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Stepbrothers will be the weekend's big wide-release opener, possibly snagging $30 million or so -- tracking at 89 general awareness, 40 definite interest and 19 first choice. X-Files: I Want to Believe is running at 81, 25 and 9...bomb.

The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (August 1) is running at 90, 39 and 9 -- showing promise, possibly decent opening. Kevin Costner's Swing Shift...I'm sorry, Swing State...I meant to say Swing Vote (also 8.1) is running at 58, 20 and 1 -- big trouble.

Pineapple Express (8.6) is running at 47, 37 and 5. (The 8.6 opening is about getting some traction before the Beijing Olympics begin on August 8th.) Sisterhood fo the Traveling Pants 2 (also 8.6) is at 78, 22 and 4.

Tropic Thunder (8.13) is at 59, 33 and 2 -- an okay number for now, opening in the middle of the Olympics.

comment #1

CinemaPhreek says ...

Shouldn't you credit where you are snatching these numbers from? Or do you have subscription to their source so that isn't necessary?

Also, just out of curiosity, how do summer numbers stack up against the rest of the year? Intuitively, there should be a grading curve (or is it factored in already?) as the top outlet for advertising, television, is at its lowest ratings ebb.

comment #2

Carl LaFong says ...

Are the Olympics even relevant anymore? At least to the point where it will affect cinema boxoffice. I think the folks who go see movies aren't really, to make a blanket-generalization, sports enthusiasts anyway and those who are will know the results hours before because of time-delayed broadcasting.

The opening and closing ceremonies are always a draw because of the spectacle, but I can't imagine the receipts for TROPIC THUNDER will be adversely impacted by the games.

Of course, Universal/NBC will cross-promote "synergize" the Mummy flick with the Chinese setting with Olympics - as if the two really have anything to do with each other. My bet is on special prime time guest commentator Jet Li...

comment #3

larry says ...

He can't credit the source because it's not kosher (nor responsible for that matter) to share Nielsen tracking data

comment #4

Terry McCarty says ...

Carl LaFong wrote:
Of course, Universal/NBC will cross-promote "synergize" the Mummy flick with the Chinese setting with Olympics - as if the two really have anything to do with each other. My bet is on special prime time guest commentator Jet Li...

They already have "snyergized." Saw a crappy commercial that blended a trailer for the film with Olympic coverage.

comment #5

MikeSchaeferSF says ...

I think $30M for Stepbrothers is being generous. The core demo will be seeing DK for the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th time.

comment #6

Josh Massey says ...

If Step Brothers underperforms, we won't be seeing another R-rated Will Ferrell movie any time soon. For that reason alone, I'm rooting for it.

comment #7

berg says ...

re X Files: I Want to Believe ... the worst beard since Gods and Generals

comment #8

Joel says ...

What's Batman going to make this weekend? Another $100 million?

comment #9

Cadavra says ...

Oh, why limit ourselves? I'd be happy to never see another Will Ferrell movie regardless of rating.

comment #10

Anomaly says ...

The first choice numbers here add up to 51, if I added right. Would The Dark Knight still be being tracked? Is that a big chunk then of the remaining 49? Also, is Clone Wars in the same survey?

Pretty high for Stepbrothers, but wasn't Semi-Pro also high? Seems unlikely this can do 30M.

comment #11

CinemaPhreek says ...

Will be interesting to see what DARK KNIGHT does, indeed. It just broke the 6 day record with $222M (ah, where is Entropy around when you want to rub his nose in it? Oh, right, he deleted his account and ran away).

Considering the unheard of Sunday drop of just 8.5% it might just do much better than the expected $75M most expect. It might just very well drop by only 37% to make $100M.

Anyone still doubt the prediction that it would sail past $400M? Conventional wisdom math says that it will do 3x opening, so that's $450M.

Screw it, I'm ready to go all in and say $500M is now the floor. And if the drop does hold to less than 40%, then we can start to seriously talk about it having a shot at sinking TITANIC.

On a humorous note, anyone care to wager how many screenings in the San Diego area will sell out every evening show this weekend?

comment #12

CinemaPhreek says ...

Clarification: obviously, this if for "domestic" North American numbers. KNIGHT will not come even close overseas, so the World Wide crown is safe for now.

Keep in mind, in adjusted dollars, TITANIC made $883M. In fact, I think it will be the last movie to possibly have both the US domestic and worldwide titles.

comment #13

K. Bowen says ...

Too bad about X-Files, to the extent that Gillian Anderson doesn't get enough work.

comment #14

Mgmax says ...

Did you see Anderson in the BBC/Masterpiece Theater Bleak House, K. Bowen? It's excellent, easily the best thing on that show in several years.

comment #15

nemo says ...

"Kevin Costner's Swing Shift...I'm sorry, Swing State...I meant to say Swing Vote"

Maybe you meant Swing Kids? Or Swingers?

comment #16

jse33 says ...

Clarification: obviously, this if for "domestic" North American numbers. KNIGHT will not come even close overseas, so the World Wide crown is safe for now.

Keep in mind, in adjusted dollars, TITANIC made $883M. In fact, I think it will be the last movie to possibly have both the US domestic and worldwide titles.

Posted by CinemaPhreek at July 24, 2008 03:14 PM

---------------

Actually, if you want to talk "adjusted for inflation" numbers, the real king is "Gone With the Wind". It's ticket sales would be $1.39 BILLION in the US. Star Wars is #2 with $1.22 BILLION.

comment #17

CinemaPhreek says ...

"Actually, if you want to talk "adjusted for inflation" numbers..."

TITANIC is the most recent benchmark for top money earner. I showed it's adjusted gross simply to illustrate that $600M for DARK KNIGHT is not as far fetched as people think because many will automatically argue that it won't be as popular as TITANIC as a rule of thumb. Hence, there's no way it will reach $883M I admit, but $600M is plausible.

But none of this is possible until we see the 2nd weekend and weekday numbers. Even then, we don't have a current film to serve as a guide. HANCOCK is the only other movie that has been playing after all students were released for summer break and it wasn't exactly well received so of course KNIGHT will have better mid-week numbers. INDY IV came out when half were still in class.

comment #18

K. Bowen says ...

MGMax, I haven't. I have a friend who also recommends it. And I know her performance is great in it.

After The House of Mirth, I would have bet she would have won an Oscar within about five years.Unfortunately not. But there's still time.

comment #19

Steffen says ...

Recently, quite a few celebrities and pro athletes were said to appear on the millionaire luxury club "R I C H L O V I N G.C O M" to hook up with hot girls, ladies, models... OMG!!! Are these famous guys fond of internet dating for now?? Maybe they are indeed so rich that they feel boring sometimes to need new things? It was reported on MSN Charlie Sheen has found his girl there last May

comment #20

BurmaShave says ...

If it makes 600 million domestic I dont see how it doesn't get a Best Picture nomination.

comment #21

Alpha Base says ...

K. Bowen said:
"Too bad about X-Files, to the extent that Gillian Anderson doesn't get enough work."

Just saw the Files on the big screen. It's a very brave movie. No cheap thrills, no glamorizing. Very believable characters, each on a personal journey. Even Duchovny is good. Anderson is actually fantastic, showing a gamut of emotions. The confrontation scene with her and Connolly is amazing, the kind of acting that is rare to see in a typical yankee movie.

I wouldn't worry about her career at all. Just don't expect her to make it in Hollywood: she's too talented and too BS-proof for that. She has two comedies released this year, and in 2009 she will, among other things, star in the Gellhorn biopic and appear in "Doll's House" in one of the best British theatres.

comment #22

K. Bowen says ...

Alpha Base:
My sentiments about the X-FIles movie are in the same ballpark, although I didn't think that much of it walking out. Now that the lame plot has kind of worn away from my mind and what's left is the relationship drama, I actually appreciate a good deal of what's going on, even if I still think it's far from perfect. I think "brave" is a good description. It's Sculy's film, and Anderson is really good in it. You might be interested in following the link to my blog for more thoughts.

I don't mean to mope on Anderson's behalf. It's been a successful career so far. I was reading about the Gelhorn project, and it sounds pretty promising. At the same time, Wells once ran a thread in which he invited his posters to name actors who had their career going great and then mysteriously dropped off the cliff for awhile, or forever. She was my selection. I'm glad to see she's getting more work, even if the roles movie-wise are smaller than one would hope. Hopefully, she is one great performance that she has in her away from a return to real prominence.

comment #23

Spacesheik says ...

I am an X FILES fan and rushed last night to see the flick. I was surprised it was playing at one of the smaller AMC screens the theater was half full, a bad omen as well.

I was quite disappointed with the film, a dreary, pedantic relationship drama with serial thriller overtones, obviously the film - though strikingly shot - was aiming for an existential, faith versus science motif, it seemed just over 90 minutes and lacked any action, tension or interesting set pieces.

A far cry from the original which made over $100 million and played the larger screens, don't expect any FBI buildings exploding, massive saucers hidden under ice caps, swarms of bees attacking our principals, and the other big setpieces in the original - this is a very intimate, small film revolving around an uninteresting premise.

It's a real pity, because Gillian Anderson is excellent in it. Duchovny however was surprisingly glib and weak in this film, relegated to puns, getting his ass kickeidd several times...

Exhibitors aren't stupid, they saw this flick and realized it was a bomb in the making, way too cerebral and tedious for the summer masses. Fox couldn't have opened this no matter how much money they threw at the marketing.

Pretty sad really.I don't even think even rabid X-Files fans will enjoy this.

comment #24

K. Bowen says ...

It really does have the wrong release date. It's a lot more like a fall movie than anything else. Carter channeling Bergman or Antonioni.

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