Lamentably True

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"Wondering if you're really a Democrat?," writes Tucker Carlson on the Daily Beast. "Here's a quick way to find out: Given everything the Democratic party has going for it this year -- the overwhelming financial advantage, the legions of new voters, George W. Bush -- do you believe the Obama campaign could still somehow, in the final moments, find a way to blow it and lose this election?

"If you answered yes, you're a Democrat.

"Two weeks out, only the Democrats in Washington think Obama might not win. That's not the result of a scientific study, but instead the conclusion I've reached after many lunches, dinners and elevator rides with DC Democrats. Against all evidence, a good number of them have convinced themselves that John McCain is going to be the next president.

"Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. [But] you'll never convince most Democrats of that.

"Partly this is superstition, like throwing salt over your shoulder when you spill the shaker: predictions are bad luck. But it's also the voice of experience.

"'We're the Cincinnati Bengals,' says Jay Rouse, a longtime Democratic political consultant. 'Democrats are used to losing, not winning.'

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 21, 2008 at 1:08 PM

comment #1

mizerock says ...

Red Sox Democrats needed:
http://www.newshoggers.com/blog/hillary_clinton/

A few innings into the post-season, Cubs fans were resigned to their season being over.
A few outs from being eliminated in game 5, the Red Sox rose up against long odds and reminded the Boston faithful that anything is possible.

Posted by mizerock at October 21, 2008 2:07 PM

comment #2

Chicago48 says ...

So true Tucker, so true. All the hoopla....all the polling....all the $Mil$ money and yes Barack Obama could blow it. The break in the campaign to visit his ill grandmother could cause a slowdown of momentum.

A weak turnout of college age students....yep, he could lose. Don't rule out McC just yet....however, I think the one thing O has going for him and what McC has going against him is "age". Shhh....we're not supposed to say the A word, but yes, I think people will want youth over maturity.

Posted by Chicago48 at October 21, 2008 2:31 PM

comment #3

sardine says ...

I am a Democrat. Obama will win.

Posted by sardine at October 21, 2008 2:44 PM

comment #4

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

Actually, if you want to use this baseball analogy and keep the Red Sox, it's pretty simple: you can either have a World Series victory or a President.

In 2004, the Red Sox, home team of the Democratic nominee, won the series and Kerry lost the election.

In 2008, the Cubs, home team of the Democratic nominee, lost the playoffs and Obama....

And this is coming from a big Cubs fan. The series would have been fantastic, but if we have to sacrifice in order to save the country we'll take the hit.

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie at October 21, 2008 2:46 PM

comment #5

SpinDozer says ...

McCain Concedes Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico
CNN is reporting that McCain is making those tough decisions that politicians love to talk about. According to CNN, McCain is abandoning Colorado (9 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs) and New Mexico (5 Evs). If Obama wins these three he gets 21 EVs. Add these to the 252 EVs Kerry won and he has 273 and becomes President. McCain's strategy at this point is to win Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and--get this--Pennsylvania. The first six are arguably swing states, but our three-poll average puts Obama 12 points ahead in Pennsylvania. McCain is effectively betting the farm on a state which looks like an Obama landslide. It is a strange choice. Colorado looks a lot easier than Pennsylvania. James Carville once famously said that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama sandwiched in between. Maybe McCain is going to go all out to win the white working class men in the Alabama section of Pennsylvania. McCain can't possibly do it on the economy. What's left? Maybe run against the Wright/Ayers ticket? Any way you look at it, this has to be a desperation move.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

It all comes down to turnout. This isn't 2004 or 2000 when the polls were close enough that your belief that the voters would 'do the right thing' was the sensible person's hope.

Posted by SpinDozer at October 21, 2008 3:23 PM

comment #6

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

SpinDozer - supposing for a moment that every single pollster in the country is wrong (and they are probably underestimating Obama's victory because of the demographics this time out) and McCain wins those states.

He might still lose.

Because at the moment both North Dakota and Montana have become iffy and either one of those would hand Obama the election even if he gets that single Maine vote he is trying for.

Obama would win with exactly 270.

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie at October 21, 2008 3:46 PM

comment #7