Wind Shift

Things are shifting in Obama's favor, poll-wise. As MSNBC's "First Read" noted this morning, "After the news of the crisis on Wall Street, McCain's 'the fundamentals of our economy are strong' stumble on Monday, the slip-ups yesterday by McCain's two biggest economic surrogates and four days of sustained TV ad and email blasts by the Obama campaign and the DNC, the political worm seems to have turned a tad since the Palin bounce."

And yet the results of recent battleground polls are mixed, and the fivethirtyeight.com state-by-state count is favoring McCain.

"A tight race?," fivethirtyeight's Nate Silver wrote this morning. "It certainly is a tight race, and has been all year. But this, of course, is not really the lead story. The story is that there has been a rather dramatic shift in the national polling toward Barack Obama in the past 2-4 days, coinciding with the Wall Street financial crisis.

"Some pundits will love this, since it gives them something fresh to talk about. But others, like those cynical beat writers in the Wrigley Field press box, will be annoyed, because it means that the the story they were telling us just a few days ago -- that the Obama campaign was in trouble, that Sarah Palin was the greatest thing since sliced bread -- has now been more or less invalidated."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on September 18, 2008 at 1:46 AM

comment #1

tjfar67 Author Profile Page says ...

I hope I am wrong but.....
I have the feeling the polls will bounce back and forth and Obama will win the popular vote, but loses on electorial votes.

Hopefully, there is not a repeat of 2000 were some key state has some shady dealings going with how the votes are counted.

Also, I feel the media shouldn't be allowed to call the election until all the polls are closed.

Posted by tjfar67 Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 5:39 AM

comment #2

buster Author Profile Page says ...

You're a laughing stock, you don't know how to read polls any better than you can predict box office. You are so manic with this stuff it's hilarious.

And if you're going to ban people you really need to figure out a way to ban them, you know, forever.

Jeffrey, has the botox gone to your brain??

I think other readers here will vouch that I have established myself as an Obama supporter, and yet simply on account of suggesting you be more constructive and spend less time stewing in your hatred, you label me as one of the bad guys. I want to see Obama win, I'm not allowed to say that certain behaviors by other Obama supporters might be deleterious towards his chances???

Unlike you, I have conversations with people, actively promote him as a candidate, and have persuaded dozens that he is the right man. What have you done? You rant about McCain and Palin to stir up traffic, there's nothing noble about that, there's nothing even laudatory. You are, quite simply, a whore. You are Tartuffe.

What the fuck is wrong with you? Are you so shell-shocked from your botched cosmetic enhancements that you can not tolerate even the slightest difference in opinion??

You are one of the ugliest people I have ever come across. Inside and out. If I ever see you slumming it in Brooklyn, I will spit in your face. As much as I have tried to persuade people here to remain civil, that the best way to change people's minds is by showing them you respect them, you are irredeemable, and I wouldn't hesitate to spit in your bigoted, miserable, ugly face.

If Obama is red, then you are green. If he is hope, then you are despair. If he is good, then you are evil. You are the diametric opposite of everything he is and stands for. You are a despicable human being and a coward.

Posted by buster Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 6:59 AM

comment #3

Ogami Itto Author Profile Page says ...

Bye, buster.

Posted by Ogami Itto Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 7:06 AM

comment #4

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Man, when I said the economy would get worse enough for Obama to win, even I didn't imagine it would be this bad. So are any apologists gonna start defending the situation now?

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 7:13 AM

comment #5

Krazy Eyes Author Profile Page says ...

So are any apologists gonna start defending the situation now?

I can get a much better price on stocks I want to buy now than I could a year or two ago.

Posted by Krazy Eyes Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 7:15 AM

comment #6

sardine Author Profile Page says ...

Obama's back. He will win.

Buster, Jeff is passionate....he want the right man to win: OBAMA!

Posted by sardine Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 7:21 AM

comment #7

TL Author Profile Page says ...

Jeff, can I make a recommendation? Go to my.barackobama.com, set up an account, and start making phone calls to undecided voters. Skip a screening and/or blog post once a week for the next 6 weeks and do something that will make a difference. Kick in $100 too while you're at it. You'll feel better because you'll actually be *involved* instead of just reacting to the daily ups and downs of the polls.

Posted by TL Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 7:22 AM

comment #8

Chapman Carruthers Author Profile Page says ...

The aftermath of the Stalinistic purge has given us fewer asshole 'publicans, but bigger assholes. I never thought I would long for the days of Madmax and Walter Shoback. Jeff, it's like you took a course of antibiotics but stopped a day short and now you're left with an even more virulent strain of bacteria.

Posted by Chapman Carruthers Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 8:01 AM

comment #9

iamwhoiam Author Profile Page says ...

Close polls always translate to right wing actual win. It always been like that, all over the world. Obama should have led by 15 points right now. It's ridiculous that this race is even tied, and unless something radical happens, it means a win for McCain/Palin, who may make me miss Bush.

Posted by iamwhoiam Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 8:30 AM

comment #10

MariaMaria Author Profile Page says ...

iamwhoiam, conventional wisdom has not been right once this election cycle.

What polls? When were they taken? What is close? Please support your conclusion re:polls, especially when most pollsters disagree with you.

We just came out of the closest convention scheduling ever, with the most shortened cycle. Evidence from the past does not necessarily predict the future.

It is no longer a 15% lead country; it probably will never be again.

Posted by MariaMaria Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 8:56 AM

comment #11

mizerock Author Profile Page says ...

If only Nader weren't running, Obama would have the election locked up...

Nader IS still running, right?

Posted by mizerock Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 9:04 AM

comment #12

sardine Author Profile Page says ...

TL is right on the money!

Posted by sardine Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 9:15 AM

comment #13

Jake Author Profile Page says ...

The reality is that most people treat an election as if it were a football game. It's not about voting for the best qualified candidate- it's about voting for your "team"...no matter what.

It may be a photo finish, but Obama will win. Hardly anyone could generate much enthusiasm for Gore or Kerry, and look how close those jokers came to winning.

Posted by Jake Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 9:55 AM

comment #14

dangovich Author Profile Page says ...

What's with all the spitting, buster? What are you so angry about? Don't worry, there will be other Republican candidates you can blindly follow.

Posted by dangovich Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 10:02 AM

comment #15

Richardson Author Profile Page says ...

mizerock - Nader is running, but so is Bob Barr (who will draw some of the fiscal conservatives that hate Palin even more than McCain), and, in some states, Ron Paul.

I don't think either of them will pull Perot numbers, but they'll help off-set any Nader effect.

Posted by Richardson Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 10:05 AM

comment #16

TL Author Profile Page says ...

The reality is that most people treat an election as if it were a football game. It's not about voting for the best qualified candidate- it's about voting for your "team"...no matter what.

This is true, and was driven home to me when I met with a couple guys who were big donors/fundraisers for Bush/Cheney '00 and '04. Other than Bush keeping their taxes low, weren't particularly ideological. They totally were not into McCain. But the GOP is their "team," and their sticking with it.

Posted by TL Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 11:11 AM

comment #17

shanana Author Profile Page says ...

"Hardly anyone could generate much enthusiasm for Gore or Kerry, and look how close those jokers came to winning."

Yeah, Al Gore, what a joker, no substance at all. Could you imagine where our country would be if he where the President for the past eight years? Terrifying.

Posted by shanana Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 11:37 AM

comment #18

Jake Author Profile Page says ...

"Yeah, Al Gore, what a joker, no substance at all. Could you imagine where our country would be if he where the President for the past eight years? Terrifying."

I thought both would've been a better pick at the time. But it doesn't change the fact that they were largely perceived as dull candidates.

Posted by Jake Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 1:16 PM

comment #19

joncro Author Profile Page says ...

You can get a much better price on stocks you want to buy now than you could a day or two ago.

Posted by joncro Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 1:37 PM

comment #20

Chicago48 Author Profile Page says ...

Nobody knows nothing until after the debates. Prediction: McC comes off as senile and old. Obama as fresh.


Posted by Chicago48 Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 1:49 PM

comment #21

shanana Author Profile Page says ...

Your right Jake, people perceived them as dull and that's what depresses me so much. Either one of those candidates would've been a better President than the one we have now. Instead, Al Gore is perceived as "testy" because he sighs at Bush's evasive answer during the debates.

Posted by shanana Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 5:43 PM

comment #22

buster Author Profile Page says ...

What's with all the spitting, buster? What are you so angry about? Don't worry, there will be other Republican candidates you can blindly follow.

That's brilliant ... because I think Jeff Wells is a scum bag hypocrite who doesn't simply hat Republicans but anyone who disagrees with him,, that makes me a Republican? God help this country if people with your logic get into office.

You are so caught up in your own bullshit that you don't can't tell the difference between the enemy and your own team. You're just happy to fire away blindly like Marines in Haditha.

This all started becuase I tried to shake Jeff up and get him to start posting more pro-Obabamstuff and less anti-McCain stuff. To "create" instead of "destroy". Is that so wrong??? Well it got me banned and labeled a McCain supporter. Surprise, surprise, some astute commenters here react just as hastily.

I am an Obama supporter, are you telling me that when I see other Obama supporters behaving badly or falling short of all they can to help him win I should stand idly by? Fuck that. If you're truly passionate then you would agree that it's not enough to simply fight those supporting and campaigning for McCain, that we should challenge each other to channel our energy towards productive ends.

This is the most depressing place on the internet.

Posted by buster Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 6:55 PM

comment #23

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Krazy Eyes: "I can get a much better price on stocks I want to buy now than I could a year or two ago."

And how long will it take for them to actually be worth anything?

iam: "Obama should have led by 15 points right now."

Well, the remainder of fence-sitters are waiting to give Johnny a chance to come up with a good excuse and/or lie out of this mess.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 8:12 PM

comment #24

shanana Author Profile Page says ...

I'm not on anyone's "team" Buster, you're a loser, straight up. If we choose to attack McCain instead of "build up" Obama, that's our choice. You don't like it beat it, this ain't the town square, this is Wells' blood, sweat and tears. Quite frankly, if some dingbat fence-sitter somehow shows up wanting to talk movies, but is "turned off" by the negative postings about McCain on this site, I would have to wonder how one would get their head so far up their ass as to not be aware of all the negative blogging occuring, right now, on every news site around the country.

I don't need anyone telling me how I should or should not behave as an Obama supporter. Your not doing Wells a favor, just annoying the rest of us with your shrill, hyperbolic venom, and your faint little justifications on how our trying to better the rest of us. Your not my mom, your not morality, your nobody, just like the rest of us. Now, go kill yourself.

Posted by shanana Author Profile Page at September 18, 2008 9:46 PM

comment #25

buster Author Profile Page says ...

shanana ... i'm talking about actually putting energy into something productive instead of bitching and moaning and doing nothing to garner a single extra vote.

Straight up, yo.

Posted by buster Author Profile Page at September 19, 2008 4:18 PM

comment #26

shanana Author Profile Page says ...

Don't kid yourself, you could bitch and moan with the best of 'em. Besides, it's not Jeff's job to get Barack elected. He posts what he feels, it's his site, you don't like it, get lost. Your not doing anything positive here, you're not helping him, or the other posters, or me. So please spare us the self-righteous indignation bullshit routine.

You wouldn't know what straight was if you were dating it.

Posted by shanana Author Profile Page at September 20, 2008 9:51 PM

comment #27

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