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From a purely spitballed perspective, what are the most likely 2009 Best Picture contenders at this point in time? Precious few. The only Coming Soon December releases that look like remote possibilities include James Cameron's Avatar, Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones and Clint Eastwood's rugby-themed Mandela movie.
The only November release that may have a reasonable (but by no means certain) shot is Rob Marshall's Nine. There's nothing at all in the October rundown right now.
There's also -- just blindly speculating -- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's Biutiful,which has no release date and may not be seen until 2010. It'll costar Javier Bardem and Ruben Ochandiano.
One thing's for sure: An Education's Carey Mulligan will be in the running for Best Actress.
Review this Playlist piece from last month called "The 60 Most Anticipated Films of 2009" and you'll see damn few comers.
It's way early, all kinds of exciting manifestations are waiting in the wings and you obviously can't tell anything at this stage, but you'd be hard put to call '09 an exciting-looking year at this stage.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 19, 2009 at 11:49 AM
comment #1
actionman
says ...
Um...Public Enemies...Shutter Island...Tree of Life...The Green Zone...
No way in hell that Avatar gets a bes pic nom. Not happening.
Posted by actionman
at February 19, 2009 12:15 PM
comment #2
actionman
says ...
And something tells me that Lovely Bones is going to be a total wipe-out.
Posted by actionman
at February 19, 2009 12:15 PM
comment #3
EdHavens
says ...
If we look back at this time last year, only Button, Frost and Milk were on the radar. The Reader hadn't even started filming yet, and Slumdog was still some blip on the Warner Independent release schedule.
Posted by EdHavens
at February 19, 2009 12:19 PM
comment #4
Ryansi51
says ...
Shutter Island was an awesomely creepy read- Dennis Lehane is one of my favorites. I don't know the rock i've been under to not hear that Scorsese was doing this with Dicaprio, but that sounds fucking amazing.
Posted by Ryansi51
at February 19, 2009 12:21 PM
comment #5
arturobandini2
says ...
Jeffrey, I haven't seen Education and am eager to do so based on your reaction. But surely you recall Patsy Kensit getting even greater Oscar buzz at Sundance for 21 -- a very similar type of breakout role/movie? In the end, nobody bit and Kensit faded into obscurity after Lethal Weapon 2. Why do we forget so quickly how behind-the-curve the Academy always is?
Posted by arturobandini2
at February 19, 2009 12:22 PM
comment #6
DeafBrownTrashPunk
says ...
maybe 500 Days of Summer? I've been hearing just how damn good that is. It might be "THE LITTLE FILM THAT COULD" hit of the year.
Posted by DeafBrownTrashPunk
at February 19, 2009 12:28 PM
comment #7
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
Michael Mann's Pubic Enemies looks to me as likely to make it into Oscar contention as Miami Vice. Terrence Malick films (and I say this to the Academy's clear discredit) never become Oscar fodder -- never -- so forget Tree of Life. You can totaly forget Shutter Island in this context. There's a definite shot, yes, for Paul Greengrass's The Green Zone but let's keep in mind the Iraq War popcorn movie-audience curse.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at February 19, 2009 12:30 PM
comment #8
Nick Rogers
says ...
Ryan: Only Lehane's prowess at prose kept me going through what I found to be a hugely telegraphed plot twist in "Shutter Island." Given that it's likely to be an "oh shit!" movie moment, I'm curious to see how Scorsese approaches it.
Posted by Nick Rogers
at February 19, 2009 12:31 PM
comment #9
Kristopher Tapley
says ...
Hard put if you're lazy as hell with the research. I think 2009 looks fantastic.
Posted by Kristopher Tapley
at February 19, 2009 12:35 PM
comment #10
actionman
says ...
The Thin Red Line got at least 8 noms, if not 9.
And Public Enemies will be the furthest thing from MV. It's a period crime epic with Depp and Bale. If it gets great reviews and does $100 million in the summer, it'll get nods.
Why should we totally forget Shutter Island? The Departed wasn't "oscar bait" and then look what happened...
The Green Zone, I'm guessing, will be a great film, that nobody will pay to see.
Posted by actionman
at February 19, 2009 12:36 PM
comment #11
actionman
says ...
And I don't mean to discredit Miami Vice in any way, shape, or form. It's one of the best pieces of work of the decade.
Posted by actionman
at February 19, 2009 12:37 PM
comment #12
hunterd
says ...
Weren't you JUSTA talking about how Cannes is gonna be unbelievably stuffed with namebrand filmmakers?
I'm always pulling for Solondz to make another film on par with Happiness (though I actually enjoy Storytelling more). If Happiness came out in 08, it would be all over these nominees. If the academy had any balls that is...which it doesn't
Posted by hunterd
at February 19, 2009 12:43 PM
comment #13
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
The Cannes cineaste mindset is an entirely different deal than the end-of-the-year awards thing.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at February 19, 2009 12:57 PM
comment #14
adorian
says ...
The Last Station with Helen Mirren, James McAvoy, and Paul Giamatti.
Almodovar's Broken Embraces with Penelope Cruz.
Young Victoria with Emily Blunt, Miranda Richardson, and James Broadbent.
1939 with Maggie Smith.
Is The Road going to be released? If so, it should have some acting nominations.
Push-Sapphire should get at least one acting nomination, maybe two.
Tilda Swinton in Julia.
Bright Star with Abbie Cornish.
Posted by adorian
at February 19, 2009 1:08 PM
comment #15
BurmaShave
says ...
How about Mira Nair's AMELIA? Bio-pic, period piece, serious pedigree.
Posted by BurmaShave
at February 19, 2009 1:19 PM
comment #16
jse33
says ...
Checking IMDB, Todd Field is working on a western, Blood Meridian (based on the Cormac McCarthy novel). It says in production with a 2009 date. Based on his limited track record, his movies get nominated for Oscars.
Posted by jse33
at February 19, 2009 1:21 PM
comment #17
dogcatcher
says ...
The Eastwood movie is about rugby, not soccer.
Posted by dogcatcher
at February 19, 2009 1:25 PM
comment #18
BurmaShave
says ...
Also I'm sure Harvey will somehow shove SHANGHAI down peoples throats the way he did THE READER.
Also John Madden's THE DEBT. His films are always terrible, but they always sound like sure things. Maybe he'll finally get it right again.
Posted by BurmaShave
at February 19, 2009 1:30 PM
comment #19
Chase Kahn
says ...
I've heard 'Blood Meridian' is not coming out until 2010, if that. I love Todd Field, though.
Anyone would have to be crazy to not list 'Shutter Island' as the biggest lock to be a Best Picture nominee next year. Obviously it will have the pedestal required to get in (Scorsese, DiCaprio) all it has to do is not completely suck.
Posted by Chase Kahn
at February 19, 2009 1:33 PM
comment #20
Ryansi51
says ...
Nick Rogers: I agree, but I do love the atmosphere he creates, and I can see that translating well to the screen.
Doesn't seem very Scorsesian at all though, right? I too wonder how he'll deal with the twist.
Posted by Ryansi51
at February 19, 2009 1:41 PM
comment #21
Ryansi51
says ...
really don't get why Jeff doesn't even feel like this has a chance. What more could it have going for it?
Posted by Ryansi51
at February 19, 2009 2:00 PM
comment #22
Gordon27
says ...
Off-hand, I'd say it's because it's a thriller... it has a twist ending that has been done at least five times in the last decade... and because they already gave Scorsese his Oscar, for his last movie.
It's possible, sure, but it would have to be pretty damned good. Best shot it has is if they finally decide to give Dicaprio an Oscar, and the movie gets swept along with that (because most movies that win Best Actor get nominated for Best Picture).
I think 'The Informant' will get an acting nod or two, but if it hits hard, it could get some other nominations.
BTW, I have to say, I love a website that has spent the last two months railing about how stupid the Oscars are, the things they get wrong, etc., trying to predict what will get nominated next year in February. Chances are very good that you haven't even heard of the movie that's going to win yet.
Posted by Gordon27
at February 19, 2009 2:12 PM
comment #23
K. Bowen
says ...
Did we decide The Road sucks?
Posted by K. Bowen
at February 19, 2009 2:20 PM
comment #24
hcat
says ...
Ang Lee's Taking Woodstock will be a contender, Mendes has a Dave Eggers scripted comedy for the summer, and Searchlight will again pull something out of its ass at the last minute to great acclaim (heaven forbid if its actually Margaret)
Posted by hcat
at February 19, 2009 2:45 PM
comment #25
hcat
says ...
and I still don't believe that Avatar will be finished on time.
Posted by hcat
at February 19, 2009 2:47 PM
comment #26
Princess of Peace
says ...
Some time agoI read an original screenplay of Public Enemies. It sounds like a good film but not an Oscar type of a film.
According to imdb, Inarritu's Biutiful is supposed to be released on December 11, 2009. Of course, that could change.
How about Alejandro Amenabar's Agora? That could be a possible contender.
But I am sure that there is at least one film waiting in the wings that no one has ever heard of that will make a big splash later on in the year.
Posted by Princess of Peace
at February 19, 2009 2:51 PM
comment #27
Colin
says ...
Avatar? Best Pic nod? You're insane.
There are plenty of good films this year: Public Enemies, Shutter Island, Adventureland, Observe & Report, State of Play, Terminator 4
Posted by Colin
at February 19, 2009 3:08 PM
comment #28
Alex
says ...
Fuck, The Road was delayed until 2010?
Unless you are merely overlooking a definitely (presuming the film captures at least the slightest bit of the book's greatness).
Posted by Alex
at February 19, 2009 3:10 PM
comment #29
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
And you're about 100x more insane for even invoking T4 into the conversation, Colin...
"Fuckin' amateur, man"
Avatar may or may not get a Best Pic nod (just how crazy is it to even talk about that now?), but at the very least, it should at least have a decent Dark Knight/Aliens type showing. The latter actually garnered seven nominations (some of them in pretty "big" categories) back in '87...
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at February 19, 2009 5:19 PM
comment #30
Ethan
says ...
I'd say :
Cheri
Green Zone
Nine
Up in the Air
Movie that nobody has fucking heard of at this point
Posted by Ethan
at February 19, 2009 5:29 PM
comment #31
lipranzer
says ...
After reading Shutter Island, I do agree about the plot twist, but I think Scorsese can make it work. I believe this is going to be his version of SHOCK CORRIDOR, more or less.
The biggies for me this year are that, THE GREEN ZONE, THE TREE OF LIFE, TAKING WOODSTOCK, THE ROAD, PUBLIC ENEMIES, THE INFORMANT, JULIA, and some I'm sure I'm forgetting.
Posted by lipranzer
at February 19, 2009 6:56 PM
comment #32
Daniel Tayag
says ...
Public Enemies = a 30s Heat. I'd say that's an apt description.
Posted by Daniel Tayag
at February 19, 2009 8:08 PM
comment #33
Daviddb
says ...
"Shutter Island" is a genre piece...I'm sure it will be well made, but it's a thriller...it's more "Angel Heart" than "Shock Corridor"...Same thing with "Public Enemies"...another genre piece...Avatar for best Pic? Not gonna happen...tech noms to be sure, but nothing else. Does the academy nominate genre films? Deniro got a nom for Cape Fear so anything's possible. But still...
I was looking forward to seeing "Lovely Bones" until Mark Wahlberg was cast in it...good God...what was Peter Jackson thinking? At least it's not a big part...Saorise Ronan has the biggest part...and Stanley Tucci could be brilliant as the killer...But I read an interview with Susan Sarandon who said that Jackson kept wanting her to go over the top with her performance as the alcoholic granny...Sarandon wasn't so keen on it..but followed her director's advice...oh boy, this could be trouble...
Posted by Daviddb
at February 19, 2009 11:42 PM
comment #34
LYT
says ...
Rob Marshall's Nine is gonna have to change its name, to be distinguished from that Tim Burton-produced cartoon "9" that's opening 9-9-09.
Posted by LYT
at February 20, 2009 3:20 AM
comment #35
markj
says ...
Colin: You seem to have included Terminator 4 on your 'good film' list. Might want to revise that.
Posted by markj
at February 20, 2009 3:50 AM
comment #36
snowback
says ...
What do we think of STATE OF PLAY? The BBC series was one of the best things I have ever seen in any medium, absolutely blood pumping stellar. The movie will never catch that kind of lightning but what have all y'all heard?
Posted by snowback
at February 20, 2009 10:57 PM
comment #37
Colin
says ...
I'm willing to bet T4 does better than Avatar and is better recieved by critics.
Posted by Colin
at February 22, 2009 12:04 PM
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