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It Ain't Over
Perhaps the most dangerous, Obama-threatening paragraph in recent weeks was posted yesterday by New Republic columnist Howard Wolfson (a.k.a., "The Flack"). "Perpetually fretting Democrats will not want to accept it," it begins. "The campaigns themselves can't afford to believe it. Many journalists know it but can't say it. And there will certainly be some twists and turns along the way. But take it to a well capitalized bank: Bill Ayers isn't going to save John McCain. The race is over."
He may well be right, but there are at least five reasons why these words shouldn't be spoken.
One, it ain't over until it's over. Two, there are millions of Obama-supporting but fundamentally lazy and distracted under-25 voters who will leap at any excuse not to vote, and reading that political insiders believe that "it's over" is just the excuse they'd like to hear. Three, McCain going ugly between now and 11.3 could notch things down a point or two. Four, something bad could still happen (like a terrorist October surprise). Five, however far ahead in the polls Obama may be the night before election day, the Bradley Effect (i.e., racial-minded whites getting cold feet in the election booth) will probably drop that margin 3 to 4 points.
Here's a sixth reason:
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 6, 2008 at 1:48 PM
Essentials
comment #1
iamwhoiam
says ...
Yap. Complacency can bring disaster here.
Posted by iamwhoiam
at October 6, 2008 2:19 PM
comment #2
Jay T.
says ...
It's definitely not over, as you can never underestimate the stupidity of the American people. Likewise, you can never underestimate Jeff's ability to stereotype large groups of people. I ask again: what was the voter turnout for your generation when you were under 25?
Posted by Jay T.
at October 6, 2008 3:04 PM
comment #3
Ogami Itto
says ...
Great satirical, right-wing article on Obama:
http://www.conservapedia.com/Barack_Obama
That was satire, right??
Posted by Ogami Itto
at October 6, 2008 3:37 PM
comment #4
Deathtongue_Groupie
says ...
Besides repeating myself about how that Bradley effect didn't save Clinton's bacon, there's an equally compelling reason why the under-25 crowd for Obama's might actually surge this year: the Victory Effect.
People want to be part of this moment for all the aspects of this that promise to be literally positively historical. For once, the "overpraise and flock to the winner" mentality of America might be a good thing. And screw the GOP apologists, but it will feel damn good to know that for once the actual people who make up our allies (and not just their governments) will share in that Victory.
Holy shit, is it possible we might live in a world where people actually like, love and most importantly respect us again? It's pretty mind-blowing to think that starting November 5th, we might have a leader that people around the world treat with the same adulation that we do. Only the small minded and unimaginative dismiss that as celebrity worship and cult of the leader flaps of the hand.
But all one has to consider is just how much more can be accomplished when the rest of the world treats your leader as a rock star and as a symbol of what is possible.
Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie
at October 6, 2008 3:57 PM
comment #5
Mark
says ...
Obama/Biden are somewhat insulated from an October terroist surprise, ceding Iraq and surge to McCain, and cornering the need to fight the terroists in Afghanistan/Pakistan. (Here's also hoping that this move is mainly political, and full-scale Afghan occupation isn't at the top of the list for Obama.)
Posted by Mark
at October 6, 2008 4:00 PM
comment #6
duck dodgers
says ...
I wouldn't predict anything during a financial meltdown.
It's sort of like predicting that you're finally going to score with your sexy neighbor as the hurricane approaches.
Posted by duck dodgers
at October 6, 2008 4:16 PM
comment #7
Sonic Boom
says ...
The under-25's will come out for Obama. With voters 18-29, Kerry beat Bush by 10%. And the only reason they voted for Kerry was because he wasn't Bush. Young people actually like Obama.
Unless the economy does a 180 before November 4th, this race is over.
Posted by Sonic Boom
at October 6, 2008 5:15 PM
comment #8
duck dodgers
says ...
"The under-25's will come out for Obama."
Now that's funny!
The dead are more likely to vote than the kids. At least the dead are already registered in Cook County.
Posted by duck dodgers
at October 6, 2008 5:28 PM
comment #9
D.Z.
says ...
Mark: It's not Iraq and Afghanistan we're worried about, but Iran.
Posted by D.Z.
at October 6, 2008 7:35 PM
comment #10
Movie Watcher
says ...
I think many young people will vote. I also think that tonight's debate will be a huge event. Palin/Biden had 70 million; I expect 75-80 million will tune in tonight. Will McCain continue with the Ayers/Wright stuff, or will he answer questions about the economy? Obama has to be at the top of his game.
Also, Fox News is already "hinting" at voter fraud in Ohio. What a surprise. They actually look desperate, especially on the awful morning show.
Posted by Movie Watcher
at October 7, 2008 6:15 AM
comment #11
vp19
says ...
Obama has run a near-flawless campaign, and has established his cool. calm persona to such an extent that the "angry black man" stereotype simply won't apply to him. To borrow an old political bromide, the only way he loses this election is if he's "found in bed with a dead girl or a live boy."
Posted by vp19
at October 9, 2008 8:28 AM
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