comment #1

huntermdaniels says ...

Really? I would think that Tilda Swinton would be the supporting actress nominee from Button. She definitely had the best role in the script I read.

comment #2

The InSneider says ...

You really think Slumdog will hold up for a BP nod? Even if it does, you know the Directors category never lines up perfectly. Also, Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder. Not a chance. He couldn't even buy a nod for Zodiac for cryin' out loud. Also, pick Langella or Jenkins for the veteran vote, cuz Penn is getting in. Abbass is a stretch. Otherwise, not bad Gruver. Not bad.

comment #3

115thDreamer says ...

Hmmm....the Directors line up perfectly with the Best Picture nominees...that rarely happens. The better guess would be for Boyle to get stiffed on the Director nod while the film still gets the Best Picture nomination...I could see that happening. I hope he's right about Melissa Leo though - she's really wonderful.

comment #4

atticusrex says ...

Are we sure Gran Torino is opening in December in LA and NY?

I though Eastwood's Changeling was his front runner this year. Is it out of the running because it didn't win Cannes?

So Eastwood a man of few words who in the past has let his magnum, colt or fists do the talking could potentially have 2 films competing in one Oscar contest?!

While I have loved his recent output as a director this is still amazing to someone like me who grew up watching Rowdy Yates tackling Italian cowboys in Spain and then busting criminals on the mean streets of San Francisco and even a detour to NY by way of New Mexico.

Kudo's Mr. Eastwood. Knew it would happen for him ever since I saw Play Misty in a theatre back in the early '70's. Came home and felt I had just witnessed a new Hitchcock film.

comment #5

BurmaShave says ...

Sneider, ZODIAC, masterpiece it may be, was not a solid hit with real resonance in the zeitgeist. I suspect they also want to make amends for overlooking his work as Avery. Not to mention Paramount is now fully behind the campaign for him in TROPIC.

comment #6

The InSneider says ...

I know RDJ had a great year with TT and Iron Man but neither role is truly worthy of an Oscar nomination, as great as he is in both. And sure voters will be looking to throw him a make-up nod but with The Soloist gone, so are his chances. Paramount's campaign will just be flushing money down the toilet as a make-good for screwing him over with The Soloist delay, not that he was a sure thing by any means for that performance. And as I was saying on Tapley's site, if we're seriously talking about RDJ for TT, then why not Franco in Pineapple Express. Watch Milk pick up 2 supporting nods for Brolin/Franco/Hirsch.

comment #7

BurmaShave says ...

I thought we just fought you "worthy" monkeys off about Ledger. What metric are you using to deem his performance beneath the usual Oscar-caliber? When is the last time someone has had such a year and come away empty-handed? I submit to you that someone, somewhere was making your argument regarding Johnny Depp circa 2003.

comment #8

polarbear2 says ...

Robert Downey Jr.'s getting the nod.
Who nominates actors? Other actors. And every actor in Hollywood knows the type of pain-in-the-ass method actor that Downey is satirizing. They understand the joke, and can appreciate the performance. They identify with it more than they would with Franco's pot dealer or the Joker.
That's how Shakespeare in Love won ten years ago. Hollywood related better to a film about entertainers than films about soldiers.

comment #9

Marcello says ...

That's crazy. Clearly Penn will be getting a best actor nom. How bad would he have to be to NOT get it for this part? He'll very likely win.

And I'd be surprised if Rev. Road gets any love. Maybe The Visitor sneaks in for BP, with the right push?

Also... what a lousy year this is shaping up to be!

comment #10

The InSneider says ...

Marcello, how can you be surprised Revolutionary Road would get Oscar love, considering its a Sam Mendes film starring Leo and Kate. A statement like that makes me think your brain is suffering from some sort of dementia. And Burma, are you talking about Ledger's year or Downey Jr's. By the way, I was making that argument about Johnny Depp in 03. Still the biggest travesty of a nomination maybe EVER. Jack Sparrow can suck a fuck. Johnny Depp hasn't impressed me in a more than a decade. Perhaps the most overrated star on the planet and now Disney wants to pay him like $56 mil for a fourth Pirates. God help us all.

comment #11

Mark says ...

If I could give The Visitor only one nomination, it would go to McCarthy for direction.

comment #12

BurmaShave says ...

Sneider, you're allowing your personal preference to influence your analysis. I know you're out there with your ear to the ground and I'm here in DC doing reports on cost effectiveness of defense systems, but it would seem like I have a point, no? Travesty or not, Depp got that nod and so will Downey.

comment #13

The InSneider says ...

Burma, maybe, MAYBE you have a point but I loved Downey Jr.'s performance in Tropic Thunder, I just don't see it in any way as Oscar worthy, or even nomination worthy. I mean, if Michael Sheen was being pushed for supporting for Frost/Nixon, which I haven't seen yet but still, are you telling me Downey Jr. should be nommed over Sheen's work? Or what about Ben Kingsley in The Wackness, which was as brave a performance as any I've seen this year. Depp got the nod because a billion people got suckered into the original POTC, not because his Capt. Jack was a virtuoso feat in performance. Disney practically bought that nomination. You think all the actors out there thought to themselves, gee, I wish I had the chops to be as good as Johnny is at playing a pirate. Gimme a break. Everyone loves Johnny Depp for some inexplicable reason. He used to do shit like Edward Scissorhands. Now he does Willy Wonka and gets nominated for Nickelodeon awards. Depp has enormous talent but he keeps taking paycheck after paycheck in movies his kids can see. And don't feed me that Sweeney Todd bullshit because I didn't buy it last year and I'm still not buying it. Fuck that movie and fuck the Johnny Depp of the last decade. He's better than that and he KNOWS it but he still doesn't care because he jerks off into a wad of $100 bills every night.

comment #14

BurmaShave says ...

As a layman I have not yet seen FROST/NIXON either, but he's not being pushed for Supporting. I thought Sheen was robbed for THE QUEEN, but it's sort of a moot point. Kingsley was really great in THE WACKNESS, but I wasn't feeling the movie that much. I thought he was much better in ELEGY and even YOU KILL ME, and he'll never be acknowledged for either. You'll feel better when the performances you love and the ones you consider Oscar-worthy start to be the same thing, because it's kind of a crap shoot this early in the game.

I for one was thrilled by Depp in PIRATES, I did think it was virtuoso and one of the more rebellious things I've ever seen in the center of a huge studio film. That's why the sequels (and the endless ones yet to come) were do soul-crushing. I will cop entirely to Depp selling out a bit, but it happens to most guys when they hit a certain age and have commitments. Still within that stretch he's managed to do work like THE LIBERTINE. And who among us doesn't have high hopes for Michael Mann's PUBLIC ENEMIES?

I hated SWEENEY, but I thought he was marvelous in it and almost saved it. We've been around the block about your disdain for Depp, but projects aside, he's one of the finest actors of his generation. He's a character lead who very much overcame his looks. While not quite in their league he's following in the footsteps of Olivier and Brando. Hopefully a creatively rich period is yet to come, somewhere after THE LONE RANGER I suppose.

And I promise you he doesn't jack off into $100 bills, not when he's got Vanessa Paradis at home.

comment #15

insidah says ...

Hi Revolutionary Road, it's me MAD MEN.

What you can do in two hours, I've already done perfectly, and for a greater, richer duration of time.

So, good luck.

comment #16

iamwhoiam says ...

RDJ role in TT is the most difficult, challenging and risky job any actor has done this year. So what if it's comedy? That makes it even more impressive. He deserve the nod with no connection to The Soloist farce.

comment #17

The InSneider says ...

By the way, that's not to begrudge Depp his money. If he can get $56 million then by all means he should take it. That's a no brainer. But I just wish he'd choose more interesting material. Not more challenging, but more interesting, at least for adults. not that there's anything wrong with making kids movies. but i miss the johnny depp of nick of time. thriller depp. im looking forward to public enemies but more cuz its michael mann, not johnny depp. i guess ive just been let down lately. he's still a great actor. i just can't stand that disney trilogy.

comment #18

guylodge says ...

Sheen is blatantly the lead in Frost/Nixon... smuggling him into supporting would be category fraud of the most shameful order.

And for what it's worth, I think Downey Jr's "Tropic Thunder" performance is a lot more interesting than Sheen's.

Nice predictions, Jeff. The nod to Hiam Abbass in particular.

comment #19

romeoisbleeding says ...

It will be nice to see Fincher get some Oscar love this year but I doubt if I will love Benjamin as much as I loved Zodiac. That movie still blows me away and I have lost count how many times I have seen it. And it would be gratifying to see Downey nominated for Tropic Thunder. He stole that movie and created a very unforgettable role. I can't even begin to imagine how any other actor could have done that part as well as he did. Can you see Brad Pitt or Sean Penn pulling that one off? But at the end of the day none of this matters. The supporting Oscar already has Heath's name carved into it. Whoever accepts it in his name will end up being part of the emotinonal high point of the night. So on to next year.....

comment #20

Doug says ...

I'm expecting Revolutionary Road to be dreary. Movies about the dissolution of a marriage usually are.
Are any of these movies really going to be better received than "The Dark Knight"?
I also wish Paramount would support Robert Downey Jr. for "Iron Man." I haven't seen a more virtuoso performance this year, or a more enjoyable one.

comment #21

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