Upcoming
August 27
August 29
Disaster Movie
My Mexican Shivah
September 3
The Pool
September 5
August Evening
Bangkok Dangerous
Save Me
Faint Omen?
One reason for the box-office death of Swing Vote last weekend was that under-35s constituted only 35% of the audience, according to Variety. I'd be willing to bet that the percentage of under-25s who went to Swing Vote was more like 15% or lower. The political content of the Costner film was made clear by trailers and TV ads, so it can be assumed this element dampened enthusiasm.
Which leads again to concerns about how politically-averse the middle American under-25s will be this November? Some of us suspect the election is going to be a squeaker with Obama winning by two or three points, maybe less. The margin of victory will of course depend on the turnout by African Americans, Hispanics, the liberal 18 to 24s, college-educated professionals, previously-Clinton-supporting women, etc. It's all about turnout, turnout, turnout.
I just wish there was a reason to feel better about the under-25 commitment levels, despite the '04 data that everyone's seen. What is the actual percentage of voting-eligible younger citizens who are expected to vote three months from now? 30-something per cent? You can't trust these guys.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on August 4, 2008 at 2:52 PM
comment #1
Scott Mendelson says ...
Relax. I've voted in every election, minor and major, since I turned 18 (I'm 28 now). I didn't see Swing Vote last weekend. I still intend to vote in November.
Posted by Scott Mendelson at August 4, 2008 3:56 PM
comment #2
nemo says ...
I'm over 50, and a presidential choice between Kelsey Grammer and Dennis Hopper would make me stay home.
Posted by nemo at August 4, 2008 4:01 PM
comment #3
D.Z. says ...
They should've released this one in the fall. It might have found a larger audience, since it'd be closer to Election Day.
Posted by D.Z. at August 4, 2008 4:08 PM
comment #4
Edward says ...
I made my choice at the box office and went to Hellboy II.
Posted by Edward at August 4, 2008 4:21 PM
comment #5
BurmaShave says ...
My best friend's parents, who like everything (WHAT HAPPENS IN VEGAS was his mom's favorite movie this summer...), saw this on Friday and hated it. Still, how does this not try for the LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE limited success run? If this were platfroming around the conventions it might have had a chance.
Posted by BurmaShave at August 4, 2008 4:57 PM
comment #6
tommysunshine says ...
Hollywood Elsewhere inspires honesty, the grail of truth is sought on this site.
As a McCain fan therefore permit me to admit how fantastic it would be if young people stayed away from the polling booths in droves. In time these slackers would grow up, pay bills, acquire mortgages and vote republican so they'd have a chance to catch up on their civic duty.
Posted by tommysunshine at August 4, 2008 5:41 PM
comment #7
MoisesChiu says ...
The biggest problem isn't turnout, it's getting them to register to vote at the moment. So many people in that age bracket are transient and haven't re-registered to vote in their new digs. These are people who will vote, they just haven't registered for whatever reason (usually because they don't know you have to).
Posted by MoisesChiu at August 4, 2008 7:45 PM
comment #8
Brian R says ...
Maybe it just wasn't a very good film?
Posted by Brian R at August 4, 2008 7:56 PM
comment #9
tommysunshine says ...
Hey so if enough adolescent Obamaramas can't be bothered to vote or don't know they have to register, maybe mccain might just win. At the risk of sounding like Beavis circa 1994: heh, heh,very cool.
Posted by tommysunshine at August 4, 2008 8:20 PM
comment #10
Mgmax says ...
Under-25s don't vote. It's a law of nature. Sorry, but if he's gonna win, he needs those lumpy old Hillary voters, as unhip as they may be.
As for Swing Vote, probably the worst time to release a typically toothless Hollywood political comedy is in the middle of an election that's actually pretty interesting on its own terms.
Posted by Mgmax at August 4, 2008 9:29 PM
comment #11
Richard_Stone says ...
I gave Swing Vote a try today and it sucked.
It doesn't have the balls to be the powerful political satire the premise hinders at, the family aspect of the story isn't cute nor interesting (the little girl character is just annoying), Costner's one-note acting doesn't sell his white trash character and isn't helped by lame editing and directing.
I was bored by the movie in the middle of the movie, but I was curious how they were going to end the thing, since they either had to show some political colors by getting Costner's character to vote and choose the president, or drop the ball. In the end, they dropped the ball in the lamest way. A kid, yes, a teenager, in the audience yelled "Bullshit!" as the titles rolled.
A missed opportunity, because the premise had potential.
Posted by Richard_Stone at August 4, 2008 9:47 PM
comment #12
C-PhreekII says ...
Unless you've seen a massive poll of young people that says different, assuming they would vote for Obama in droves is naive.
Last study I saw of voting trends in the younger set showed that they mostly mirrored their parents with little fluctuations decade to decade. That 60's myth that the younger set is a vast left majority apparently wasn't even true then. The only thing that is true is that young liberal voters tend to vote, wow, liberal.
Please tell me there's some great cinema coming this fall or we get to watch Wells talk himself ONTO the ledge week after week as he breathlessly follows each poll, his mood swinging with each one. Just like '04.
Unless Obama screw up big time or McCain goes Grade A negative, Obama has this in the bag. McCain just isn't motivating his base while Obama's people have learned all the best lessons from Karl Rove's playbook when it comes to getting wins where they count most. There's a sense of history being made that will get Obama's people to the polls that McCain can't match.
Posted by C-PhreekII at August 4, 2008 11:25 PM
comment #13
Mgmax says ...
Everybody talks about Karl Rove's playbook, yadda yadda.
You want to know what Karl Rove's great insight was? What the root of his success was? Realizing that voting and home ownership were correlated, so he chased new home owners in new suburbs and exurbs, figuring they were at the time of their life when they'd be most likely to take on new party affiliation.
You can talk ideology all night long, but marketing to people when they're in the right life stage is what makes sales-- regardless of what the message is, or who the messenger is.
Posted by Mgmax at August 5, 2008 6:17 AM
comment #14
Josh says ...
the left needs a boogeyman. they need someone to blame their losses on. turns out to be karl rove. good for him since it has made him millions. now half the country thinks hes the smartest man alive.
Posted by Josh at August 5, 2008 7:57 AM
comment #15
Bocephus says ...
Fuck you all. I've been voting since I turned 18, and each time I filled my car with all the under-25 voters I could fit.
Karl Rove my be one of the smartest...things in the room, but I wouldn't call him a man. Too close to the word HUman.
Posted by Bocephus at August 5, 2008 8:17 AM
comment #16
Richardson says ...
"The political content of the Costner film was made clear by trailers and TV ads"
did they? My theory as to why it failed: I watch a bunch of TV. I see a bunch of movies. I haven't seen a single ad for this movie that wasn't a poster on the subway. I didn't even see a poster in a movie theater.
I think it failed because they didn't market it heavily because it's a movie starring Kevin Costner (and, on top of that, if it does well, he gets a lot of that because he paid for the movie, so they have less motivation because they'll make less off of it even if it does well).
Posted by Richardson at August 5, 2008 8:35 AM
comment #17
D.Z. says ...
Phreek: Young people tend to vote for the person who's got their back. So given that Obama's the only candidate promising jobs, I imagine he should easily sweep with that demo.
Josh: Yes, I'm happy a guy made money while being an accomplice to treason.
Posted by D.Z. at August 5, 2008 9:52 AM
comment #18
BillRamsey says ...
yeah it's not good. it doesn't know what it wants to be -- costner is not believable as a redneck -- but at least it's not a fucking comic book movie made for 13 year olds. It's sad that it bombed because this country is getting stupider and stupider. Go see hellboy 3 and Iron Man 2, and whatever you want -- because that's the only choice you'll have next summer.
Posted by BillRamsey at August 5, 2008 10:12 AM
comment #19
bill weber says ...
The film has no actual politics in it whatsoever.
Posted by bill weber at August 5, 2008 10:45 AM
comment #20
Cadavra says ...
Under-25s didn't go because it apparently contains no explosions, farting, blow-job jokes or guys with capes.
Posted by Cadavra at August 5, 2008 10:56 AM
comment #21
Daviddb says ...
No one's mentioned the fact that this film cost just $21 million to make so it grossed nearly 1/3 of its budget opening weekend. Okay, it's not a blockbuster, but from what I understand, the budget was raised through pre-sales like last year's Mr. Brooks...which made about $50 million total and cost only $20m to produce...with the ancillary markets, Swing Vote will still do fine. How much money does The Mummy 3 have to make before it starts to turn a profit? That one cost almost $145 million + marketing...and it "only" grossed on a percentage basis of its budget, less than "Swing Vote".
Before anyone starts to affix the label of "bomb" on a movie solely based on its opening weekend gross, look more carefully at the "other" important number...the budget.
Posted by Daviddb at August 5, 2008 10:58 AM
comment #22
LYT says ...
When was the last time Costner starred in a movie that under-25s wanted to see? Waterworld?
Posted by LYT at August 5, 2008 1:29 PM
Post a comment