Track

The Dark Knight will pull in north of $120 million this coming weekend -- it may even hit $130 million. Update: Okay, I was being too conservative. It may hit $150 million, but forget anything over that. The tracking -- 97 general, 68 definite and 44 first choice -- tells the tale. Mamma Mia! is running at 84, 28 and 14....$25 to $30 million, maybe more. Space Chimps are Dead Chimps -- 54, 17 and 2.

Stepbrothers (opening 7.25) is 78, 35 and 6...but consicousness is low on this thing because of the Batman film. Give it time to build and breathe. X-Files: I Want To Believe (7.25) is running at 71, 26 and 4. The Rocker (Fox) is looking pretty bad at 17, 11 and 0. The Mummy (8.1) is at 87, 38 and 5...not bad, getting there. Kevin Costner's Swing Vote is running at 43, 16 and 1...nothing yet, work to do.

Ixnay to JoMo<< previous | next >>Done With

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on July 14, 2008 at 12:41 PM

comment #1

breadlymoore Author Profile Page says ...

Already some splats on the Tomatometer for "Knight."

It's "Wall-E" fanboy mania all over again in the comment section!

Posted by breadlymoore Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:01 PM

comment #2

Howlingman Author Profile Page says ...

Nothing like a good ol' fanboy smackdown debating the "suck" and "rulz" aspects of a movie none of them have seen, and will not change their opinion of after having seen it. It's like in '99 when a friend hated Phantom Menace, but resolved he'd keep going to see it until he liked it,because it was Star Wars, and how on earth could a Star Wars movie be bad?

Such innocent times...

Posted by Howlingman Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:11 PM

comment #3

calraigh Author Profile Page says ...

That's a significant jump for X-Files from last week, yes?
StepBrothers might actually make some money, who knew?

Posted by calraigh Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:12 PM

comment #4

djiggs Author Profile Page says ...

I think that Dark Knight is definitely breaking past $150 million. My prediction is $160 to 175 million.

By the way, I am kind of perversely waiting for the Armond White's automatic,savage ripped down on "The Dark Knight".
I expect to see the studio/Christopher Nolan being ripped apart for taking advantage of Heath Ledger's death, Christian Bale's overrated acting, and Christopher nolan's aping the visual unstylist Michael Mann (look at White's ripping of Peter Berg in his Hancock's review). If you thought the Edelstein & Denby's reviews were rough, wait till to Armond's come out.

This is coming from someone who will be seeing "The Dark Knight" 3 times this weekend.

Posted by djiggs Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:13 PM

comment #5

iamwhoiam Author Profile Page says ...

I will definitely have to agree about Christian Bale's overrated acting. The man is annoying and boring. Batman Begins was brilliant *despite* Bale, and i suspect Dark Knight will too.

Posted by iamwhoiam Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:19 PM

comment #6

Howlingman Author Profile Page says ...

Three times? Really? Why?

And I'm not being confrontational, djiggs, it's just that I can't remember the last time I saw a movie more than once in the theater.

Posted by Howlingman Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:20 PM

comment #7

CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page says ...

As usual, your box office prognostication skills are seriously lacking.

This thing is headed towards breaking the record, which is $151M on 4252 screens (KNIGHT is currently past 4300).

The general anticipation is beyond SPIDER-MAN 3. People are seriously amped for this one. Not only the usual fan boy circles, but also those who see this as the last film that can possible save the summer from mediocrity (or even dreck) that has ruled so far. This movie is going to remind everyone that people just aren't seeing "blockbusters" they way they used to.

I'll second your $160 - 175M, djiggs. My official guesstimate is $172M ($40K per theater gross).

Posted by CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:23 PM

comment #8

CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page says ...

Howlingman - I sure do, sadly, THE MATRIX (reflection of current state of movies, not the film). 3 times opening weekend - like a true junkie, I kept chasing the dragon attempting to be in a crowd like the 2nd night at the Chinese. The electricity in the air was something I have never experienced in a film before or since (except maybe STAR WARS when I was still a kid).

Seriously, we gave the lobby shoot out a standing fucking ovation, I shit you not.

Posted by CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:37 PM

comment #9

Josh Massey Author Profile Page says ...

It already has my nine bucks.

Posted by Josh Massey Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:41 PM

comment #10

K. Bowen Author Profile Page says ...

Christian Bale is a terrific actor, but Batman isn't an opportunity to show off.

On Dark Knight, I'm betting the over.

Posted by K. Bowen Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:57 PM

comment #11

CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page says ...

So, next round of estimates: can it knock SHREK 2 out of the number 3 North American record at $441M? Or the original STAR WARS at $460M? I say yes.

Because this thing sure as shit is going past $400M.

The real question is can it make it over $500M?

PS WELLS: if you were counting on the running time to save your estimate, think again. Spidey 3 was only 10 minutes shorter.

Posted by CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 1:58 PM

comment #12

Howlingman Author Profile Page says ...

But, CinemaPhreek, was it your intent to see THE MATRIX three times opening weekend before you'd seen it the first time? Or was it a reaction to the first screening; "I gotta see that again?" If the latter than I'm with you ... and in which case THE MATRIX was probably my last double shot at the movies (and that was still a couple weeks after the fact -- the first time was a sneak screening).

Posted by Howlingman Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 2:00 PM

comment #13

CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page says ...

Howlingman - are you kidding? I hadn't seen a single trailer and just enough of a vague sense of what it was about to joke "They made a sequel to fucking Johnny Mnemonic?!"

So, no, had not planed on it. But your OP simply said you couldn't remember the last time you has seen something more than once.

That said, keep in mind that is playing in IMAX, so any serious film buff probably owes it a shot in both formats. And djiggs might have some friends who have decided to make it an outing on Sunday afternoon.

Posted by CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 2:11 PM

comment #14

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

Saw EASTERN PROMISES twice in one weekend. Friday with my girlfriend, Sunday with my father. Not the norm though. I'm sure if I see DARK KNIGHT at 3am I'll want a second non-groggy viewing as soon as possible.

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 2:18 PM

comment #15

Rob Author Profile Page says ...

I'm predicting that there will be harsh wails of "DISAPPOINTMENT!" when The Dark Knight opens to "only" $125 million, followed by numerous wank-job pieces of "analysis" positing that people prefer "lighter" fare in an election year.

Posted by Rob Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 2:22 PM

comment #16

Howlingman Author Profile Page says ...

Someone had passed me a copy of the screenplay about a month or so out, so I had an inkling, but no idea what I was in store for. And yes my OP was about planning to see a movie 2 or 3 times a weekend. From about 91-99 I practically lived in movie theaters, but life and the usual stuff began to encroach around 2000. Still try and get to the theater once a week, but only to sample what's new.

But hey, if people are that excited about something, why not gorge themselves? Have fun.

Posted by Howlingman Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 2:30 PM

comment #17

Rothchild Author Profile Page says ...

If this movie makes 300 million it's the biggest Batman movie of all time. There will still be assholes that are disappointed because they thought their enthusiasm alone would push it to 400 or more.

Posted by Rothchild Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 3:32 PM

comment #18

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Phreek: For me, it was all about South Park and Dogma, not the Matrix. But then I already was familiar with Ghost in the Shell and John Woo, so...

Roth: "If this movie makes 300 million it's the biggest Batman movie of all time."

Does that include adjusting for inflation for the Burton film?

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 4:13 PM

comment #19

Rothchild Author Profile Page says ...

Fuck you and your inflation. Please leave forever.

Posted by Rothchild Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 4:17 PM

comment #20

Josh Massey Author Profile Page says ...

Um, does anybody remember Batman Begins stretching to get $200 million? I have no doubt this will outgross the first one, but double it? Heavy hype among the Internet set doesn't equate with the general public.

Posted by Josh Massey Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 4:41 PM

comment #21

York "Budd" Durden Author Profile Page says ...

Will it be considered a disappointment if it breaks a record this first weekend, and then in the end doesn't quite manage to double that gross?

Posted by York "Budd" Durden Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 4:48 PM

comment #22

ScottMendelson Author Profile Page says ...

For those who care, according to the last time I checked Box Office Mojo, Batman has an adjusted for inflation domestic gross of $411 million. I'd be very very surprised if The Dark Knight made 3/4 of that.

Posted by ScottMendelson Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 5:13 PM

comment #23

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Scott: Actually, that's not adjusted for inflation. That's how much it made back then.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 5:52 PM

comment #24

Filmsnob Author Profile Page says ...

'Dark Knight' Continues to Sell Out; Outpaces Highest-Earning Blockbusters
Four days prior to its release, MovieTickets.com already has over 450 performances of 'Dark Knight' sold out in North America

Last update: 6:01 p.m. EDT July 14, 2008

LOS ANGELES, July 14, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- MovieTickets.com ( www.movietickets.com ) is reporting that the highly anticipated film "The Dark Knight" is currently outselling three of MovieTickets.com's Top-10 Performing Films of All-Time at the same point in the sales cycle, including installments from such coveted franchises as "Pirates of the Caribbean," "Spider-Man" and "The Lord of the Rings."
To date, "Dark Knight" has sold more than three times as many advance tickets as "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," more than twice as many as "Spider-Man 3" and almost twice as many as "Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" at the same point in the sales cycle for each film.

Posted by Filmsnob Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 6:21 PM

comment #25

CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page says ...

#47 Batman WB $433,127,800/$251,188,924 (adj/unadjusted)

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

And today's talking out of his ass award goes to: holy shit, the uninterrupted streak continues...

Posted by CinemaPhreek Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 6:23 PM

comment #26

ScottMendelson Author Profile Page says ...

Crap, $411 million was the international total. My mistake, thank you CinemaPhreek for posting the correct number.

Posted by ScottMendelson Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 6:30 PM

comment #27

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Phreek: That's the domestic gross adjusted and unadjusted for inflation.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 6:40 PM

comment #28

saranie Author Profile Page says ...

I read this news and more comments on the forum page of the tall dating site Tallmeet.com, where many tall models, tall sportsmen and tall admirers flirting.

Posted by saranie Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 6:42 PM

comment #29

Josh Massey Author Profile Page says ...

So D.Z., $411 million is the gross "not adjusted for inflation," and $251 million is the gross "unadjusted for inflation."

Makes perfect D.Z. sense.

Posted by Josh Massey Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 7:08 PM

comment #30

ScottMendelson Author Profile Page says ...

To make this easy, in case it's needed/wanted.

$251 million - original 1989 domestic gross
$411 million - original 1989 international gross
$433 million - alleged adjusted for inflation domestic gross

Posted by ScottMendelson Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 7:55 PM

comment #31

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

What Scott said.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 9:13 PM

comment #32

Chase Kahn Author Profile Page says ...

Um, does anybody remember Batman Begins stretching to get $200 million? I have no doubt this will outgross the first one, but double it? Heavy hype among the Internet set doesn't equate with the general public.

That's very true, but it should be noted the state of the Batman franchise at the time that movie was released. I think a lot of people just didn't care about it at the time but over the few years of DVD watching and buzz surrounding the sequel...I don't know.

Plus, you can't count out the Heath Ledger factor. I know my sister (who hates Batman usually) is very excited to see THE DARK KNIGHT because of all the Heath Ledger news. I hate to say it, and the execs at Warner Bros. certainly won't, but it's like free advertising...

Posted by Chase Kahn Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 9:23 PM

comment #33

EDouglas Author Profile Page says ...

So it's selling advance tickets faster... that doesn't mean it's selling more tickets... it just means that they're selling more of them ahead of time rather than opening weekend. It's a very simple case of movietickets and fandango creating a feeding frenzy by overreporting the advance ticket sales and sell-outs.

Anyone who thinks this is going to make $150 million plus needs to have their heads examined... a quick comparison with Pirates 3 shows that it's tracking lower, especially among women, maybe because they have other alternatives i.e. Mamma Mia!

No movie has ever opened over $100 million with a single other movie opening against it. NOT ONE. That's not saying that Dark Knight can't be the first but it's hard to make Spider-Man 3 numbers when you can't fill every screen like that was able to do.

Dark Knight screens heavily in NYC tomorrow and you can see what some of the *real* critics say about it soon enough.

Posted by EDouglas Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 9:31 PM

comment #34

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

The problem with 'Begins' box office wasn't just that the Schumacher films [Someone should include Catwoman a year earlier, while they're at it.] ruined any interest in new installments, but that it also came out between the more anticipated Sith and WOTW. Oh yeah, and the marketing was dumb, since they were riding the entire film on Holmes, when it should have been Batman and the villains. In addition, the latter two characters barely get a mention in the ads, and they don't even mention that they're villains. Now, it seems to be the opposite problem, where they're riding the entire film on Ledger, when it should be the story, since most people already know who the Joker is by now.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 10:00 PM

comment #35

frankbooth Author Profile Page says ...

"...the marketing was dumb, since they were riding the entire film on Holmes."

Bizarre, if it's true. Or is this just typical D.Z. talk?

Posted by frankbooth Author Profile Page at July 14, 2008 11:51 PM

comment #36

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

frank: The trailers basically would have Batman riding around in something, with shots of Holmes' face, without any explanation of the plot.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 15, 2008 12:19 AM

comment #37

bents75 Author Profile Page says ...

Bullshit DZ. They did not sell that movie around Katie Holmes, if they included her at all it was simply to point out that there was in fact a woman and love interest in it, and they didn't showcase any of the villians because they were more than half of what made the Schumacher entries so bad.

They did what they should have, they stripped it to the bone and focused on what it was about, Batman, Batman, and more Batman.

And Catwoman shouldn't be brought at all. That movie was just a complete mess every step of the way. It was dead before it even arrived and everyone knew that. It came as no suprise.

Posted by bents75 Author Profile Page at July 15, 2008 6:19 AM

comment #38

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

bents: "They did not sell that movie around Katie Holmes, if they included her at all it was simply to point out that there was in fact a woman and love interest in it,"

Yes, and the trailers for the other movies emphasized the action and Gothic elements; so you're basically supporting my point.

"and they didn't showcase any of the villians because they were more than half of what made the Schumacher entries so bad."

The villains weren't the problem; Schumacher was the problem.

"They did what they should have, they stripped it to the bone and focused on what it was about, Batman, Batman, and more Batman."

If they did what they should have, then it would have been bigger that year.

"And Catwoman shouldn't be brought at all. That movie was just a complete mess every step of the way. It was dead before it even arrived and everyone knew that."

It was only in trouble when they showed Berry in that outfit. It could have worked out, though.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 15, 2008 9:42 AM

comment #39

frankbooth Author Profile Page says ...

Without any explanation of the plot? Yeah, that probably threw potential viewers off. Probably why it flopped so badly and they never made a sequel.

"So this dude in the bat suit...is he the good guy, or the bad guy? And why do I get the feeling I've seen this character somewhere before? Just what is this freaking movie ABOUT, anyway?! I'M SO CONFUUUUUUUUSED!!!"

Posted by frankbooth Author Profile Page at July 15, 2008 10:48 AM

comment #40

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

frank: It didn't flop, but it disappointed.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at July 15, 2008 11:57 AM

comment #41

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