comment #1

p.Vice says ...

I'm ready to die by your side, Wells. Fight to the last.

comment #2

iamjoe says ...

Great and dead on comparisons Jeff.

comment #3

cinefan says ...

I'd like to sign up to fight on Jeff's side. I'm already considering emigrating to another country if Palin is elected vice-president.

comment #4

Alec says ...

[Post deleted for the usual reasons, poster banned for same. Yawwwn....same-old Stalinist purging...business as usual at Hollywood Elsewhere.]

comment #5

EnglishBob says ...

I'm nervous about this election as well...but, remember, it IS just one election. I don't think a McCain/Palin presidency will make or break the nation.

comment #6

gruver1 says ...

Wells to English Bob: Wake up, for God's sake!

comment #7

NotImpressedYet says ...

Frankly, Palin scares me a lot more than McCain. I think right now McCain is completely pandering to the republican base and would govern a lot better than he's campaigning.

But man I hope Obama wins. His record $66M haul in August makes me feel a little better. And I think Palin's bounce will start to deflate soon. As stunned as I was by her repeatedly spouting that bullshit about the bridge to nowehere, it seems like people are starting to wake up to the fact that she essentially lied about it. What the Obama campaign needs to do is take that lie and all the other shady things McCain and Palin has said, and turn it into a larger message - that McCain and Palin are LIARS. Biden and all his other surrogates need to go strong on this.

comment #8

lehigh says ...

Also, the polls are starting to swing back the other direction.

The Obama campaign's more forceful tone, and the media's recognition that the McCain camp's lies are out of bounds for even hardball politics has made a dent in the palinmania.

Today's tracking polls:

Gallup McCain 47 - Obama 45 (McCain had been up by 7 or 8 midweek)

Rassmussen McCain 50 - Obama 47

Research 200 - Obama 47- McCain 45

Hotline - Obama 45 - McCain 43

I think Palin's miserable performance on ABC and the mountain of lies that are being revealed about her positions and experience will blunt her appeal beyond the base. She has energized the harcore base, who weren't thrilled with McCain. But, unless she just wallops Biden in the debate, I think the swing voters and independents will trickle back to Obama.

The Obama campaign should focus on McCain, and when asked about Palin, point out that she's extreme, and that most of what she and the campaign said about her when they rolled her out was false. [bridge to nowhere, earmarks, travel abroad]

comment #9

buster says ...

Bush-Palin Nation, I'm absolutely convinced, is a thoroughly rancid, racist, titanically clueless and revoltingly ignorant place

Except I know plenty of McCain voters who are smarter, more charismatic, thinner, better looking, more successful, more educated, who make a lot more money and are more creative than Jeff Wells. One guy started a community outreach and development program to help minorities in the Mantua area of Philadelphia. Another guy is is the supplier diversity champion at my company.

It's not Obama they don't like, it's the awful people who currently lead the Democratic party.

I've been committed to Obama for months, but I am now beginning to question how I can support the same candidate as people as spiteful, bitter, hateful, and ignorant as Jeff Wells. It frightens me that I might have anything in common with those who would rather bitch, moan, and try to shame people into voting their way than actually engaging the other side. If someone as ugly as Jeff Wells see qualities in Obama that he supports, then maybe I need to take a closer look at Obama.

comment #10

arturobandini2 says ...

Settle down, buster. Jeff's rancor isn't 1/10th as nasty as the shit coming from the other extreme. Hate speech is new for liberals, and to our credit, we still don't have total command of it yet.

As a Californian, I too resent that the red states we basically subsidize get to determine who governs us. (Apologies right now to Dems in those states -- I feel your pain, having been in your shoes.) Especially when they make political decisions based on personality and gossip rather than substance. Were the blue states to secede, those red states and their Jesus-humping politicians would inherit an economy even worse than the one we all have now. And yet, they don't care if they drag the rest of us into the sinkhole with them.

comment #11

D.Z. says ...

buster: "Except I know plenty of McCain voters who are smarter, more charismatic, thinner, better looking, more successful, more educated, who make a lot more money and are more creative than Jeff Wells."

If they're smart, they wouldn't be voting for McSame. As for everything else, well, it won't matter if the economy gets even worse under his administration.

comment #12

plastiqueelephant says ...

Well done Jeff, very strong analysis. Know how you feel, I could barely watch Guiliani on Meet the Press, I have such a bad feeling. But surely, while these lies may work in the short term, Obama/Plouffe are smart enough to make em pay in the run in. And surely Obama will be better for it if he wins it in a dogfight than a coronation...

For those who say, who cares... I say what are you smoking? Friends businesses are shutting down cause of the economy, deaths in Iraq, global warming becoming time critical, potential conflicts with Russia and Iran with a McCain administration, Roe vs. Wade... strikes me these will have a direct impact on lives everywhere.

comment #13

frankbooth says ...

I hope that people like lehigh are right. It's still early, Obama has tons of money for attack ads, and Bob Shrum is not involved in the campaign.

On the other hand, if you're looking for an excuse to drink heavily, meet the American voter:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZjfGyQPSwg&feature=related

comment #14

Jay says ...

When I was young, I used to think Abraham Lincoln was a hero for the great sacrifice of lives he inspired in order to preserve the union. The last three elections make me think he was a god damned fool for considering the South worth keeping. We should have done a population swap at that time. All Red Staters head South, all Blue state types - come up north. If a future candidate runs on a pro-secession platform, they have my vote.

comment #15

Jack Price says ...

Bush-Palin Country's latest treasure...

http://www.truveo.com/Evangelical-Baby-Preacher/id/1370710690

comment #16

MovieBob says ...

"If you are a candidate with a Harvard law degree, you are an elitist who's out of touch with the real America. if you are a legacy (dad and granddad were admirals) graduate of Annapolis, with multiple disciplinary infractions, you are a hero."

Here's a good case study in how people not directly involved in politics but who treat "the game" as all-or-nothing warfare ruin their own arguments.

The rest of the list is striking, point-by-point, factual and overall pretty damning and hard to challenge. But the "hero" crack whilst omitting the reason WHY McCain has been walking around with that moniker and expecting it to work just like all the other examples - as though anyone who would get anything else out of the list doesn't notice that it's missing - is just breathtakingly dense. It's like rolling your eyes at Obama and going "yeah, like HE knows anything about prejudice!"

My advice, Wells: Cheer up. Yeah, Obama should be twenty to fifty points ahead in every poll and right now it looks pretty likely he could lose. That's the bad news. The GOOD NEWS is that the Republicans were initially so terrified that Democrats had gotten their act together and would actually nominate the candidate who could WIN (what was her name again? ;) ) that they blinked and sent Moderate, Dem-friendly McCain up. Lucky break... it could be a toolbox like ROMNEY benefitting from Obama's inability to seal the deal.

comment #17

SpinDozer says ...

Jeff:

BO told us in his acceptance speech that the GOP would be talkin' change in their convention. He's the smartest and most talented candidate to lead the Democrats in the election since Clinton, maybe since FDR.

That doesn't mean he can't lose, but Sept 14th polls within the margin of error, less than 10 days after the convention are no reason to panic. Chill out!

Heading into the primaries, we knew that 1)BO would face racism & 2) that we live in a country where 62 million assholes/morons voted for Bush in 2004: I am convinced that if there was ever a man to overcome these challenges, it is Obama.

If the situation is unchanged on Oct. 21st, feel free to convert and start a Novena, miracles are only possible in a time of real need.

comment #18

lehigh says ...

looks like mccain has peaked:

Overall, the landscape has not changed very much since the Republican convention – we’re just collecting different evidence about where the bounce might or might not be in different states. Arguably, however, there are a few signs that McCain is beginning to come off his peaks. Between the four national tracking polls, McCain now leads by an average of just 0.25 points, his smallest margin since the convention.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/todays-polls-914.html

comment #19

quintus arrius says ...

"I'm so scared about what's going on right now with the national polls that I'm afraid to look at them. I'm living in a fetal tuck position,"

Now THERE'S the party I want to put in power.

Quit swinging so bipolarly from Obamessianism to Gotterdammerung. The race evened up, the financial markets are about to implode, the debates are ahead. Either the people's one true god will make McCain look clueless and old, or Old Hand John will make Obama look clueless and green. (I take it for granted that Palin will make Biden look like a pompous blowhard.) Their fate's in their own hands, the test is ahead and we'll all know the right answer in our hearts when we see it, even if we would never admit it here.

comment #20

dinther says ...

This post was spot-on.

I would only take exception to the reference to divided states - if Wells was referring to the typical "red/blue state" generalization.

Hailing originally from a stark-red midwestern state, I hear from a lot of people there who remind me that things are not as dire as some would have us believe. Yes, there are the obnoxious simpletons who react to the economic downturn by saying that "hey, it's not as bad as the Great Depression," but there are is a growing number of people in these states who realize that they're being schtupped. These are middle class people who maybe didn't finish college due to their economic circumstances, who have families and respectable, wage-earning jobs, and who pay attention. As my brother has said to me: "We may not have college degrees, but we're not stupid."

So, in this dark-red state, at caucus time there unprecedented hordes of people attending democratic caucuses. New democrats who had seen 8 years of Republican policies and got it.

And the result: Nationally, there are an estimated 12 million more registered Democratic voters than their are Republicans. The polls, which ordinarily draw from the same number of Republicans and Democrats, don't reflect this disparity. Which is why having boots on the ground, and voter registration drives, are crucial to the success of any candidate (e.g., it is why Bush won in 2004). Turnout is everything.

comment #21

quintus arrius says ...

"The polls, which ordinarily draw from the same number of Republicans and Democrats, don't reflect this disparity."

Nonsense.

Every pollster has some complex algorithm (no Al Gore pun intended) for weighting by party (and other factors). They also measure different things (registered voters, likely voters, etc.) The people who bat the numbers around as if they were all interchangeable might as well be talking about 50 pesos being better than 49 dollars.

"Turnout is everything."

That, certainly, is true, at least in races that are at all close.

comment #22

Richardson says ...

"Every pollster has some complex algorithm (no Al Gore pun intended) for weighting by party (and other factors)"

That's true but, as noted above, the algorithms tend to be based on the previous election, because of the mantra 'You never what will happen next'. They don't factor in 12 million newly registered voters, because they can't be sure the newly registered voters will vote.

I don't see how you can deny that. I do see, however, that all it means is "We'll only know on Election Day;" I don't know whether it will ultimately benefit the Democrats any more than you or dinther does.

comment #23

SpinDozer says ...

By the by...

The polls reflected the early success of her strategy. In the three days after Palin joined Team McCain--Aug. 29-31--32 percent of voters told the pollsters at Diageo/Hotline that they had a favorable opinion of her; most (48 percent) didn't know enough to say. By Sept. 4, however, 43 percent of Diageo/Hotline respondents approved of Palin with only 25 percent disapproving--an 18-point split. Apparently, voters were liking what they were hearing. Four days later, Palin's approval rating had climbed to 47 percent (+17), and by Sept. 13 it had hit 52 percent. The gap at that point between her favorable and unfavorable numbers--22 percent--was larger than either McCain's (+20) or Obama's (+13).

But then a funny thing happened: Palin lost some of her luster. Since Sept. 13, Palin's unfavorables have climbed from 30 percent to 36 percent. Meanwhile, her favorables have slipped from 52 percent to 48 percent. That's a three-day net swing of -10 points, and it leaves her in the Sept. 15 Diageo/Hotline tracking poll with the smallest favorability split (+10) of any of the Final Four. Over the course of a single weekend, in other words, Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least.

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/16/palin-s-favorability-ratings-begin-to-falter.aspx

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