Demise of Mr. Snarly?

The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking report, taken from 10.5 to 10.7 (i.e., before last night's debate) shows Barack Obama with a 52% to 41% lead over John McCain. Between McCain's "that one" gaffe, his leaving the studio right after the event (while Barack and Michelle stayed and chatted), and the worldwide economic calamity vibe it really does feel as if the ship has sailed on the 11.4 outcome. The lead may expand a bit in the next poll, given the general consensus that Obama "won" or at least did better last night. The only thing to factor in on top of this is the Bradley effect.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 8, 2008 at 10:40 AM

comment #1

Chicago48 Author Profile Page says ...

Obama supporter here -- but -- he sounded like a broken record last night, in fact they both did. And a 3rd debate? Not worth it. Just go straight to the voting booth. Honestly, what more can they say that they haven't said? Unless something catastrophic happens.
And O tends to be long-winded, almost like hogging a play. In fact, Brokaw got a little rough and sharp with him last night -- "stop it! you're going over 1 minute!" :)
But folks it aint over till it's over.

Posted by Chicago48 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:14 PM

comment #2

Jay T. Author Profile Page says ...

Not to mention McCain snubbing a handshake from Obama, which is currently all over YouTube. That sort of thing really turns people off, particularly in areas big on good manners (including many battleground regions).

Posted by Jay T. Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:15 PM

comment #3

Howlingman Author Profile Page says ...

^^ Agreed -- we're still weeks away from election day. Anything can happen so let's not call this one decided yet.

Posted by Howlingman Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:16 PM

comment #4

Mr. Muckle Author Profile Page says ...

Just turned in my vote-by-mail ballot today. Whew! That's over.

I think Obama is astounding, amazing, best candidate I've ever seen. If he wins, the country is going to be very lucky.

On the other hand, I don't think we ought to put TOO much stock in external agents fixing our lives. He ought to do 1000% better than what's been sleeping in the big house for eight years, but the fact that a man of his talents would even volunteer for the job is remarkable. It's tantamount to walking behind a parade with a shovel and a broom cleaning up the elephant crap. And there is A WHOLE LOT OF IT to clean up, MY FRIENDS.

Posted by Mr. Muckle Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:19 PM

comment #5

Mark Author Profile Page says ...

anything can happen in 4 weeks? Can the market regain 20% and Florida foreclosures completely reverse? Obama/Biden are pretty insulated against an al qaeda attack, as they've pretended to be the hawks regarding Afghanistan/Pakistan. I suppose there are unknown unknowns, but the home team is up 8-0 in the top of the ninth. McCain needs two grand slams just to get even.

Posted by Mark Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:23 PM

comment #6

Monument Author Profile Page says ...

After campaigning as long as they have, I don't blame either of them for sounding like broken records. The thing that is driving me nuts though are the "undecided" voters that keep getting interviewed. Exactly how far must your head be up your ass to not know who you are voting for at this point?

Posted by Monument Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:25 PM

comment #7

115thDreamer Author Profile Page says ...

Good news, indeed. Unless McCain can demonstrate at the last debate that he has literally figured out a way to shit money, it would appear that he is completely fucked. All of the undecideds and independents who used to go on and on about how they didn't know enough about Obama have now had two good chances to see him, and it has to be clear to even the biggest dolt among them that he's a really smart guy who genuinely appears to give a shit about the country and its people in particular. After 8 years of Bush, that's a breath of fresh air.

In contrast, McCain comes off as the gimpy, surly grandpa who everyone tries to avoid at family reunions. Of course he ditched right after the debate - he was already pissed off that he had to share a stage for "that one" for 90 minutes....damned if he was going to shake hands with "those people" for another 20 minutes. I imagine him violently pumping the hand sanitizer backstage afterwards, like Ledger did in TDK after he exited Eckhart's hospital room.

Posted by 115thDreamer Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:25 PM

comment #8

Rich S. Author Profile Page says ...

What a difference two days makes, huh?

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2008/10/it_aint_over.php

Posted by Rich S. Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:25 PM

comment #9

iamwhoiam Author Profile Page says ...

Don't start celebrate, Jeff. History is full of lessons that should keep those champagne bottles closed until November 4.

Posted by iamwhoiam Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:46 PM

comment #10

duck dodgers Author Profile Page says ...

Oh, great, Omaba hung out, and chatted? Did he read My Pet, Goat to them, too? I want a president, who jumps up and is ready, to man a turret gun himself! At least, Michael Moore told me, that I wanted that.

I just console myself that, as obnoxiously, smugly, triumphal, as the Obamatites, like Jeff, will be in a month, they'll be suicidal and whiny, again, after the midterms, in 2010. You, have to take the long view, of these, things.

Posted by duck dodgers Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:54 PM

comment #11

iamwhoiam Author Profile Page says ...

McCain snubbing Obama handshake is almost funny at this point. This man had the maturity of 8 years old.

Posted by iamwhoiam Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 1:58 PM

comment #12

SpinDozer Author Profile Page says ...

I expected McCain to address the deterioration of his campaign last night by announcing some major shift in some aspect of his economic thinking. He stuck to the stump speeches and Obama responded in kind (why should he risk anything?). I guess McCain's got one more chance, but he must've been told that anything less than Mr. Snarly puts the base at risk. You have to think there's at least one more hail mary/scramble the jets moment left...

Posted by SpinDozer Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 2:00 PM

comment #13

iamwhoiam Author Profile Page says ...

"I just console myself that, as obnoxiously, smugly, triumphal, as the Obamatites, like Jeff, will be in a month, they'll be suicidal and whiny, again, after the midterms, in 2010. You, have to take the long view, of these, things."

Why? What's going to happen? You'll be in an endless stupid war and your economy crushed?

Posted by iamwhoiam Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 2:00 PM

comment #14

arturobandini2 Author Profile Page says ...

I can't believe McCain slipped this afternoon and addressed a rally as "my fellow prisoners." I'd say it's all over for him now, except for something disconcerting on CNN last night. Soledad O'Brien's focus group of about 40 undecided voters in Ohio (mostly white and 35+) responded much better to Obama than to McCain in the debate, but when asked who they'd vote for if they had to do it right then, 17 broke for McCain and only 12 for Obama. So the Bradley Effect is to be taken seriously, at least in the swing states.

Posted by arturobandini2 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 2:23 PM

comment #15

Ghost072 Author Profile Page says ...

"I just console myself that, as obnoxiously, smugly, triumphal, as the Obamatites, like Jeff, will be in a month, they'll be suicidal and whiny, again, after the midterms, in 2010. You, have to take the long view, of these, things."

Well, this Obama fan hopes that the Democrats lose control of the House and Senate, or at least one during the midterms. One party should never control the legislative and executive branch at the same time. This has proven over and over again throughout the history of this country. The founders didn't build in checks and balances for looks, you know.

And another thing: if the Supreme Court is imbalanced, a president has the RESPONSIBILITY to balance it out whenever possible. So, if it is 6-3 liberal and a liberal justice retires, the president should appoint a conservative justice to replace the liberal and vice-versa. The court is meant to be balanced, so an honest discourse goes on. The court is not meant to be a political dollhouse.

Posted by Ghost072 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 2:28 PM

comment #16

dinther Author Profile Page says ...

Ghost072, I'm not so sure it would be much different with the Democrats in our out of control of Congress. They are completely timid, spineless and ineffective as it stands, allowing themselves to get bullied by Republicans. And that's when they have power.

If Obama is elected, perhaps Pelosi and Reid will grow a spine. But they have been utterly useless up to now.

And as for Obama - he will govern by his own standards, rather than by a purely "democratic" agenda. He is much more of a pragmatist and centrist, ala George Bush I, than the caricatures of him have depicted.

Posted by dinther Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 3:16 PM

comment #17

Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page says ...

arturobandini2 - if you are going to use a specialized term like Bradley Effect, then use it correctly. Had O'Brien asked for a show of hands of who was voting for Obama and then had them fill out a no-name ballot that came up far fewer votes then you could say "Look, Bradly Effect." What she did was ask two entirely unrelated questions that the participants had the sophistication to comprehend. There were several times when McCain answered more succinctly and directly than Obama did. But it didn't change my vote, just means I'm fair minded enough to acknowledge his better performance. He is still lying sack of shit however.

******* *********** ***************

Well, this Obama fan hopes that the Democrats lose control of the House and Senate, or at least one during the midterms. One party should never control the legislative and executive branch at the same time....if the Supreme Court is imbalanced, a president has the RESPONSIBILITY to balance it out

Ghost072 - are you going for the contradictory post of the day? Considering that the court is now leaning to right and that the next appointment (barring a miracle auto accident involving Scalia or Thomas) will be to replace a "leftist" judge, how the bloody fuck do you think Obama would get one appointed without that control???

Also, that means you want the Dems to keep playing fair when it's clear the other side still has this scorched earth, no compromise attitude. I agree with what you are saying in principle, but the K-Street project and all the other hard ball tactics have made it clear its now either win or lose for the GOP.

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 3:16 PM

comment #18

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Chicago: I thought Obama was more in touch with the details than McCain, though. Also, I'm glad he's long-winded, because the people need answers, not sound bytes.

duck: "Oh, great, Omaba hung out, and chatted? Did he read My Pet, Goat to them, too?"

Yes, because hiding from a terrorist attack you could and should have prevented is the same as being polite. Brilliant.

"I want a president who jumps up and is ready to man a turret gun himself! At least Michael Moore told me that's what I wanted."

You could always enlist yourself, instead of complaining about Michael Moore. But then that would put you at risk of dying, and the liberals would win.

arturo: Don't worry. The other undecideds will fall in line, as the economy gets worse.

Ghost: "Well, this Obama fan hopes that the Democrats lose control of the House and Senate, or at least one during the midterms. One party should never control the legislative and executive branch at the same time. This has proven over and over again throughout the history of this country."

Only when Republicans were running the show.

"And another thing: if the Supreme Court is imbalanced, a president has the RESPONSIBILITY to balance it out whenever possible. So, if it is 6-3 liberal and a liberal justice retires, the president should appoint a conservative justice to replace the liberal and vice-versa."

That's bs. They should appoint justices who have a sense of respect for the law and human rights-regardless of political affiliation.

Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 3:32 PM

comment #19

arturobandini2 Author Profile Page says ...

Deathtongue, I appreciate the nuanced correction, but it's splitting hairs to a degree. The Bradley Effect means polling one way and voting another (usually in regard to a black candidate). Because the undecided voters were hooked up to the dial-a-response meter, they were essentially *polling* in favor of Obama, but still voted for McCain.

In the future, I promise to use the term "Bubba Effect" instead when referring to idiots who comprehend that Obama is the superior candidate but still vote for McCain.

Posted by arturobandini2 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 3:35 PM

comment #20

Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page says ...

arturobandini2, RE splitting hairs.

Actually, it's not.

She asked who won the debate. She didn't ask "Who won the debate and therefore your vote." She also didn't turn to the 11 who didn't vote for either and say "How the fuck could you not know at this point??"

And shouldn't "Bubba Effect" relate to Clinton and hence someone who polls white yet votes black?

I say that in jest, but I do have to wonder if this year will see the reverse of the "Bradley Effect" - people who tell friends "I ain't voting for some guy named Hussien Obama" but when they get in the booth & thoughts of their own mortgage payments hit them they mark the spot for Barack.

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 4:20 PM

comment #21

duck dodgers Author Profile Page says ...

Rasmassen shows the race at six points apart. Zogby says two points.

At this point in the campaign McCain is like a guy who got bitten by dogs after being hit by lighting as he was fixing his flat tire he ought-ta be 15 points down but somehow he isn't. Anyone who thinks they have any idea how this one's gonna turn out is cool.

And I love reading the analysis of Palin's effect from the same people who go bat-shit crazy on her. Pick one you don't have credibillity on both at the same time.

Posted by duck dodgers Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 4:34 PM

comment #22

arturobandini2 Author Profile Page says ...

Fine, Deathtongue, whatever. You win this pissing contest. It's obviously that important to you.

D.Z., hope you're right about undecideds falling in line, of course. But when even Camille Paglia gets rapturous extolling Sarah Palin's virtues, my concerns remain.

Posted by arturobandini2 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 4:44 PM

comment #23

Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page says ...

"Fine, Deathtongue, whatever. You win this pissing contest. It's obviously that important to you.

Ah, the good ol' "What-ev-er" concession. Instead of having the grace to simply say concede the point, someone throws up their hands and walks away in a huff. Sound like my little brother when he didn't get his choice of food "Fine, take it. I don't really want it in the first place."

GTFU

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 7:13 PM

comment #24

arturobandini2 Author Profile Page says ...

"Instead of having the grace to simply say [you] concede the point...GTFU"

I don't concede the point, but I back away from you nonetheless.

Posted by arturobandini2 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 7:51 PM

comment #25

duck dodgers Author Profile Page says ...

[Duck Dodgers has been given the heave-ho. The man is totally delusional about my having changed the spelling on his posts. He's rabid. Saliva is collecting in little bubbles in the corners of his mouth. Another right-wing wacko given the hook -- good thing.]

Posted by duck dodgers Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 8:05 PM

comment #26

gruver1 Author Profile Page says ...

Wells to Duck Dogers: I didn't change the spelling on any of your wretched right-wing posts. You're Glenn Beck, fella -- you'd better run along. I've put your case before the Hollywood Elsewhere Soviet People's Reviewing Committee and they're 5 to 4 in favor of either (a) sending you to Siberia or (b) giving you the option of shooting yourself in the head and thereby protecting your family from reprisals. The SPRC might have been less condemning if you were less reactionary -- if you were a wee bit funnier, say, or less dogmatic -- but you're not. I don't require that only liberal-minded types post on HE. Anyone can say anything as long as there's a semblance of thought and education involved. But rabid right-wing hammer-heads are a no-go.

Posted by gruver1 Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 9:01 PM

comment #27

BurmaShave Author Profile Page says ...

Awesome.

Posted by BurmaShave Author Profile Page at October 8, 2008 10:29 PM

comment #28

frankbooth Author Profile Page says ...

Duck Dodgers tried to blame Wells for his inability to spell?

That's dethpicable!

Posted by frankbooth Author Profile Page at October 9, 2008 6:21 AM

comment #29

Ghost072 Author Profile Page says ...

"Ghost072 - are you going for the contradictory post of the day? Considering that the court is now leaning to right and that the next appointment (barring a miracle auto accident involving Scalia or Thomas) will be to replace a "leftist" judge, how the bloody fuck do you think Obama would get one appointed without that control???"

Obama will have two years to appoint two judges (I fully expect both Ginsberg and Stevens to retire before the midterms in 2010), son control should not be an issue. He should appoint two liberals in this case, because two will be leaving. As long as the court is 5-4 in either direction I am happy.

DZ:

"Only when Republicans were running the show."

Not so. Democrats have every ability to be corrupt and irresponsible. Claiming otherwise just makes you a partisan hack. As I said, the founding fathers knew the importance of checks and balances and so should we.

"That's bs. They should appoint justices who have a sense of respect for the law and human rights-regardless of political affiliation."

Yeah, that's all fine and dandy, but if you have a court that is 7-2 conservative, don't come crying to me.

Posted by Ghost072 Author Profile Page at October 9, 2008 10:05 AM

comment #30

Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page says ...

So you were for the concession until you were against it?

Doesn't matter at this point, this here Br'er Rabbit knows a tarbaby to avoid in the future when he sees him and will put you on the list with D.Z. of folks it's not worth the effort to engage in.

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page at October 9, 2008 11:06 AM

comment #31

arturobandini2 Author Profile Page says ...

Deathtongue, I conceded nothing except for your determination to be a literal-minded twit. Twice I tried to be conversational, and twice you attempted to be a condescending shmuck while making inarticulate posts concerning something which (from the way you described it) I doubt you even watched. Your foot-stomping demeanor and insecure need to get in the last word is the reason I'm backing away from you. You have what I call chat room halitosis.

Posted by arturobandini2 Author Profile Page at October 9, 2008 11:39 AM

comment #32

Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page says ...

"Your foot-stomping demeanor and insecure need to get in the last word is the reason I'm backing away from you. "

So you keep saying...

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie Author Profile Page at October 9, 2008 11:54 AM

comment #33

D.Z. Author Profile Page says ...

Ghost: "Democrats have every ability to be corrupt and irresponsible."

True, but the Repugs always manage to top them.

"As I said, the founding fathers knew the importance of checks and balances and so should we."

There's a difference between checks and balances and the kind of obstructionism and cronyism which leads to a city being flooded.


Posted by D.Z. Author Profile Page at October 9, 2008 9:39 PM

comment #34

janee Author Profile Page says ...

Si vous etes interesses par le dossier, ou desirez en savoir plus, contactez-moi par mail, et je vous mettrai en contact.
Best regards,Jane, CEO of high availability

Posted by janee Author Profile Page at May 18, 2011 5:05 AM

Leave a comment