comment #1

D.Z. says ...

They may be down, but HSM3 and Saw V should probably have already made their money back by now; and I imagine that was the only important thing for the studios behind those flicks. Zack and Miri will, like most Smith flicks, make its money back on video.Rogen is still a cult actor right now; so maybe 'Hornet and/or Pineapple Express on dvd will fix that. If Kevin wants to win over the Apatow crowd, he needs to hook movie-goers with a simple premise, and build the dirty jokes around that premise. The problem with Zack and Miri's marketing was that he briefly mentions the love story with the characters, while putting more emphasis on the risque humour.

comment #2

Mark G. says ...

Steve Mason got it all wrong. If Halloween falls on a Friday the internal weekend multipliers are much higher than on a regular October weekend. Thus his weekend estimates are way too low...

comment #3

D.Z. says ...

Mark: You sure about that? I saw more people going other places on Halloween than the theater. [And if they stay up late, then they might be too tired to go out on Saturday.]

comment #4

Mark G. says ...

@D.Z.
Just look at some internal multipliers from 5 years ago (the last time Halloween fell on a Friday):

4.53 Scary Movie 3
4.83 Radio
2.92 Texas Chainsaw Massacre
4.52 Mystic River
4.09 Runaway Jury
4.77 Kill Bill 1
6.17 School of Rock
5.45 Good Boy
4.43 Intolerable Cruelty
3.74 In the Cut
4.39 Under the Tuscan Sun
6.72 Lost in Translation
4.43 Out of Time

As you can see these IMs are much higher than the usual October IMs...

comment #5

Teacher's Pets says ...

I think any weakness for Zack and Miri may have more to do with the tameness of the advertising campaign...I know their original posters got knocked down by the MPAA, but that didn't mean everything had to look like a PG-13 American Pie rip-off...I didn't even see any hard-R guerrilla marketing beyond the one "trailer" on Smith's site that had to be pulled...

comment #6

actionman says ...

wow, I am shocked that Zack and Miri flopped. Shocked.

Seeing it today. Looking forward...

comment #7

corey3rd says ...

Put a fork in Harvey Weinstein. His touch is gone. This guy couldn't run a Starbucks next to an AA office.

And imagine the joy of anyone backing Seth in the Green Hornet or Tarantino's Basterds.

And opening a film on Halloween night - that's on a Friday? This would have done better on Good Friday. This Christmas, someone needs to give Harvey a calendar with real holidays listed in large icons.

comment #8

Marcello says ...

Mark is completely right (though I of course have no idea what his numbers mean). Do you know anyone who went to the movies last night? Theaters will be swamped tonight.

comment #9

btwnproductions says ...

So what happened to the $15-20 million CHANGELING numbers? Did anyone really expect that? Headlining the tabloids doesn't necessarily translate into boffo b.o. I would have expected CHANGELING to gross $20 mlllion in its entire run.

comment #10

Meegosh says ...

I'm kind of surprised about Saw. I thought horror movies around Halloween did better than that. Maybe this will convince them the Saw phenomenon is over. I stopped watching after the second one, couldn't believe how stupid all those people were to fall for those traps. I was aware a third one was made, but when I saw that Saw 5 was coming out I was completely surprised, don't remember hearing anything about the 4th one.

comment #11

The Winchester says ...

With Zack and Miri, not once in any of the ads did they seem to mention that it was a Kevin Smith film. At first, I thought it was a decent idea, but now I realize they should have sold it more off his name.

The MPAA nonsense that prevented them from getting a trailer to play before Pineapple Express and Tropic Thunder was also probably not a good thing, either.

comment #12

George Prager says ...

Kevin Smith makes a bowel movement. People didn't know that it was a Kevin Smith movie and that's why it tanked. I guess Jay and Silent Bob (America's best comedy combination since Tango & cash) should've been in it.
I guess that means a CLERKS III is now in the works.

comment #13

Edward says ...

I worked an HS Football game last night, which was probably more entertaining then HSM3. Changeling and Z&M might have good legs and do steady business.

comment #14

raskimono says ...

To Marcello.

Mark's numbers mean that whatever the Friday numbers were for those movies, to get the final numbers for the weekend, you would have to multiply by the numbers posted.

Thus Zack and Miri is looking at $9m minimum and probably $10m instead of Jeff's $7m estimate.

comment #15

Hallick says ...

Come on, who's really surprised? Zack and Miri just didn't have the campaign. I never saw a glimmer in the tv commercials of any of the greatness (much less goodness) that was reported from some of the advanced screenings. If I didn't know it was a Kevin Smith movie already, I would've guessed somebody was dumping a cheapie Seth Rogen movie on the market and walking away. Maybe they'll get a second life on home video.

comment #16

corey3rd says ...

Kevin Smith's name means very little compared to the box office action that Seth's been pulling for the last year plus. Seth is the face of Knocked Up and Pineapple Express. And now he's come up with a movie that has royally come up short to end his hot streak. And it's not even like he tried to go all Spanglish. This wasn't a career changing role. This was in his sweet spot.

I blame marketing for cutting together a teaser that looked like this was supposed to debut as a Comedy Central original.

Perhaps the disgust at that crummy animated Clone Wars movie has completely cooled off any box office action for a film with a Star Wars theme?

comment #17

great scott says ...

$20 million for Changelling? HA! Why is tracking always so far off on Universal releases? Leatherheads was going to open with $20 million last April and didn't come close either.

comment #18

great scott says ...

The #1 film is only going to gross $9.5 million? Guess it's time to start the "box office slump" articles again.

comment #19

Hallick says ...

"I blame marketing for cutting together a teaser that looked like this was supposed to debut as a Comedy Central original."

BINGO - That's it, that is exactly it.

comment #20

gradystiles says ...

great scott: "Tracking" didn't project $20 million for Changeling. Wells did. No clue where he got that number. No one else who actually uses tracking data predicted anything close to $20 million for it, especially with an 1800-screen release.

comment #21

D.Z. says ...

Mark: Most of those films did not come out the same week as Halloween.

Teacher: I think the fact that it was an August movie being released in October is what hurt it.

corey: Harvey never had a touch in the first place. As for Hornet, I have more confidence in it than 'Bastards, assuming that Dragonball doesn't destroy Chow's career here.

"Perhaps the disgust at that crummy animated Clone Wars movie has completely cooled off any box office action for a film with a Star Wars theme?"

You mean disgust for the prequels. ^_- I'm gonna feel sorry for those Fanboys guys, though.

Marcello: More people might show up tonight, but will that make up for the lower numbers?

btwn: Changeling suffered the same problem as L.A. Confidential. The current audience is too young too be interested in the city in the old days.

Meegosh: Nope. We'll be getting at least a Saw VI, since this sucker was cheap enough that it's already a hit for the studio, even if it flops the second weekend.

comment #22

corey3rd says ...

Harvey used to have the touch. Every year he's work the magic to make Miramax the big indie of the batch. But now, he's complete lead.

And having Rogen's earning power go into the tank isn't going to help the project. Do you not remember how Phillip Seymour Hoffman was a lock to get the lead in Conspiracy of Dunces until that Love Liza film opened and vaporized. His payday in New Orleans was wiped out.

comment #23

D.Z. says ...

corey: No, he only was really successful under Disney. Most of his films before that were hits or misses. Also, after Love Liza, Hoffman won an Oscar for Capote; so I'm not sure if that analogy works.

comment #24

TVMCCA says ...

And here are Steve's revised numbers as of 9:30 p.m. Pacific time Saturday:
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $13M, $3,585 PTA, $59.7M cume
2. Changeling (Universal) - $10.5M, $5,676 PTA, $11.17M cume
3. Saw V (Lionsgate) - $9.1M, $2,951 PTA, $44.82M cume
4. NEW – Zack & Miri Make A Porno (Weinstein) - $8.5M, $3,108 PTA, $8.5M cume
5. NEW – The Haunting of Molly Hartley (Freestyle) - $4.6M, $1,735 PTA, $4.6M cume

comment #25

Mark G. says ...

See comment No. 2.... :-)

comment #26

D.Z. says ...

Mark: It's still pretty weak for Changeling and Zack and Miri.
HSM3 doesn't surprise me one bit, but, like I said before, no matter what happens its second weekend, it's a win-win for Di$ney.

comment #27

xufeidi says ...

bridalpapa wedding dress wedding dress
Couture Wedding Dresses Couture Wedding Dresses