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The Girl on the Train
Boil the snow out of Pete Hammond's 2.20 Envelope piece about possible Oscar stunners, and it comes down to a closer race going on between Best Actress contenders Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep than some people realize.
"A lot of bloggers have been throwing out Melissa Leo as a threat to presumed winner Kate Winslet," he writes. "Really? How can Kate lose? She's on the cover of Time magazine this week so it's over, right?"
Not necessarily, he warns, because "just as in the actor race a strong three-way contest can produce an unexpected result.
"A lot, I mean A LOT of voters have told me they went with Meryl Streep. But A LOT have said the same thing about Winslet. One guy I know voted for Melissa Leo, but apparently many voters outside of the actors branch caught up with her small indie film, Frozen River, quite late in the game even though Sony Classics got it out to the academy first back in September.
"That fresh front-of-mind factor could work in Leo's favor. If it were just actors voting I would make Leo the front-runner. They love her and they've all worked with her, but it's the entire academy voting so the main contest is Streep vs. Winslet. And don't forget there's a lot of academy love for Winslet's film, The Reader. It would indeed be a stunner for me if she lost here.
"But a REALLY close vote between those two could make Leo a real, not imagined, factor."
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 21, 2009 at 7:54 AM
comment #1
jse33
says ...
I hope Leo pulls the upset as she was great in Frozen River. However, if actors love her so much, why didn't she win the SAG award?
Posted by jse33
at February 21, 2009 12:48 PM
comment #2
Gordon27
says ...
Theoretical answer: Because Winslet and Streep were not competing with each other. (Or, rather, not Winslet for 'The Reader'.)
Posted by Gordon27
at February 21, 2009 3:55 PM
comment #3
Gordon27
says ...
I actually said, after I finally saw the movie, the only true shock which is at all possible is Melissa Leo winning.
Posted by Gordon27
at February 21, 2009 3:56 PM
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