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A Gold Watch Oscar?
In Contention's Kris Tapley has laid out a logical-sounding scenario by which Clint Eastwood could nab a Best Actor Oscar nomination and perhaps even the award itself for his swan-song performance in Gran Torino. Here it is along with my comments:
"Of the contenders most anticipate to be in play, only Sean Penn's portrayal of Harvey Milk has the on-paper swagger, while Leonardo DiCaprio (despite generating considerable heat -- I've heard one person say "it's one of the best performances I've ever seen") could spoil the party if he can push past the pretty-boy image that fellow hopeful Brad Pitt will face." Wells comment: Not having seen Milk, Revolutionary Road or The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, I can buy into the idea of Eastwood landing a swan-song Best Actor nomination. But because his Gran Torino performance appears (to go by the trailer) to be a snarly old-guy reiteration of a very familiar persona, a voice is telling me he'll probably wind up third or fourth in the pecking order, at best. If a nomination happens, of course.
"Mickey Rourke is the odds-on favorite heading into November for a nomination, but despite the brilliance of the performance and the film, there is the sense that the nod will be the reward. An Indie Spirit Award is probably in the cards, and if so, promises to be the usual kiss of death." Wells comment: "Kiss of death" bequeathed by winning an Indie Spirit?
"Frank Langella, to round out my own predicted five, faces an uphill battle in gaining an Oscar to go along with his Tony for the same performance. Even with plenty of positive assessments, the potential to underwhelm is out there, in the open, and waiting to keep Frost/Nixon an also ran in multiple areas." Wells comment: If Academy members subscribe to the idea that at least one of the five Best Actor nominees should ideally go to a gray-haired veteran, it may come down to Langella vs. Eastwood with the deciding factor not just "how do they compare?" but mainly "how good are the films?"
"Benicio Del Toro could be a real threat if the film finds the traction necessary to move into serious play, but it probably won't be the event that Eastwood's effort will be. And the only other performance that really shouts for attention is Josh Brolin's work in W, a film that could be yesterday's news sooner than later." Wells comment: As lived-in and organically believable as Del Toro's Che Guervara is in Steven Soderbergh's epic, it's not a histrionic, soul-baring, feel-my-pain Academy "performance" and probably won't even calculate with most Academy members. Brolin is aurally and behaviorally perfect in W. but not in a way that's likely to sir Best Actor talk. The general consensus, unfair and unperceptive in my view, is that the movie isn't raging or urgent or powerhouse enough to propel Brolin or any of the other cast members into being talked up.
"The film will be emotional, and given the particulars of the script, the portrayal is sure to prove heartbreaking. It could be the stiff upper lip of an awards season that finds itself competing with the election year, a note of hope and even a demand for sacrifice." Wells comment: 100% agreement.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 24, 2008 at 11:32 AM
Essentials
comment #1
actionman
says ...
If Del Toro couldn't get a nom last year based on his searing work in Things We Lost in the Fire, I don't think it's going to happen with a film like Che. Granted, I haven't seen Che yet, or most of the movies discussed above, so who knows...
I get the sense that Del Toro, for whatever reason, isn't liked by the Academy. I know he won a supporting actor trophy for his work in Traffic (and got a nom for 21 Grams), but something tells me that people don't "get" him. I am probably wrong, though...
Eastwood getting an acting nom is definitely in the cards, I think. He's so well respected and he's only got so many performances left...
Posted by actionman
at October 24, 2008 12:07 PM
comment #2
austin111
says ...
You'll get no argument about the nomination possibility. ADD to that that Eastwood is one of the last huge "stars" not to have a best actor oscar and an echo of his iconic persona in Gran Torino being the centerpiece.....well, it almost seems unbeatable.
Posted by austin111
at October 24, 2008 12:24 PM
comment #3
Josh Massey
says ...
This is Pitt's year.
Posted by Josh Massey
at October 24, 2008 12:37 PM
comment #4
actionman
says ...
I hope so. Pitt's been consistently underrated his entire career and the trailer for BB gives me the goose bumps. It looks staggering. I really hope that it lives up to it's full potential.
Posted by actionman
at October 24, 2008 1:05 PM
comment #5
rgmax99
says ...
I just can't fathom Rourke not picking up the Oscar at this point. Gran Torino looks like vintage Eastwood (a good thing), but (based on the trailer) we've seen this type of performance from him endless times.
And, who is saying this is his swan-song performance? I hope not.
Posted by rgmax99
at October 24, 2008 1:13 PM
comment #6
rgmax99
says ...
By the way, I agree with actionman: Pitt has always been extremely underrated.
Posted by rgmax99
at October 24, 2008 1:14 PM
comment #7
lazarus
says ...
Anyone think Pitt winning an Oscar would be an even bigger blow to Cruise's ego than watching Kidman get one?
Posted by lazarus
at October 24, 2008 1:36 PM
comment #8
berkguru
says ...
They need stars for ratings. Eastwood, Penn, DiCaprio and Pitt are locks. Would be the most A-list nominees in history.
Posted by berkguru
at October 24, 2008 1:56 PM
comment #9
Zimmergirl
says ...
Okay so as long as he doesn't go around saying he thought of this (very obvious and common knowledge) scenario first. Seriously. It's like someone coming out and saying "Meryl Streep is a serious contender for Doubt. You heard it here first."
Posted by Zimmergirl
at October 24, 2008 2:23 PM
comment #10
jjgittes
says ...
Still not convinced DiCaprio is in the running as much as some think. Seems to preordained.
"One of the best performances I've ever seen" ........not buiying it at this point.
Posted by jjgittes
at October 24, 2008 3:01 PM
comment #11
cleopatrajones
says ...
Even with all the most likely well deserved buzz Rourke is getting, it's either Pitt or Eastwood who's going to be standing with the little gold man in his hand.
Posted by cleopatrajones
at October 24, 2008 3:32 PM
comment #12
corey3rd
says ...
How can winning the Indie Spirit Award be a kiss of death for an Oscar nomination? The Indie trophy is given out the day before the Oscars. It's not like they vote on the Oscars from the chairs in the Kodak. It's not even the same voting body. This is not a "nice try" award.
This is not on par with writer/directos winning the best screenplay so you know they aren't going to win best pic or director. That's action on the same ballot.
Leo's performance is going to be judged against one person: Don Draper. Anyone else blown away by the lighting on Don in the pool with the jet setters?
Posted by corey3rd
at October 24, 2008 3:34 PM
comment #13
iamwhoiam
says ...
I don't see Pitt winning. He is indeed an very underrated actor, but Penn and Eastwood will be ahead of him.
I highly doubt that DiCaprio's performance is "one of the best ever". Highly doubt.
Posted by iamwhoiam
at October 24, 2008 3:37 PM
comment #14
Kristopher Tapley
says ...
Zimmergirl: WTF? It's a simple column. Chill.
Posted by Kristopher Tapley
at October 24, 2008 5:59 PM
comment #15
Kristopher Tapley
says ...
corey3rd: The implication I was making was that an Indie Spirit win is the kiss of death for the win. See many obvious exaples.
Posted by Kristopher Tapley
at October 24, 2008 6:00 PM
comment #16
Kristopher Tapley
says ...
Make that "examples."
Posted by Kristopher Tapley
at October 24, 2008 6:00 PM
comment #17
Scott Feinberg
says ...
You guys are ALL forgetting Richard Jenkins... mark my words, SAG will nominate him and he will be in this to the end.
Posted by Scott Feinberg
at October 24, 2008 7:10 PM
comment #18
Kristopher Tapley
says ...
I don't think anyone has forgotten Jenkins. But Overture faces an uphill battle, especially since they're dividing their attention to Dustin Hoffman now. It'll be tight...
Posted by Kristopher Tapley
at October 24, 2008 8:29 PM
comment #19
corey3rd
says ...
Kiss of Death is just too harsh. This isn't a classic Dick Clark or MTV production where they'll change things up at the last minute if you screw with the production or forget to show up to collect.
I want to know if Rudy Ray Moore will be recognized during the dead roll call.
Posted by corey3rd
at October 24, 2008 9:19 PM
comment #20
Cadavra
says ...
I'm still thinking Langella could pull it off. If it's half as good as his stage perf, he's a lock for a nom, and he's got a three-decade track record of superlative work that has (except for the Tonys) largely gone unrecognized. Whereas Clint alresdy has four Oscars; he'll likely get a nom, but when it comes to the statuette itself, I suspect most people will think, "He's got enough."
Posted by Cadavra
at October 24, 2008 11:37 PM
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