Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has told Der Spiegel that he supports Barack Obama's proposal that U.S. troops should leave Iraq within 16 months. "We think [that] would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes," Maliki said. And that's it -- the tide has fundamentally gone against John McCain. He's been basing his candidacy on toughing it out and staying the course in Iraq, and now what does he say?
The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder has written that this "could be one of those unexpected events that forever changes the way the world perceives an issue. Iraq's Prime Minister agrees with Obama, and there's no wiggle room or fudge factor. This puts John McCain in an extremely precarious spot."
Ambinder also quotes an e-mail reaction sent by "a prominent Republican strategist who occasionally provides advice to the McCain campaign , [saying] simply, 'We're fucked.'"
Time's Joe Klein is basically agreeing that McCain has been dealt terrible cards with this statement, and that it's hard to imagine how it won't hurt him big-time. In a piece called "Big Deal? No...Bigger," TPM's John Marshall has written that "Maliki has cut McCain off at the knees in a way I'm not sure his campaign strategy can recover from."
Update: A CNN report says that "a spokesman for al-Maliki said his remarks 'were misunderstood, mistranslated and not conveyed accurately.'" As Charles Durning 's politician sang in The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, "Oooooh, I like to do a little sidestep!"
"Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the possibility of troop withdrawal was based on the continuance of security improvements, echoing statements that the White House made Friday after a meeting between al-Maliki and U.S. President Bush.
The following graph appears in the original Der Spiegel interview: "Maliki was careful to back away from outright support for Obama. 'Of course, this is by no means an election endorsement...who they choose as their president is the Americans' business," he said. But then, apparently referring to Republican candidate John McCain's more open-ended Iraq policy, Maliki said: 'Those who operate on the premise of short time periods in Iraq today are being more realistic. Artificially prolonging the tenure of US troops in Iraq would cause problems."
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on July 19, 2008 at 5:17 PM
comment #1
dre
says ...
and boom goes the dynamite
Posted by dre
at July 19, 2008 5:48 PM
comment #2
AH
says ...
If Iraq gets more violent then Maliki will change his tune and things will be reversed. My point is that there is too much time between now and the election for this to mean anything substantial.
Posted by AH
at July 19, 2008 5:48 PM
comment #3
Geoff
says ...
AH is right in saying there's still alot of time left.
Right now it will be kind of fun to watch the Republicans tap dance.
Posted by Geoff
at July 19, 2008 6:02 PM
comment #4
Coltrane
says ...
People need to think beyond the first level. If violence returns then the military aspect of the surge would have accomplished what? The surge was intended to provide a window of opportunity for political reconciliation. This really hasn't happened. Proponents of the surge got lucky because the Sunni Awakening occurred at the same time. This, more than anything is responsible for the downturn in violence. But again, that leaves us where? Iraq is more secure, so we need to stay? If we leave, Iraq will become less secure?? Good luck with those Republican talking points.
John McCain's Iraq position is untenable when the leader of a sovereign nation asks you to leave.
Posted by Coltrane
at July 19, 2008 6:18 PM
comment #5
le corbeau
says ...
"Right now it will be kind of fun to watch the Republicans tap dance."
Then later it will be fun to watch President Obama dance when there's a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan, and the nearest military unit he has to do something about it is based in Ramstein, Germany.
Posted by le corbeau
at July 19, 2008 6:19 PM
comment #6
Coltrane
says ...
Mgmax,
Are you that clueless? What part of "redeployment" do you not understand. He's been advocating for an additional 2 brigades in Afghanistan since last year. I really love low information voters that post on film blogs.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archive...
Posted by Coltrane
at July 19, 2008 6:33 PM
comment #7
Coltrane
says ...
Mgmax,
Are you that clueless? What part of "redeployment" do you not understand. He's been advocating for an additional 2 brigades in Afghanistan since last year. I really love low information voters that post on film blogs.
Who's the Real Foreign Policy Expert?
Posted by Coltrane
at July 19, 2008 6:35 PM
comment #8
Movie Watcher
says ...
It looks bad for McCain, but hey, with the Dems you never know. It should be a blow out election. I still will not vote.
Posted by Movie Watcher
at July 19, 2008 6:37 PM
comment #9
gruver1
says ...
Wells to MovieWatcher: You "won't vote"? In times like these, in any times, there is nothing lower than those committed to sitting on their hands. I respect McCain voters more than you. I respect PUMAs, for God's sake, more than you. I respect Nader voters more than you.
Posted by gruver1
at July 19, 2008 7:28 PM
comment #10
le corbeau
says ...
"I really love low information voters that post on film blogs."
I love pompous dickwads who insult people they know nothing about, personally.
Posted by le corbeau
at July 19, 2008 7:39 PM
comment #11
j_bonies
says ...
Uh oh!
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/07/19/almaliki.obama/
Posted by j_bonies
at July 19, 2008 7:44 PM
comment #12
Coltrane
says ...
Mgmax,
I don't need to know you to know you have little to no information about what you speak when you say "...and the nearest military unit he has to do something about it is based in Ramstein."
What do you think "redeployment to Afghanistan" means? You do know that Afghanistan is a NATO operation?
Stick to movies or be prepared to be peppered with the truth.
Posted by Coltrane
at July 19, 2008 7:47 PM
comment #13
BurmaShave
says ...
Mgmax, I will ask you to kindly point me to where Obama said he would withdraw from Afghanistan.
Posted by BurmaShave
at July 19, 2008 7:54 PM
comment #14
le corbeau
says ...
Okay, first off you all realize you're splitting hairs about a hypothetical. If it helps your comprehension of what I'm getting at, change Afghanistan to Derkaderkastan, and Germany to Fredonia. The point is, you're all celebrating that we'll probably lose a major base in the world's most-screwed-up region, and eventually that might prove to be a bit of a problem-- if, y'know, your party actually has some responsibility for American security and no longer gets to just vote for wars when they're popular and act like they didn't have anything to do with them when they're not.
Secondly, gee fucking whiz, wherever might one get the idea that a guy who is determined to back out of Iraq might also bug out of Afghanistan at the first opportunity. I mean, the only reason most of your crowd acts so tough on Afghanistan is because it's one more cynical way to bash Bush. If we do leave Iraq you'll be beating the leave-Afghanistan drum a nanosecond later.
Third, as long as we're playing the stupid internet game of insulting each other like 12-year-olds, I don't need to know you have little to no information to speak when you imply that deployed troops in Afghanistan and a well-established base in Iraq or Germany are identical and interchangeable in force strength, equipment and training.
We need bases in the middle east. If we lose our bases in Iraq, the next president will regret it and have to find substitutes. It is that simple. And it is time, if your party plans to govern, to start thinking tactically about such things, not just talking in bumperstickers.
Posted by le corbeau
at July 19, 2008 9:47 PM
comment #15
D.Z.
says ...
Mgmax: "Then later it will be fun to watch President Obama dance when there's a Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan,"
Wasn't Bush supposed to do something about that? Oh, wait, he has done something: Ignore it completely.
"and the nearest military unit he has to do something about it is based in Ramstein, Germany."
Speaking of which, why are we asking NATO to take up the burden, when they're not based there?
Posted by D.Z.
at July 19, 2008 9:48 PM
comment #16
MovieBob
says ...
"He's been basing his candidacy on toughing it out and staying the course in Iraq, and now what does he say?"
Um... he says "Hey, look! That Surge I supported before and harder-than anyone else worked and now we can leave that much sooner." Is this your first election?
Posted by MovieBob
at July 19, 2008 9:58 PM
comment #17
Coltrane
says ...
Mgmax,
Installing bases as nothing to do with military tactics. Tactics occur on the battlefield within the theatre of war.
There will be no permanent bases in Iraq. The Iraqi government is opposed to it. They just balked at an agreement that would have ensured a long term US troop presence. If you want to sleep better there are bases in Kuwait...This isn't Command & Conquer...American foreign policy is not about establishing bases in the Middle East just so that you can feel better about "American Security". What the hell do you think spawned Bin Laden and his following....bases in FREAKING SAUDI ARABIA!!
Iraq was never an imminent threat. It was a war of choice that GWB decided to wage. Afghanistan is a completely different situation. It is a NATO operation being undertaken by coalition forces. And there are bases in Afghanistan.
Posted by Coltrane
at July 19, 2008 10:14 PM
comment #18
le corbeau
says ...
If you're going to be a pedant, try to be pedantic about what I'm actually saying.
"Iraq was never an imminent threat. It was a war of choice that GWB decided to wage. "
That tells me all I need to know.
Posted by le corbeau
at July 19, 2008 11:02 PM
comment #19
K. Bowen
says ...
Their military is dependent on American logistical support. It's domestic politics. What he says and what he ulitmiately negotiates won't be one and the same.
Posted by K. Bowen
at July 19, 2008 11:23 PM
comment #20
fielding
says ...
Big deal. Nothing changes the fact that the idiot Obama opposed the surge, which has been an unqualified success.
Posted by fielding
at July 20, 2008 1:38 AM
comment #21
D.Z.
says ...
fielding: If it's so successful, why are we still there?
Posted by D.Z.
at July 20, 2008 2:50 AM
comment #22
le corbeau
says ...
Oops, never mind. CNN says:
But a spokesman for al-Maliki said his remarks "were misunderstood, mistranslated and not conveyed accurately."
Government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the possibility of troop withdrawal was based on the continuance of security improvements, echoing statements that the White House made Friday after a meeting between al-Maliki and U.S. President Bush.
Posted by le corbeau
at July 20, 2008 6:46 AM
comment #23
le corbeau
says ...
If D.Z. was the chief of police, he'd retire after catching his first burglar.
Posted by le corbeau
at July 20, 2008 6:47 AM
comment #24
swordandpen
says ...
"Nothing changes the fact that the idiot Obama opposed the surge, which has been an unqualified success."
If you believe that, you'd believe anything.
Posted by swordandpen
at July 20, 2008 7:33 AM
comment #25
SpinDozer
says ...
Oops, never mind. CNN says:
But a spokesman for al-Maliki said his remarks "were misunderstood, mistranslated and not conveyed accurately."
Yeah, right. Here's the correctly understood, translate and accurately conveyed transcript (corrections in bold/italic)
SPIEGEL: Immunity for the US troops is apparently the central issue.
Maliki: It is a fundamental problem for us that it should not be possible, in my country, to prosecute offences or crimes committed by US soldiers against our population. But other issues are no less important: How much longer will these soldiers remain in our country? How much authority do they have? Who controls how many, soldiers enter and leave the country and where they do so?
SPIEGEL: Would you hazard a prediction as to when most of the US troops will finally leave Iraq?
Maliki: As soon as possible, as far as weire concerned (not!). U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal (not!), with the possibility of slight changes.
SPIEGEL: Is this an endorsement for the US presidential election in November? Does Obama, who has no military background, ultimately have a better understanding of Iraq than war hero John McCain?
Maliki: Those who operate on the premise of short time periods in Iraq today are being more realistic (not!). Artificially prolonging the tenure of US troops in Iraq would cause problems (not!). Of course, this is by no means an election endorsement. Who they choose as their president is the Americans' business. But it's the business of Iraqis to say what they want. And that's where the people and the government are in general agreement: The tenure of the coalition troops in Iraq should be limited.
This was posted on the Bush Sychophant blog site, I'm pretty sure it's gold.
Posted by SpinDozer
at July 20, 2008 11:52 AM
comment #26
D.Z.
says ...
Mgmax: "If D.Z. was the chief of police, he'd retire after catching his first burglar."
It seems Bush retired before he even caught Osama.
Posted by D.Z.
at July 20, 2008 1:32 PM
comment #27
BurmaShave
says ...
Maybe we actually wanted to win the war against the people who attacked us rather than let them escape through the back door and then go invade somebody who had nothing to do with it. Maybe 150,000 troops in Iraq would be more useful in Afghanistan and eventually Pakistan actually fighting Al Qaeda. Maybe if you did your homework you'd know Obama is actually to the right of McCain on Bush on actual terrorists rather than bogeyman in Mesopotamia.
Posted by BurmaShave
at July 20, 2008 2:53 PM