comment #1

BurmaShave says ...

www.270towin.com

wasted way too much time at work on this thing.

comment #2

JHRussell says ...

There will be no clear picture until the last 2 weeks before the election.

Right now, people are on vacation, watching the Olympics, or doing just about anything except focusing on this election.

We won't be "post" conventions for another month...let's see how the candidates handle the Veep selection...let's see how the conventions play out...and let's see how the debates go...

Right now, this link you have given is trying to make a science of the electoral map out of current polls...too early for that.

comment #3

R. Hunt says ...

That's an amazingly thorough site. I still think a lot of this is premature, though. And I'm surprised at McCain's numbers given his completely lackluster campaign and the longstanding conservative hatred of him. The big question is whether the conservative base will bite the bullet and support him or if some of them will simply choose to stay home. The recent items about Leiberman being his VP choice are (let's hope) just a bad joke....

comment #4

LYT says ...

I don't see how choosing Lieberman could possibly help McCain. His base would be mad at him for choosing a Democrat (and former gore running mate), and Dems who have been patient with Joe up until now would finally disown him.

comment #5

C-PhreekII says ...

Does anyone else have the phrase "classic clinical manic-depressive" pop into their heads reading these posts at HE?

comment #6

C-PhreekII says ...

Mark Nichols little 20/20 hindsight factoid detour is interesting in the abstract, but completely worthless because polling does not equal the popular vote. Now, if he wanted to make his case showing how this year's polling relates to polls conducted in the past at this point (ie, before both conventions) he might have had something. As it is, it's the mental masturbation of a journalist with nothing new to report.

comment #7

supertaster says ...

Look at all of the states south of PA> outside of Philly, that IS Pennsylvania...and unlike NY where the city and LI make up more than half the population, Philly is nary a tenth of PA's.

I'd be surprised if PA wasn't a very, very close call late into the night. Ohio is even more precarious for BO,

If those 21 (or 20) electoral votes go the other way, you're looking at 274 to 264. If that's the case (either PA or OH go red), McCain could pick up a Colorado or Nevada and pop the cap on the Geritol.

That 50 point margin of victory may seem big now, but it's nothing.

As you point out, there hasn't been a single debate. Going by the dem debate numbers, more than half of America hasn't seem Obama speak without a cue card...and that,s uh, trouble, uh, mmm, uh, mm, for, uh, Barack.

comment #8

Mgmax says ...

The most important stat I've seen is that there's a huge undecided block, much larger than normal. Yeah, solid McCain and solid Obama voters aren't going anywhere, but there's 30% in the middle who could easily sway it.

I say it's more likely than not that we'll have President Obama, but I wouldn't bet on anything until we've had a debate or two.

comment #9

lipranzer says ...

Jeff, it is not November yet. For those of us who are not voting for McCain, please do not tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing by saying Obama's going to win. I beg you.

comment #10

BurmaShave says ...

By the way, I just watched the video, and it doesn't help that the guy is a McPoyle brother. They couldn't have prepared him for television?

comment #11

EDouglas says ...

So looking at that, McCain should just quit right now and not bother to continue his campaign, eh?

comment #12

Mgmax says ...

Like Hillary should have quit winning primaries and bowed before the O.

comment #13

gruver1 says ...

Wells to Supertaster and C-PhreekII: I've tried banning you guys, and you keep coming back. One way or another, I'm going to figure a way to ban you and keep you banned. Because I detest whom you seem to be personally, because I hate the pettiness of your attacks and I despise the vibe you bring to your posts. There was to be some way to keep you out. On top of everything else you're too candy-ass to register with your personal e-mails so I can't even talk to you privately.

comment #14

C-PhreekII says ...

I've been banned again? Say it ain't so....

comment #15

Midwest Doug says ...

Nate Silver is a guru of baseball statistics and projections, cutting his teeth with Baseball Prospectus. He's a first class econometric nerd, and he knows his stuff. Interesting site.

comment #16

C-PhreekII says ...

Considering that the tone of posts from long time readers will inevitably follow from that of the blogger, to say "I detest whom you seem to be personally" is very interesting statement to make. You're also the only blogger I know who feels so threatened by these posts to actually go in and edit them.

It's pretty much the accepted rule if you invite comments, be sure to have a thick enough skin to deal with them. You're the one who took HE down this personal blog/"New Journalism" path. Stop being the thin skinned candy ass and deal with it.

I assumed TypeKey gave you access to emails, but of course its fairly easy to get extra ones of those for just this purpose. It pretty much speaks volumes that you want to ban posters who occasionally say mildly critical things (or call you on some bullshit) yet posters who hijack threads with inane chatter or off topic items are left to annoy everyone else.

comment #17

gruver1 says ...

Wells to Supertaster: You are a thorn, a repulsive asshole, and a snivelling coward. You call me disgusting, and yet you hang on to the hull of the ship like a barnacle. I am Humphrey Bogart, pulling the boat through the weeds, and you are a shiny black leech on my left shoulder blade. Have you told your parents about what a nagging and persistent insect you are? Oh, that's right...you're anonymous. Safer that way, right?

comment #18

C-PhreekII says ...

Super T - I think he's lumping you in with me simply because we both got banned at the same time. In Wells' defense, his Achilles heel and ban trigger is entirely centered on what he perceives to be personal attacks.

Here's what's really telling, go over to Poland's Hot Blog and check out some of the down right vicious hits he takes. Yet, he comes right back and answers them or simply ignores the more idiotic. Sure, the slams are almost entirely about his subject and not himself (although there were a few cheap shots when he got married - yet, again, he left them up) . However, that probably has alot to do with the fact Poland has not allowed either the Hot Blog or MCN in general to reach the level of navel gazing Hollywood Elsewhere has now reached.

comment #19

supertaster's mom says ...

"You're disgusting."

Now THAT brings back memories. You can have him Jeff, I'm done.

comment #20

C-PhreekIX says ...

Whoops! Banned again! I haven't been this insulted since that barista put out that second restraining order against me! (Which is silly since everyone could see that he could've kicked my ass).

comment #21

Suibne says ...

I believe Burma Shavre is on his thirtieth set of knee pads.

comment #22

George Prager says ...

delusions of grandeur or stalker or both. He claims to have a wife. Who would marry this sick fuck?

comment #23

supertaster says ...

Deleting portions of the thread to make yourself look good. Nice Wells. That barnacle up your ass or under your boat or whatever ridiculous metaphor you used where you compared yourself to Bogart ... oh fuck it, nothing I could say could top that. What a roar.

You used to be good. You're wrting used to be compelling. I guess that's why you're so obsessed with the 70s and why you had to reach aaaaallll the way back to "Right Face" as your last piece of honest work.

Every one of your loyal readers is leaving one by one...pretty soon all you'll have left are the Pragers.

Don't worry, you don't have to ban me again .... life is too short to spend it with someone who gives off as much negative energy as you.

comment #24

BurmaShave says ...

Suibne, that actually made more sense in the other thread.

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comment #27

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