comment #1

The InSneider says ...

BINGO! I'm predicting the same 5 as of last night. I love The Wrestler and Doubt more than any of those films (Button aside, haven't seen it) but in the end it was hard to justify their inclusion as I haven't met anyone as passionate about Doubt as myself, some 42 West girls and the people who worked on the movie. It's a shame, but the Milk buzz is too loud to ignore and everyone respects Ron Howard, who has been getting some of the best reviews of his career.

comment #2

The InSneider says ...

Oh yeah... shameless plug: www.theinsneider.blogspot.com. Just in case you were wondering.

comment #3

Flash Gordon says ...

It could happen. For one thing, I'm not convinced Frost/Nixon is going to make it. Did anyone read Manohla Dargis review in the New York Times? That had to be the most shrug-of-the-shoulders movie review I've ever read. Lady, we just want to know one thing: Did you LIKE the movie or not? I had to go to Rottentomatoes.com to find out if the review was positive or negative.More reviews like that one and it might not seem like a lock to be nominated.

comment #4

Flash Gordon says ...

Oh, and who does Ron Howard have to blow in order to get a good review in the New York Times? Dargis even dumped on Cinderella Man and that was a damn good movie.

comment #5

Dan Revill says ...

Well the WB officially announced the re-release of TDK on January 23rd. The question is who will go? I've seen it a few times in the theater, and I'll be picking up the Blu-ray.
There will probably still be a few Oscar nominees just coming out that will need to be seen before I even consider another TDK go-around. Then again...in IMAX it is glorious.

comment #6

DarthCorleone says ...

I saw both Frost/Nixon and Milk in the last couple weeks, and while I think they are both very good in terms of acting and serving as interesting historical fiction(Milk moreso), neither grabbed me visually as Best Picture material. If that and Dark Knight are 60 percent of the field, I can't see myself getting too excited about the Oscars. I'm planning to see Slumdog and Button in the next week; if this indeed is the field, this will be the earliest I've checked all five nominees off my watch list - whatever that means.

comment #7

Josh Massey says ...

The AICN crowd seems sure the Dark Knight re-release will give it the $70 million it needs to overtake Titanic.

I'm thinking it will be a lot closer to $700,000.

comment #8

NDH says ...

I have the same five predicted as well. Right now, at least, It seems fairly obvious (and anyone not buying into The Dark Knight getting nominated is just kidding themselves at this point). I'm hoping for a last minute switch up though, like Revolutionary Road taking the place of Frost/Nixon or Milk. Otherwise, it'd be kinda boring to wake up on nomination day only to find that everything was set in stone a month and a half in advance. But I guess we'll know more when a lot of the precursors are out of the way.

comment #9

ZayTonday says ...

If TDK ended up winning I would be happy. IMO it's just as worthy as Slumdog and Button. I havn't seen the other two though.

comment #10

ZayTonday says ...

Also, if you haven't seen it in IMAX, DO IT. It's AMAZING.

comment #11

perceptions says ...

Much prefer "Revolutionary Road" over "Frost/Nixon.

comment #12

John Cocktosten says ...

I strongly dislike TDK. It reminds me of a telenovela mixed with masked wrestlers, and reflects human nature just about as well. Take away Heath and you've got a more reasonable success along the lines of Batman Begins.

I'm glad people love it, more power to them. Just please don't ask me to agree that it is Best Picture material. Although it's better than Chicago.

comment #13

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

What's wrong with Batman Begins + Heath Ledger, John? What else would you nominate this year, hmmm?

comment #14

Joshua Mooney says ...

Thank God for time.

comment #15

K. Bowen says ...

How is Frost/Nixon on these lists? I know the practical reasons. But why does anyone think that film, while perfectly fine, is worthy of any sort of special accolades? It just isn't.

TDK is a film of enormous scale and ambition, and discusses the nature of heroism, generational issues, the Bush administration and the War on Terror, the limits and behavior of a civilized society when faced with the least civilized threats. It's not perfect, but it is definitely outstanding.

comment #16

Edward says ...

Well said K. Bowen.

I've stated many times of my ambivalence towards Ron Howard as a filmmaker. I'll see Frost/Nixon, but don't expect it to be anything more than very well made. As to the other films mentioned; they're all on my to see list, when they make it up here.

comment #17

corey3rd says ...

The Dark Knight gets the added ability that for the next few weeks, it can get the Gladiator promotion bump in order to push the Blu-ray - and if Academy members show up, all the better. Plus you get to have all the bonus features to pimp the various Tech categories.

comment #18

Celebrity Werewolf Hunter says ...

I don't see why The Dark Knight wouldn't be a Best Picture nominee. It was extremely well reviewed, said to be the best of its genre ever made, is the second highest grossing(unadjusted for inflation) film of all time, exceptional cinematography and featured solid and in the case of Ledger exceptional performances.
There was also a much greater opportunity for artistic failure that can come with a film that has a 200 million dollar budget featuring a man who dresses up like a Bat fighting a man dressed as a clown than telling a small intimate story based on a Tony award winning play with the same actors from broadway.

K Bowen also hits the nail on its head with his second paragraph. This isn't spiderman where the message is "with great power comes great responsibility schtick."

I think at the very least it should be nominated for Best Picture, Director, Cinematography & Supporting Actor. I mean Lord of the Rings averaged 10+ nominations a film and all were up for Best Pic.

comment #19

EDouglas says ...

This is pretty much my list although I do expect Frost/Nixon to be bumped in favor of something else.... maybe Australia, just to piss off bloggers and critics... or The Reader or Doubt. The other four are locks as far as I can tell.

comment #20

byanyother says ...

Well it deserves to be nominated, whether or not it will be. It has the strongest reviews, the strongest box office, good acting, even a great performance by Ledger and a solid script - it would be a stupid move for the Academy to ignore what is quite clearly and obviously at least one of the best five films of the year. At least.

comment #21

John Cocktosten says ...

There's nothing wrong with Batman Begins + Heath, though I enjoyed Batman Begins. I also enjoyed Heath, limited though his screen time may be. That, in itself, is ridiculous when you consider the completely superfluous Two-Face story. The obvious choice is Batman vs. Joker, that's plently. When you have an actor of Heath's caliber, I just don't undertstand the choice to bloat the whole proceedings by adding the whole Two-Face story. That can come later.

I disagree that the movie competently illuminated human nature in the light of terrorism, the role of the hero, etc. The movie is a mess, and some of the dialogue made me groan. The action was not particularly well-shot. It did not possess an ounce of grace, nor did it allow itself to have any quiet moments before the next thought-banishing tension setup began.

That the movie is a metaphor for Dubya-based America is all the more depressing. But that ship has sailed; it's on to more coherent, less fear-and-sensory-overload- based filmmaking.

I feel there are certainly five superior candidates for Best Picture. I will, however, be giving it another chance on Blu-ray.

comment #22

Flash Gordon says ...

Ebert just came out with his list of the year's best films. There were 20 titles and Benjamin Button was not one of them. Either it's the only movie left this year that he still hasn't seen, or he didn't like it that much. If the man who almost singlehandedly helped Crash take Best Picture gives the alleged early frontrunner a negative review and the other reviews are not fantastic, it might not even get nominated, much to everyone's surprise. My hunch is he simply hasn't seen it yet and might regret making his list so early and not finding a place for it..

comment #23

BurmaShave says ...

Ebert's list is pretty good, though he omits some of the best films of the year that he himself gave four stars to, and includes some films he grossly overrated (though not LAKEVIEW TERRACE thank god). He is without peer, but I will not entertain a film worldview in which IRON MAN (very good) and especially SYNECDOCHE NEW YORK (terrible, Whiney the Poo) are better than IN BRUGES.

comment #24

Chase Kahn says ...

That is interesting about Ebert not putting BUTTON on his 'Best of List' -- surely he's seen it, but it doesn't mean the review will be negative. As many positive reviews he throws out there these days, he could give it 3 1/2 stars and have it not be in the top 20

comment #25

mitchtaylor says ...

I'd like to thank the Academy...

comment #26

mattn says ...

IIRC, Ebert's top-10 list is based on films that show in the calendar year in Chicago. Does Button open only in NY and LA until 2009?

comment #27

Chase Kahn says ...

It's wide release on the 25th -- Roger Ebert is not going to pass over the most talked talked about 'contender' of the year.

He could still give the movie 3 1/2 stars -- that's what he gave X:FILES, that wasn't anywhere on the list...

comment #28

thatmovieguy says ...

No, mattn: BUTTON goes nationwide on Christmas Day.

comment #29

scooterzz says ...

button screeners weren't delivered until today...maybe he just hadn't seen it yet....

comment #30

p.Vice says ...

Uh oh... Button's not on Ebert's list... I guess that means it really sucks!

Ever hear of thinking for yourself?

comment #31

Dan Revill says ...

Glad to see that Ebert isn't limiting himself to ten or anything.

IIRC, this is the earliest he's released his lists?

comment #32

NotImpressed1Yet says ...

Does IMAX film hold up in the same way regular film does? I saw Quantum of Solace a week after it opened and it was already in rough shape.

comment #33

perceptions says ...

II believe Ebert would have prefaced in his column if he hand not seen "Button, "Changeling", or "Gran Tarino".

He apparently saw them, but was not impressed enough with any of them to place them in his Top 20.

comment #34

perceptions says ...

Oops...correcting typos :)

I believe Ebert would have prefaced in his column if he had not seen "Button, "Changeling", or "Gran Torino".

He apparently saw them, but he was not impressed enough with any of them to place them in his Top 20.

comment #35

byanyother says ...

Ebert explains himself here:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/?p=4575

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