comment #1

bachelorcool says ...

Don't be surprised to see The Dark Knight get nominated for best picture and win. It fits the bill with the Academy, creatively, financially, and politically.

comment #2

Discman says ...

For Best Picture, think W: "Wall-E," "The Wrestler," and yes, maybe even "W."

comment #3

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

Sappier and schmuckier?!! Where is the real J.W., and what have you done with him? In all seriousness, it just sounds like (based on your original review) "Che" was your favorite film of '08. Who really gives a damn what anyone else thinks, including the "front-runner" for the Academy award?

I also agree with what bachelor said.

comment #4

Chase Kahn says ...

Jeff -- With all due respect, I don't want to know what the Academy will think about it (admittedly, Oscar season pays the bills) or your average moviegoer that likes TRANSPORTER 3 -- give us your "CHE" review, did you personally want it sappier and schmuckier?

Plus, since you seem convinced this isn't "THE ONE" -- was the general reaction in New York closer to yours or the Taply/LA screening?

comment #5

Chase Kahn says ...

Tapley*

comment #6

YND says ...

I posted some of this way down in another forum, but to add to the convo here...

I really think that SLUMDOG has Best Pic sewn up. Yeah, it's got no star-power and it's way more international than the usual Best Pic fare... but it can happen. (Though CHARIOTS OF FIRE is the only kinda similar case I can think of.)

All I know is that, watching the film, you can feel the vibe coming off the audience. In a field with no really strong "Oscary" front-runners, if this one can find an audience and become a word-of-mouth hit, it's got Best Pic in the bag. It's classically constructed in the Old Hollywood mold, but feels completely original. It's technically remarkable and emotionally joyous. The thing just works.

As someone who was in the minority of wet blankets for the last two Fox Searchlight audience darlings (LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE and JUNO), it feels great to be able to jump on the bandwagon for this one. For my money, I haven't seen a better movie this year (and I've checked pretty much everything but BUTTON, MILK and FROST/NIXON off my to-see list).

As for the rest (imho), as far as the Academy is concerned... DOUBT's too small, RESERVATION ROAD is too dour, DARK KNIGHT is too "genre", THE WRESTLER's too gritty, no one's loving AUSTRALIA and MILK and FROST/NIXON (I hear) are very good but notable more for their performances than for the overall film. Sounds like BUTTON is going to be pretty divisive. I'd love to see WALL*E get in there but it's unlikely to break out of the animation ghetto and even if it does, there are actually quite a few people who REALLY disliked it (mostly the CARS crowd, it seems), so it's not going to build up the popular groundswell it would need to win.

Fox Searchlight's going to need to work some magic to make it a phenomenon with the mainstream, but I really think awareness is its only obstacle to a clear SLUMDOG win come next year.

comment #7

actionman says ...

Wall*E is brilliant. I would love to see it get a best pic nomination. It's not gonna happen but it'd be cool if it did.

Wouldn't be surprised (and would be really pleased) if The Dark Knight got in there. It's the best of the best in terms of the type of film that it is.

Really want to see Button, Slumdog, Wrestler, and Revolutionary Road. Those are my top picks for the rest of the year.

comment #8

MikeSchaeferSF says ...

OK, if you're gonna prosletyze for Slumdog in two threads, I've gotta vent. Saw it last nite and was a bit underwhelmed. It's... good. But not THAT good. Recycled Dickens in a non-Hollywood setting, nothing more. For the first hour I was mildly annoyed; the combination of cutesy coincidence (in the way the questions all related to his life) and Dickensian squalor was an uneasy mix, I thought. I warmed up to it in the 2nd half, but really, just because a movie ends with a dance number doesn't make it the feel-good movie of the year. I certainly don't see any acting noms coming from it.

Critics are falling over themselves for SM because it's exotic and trendy. Middle America doesn't know from Bollywood and I can't see them falling in love with it.

comment #9

theultimatebiu says ...

I would love to see Wall*E get nominated but it won't. I see Dark Knight getting nominated but only winning in technical awards. Button looks interesting but I can't help but feel it will be a box office dud...which may hurt its oscar chances.

comment #10

Rich S. says ...

Chicago. Forrest Gump. Greatest Show on Earth. Around the World in 80 Days. Crash.

To paraphrase Capone's henchman in the bar scene in The Untouchables, "It don't have to be good. It just has to be bought." Sounds like Fincher sells it, but doesn't have enough Spielberg or Zemeckis in him to close the deal.

comment #11

Rich S. says ...

In other words, can you smell what Gran Torino is cookin'?

comment #12

byanyother says ...

It's good that you say the Academy won't go for it because it is just that kind of talk that makes a movie like this win. At this point, it towers above everything else. It will probably be down to: BB vs. Slumdog vs. Frost/Nixon -- the latter as an alternative to the special effects dazzler and "little indie that could." Anyone over the age of 35, with kids, grandkids, anyone who has been through the highs and the lows of life will feel this one. Younger people who think they know how the Academy will vote will underestimate the film's power. My prediction. But you're right about box office - that is its only potential stumbling block at this point.

The bottom line here isn't which film is "Academy friendly" but which film will tower above all others at year's end. Which film will be the best of the nominated five by a majority vote; it doesn't matter so much what one or two people think.

comment #13

buckzollo says ...

I'm picking up what you are laying down Wells. I have seen and liked many recently including: Slumdog, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road and Australia. I believe in Milk and Button, but have not yet seen either. Batman? come on; that Oscar is 1billiondollars. When I saw SD in Telluride, I totally dug it but was even more totally taken aback when a q&a-er asked Boyle if his Oscar speech was written. Anyway I have left all of these blue chip oscar wannabes building lists of best actors but completely uncertain that any was the ONE. Might the Oscar race be in a recession?

comment #14

K. Bowen says ...

I don't understand the resistance in H-Town to the idea of The Dark Knight as a Best Picture candidate. It's arguably the best studio picture of the year. It's made a zillion dollars. It's filled with ideas and ambition. It would grab viewers who otherwise wouldn't watch the Oscar telecast. Who's going to tune in to watch a field of Milk, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, Revolutionary Road and Slumdog Millionaire? How much better would it be to have The Dark Knight in that field?

I was at a second-run theater last night, and for whatever reason, in the lobby, i was thinking about Apocalypse Now. . And it crossed my mind, how many filmmakers today would even try one of those gargantuan set pieces, much less that many in one film? Then I caught a trailer for The Dark Knight, and I remembered, "Well at least one."

comment #15

YND says ...

@MikeSchaefer -- Didn't mean to imply that there won't be SLUMDOG detractors. (Has there EVER been a movie without detractors?) Just saying that I think this year, with this field of competitors, it's got a good shot at gaining the kind of support that wins the big prize.

In similar years with no major "Oscary" frontrunners, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE and JUNO both came close with feel-good crowd appeal, but the Academy was able to honor major, previously-unOscared filmmakers in Scorsese and the Coens. There aren't any Lifetime Achievement Best Picture options in this race. It seems like a pretty clear field, politically-speaking.

I agree that I don't see any acting nods coming out of SD. But there weren't acting nods for popular faves like THE FULL MONTY or FOUR WEDDINGS AND A FUNERAL either. And unlike in '98 and '94, there's no Goliath like TITANIC or FORREST GUMP whose Oscar dominance is assured.

As you point out, it will be interesting to see how Middle America reacts to it. Will they like it more than NO COUNTRY? Maybe. Will they like it more than CRASH or THE ENGLISH PATIENT? Almost definitely. More than GLADIATOR? Probably not. But Middle America and the Academy have never been synonymous. (FWIW, I'm willing to bet my blue collar Minnesota parents will enjoy it.) And based on what I've been seeing, it hasn't been critics "falling all over themselves" about it, it's been audiences. I don't really see how it's "trendy" to like the movie either -- it's just generally a very likable movie. (From what you wrote, you didn't like the movie... and you STILL liked the movie.)

Of course, it's all speculation. Frankly, I care a lot less about whether it wins an Oscar than that I love the film. It hasn't been a fantastic year for film as far as I'm concerned, so having SD show up was just a very pleasant surprise.

comment #16

YND says ...

Also, since I'm clearly procrastinating doing real work, I think the idea of a DARK KNIGHT nomination would be cool and pretty well-deserved. But will people forget the complaints about the excessive running time and a title character who's not nearly as interesting as the movie that surrounds him? (Wait, this is starting to sound like the BENJAMIN BUTTON reviews...)

comment #17

K. Bowen says ...

Excessive running time? Tons of Oscar winners have been three hours. TDK doesn't feel that long, IMO.

As long as they remember the exciting, intelligent, cinematically ambitious movie that surrounds the character, it should be fine.

comment #18

MikeSchaeferSF says ...

YND: When I say "trendy" I mean it's warmed-over Dickens with a multi-culti sheen, and critics (who are indeed gushing -- 85 on Metacritic, with lots of "100" scores) feel good about praising something that takes World Cinema and throws it into a blender. Imagine the same story with a trailer-trash white kid in a setting of rural povery and meth labs -- same reviews?

I suspect Milk (haven't seen it yet, but one of the best trailers of the year) will also get a lot of gushing reviews; the Prop 8 thing can only help that. Which is to say critics are human, and can sense the zeitgeist as well as anyone else.

comment #19

YND says ...

Mike, that movie sounds awesome! Except I'd make it heroin instead of meth and call it TRAINSPOTTING. (Seriously though, even with a bunch of hardcore heroin use, dead babies and a nihilistic ending, that movie still got stellar reviews and a nom for Best Screenplay from the conservative Academy.)

And yeah, that MILK trailer's gold.

comment #20

scooterzz says ...

based on what i've seen so far (granted, this doesn't include bb or rev road) milk is my pick for frontrunner.....this'll probably change but i can't imagine milk not being in the top five....

comment #21

John Y says ...

I saw "Milk" last night, and I think it has a strong shot at taking Best Picture. Not only is it a great film with a sensational lead performance, but it's socially relevant, especially considering the recent political events in California.

And, most importantly, the film grabs hold of your heart. Maybe I'm more susceptible to the film's message than others, but I imagine a lot of people will be tearing up by the film's conclusion.

I think the Best Pic race is down to "Milk" and "Benjamin Button," with perhaps a fight from "Slumdog Millionaire" and "Revolutionary Road." "The Dark Knight" will be nominated, but that'll be its reward.

comment #22

bmcintire says ...

The question of "The Academy" nominating a film to make a good show is ridiculous. Either you like THE DARK KNIGHT or you don't. It still comes down to single ballots, and no one but the producers of the show are going to be thinking about what would best bring in a ratings bonanza for the telecast when making their picks.

As for a sappier and schmuckier and schtickier BENJAMIN BUTTON, it's a shame there couldn't have been some tween vampires in it. Jeffrey would have swooooooned.

comment #23

K. Bowen says ...

I don't recall saying that it's to make a good show. I'm saying that if The Dark Knight to nominate they'll be passing up a deserved nominee AND shooting themselves in the foot as far as interest in the Oscars.

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