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These troubled and fearful thoughts from the Guardian's Jonathan Freedland about how things seem to be turning in the polling are on my mind also, although I was somewhat placated by Gail Collins' analysis in yesterday's N.Y. Times. Make that slightly.

"More troubling was the ABC News-Washington Post survey which found McCain ahead among white women by 53% to 41%," Freedland notes. "Two weeks ago, Obama had a 15% lead among women. There is only one explanation for that turnaround, and it was not McCain's tranquillizer of a convention speech: Obama's lead has been crushed by the Palin bounce."

I have one thoughtful but foolish hope in my head right now. If the pro-Obama youth vote comes out in huge numbers, the current dire expectations created by likely voter polls (i.e., a reading of mostly-older voters who voted in '04 or '00) will be forgotten. The pollsters always say that you can't call much less measure the under-25s because many if not most of them don't have land lines. There could be this whole uncharted opinion-base out there that pollsters aren't even calibrating.

Except the realist in my chest knows deep down that the under-25 Generation of Shame is probably going to stay home in sufficient numbers so that their greatest potential impact may not be felt. It would be glorious, of course, if this turned out not to be true, but those two American Teen costars -- Colin Clemens and Jake Tusing, both about 20 -- bummed me out to no end when they said they wouldn't be voting this November and that they couldn't care less.

The only antidote I can think of is that last night I asked Lovely Still director Nik Fakler, who lives in Omaha, if he and his friends are voting, and he said "of course!" I told him what Clemens and Tusing had said and he smiled, threw his head back and went, "Oh, God!"

Another Encouraging Note: MSNBC's First Read guys wrote this morning that "in the past 12 hours, we now have new polls for seven battleground states. CNN/Time has Obama up in the blue states of Michigan (49%-45%) and New Hampshire (51%-45%), while McCain is up in the red states of Missouri (50%-45%) and Virginia (50%-46%). And Quinnipiac finds Obama ahead in Ohio (49%-44%) and Pennsylvania (48%-45%), and McCain in front in Florida (50%-43%). Indeed, with the exception of Ohio -- and that is BIG exception -- these polls suggest that the current map looks a lot like it did in '04."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on September 11, 2008 at 11:17 AM

comment #1

sardine says ...

Obama will win. cheer up, jeff.

Posted by sardine at September 11, 2008 11:49 AM

comment #2

dangovich says ...

Sarah Palin's favorability ratings, high as they are now, have only one place to go, and that's down.

Posted by dangovich at September 11, 2008 11:55 AM

comment #3

Chris D. says ...

Relax, Jeff. Help is on the way. My sophomore daughter is going to New Hampshire to register "youts"to vote.

Posted by Chris D. at September 11, 2008 11:56 AM

comment #4

Michael says ...

It doesn't help him when Obama is campaigning against the oppo VP...someone needs to quarrantine him from the Palin virus that's going around over there...

Posted by Michael at September 11, 2008 12:16 PM

comment #5

115thDreamer says ...

I am already hoping for heavy snow in the Midwest on 11/4, so that alot of the old people will choose to stay home. I am from Ohio, and my dear mother, who's still there, was telling me just last night of a relative of ours (older white woman) who whispered to her that she "just didn't trust" Obama, which sounds a lot like "I just don't know enough about him" or any of the other code for "I'm not comfortable voting for a black guy".

But Dangovich is right - the perception of Palin only has one way to go - down. People love a fresh new face, but people also have short attention spans and get bored easily - the current buzz can't last two months - no way. I think (or at least I hope) that a lot of people will eventually have that Homer Simpson moment ("Marge, change the channel...") and move onto another cause/issue that grabs their attention.

Another thing to cheer you up, Jeff, is that there are, evidently, roughly 11M more registered Democrats than Republicans at the moment. Also, not only cell-phone-only Dems are being left out of pollings, but some polls are also done on Friday/Saturday evenings, so that's going to exclude more Democrats than Republicans, I'd think. This Friday, for instance, the Dems will be out seeing 'Burn After Reading' or trying to pick up some hot ass down at the local coffeehouse and/or microbrewery, while the Republicans will be at home watching "Ghost Whisperer" or whatever the fuck they watch now that "Touched By An Angel" isn't on anymore.

Posted by 115thDreamer at September 11, 2008 12:20 PM

comment #6

MovieBob says ...

So...

Do you miss Hillary yet?

Posted by MovieBob at September 11, 2008 12:37 PM

comment #7

dp4m says ...

Also remember that when you say "but some polls are also done on Friday/Saturday evenings, so that's going to exclude more Democrats than Republicans, I'd think." it implies "Jews = Democrats." ;)

Posted by dp4m at September 11, 2008 12:39 PM

comment #8

DarthCorleone says ...

Omaha is an interesting place to be voting as well. I read somewhere there's an outside shot that Obama could win that particular district and split the Electoral College vote for Nebraska.

Posted by DarthCorleone at September 11, 2008 12:40 PM

comment #9

DarthCorleone says ...

Question: has anyone here ever been selected for one of these publicized Presidential polls, or do you know anyone who has? The answer is "no" on both counts for me. Do you happen to know the means by which the pollster obtained your phone number? I'm just curious.

Back in 2004 I still had a landline. That was also the year I finally gave in and bought a cellphone. Since the beginning of 2005 I've been strictly cellphone. I imagine I can't be the only one following that trend.

Posted by DarthCorleone at September 11, 2008 12:45 PM

comment #10

pdxfilmfan says ...

Jeff, I too had been "angsty" about developments in the race this week. But I agree with dangovich, Palin's ratings can only go down. I really do think this is the bounce from the RNC convention and the Palin selection. Everyone was so surprised by the success of both, that it has dominated the news cycle. Once this passes (and it will), I believe things will swing in Obama's direction.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I agree with Karl Rove. The Obama camp should not be attacking Palin. He needs to stay focused on McCain. If the McCain camp ever lets her do an interview with a respectable journalist (sorry, but does anyone expect anything other than a "puff" piece by Charlie Gibson), she will be asked the tough follow up questions and voters will learn about her views.

Finally, I hope this week inspires Democrats to get up and do something about the election. Rather than fret and whine, we need to hit the streets and start knocking on doors. For the first time in my life, I will be canvassing this weekend.

Posted by pdxfilmfan at September 11, 2008 12:46 PM

comment #11

JoeBuck says ...

Don't give up hope Jeff. The election date is still a long ways to go (2 months) so anything could happen between now and then. Just wait till Pailin gets trounced by Biden in the VP debate.

Posted by JoeBuck at September 11, 2008 12:49 PM

comment #12

JapAdapters says ...

I found this interesting: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/09/palin_doesnt_matter_numbers_do.html

Posted by JapAdapters at September 11, 2008 12:56 PM

comment #13

rr3333 says ...

Eventually, the Palin choice will doom McCain.

How can anyone pick as their VP someone who has never even VISITED Europe in her lifetime!??!?!

Posted by rr3333 at September 11, 2008 1:29 PM

comment #14

George Prager says ...

The feeble old man couldn't even go to Ground Zero without his nurse/wife. Is she going to sit in on cabinet meetings?

Posted by George Prager at September 11, 2008 1:48 PM

comment #15

Richardson says ...

"Also remember that when you say "but some polls are also done on Friday/Saturday evenings, so that's going to exclude more Democrats than Republicans, I'd think." it implies "Jews = Democrats.""

I thought it implied that Democrats were younger people who, as a rule based solely on age, would go out on Friday night more often. The same reason that television shows on Friday night tend to pursue an older audience.

Posted by Richardson at September 11, 2008 2:06 PM

comment #16

NC Gary says ...

Foolish? prediction:

McCain wins the popular vote (by about 1.5 million) while Obama narrowly wins Pennsylvania, giving him the 270 Electoral College votes he needs to become our 44th President. Not the way I want to win, but I'll take it.

Posted by NC Gary at September 11, 2008 2:48 PM

comment #17

dangovich says ...

Also, isn't it true historically that the VP choice has little impact on the election? And that's another reason why Obama should focus on McCain.

Posted by dangovich at September 11, 2008 3:01 PM

comment #18

Hickenlooper says ...

Ours is a country obsessed with the cult of personality. Personality over substance. This is obvious. Look at popular culture. Consequently, it will make it extremely difficult for Obama to overcome and rebound from the cynical choice of Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket. I am still casting my vote for Obama but I fear he will end up being the Dukakis of this election cycle. We could end up having a repeat of 1988 with McCain winning and being a one term president who inherits a bad economy. Then what ? Lady Macbeth and the witches couldn't fortell it any better. McCain out in four with Hilary Clinton standing in the wings and winning in 2012. Stay tune...

Posted by Hickenlooper at September 11, 2008 3:32 PM

comment #19

George Prager says ...

I think McCain will perform badly in the debates. He'll make Gerald Ford look good.

Posted by George Prager at September 11, 2008 3:53 PM

comment #20

Richardson says ...

Hickenlooper - I'm hanging on to the hope that a vice presidential candidate who so completely overshadows the presidential candidate will ultimately not work.

I mean, it's never happened before. The problem is, I don't think it's ever been *attempted* before, so I'm not sure whether it's valid to say it's unprecedented if it's never been tried.

Posted by Richardson at September 11, 2008 6:18 PM

comment #21

D.Z. says ...

"Except the realist in my chest knows deep down that the under-25 Generation of Shame is probably going to stay home in sufficient numbers so that their greatest potential impact may not be felt. It would be glorious, of course, if this turned out not to be true, but those two American Teen costars -- Colin Clemens and Jake Tusing, both about 20 -- bummed me out to no end when they said they wouldn't be voting this November and that they couldn't care less."

Believe me, Jeff. Clemens and Tusing don't reflect the average American young adult. They're just able to say that, because they got an shortcut to stardom, but most of are screwed, when it comes to economic opportunity, and not likely to vote for the guy who thinks taking away our jobs is a good thing.

dp4m: "it implies "Jews = Democrats." ;)"

I think it implies that Dems have more social lives than Republicans.

Hickenlooper: "Ours is a country obsessed with the cult of personality. Personality over substance. This is obvious. Look at popular culture. Consequently, it will make it extremely difficult for Obama to overcome and rebound from the cynical choice of Sarah Palin to the GOP ticket. I am still casting my vote for Obama but I fear he will end up being the Dukakis of this election cycle. We could end up having a repeat of 1988 with McCain winning and being a one term president who inherits a bad economy."

Shouldn't Obama win the Cult of Personality grudge match in the end, though? I mean, making speeches is different from debating.

Posted by D.Z. at September 11, 2008 6:46 PM

comment #22

The Hoyk says ...

If it hasn't already been sent to you, this needs to hang on your office wall until Election Day:

http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/political-pictures-barack-obama-chill-out-got-this.jpg

Posted by The Hoyk at September 11, 2008 8:59 PM

comment #23

MovieBob says ...

Hickenlooper-

McCain could put in the best presidential term in modern history and it's still only going to be one term - it's the worst kept secret of his campaign.

McCain wants in for one term, partially out of vendetta against being unfairly denied in 2000 but at this point mainly to "finesse" an end to the Iraq war that minimizes the crippling damage it would otherwise do to the Republicans. If he gets this wish, he won't run for a second term and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Palin opt out of stepping in to "spend more time with her family."

Either way, yeah... Hillary will be President in 2012 (which means that Bill will be on the Supreme Court by 2013 at the earliest.)

Posted by MovieBob at September 12, 2008 12:43 AM

comment #24

Markj74 says ...

A vice president who didn't own a passport until last year?

Insane.

Posted by Markj74 at September 12, 2008 3:08 AM

comment #25

TheJERMSguy says ...

I think everyone's forgetting how little the Vice President has done until Cheney. Gore, Quayle, Bush, Mondale, etc., did the occasional diplomatic things, visit small countries, cut ribbons in front of new govt buildings, etc., but Cheney's the one who transformed what a VP could do, thanks to Bush relying too much on his "experience."

Looking at the state by state maps, McCain needs to keep Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada to win, and it's looking precarious. The suspense in this campaign is which camp is going to have the October surprise.

Posted by TheJERMSguy at September 12, 2008 6:23 AM

comment #26

Josh says ...

Hillary couldn't even win this yr when they practically handed it to her. Her unfavorables get worse each day and shes going to win in 2012???
lol
she couldnt beat Sarah Palin right now or in 4 yrs.

Posted by Josh at September 12, 2008 7:47 AM

comment #27

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