comment #1

Rich S. says ...

I don't think his prediction with respect to a film's earnings is particularly ominous. After all, a film earning $400+ or $500+ million is still the very limited exception, rather than the rule. It's only because production costs have gotten so out of whack that such a gross is even necessary.

Now, his prediction with respect to multiplexes folding like origami is another matter.

comment #2

corey3rd says ...

I bet if we pick through the WSJ, you'll find an amazing quote about how radio will destroy movie theaters. And then we'll hear about how TV broadcasting movies will destroy movies in theaters. And how digital pirates will kill box office.

Don't bet against such things happening. If a movie needs to be seen big and causes a massive buzz, there is a chance that huge audiences will pay for tickets.

comment #3

vansmith says ...

i disagree, for one these comic book movies were meant to be seen on the 30ft screen and in imax, thats the appeal, not enough M&M eaters will have the home theaters to shut down the megaplexes.

comment #4

mutinyco says ...

Complete nonsense. This is as dumb as that Lehman analysis from a few weeks ago.

Anybody who believes VOD is going to be the future of movies has a sphincter for a cerebellum. VOD and web distribution will be just another ancillary. It'll have a greater impact of video rental and traditional cable than sales and theatrical.

The financial institutions keep trying to apply the music model to movies and it doesn't work. People listen to music in a different manner than they watch movies. The investors are simply see stagnating DVD sales (because the studios are running out of catalog titles) and demand a new area of growth, that's all.

$500M grossers are a fluke. Titanic was a fluke. Until the mid-90s, even grossing $300M was a fluke. Prior to '94 (Gump, King) there had only been 3 domestic $300M films EVER: Star Wars, E.T. and Jurassic Park.

Big fat yawn.

comment #5

Joel says ...

The Dark Knight's shattering box office records during a bad economic time and we're supposed to believe that multiplexes will be disappearing in two years? Ha!

comment #6

Chase Kahn says ...

I really hate all this talk of "Video on Demand" or "Streaming Netflix to my Xbox 360". I'm worried that video rental stores will become a thing of the past (like record stores), and that saddens me.

Are we that lazy that we don't want to leave the house to pick up a movie?

As for theaters shutting down, forget it. I don't want to wach THE DARK KNIGHT at home for the first time when I can watch it on a screen 100x the size of that that will melt my face off.

comment #7

Mark says ...

Chase Kahn: What's a video rental store?

comment #8

Richard_Stone says ...

I have a different ominous prediction: there will be inflation.

comment #9

iamjoe says ...

I'm in the same opinion that films like The Dark Knight and Titanic are in a strange class of their own. Both of the film's very high grosses and success are the result of many circumstanceds including the talent involved, high quality and planned/unplanned timing. These levels can't really be duplicated or formulated with any degree of reliability.
But...I don't agree with video on demand replacing the opening of film in a multiplex. People still see the value of getting out to the theater, the quality of films like TDK remind them of that. And VOD has never been a first choice for any large percentage of viewers anyway.

comment #10

Jeffrey Kunze says ...

Why didn't that Stanley Morgan tool or anyone else on HE mention the whole 3D technology that's supposedly going to come to maturity with James Cameron's Avatar in late '09 (or whenever).

Doesn't this add a whole new element to the conversation.

Sure regular theater movies won't make $400 mil or over. But what about these new uber-advanced, 3D movie experiences being created as we speak.

$400 mil seems like an easy target for an experience like this, which you can obviously only get by going to the theater.

comment #11

Movie Watcher says ...

The multiplexes won't be gone for many years. You can have the biggest tv possible, and it can't compete with a theater. Plus you are in a crowd and people love that collective experience. So what is the next move to come close to the dark knight? Transformers 2? The Hobbit? I don't know. Unless you are rich,and can afford a real theater in your mansion, you're still going to the movies.I agreee that the dark knight is the exception. Plus, unfortunately, the death of Ledger boosted ticket sales.

comment #12

Cadavra says ...

For decades we were told that no film would ever outgross GONE WITH THE WIND. Then SOUND OF MUSIC did it, and it would never be beaten. Then in the space of a decade came GODFATHER, JAWS, STAR WARS and E.T., all of which would never be beaten.

TITANIC will be outgrossed one day. Don't know when or by what, but it will happen. Go to the bank on it.

comment #13

C-PhreekII says ...

Thing is, Boucher is probably right - sort of - but is putting the emphasis on the wrong factors. The two things that are becoming brick walls for high grosses are falling attendance and short DVD release windows. When you take a look at the adjusted gross table at Box Office Mojo and realize that only 3 films released in the last 25 years made it into the top 20 (or 5 in the top 25) the writing is on the wall that people just aren't going to movies like they used to. Even for "event" pictures.

The collapsed DVD window means that films can no longer "mop up" millions of further filmgoers for up to half a year. Unless a studio sees the film has legs and decided to hold the DVD date.

He is right that if the studios make the idiotic decision to pull the trigger on simultaneous pay per view and theatrical dates then it will have SOME impact. But seeing that these same studios are continuing to blow huge wads of missed advertising dollars by not having a viable ad-sponsored streaming video in place while overcharging for iTunes and such, you can be certain when PPV arrives they will overcharge for that too.

Yet, it's only a matter of time before inflation of both the dollar and the population pushes another film over the $500M mark and well within our average lifetimes.

comment #14

Rich S. says ...

If you look at that selfsame Adjusted Gross table on Box Office Mojo, you will see that, lo-and-behold, Gone with the Wind is still the all-time champ.

In fact, to be fair, we should probably start measuring box office statistics by number of tickets sold, rather than grosses. But if they did that, they'd actually see just how far theater attendance has fallen.

I agree that theaters themselves will be around for awhile, but I think they will eventually be for "event pictures" like Avatar and the like. The average theater going experience now is so poor, choosing to watch most films at home on release would be a no-brainer.

comment #15

Mgmax says ...

"For decades we were told that no film would ever outgross GONE WITH THE WIND. Then SOUND OF MUSIC did it"

Minor, vaguely interesting quibble dept.: Actually, both The Ten Commandments and Around the World in 80 Days temporarily broke GWTW's record, but a late-50s reissue put GWTW back on top again. They tried the same thing with Sound of Music (a 100th Anniversary of the Civil War reissue in '65), but it was too far ahead and GWTW was dethroned at last.

comment #16

Amazing Larry says ...

Saw DARK KNIGHT for the first time Sunday. Arrived at 2 PM to try to get tickets for the 5 PM IMAX. All screenings sold out for the rest of the day.

Wife pissed. I'm on the Net 10 frakkin' hours a day, and I didn't find this out before we drove 20 miles??? She has a point.

Okay, so we settle for a "normal" viewing. Went over to STAND IN LINE for the next showing in an hour. Haven't had to do that in ages, at least since I said "adios" to my teen years.

The line is out the door and around the theatre. In speaking to people around us, we were the only ones who hadn't seen it yet, and these people are giddy and can't wait to watch it again. Most of them were denied IMAX just like us, but don't give a crap: they will see this flick whichever way they can.

Okay, previous showing lets out. People in our line are calling out, "What did you think?" "How was it?" Every person walking out is excited, giving us thumbs up, and saying "Ledger is amazing!" This is not 300 pound fan boys, mind you... this is non-geeky looking corpexec types, couples in their 30's, older women, heck, the whole range of "demos". And a bunch of them are walking right back to the box office to get tickets again, and catch another showing after they grab some dinner.

We get into the theatre and it fills about 3/4ths of the way up. Excellent screening. Audience is rapt at attention. Somebody's cell phone chirps at the 20 minute mark, and everybody in the immediate vicinity growls viciously. Nervous laughter when Ledger is on screen, nobody is chatting with their seat mates, few people get up to use the can, big claps at the end. We hear people saying, "I'm seeing it again next weekend", "Gotta see it on IMAX," "We're bringing dad and mom tomorrow", every comment is positive and most mention seeing it again.

I loved it. Wife (who is much smarter than me and has hated everything this year) thought it was brilliant, and says that she wants to see it again next weekend. I've known this lady for 14 years, and she NEVER EVER WANTS TO SEE THE SAME MOVIE TWICE.

The gist: As long as the DVD isn't hitting until Turkey Day, this is blowing TITANIC's domestic away safely. You can bet on it. It's not just about Ledger dying young, the movie itself is the best quality blockbuster we've had since the RINGS series (no offense, Wells), and the word of mouth is unlike anything I've ever seen before.

As far as cineplexes shutting down.... I say phuck 'em all. Motion Picture Exhibitors have zero imagination and they deserve everything that's coming to them. But I've said too much already.

comment #17

Jay T. says ...

The sky is falling, the sky is falling!

comment #18

corey3rd says ...

During the pre-video days when a movie could mop up millions by being in release for months on end, it never opened that wide. You didn't have the same ad blitz campaign. How many theater opened Thunderball?

When a movie opens up on 4,000 screens, a majority of the people who want to see it, will end up seeing it in the first few weeks. Rarely do you even have to resort to a second choice - especially if you use Fandango. Because the big movie is playing on five screens inside the mega-plex.

The same is true with DVDs at Blockbuster. There's no more waiting weeks to find it on the shelf. They'll have a 100 copies of the latest hit. Odds are in three weeks, they'll have 98 of those copies just sitting around collecting dust.

comment #19

Agent of Nerd says ...

Dark Knight is the Jurassic Park of $500 million movies. It's a harbinger of things to come. Star Wars and ET stood alone for 10 to 15 years and then came Jurassic, Gump, Lion King, Independence Day, and Titanic. Now we have a $300 million blockbuster every year(lately 3 a year). Pirates, Shrek and Spider-Man all have crossed the $400 million mark, and now TDK will break $500 million. Richard Stone was right- it's inflation and it's inevitable. Star Wars, Jaws and Titanic all grossed more than $800 million on their initial runs in the theater, and the truth is that DVD has almost certainly made that impossible in the current market. Something, I'm not sure what(Avatar, Avengers, Mutt Williams and the Lost License), will knock off Titanic as the #1 domestic moneymaker soon, though. And it will probably end up somewhere around #23 on the All Time Adjusted list.

comment #20

rr3333 says ...

This movie is WAY overrated.

Granted, Ledger and Eckhart were terrific, but the movie itself was simply solid, but definitely not spectacular.

And, in answer to the original post .... it wont make more than Titanic.

comment #21

btwnproductions says ...

Is Boucher on Morgan Stanley's payroll to hypothesize about THE DARK KNIGHT? If not, no wonder the economy's in such sad shape, except for anyone with a fiduciary interest in Batman.

comment #22

Chicago48 says ...

I agree w/n the next 2 years movies will be piped into home entertainment centers. I'm already watching a lot of movies on the internet, on my little 17" monitor. And some of them are free....some I pay for.....and his prediction that the DK may be the last of its kind....is spot on because Hollywood is mesmerized with comic book action heroes and I think the public is going to get tired of it all. Most of it is nothing more than shoot-em-ups with high whizz bang effects that are mind numbing. No storyline whatsoever. The actors are secondary.

comment #23

Agent of NERD says ...

"Star Wars, Jaws and Titanic all grossed more than $800 million" adjusted for inflation. That's a key bit of info that I left out.

comment #24

filmfestivalgeek says ...

Rich S. makes sense with his comments and others are right about the "screw the exhibitors" atitude...popcorn and ju-jube sales over cinema art, any day for them, so why cry for them.

Still, movie viewing is evolving and while my creaky aging body would rather stay on the couch and not battle crowds, parking and the aforementioned inflated popcorn prices, event cinema will always bring them in.

IMAX is breathing again, is it not?

comment #25

D.Z. says ...

Joel: "The Dark Knight's shattering box office records during a bad economic time and we're supposed to believe that multiplexes will be disappearing in two years?"

Probably. TDK made some big bank, but it still ain't like '89 in which people were practically tripping themselves waiting in line for a tentpole film. The last time that seriously happened was with Phantom Menace, and attendance has been on the decline since that time.

Chase: "I'm worried that video rental stores will become a thing of the past (like record stores), "

Already happened to me.

"Are we that lazy that we don't want to leave the house to pick up a movie?"

No, we just hate having to turn in stuff before their due dates-particularly when they're one-day rentals.

iamjoe: "I'm in the same opinion that films like The Dark Knight and Titanic are in a strange class of their own. Both of the film's very high grosses and success are the result of many circumstanceds including the talent involved, high quality"

The terms "talent" and "quality" are debatable, when used in reference to Titanic.

"People still see the value of getting out to the theater, the quality of films like TDK remind them of that."

Having to sit through pointless exposition or a talking chihuahua movie ad ten years after it got old at Taco Hell doesn't give me any value.

Jeffrey: "Why didn't that Stanley Morgan tool or anyone else on HE mention the whole 3D technology that's supposedly going to come to maturity with James Cameron's Avatar in late '09 (or whenever). Doesn't this add a whole new element to the conversation. Sure regular theater movies won't make $400 mil or over. But what about these new uber-advanced, 3D movie experiences being created as we speak. $400 mil seems like an easy target for an experience like this, which you can obviously only get by going to the theater."

The problem is that, while 3-D films make money, they still can't beat non-3-D movies unless they're must-see films, and/or have a significant audience. Beowulf and Hannah Montana are the only titles in that format which cracked number 1, and they were released in otherwise dead weekends. And even then, they still did not make particularly extraordinary openings, compared to non-3-D tentpoles. There's a lot of hype about that format being big, but until it can be considered a viable replacement for DV[Another gimmicky failure.], it'll just lead to more lost revenue.

Larry: "As long as the DVD isn't hitting until Turkey Day, this is blowing TITANIC's domestic away safely. "

Dude, TPM couldn't beat Titanic, and that sucker had a bigger fanbase. I'm betting TDK will be forgotten when up against The Mummy 3 just the way Kung Fu Panda knocked down Indy 4. That friggin' Step Brothers movie already took a chunk of TDK's expected geek total, and-even with Will Ferrell on the skids-it only took half as long to put a dent in it as it took Austin Powers 2 to dethrone TPM.

Agent: "Dark Knight is the Jurassic Park of $500 million movies. It's a harbinger of things to come."

Bull. Jurassic Park had never-before-scene CG dinosaurs, while gritty Batman's been done to death.

comment #26

JosephB says ...

I've got a nice bridge here in Dallas I'd be willing to sell.

And maybe I'm far removed from the popular culture because of my age (early 30's), but how can anyone stand to watch a freakin 2 hour movie on their computer? I try and watch a 4 minute clip on YouTube and I find myself getting bored and jittery waiting for it to end. I can't recline at my computer, I can't put my feet up and lay on the couch and I certainly can't enjoy the visual quality of my 60 inch Samsung DLP television set on my little computer screen. No thanks for me. And judging by the demographics at the last 3 or 4 movies I've attended on the weekends, the 14-19 year old crowds are as populous as ever. Jay T. said it best- this is "sky is falling" rhetoric at its finest.

comment #27

Agent of NERD says ...

D.Z., I was only comparing TDK and Jurassic Park in terms of box office trends. I wasn't referring to cutting edge special effects or overall film quality. Inflation enabled both films to earn historical amounts of money and I think TDK will be followed by other record breaking films in the next five years, just as Jurassic Park was. DVD does impact all of this, but not to the extent that movie theaters will be gone in two years. They won't be gone in two decades.

comment #28

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