouth junkie. I'm in the business of enjoying movies. Oscar isn't a blip on the radar this time of year."

Nor should it be. The business of declaring what films are "worthy" of consideration before having SEEN them is asinine and goes against what the Oscars SHOULD be (but obviously aren't) about, which is the quality of the films being judged. All of this political positioning of the films before they're seen is destructive to the process and potentially to the audience's enjoyment.

If it's "1985" to wait to see the films to judge them for such consideration...can we call up Superman to reverse the clock?

comment #23

Balthazar says ...

"Doubt" seems like awfully heavy going, from the plotlines I've read. How marketable is that sucker going to be?

Then again, the entire theme of this year seems like marketing nightmares left and right -- Che, Milk, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, W....

Even Revolution Road and The Changeling aren't marketing slam dunks.

And Benjamin Button, while easier going, ain't exactly Forrest Gump...

PR folks are going to earn their salaries this year, for sure.

comment #24

Mr. Buckles says ...

On Benjamin Button, I have posted here early and often on my hopes for this film. With a one year old at home, this will be one of the rare pictures I pack up the wagon to take in at the theater.

With that said, I must be honest in sharing one concern, Brad Pitt. The issue isn't that he isn't a strong performer, the issue is that he is strong with certain material and when he can inject his sense of humor which seems plentiful (12 Monkeys, Snatch, Fight Club, the Ocean's movies, even Kalifornia on some level).

One only needs to look at the balance of his more traditional dramatic turns to have an informal Webster's reference to leaden (Troy, Seven Years in Tibet, Sleepers, The Devil's Own - I put Meet Joe Black in an entirely different category and I thank the almhhgty for the must see train wreckage of a cherished guilty pleasure).

He tries and we give him a pass because we like him as a movie star, but we quietly acknowledge things like, I'm glad Gladiator went to Crowe.

But this is where this post takes a turn back into Positive-ville, his one really terrific dramatic turn was in Se7en which was helmed by... Fincher. Let's just hope his intonation isn't as distracting as his voice-over for the trailer.

comment #25

BurmaShave says ...

Buckles, having recently watched LEGENDS OF THE FALL and INTERVIEW WITH THE VAMPIRE, I can't disagree. Having said that, did you see ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES, and if so, where would you put it? I for one thought he was fucking brilliant.

comment #26

monsieur hire says ...

"I LOATHED "The Visitor." Worst film at Sundance. Its likelihood should be nil, but who knows, the Academy sometimes does have taste as bad as Jeff."

Hardly. The Visitor is hands-down the most mature, deeply-felt and strongest acted drama of 2008 to date. It is an exceedingly well-written film, and what transpires onscreen between people (wow!) is more exciting than about anything else exploding at the movies this year. And yes, this includes the overrated The Dark Knight, of which I am inclined to join the contrarian group mentioned in this column earlier today.

To say that Richard Jenkins and Hiam Abbass, who create one of the most memorable love stories where adults actually fall in love for reasons -- imagine that -- are somehow connected to "the worst" anything, is blatantly foolish and says more about the viewer than the film.

The Visitor is understated, deals with the human dimensions of an important issue, never preachy and features superb acting and writing. It is not political, it is intensely personal and well-observed. Sorry you missed it.

And if you thought this film was "the worst" anything, it's about your "taste" buddy, and not the film. And people wonder why the American film business has gone done the drain.

(rant over)

comment #27

cjKennedy says ...

Jamieson, upon further review I'd guess that Wells is saying there are people who have a legitimate interest in such a thing and that's who he's writing for in this case. I'm just a simple movie lover and don't factor into his equation. Perhaps I should apologize for cluttering up his comments section with my uselessness.

comment #28

MilkMan says ...

Paranoid Park is the best American film of the year so far, and I doubt anything else will come close. At the very least, the movie, in a just industry, would win for best sound design and cinematography. I know it won't win shit, and will be forgotten by the end of the year, but from a technical standpoint, Van Sant's movie is light years ahead of anything else being made by the Hacks-cum-faux-geniuses (cough nolan cough) being force-fed down the throats of the American public by philistine movie reviewers whose area of expertise lies somewhere between rotisserie football and FHM's hottest 100 women of the last two weeks.

comment #29

Mr. Buckles says ...

I would say that w/ Interview with the Vampire and The Assassination of Jesse James, Brad Pitt acquits himself. In neither film do I feel he hurts the work, but nor does he transcend as a performer.

As far as Legends of the Fall, let's just say that he shouldn't be held accountable for what seems to have been the longest Abercrombie and Fitch shoot of all time.

comment #30

nemo says ...

Christ, Brad Pitt looks like my grandfather in that picture. Or at least my grandfather when I was a kid. Especially those ugly glasses.

The time to think about the Oscars is never. Oscar ain't never gonna be anything other than a heartbreaker, like the Cubs.

comment #31

Mr. Buckles says ...

(pssst, Nemo, brad pitt IS supposed to look like your grandfather as this is both a period picture AND a dramatic fable about a man that ages in reverse over the course of a life)

comment #32

Mgmax says ...

"Imagine making a film and having about a 1 in 10 chance of winning an Oscar."

And that's granting Space Chimps an equal chance.

comment #33

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comment #34

K. Bowen says ...

After the ratings debacle of last year, I fully expect to see THe Dark Knight. assuming the raves continue. Particularly given that so much of this year seems weak.

comment #35

Rich S. says ...

That picture of Pitt raises and interesting question. Has anyone ever taken pictures of actors/actresses that were aged for a role, and then compared them to how they really looked when they reached that age? Might be interesting. For one, William Shatner looks nothing like when they aged him in that episode of the original Star Trek.