Hammond's Take

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In his latest "Notes on a Season" column, The Envelope's Pete Hammond claims that "at this point the Best Picture frontrunners among members I have talked to are Wall-E , The Dark Knight and Changeling, in that order."

Changeling? Nobody on my wavelength has considered, much less flirted with, this notion. I guess Hammond's party-chat friends haven't been told that Clint Eastwood's '08 Oscar shot is Gran Torino or nothing. Forget Changeling.

"They haven't seen much else," says Hammond -- what, no Milk screenings? -- but Slumdog Millionaire "is slowly starting to be mentioned as well."

Hammond acknowledges that "unanimous [forecast] among the bloggers, though, is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will win in a rout, even though none of us have seen the Dec. 25 release...yet."

Hammond is implying there's a certain b.s. factor at work here. Oscar handicappers presuming or imagining what it is or might be, blah blah. The reason there's a strong belief in this corner that Button will take the Best Picture Oscar is (a) I've read Eric Roth's script and believe it to be a sad and moving piece, and (b) the fact that two guys -- a respected post-production veteran and a bright fellow who knows a lot of people and hears things -- are telling me that middle-aged guys who've seen it have gotten all choked up.

The Best Picture contender that makes people cry wins -- it's that simple.

"Almost no one in the academy or the press has seen Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino, The Reader, Revolutionary Road, Seven Pounds or Fox's Australia, which the studio is purposely taking its own sweet time to campaign. Rightly they figure people should see the Baz Luhrmann epic (which likely will be delivered wet to theaters on Nov. 26) before the studio starts touting it for awards. In fact, most people at Fox would probably love to see the heavily under wraps film themselves before shouting its best picture potential to the rest of the world."

"Meanwhile foreign-language film entries continue to screen at a swift pace, but from what we've been told only Germany, Japan and Russia have made any significant impact, with Italy's Cannes Grand Prix winner, Gomorra, getting predictions that it will be one of the final five, despite mixed response from some who frowned on its generous amount of violence.

"And the Portuguese film Our Beloved Month of August was apparently so poorly received that some members were trying to leave before they could 'officially' exit and still receive credit for seeing it."

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 7, 2008 at 3:23 PM

comment #1

The InSneider says ...

TDK, Wall-E and Changeling for BP? A total joke. EW is reaching. Though a nod for TDK is feasible as all the "real" contenders fall by the wayside. It's ridiculous all the non-stories that get written about because these guys have blogs and column inches to fill. Milk and Slumdog were both very good but I didn't feel either was deserving of a Best Picture nod. Obviously still a lot to see but I feel Doubt, The Wrestler and to a lesser extent Rachel Getting Married are the only real possibly deserving BP candidates I've seen. The Wrestler has had real staying power with me. It could turn out to be Rourke and that's it but lately I've been thinking it could hang around the race. Just like Randy the Ram, don't count it out. Doubt is just flat-out a better movie than Milk. Maybe not as cinematic or important a story but trust me, it's a more satisfying experience.

Posted by The InSneider at November 7, 2008 4:09 PM

comment #2

LexG says ...

Well, BEN LYONS sure thinks Changeling is a sure thing. Just last weekend, he was hyping it up as usual, until Mank told him to settle down, that it wasn't going to be a major contender.

I persist in the superficial but probably somewhat accurate belief that "Slumdog Millionaire" is kind of an odd, almost embarassing title for a major awards contender OR a possible word-of-mouth indie hit. It just sounds... unpleasant or something.

I notice that "Valkyrie" doesn't even rate a mention anywhere in any of the awards talk. Isn't there just at least a 1% chance that it'll surprise everyone and be kinda awesome?

Posted by LexG at November 7, 2008 4:21 PM

comment #3

lazarus says ...

Agreed on that, Lex. Having a hard time picturing that.

Anyone want to throw out names of recent BP titles that are similar in tone?

I went back like 30 years and The Full Monty is the only one that's even suggestive, and Shawshank is the only one that seems like too much of a mouthful. Tootsie sounds a little slangy and slight, but that's the only thing I got.

For the most part, the BP nom titles are all rather basic and, for lack of a better word, dignified.

Posted by lazarus at November 7, 2008 4:45 PM

comment #4

Zimmergirl says ...

Little Miss Sunshine vs. The Departed
Juno vs. No Country for Old Men

The cryer doesn't always get it. In fact lately, it's seemed more like a hinderance. 'Course if you toss in the Holocaust or a Great Big Tragedy you might be on to something.

Posted by Zimmergirl at November 7, 2008 4:53 PM

comment #5

arch451 says ...

Wall-E and TDK are the two best movies I have seen so far this year, but I doubt that will hold true by the end of the year. Wall-E is certainly the best animated film, but it's probably not going to overcome the animated film stigma.

Heath Ledger could easily win for actor but TDK is too flawed of a masterpiece to win best picture, much less be nominated.

Posted by arch451 at November 7, 2008 4:58 PM

comment #6

huntermdaniels says ...

Reader has a test screening this week...

Posted by huntermdaniels at November 7, 2008 5:10 PM

comment #7

p.Vice says ...

So in other words a bunch of shit will be nominated for Oscars. That's never happened before!!

Then again, considering at this point the year has barely produced anything worth talking about, I'm not surprised.

Posted by p.Vice at November 7, 2008 5:59 PM

comment #8

erniesouchak says ...

Wall-E is half a good movie, Dark Knight has one good performance going for it, and Changeling sucks. Why the hell are these movies front-runners?

Posted by erniesouchak at November 7, 2008 6:50 PM

comment #9

dinovelvet says ...

Someone else mentioned Valkyrie above, so I must ask - no buzz for Defiance either? Ed Zwick, Holocaust, Daniel Craig - anybody?

Posted by dinovelvet at November 7, 2008 7:26 PM

comment #10

dinovelvet says ...

ernie - Could be that after last year's arthouse fest, with No Country, There will be blood, and La vie en rose getting all the big wins, the collective "WHO?/WHAT?" from the tv audience, combined with low ratings, may mean that they'll feel obliged to nominate a token blockbuster like Dark Knight

Posted by dinovelvet at November 7, 2008 7:28 PM

comment #11

The InSneider says ...

Can't argue with Ernie at all. I have no clue why those 3 are even in the discussion. Ledger is IN and I wouldn't count Nolan out yet either but BP is a stretch. And Changeling did suck for the most part. But LexG brings up the movie that no one is talking about (along with Seven Pounds) and that is Valkyrie, which I have heard is VERY GOOD. The source may be a little bias but I think the Singer-McQuarrie reteaming and collaboration with Cruise/Branagh/Nighy could surprise A LOT of people.

Posted by The InSneider at November 7, 2008 7:36 PM

comment #12

Sabina E says ...

dinovelvet is right. nominating Ledger and TDK for the Oscars would bring in big ratings.

in the long run, the ratings are the only thing that matter to the Oscars show producers, yeah?

Posted by Sabina E at November 7, 2008 7:37 PM

comment #13

Pablo VillaÃ§a says ...

Our Beloved Month of August is the best film I've seen this year. It's a funny, extremely clever, kafmanesque docu-comedy-fiction which is not like anything I've seen before.

The foreign film committee is going to blow it again, as usual.

Posted by Pablo VillaÃ§a at November 7, 2008 7:54 PM

comment #14

D.Z. says ...

Why does Che's trailer rip off the Reds trailer? http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2008/0-9ABC/Che/trailer.php

Posted by D.Z. at November 7, 2008 9:33 PM

comment #15

D.Z. says ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081108/ap_on_re_us/mormon_backlash_boycott;_ylt=AtdvxbOIGVsbOnBVlnUeLXus0NUE

Posted by D.Z. at November 7, 2008 9:48 PM

comment #16

dobbsy says ...

Let's be clear about one thing as the poltical season wraps up and this awards season heats up: Sarah Palin is the Ben Lyons of the Republican Party and Ben Lyons is the Sarah Palin of film criticism. There. I feel better now.

Posted by dobbsy at November 7, 2008 10:09 PM

comment #17

Dan Revill says ...

I think Jolie will probably end up with a nomination for Changeling. Same goes for Michael Kelly's supporting turn. I thought the cinematography by Tom Stern was really well done too. Looking over his resume, I'm surprised he hasn't been nominated for an Oscar yet.
Like most though, I'm thinking Gran Torino will be the Clint movie that'll have the greatest hope for traction when it comes to Best Picture. The material seems to be right now, if that makes sense (of course I haven't read a script or heard seen any screenings...and a trailer only tells you so much).

Posted by Dan Revill at November 8, 2008 1:18 AM

comment #18

teeem says ...

saw "The Reader" tonight in SM, via the AFM. it's good.
Winslett is as good or better than KS THomas in a comparable role. she is let down by her makeup artist in the last act.
if i wasn't so gobsmacked by the Obama thing, and emotionally twisted by "let the right one in" which i saw last night, i might have something more intelligent to say.

Posted by teeem at November 8, 2008 2:06 AM

comment #19

D.Z. says ...

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i431ca797a370fbb2da92466e2a3a3535

Posted by D.Z. at November 8, 2008 3:42 AM

comment #20

Markj74 says ...

The Dark Knight is now officially the most overrated movie ever.

Posted by Markj74 at November 8, 2008 7:27 AM

comment #21

p.Vice says ...

The Dark Knight was officially the most overrated movie ever when Ledger took his last breath.

Posted by p.Vice at November 8, 2008 9:22 AM

comment #22

The Winchester says ...

Is Synecdoche, NY too arch and depressing for "The Academy"? Because that's the best movie I've seen all year.

Bollocks to Changeling's best pic chances. And the only reason Jolie will get a nomination, despite crying in every single goddamn scene after yelling "I want my son back", is because she's hot and "The Academy" (by which I mean the producers of the show) want tits on screen. And forget it if she AND Brad Pitt get noms, tabloids will have a joygasm so large it'll blow the Z off TMZ.

Posted by The Winchester at November 8, 2008 10:57 AM

comment #23

Edward says ...

Right on, The Winchester.

Posted by Edward at November 8, 2008 11:58 AM

comment #24

D.Z. says ...

mark: Nah, I still think Titanic was more overrated. But I agree that TDK didn't live up to the hype, and that Iron Man was the better film.

Posted by D.Z. at November 8, 2008 4:01 PM

comment #25

JosephB says ...

I was VERY surprised by how much I liked "Changeling" and *gasp* I'd actually have no problem seeing Jolie get nominated. She carries the film remarkably well. She effectively paints her character as a woman divided by the circumstances in her life. In the first half of the film, Jolie renders Christine as a diminutive figure... so much so that when she follows police up the steps of the Los Angeles station, she almost disappears against the swarm of black umbrellas and suited men around her. And before that, her first phone call to the police is handled with riveting delicacy as her voice gently cracks when she tries to explain her son is missing. Whether this was a conscious decision by Jolie and director Eastwood or one of those harmonious cinematic coincidences remains to be explained, but it's a beautiful moment that underscores the desperation of the scene. So yea, I really really liked this one.

Posted by JosephB at November 8, 2008 8:19 PM

comment #26