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Ishtar
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The Seven-Per-Cent Solution (OOP)
(Ross, 1976)
The Devils
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The Pirates of Penzance
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The Fortune
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-30-
(Webb, 1959)
Betrayal
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Play It As It Lays
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The Outfit
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Alex in Wonderland
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The Legend of Lylah Clare
(Aldrich, 1968)
In The Cool of the Day
(Stevens, 1963)
That Cold Day in the Park
(Altman, 1969)
Thumb Trippin'
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Midas Run
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At Long Last Love
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Brewster McCloud
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Outcast of the Islands
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Sh! The Octopus
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Bad for Each Other
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The Phenix City Story
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Run of the Arrow
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House of Secrets
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Saint Joan
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Macabre
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The Fiend Who Walked the West
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Five Gates to Hell
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The Chapman Report
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The L Shaped Room
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The Chalk Garden
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A Thousand Clowns
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You're a Big Boy Now
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The Whisperers
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Dark of the Sun
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Skidoo
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Last Summer
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The Comic
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The Landlord
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Diary of a Mad Housewife
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Tropic of Cancer
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I Never Sang for My Father
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Sometimes a Great Notion
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Marriage of a Young Stockbroker
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The Music Lovers
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Drive, He Said
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The Steagle
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The Last Movie
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Made For Each Other
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The Day the Clown Cried
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Open Season
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Law and Disorder
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Homebodies
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Stardust
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Celine and Julie Go Boating
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At Long Last Love
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Hearts of the West
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Welcome to L.A.
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W.C. Fields and Me
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Citizens Band
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Twilight's Last Gleaming
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Looking for Mr. Goodbar
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Girlfriends
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Movie Movie
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American Hot Wax
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Hot Stuff
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Scavenger Hunt
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Players
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Rich Kids
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Nightwing
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Screams of a Winter's Night
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When You Comin' Back Red Ryder?
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The Awakening
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Simon
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God's Angry Man
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Fast-Walking
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Twice Upon a Time
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Trouble in Mind
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When the Wind Blows
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Housekeeping
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The Glass Menagerie
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Patty Hearst
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Drowning by Numbers
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Haunted Summer
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The Decline of Western Civilization Part II: The Metal Years
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Prospero's Books
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City of Hope
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The Baby of Macon
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King of the Hill
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SubUrbia
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Silver Predicts Henson

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Nate Silver, the numbers-and-poll-crunching whiz kid whose accurate primary and general election predictions were posted last year on fivethirtyeight.com and won him immense respect, has delivered an analysis of the Oscar contenders and delivered one big surprise -- i.e., that Benjamin Button's Taraji P. Henson will win the Best Supporting Actress Oscar. No way. Bank on Penelope Cruz.

Silver claims there's a 71.1% likelihood that Mickey Rourke will win the Best Actor Oscar. The late Heath Ledger has an 85.8% chance of winning the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. (Do ya think so?) Kate Winslet, he says, is a 67.6% favorite over Meryl Streep, who only tallies a 32.4% likelihood. (A voice tells me she might win anyway.)

Best Director contender Danny Boyle, the auteur of Slumdog Millionaire, has a 99.7% chance of winning, and Slumdog Millionaire itself is 99% favored to win Best Picture.

The Atmosphere, Stupid<< previous | next >>No Grades

Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 16, 2009 at 2:59 PM

comment #1

Colin says ...

Why Cruz is receiving all this Oscar talk is beyond me. She has never been a good actress and Vicky Christina Barcelona might be Allen's worst film.

Posted by Colin at February 16, 2009 3:16 PM

comment #2

The InSneider says ...

Poor Nate Silver. Doesn't he know that Henson has 0% shot at winning the gold? In fact, of the 20 actors nominated, I'd say she's #20. Jenkins and Jolie have better chances to win than her. How she got in over DeWitt is a stunning example of the Academy's ignorance.

Posted by The InSneider at February 16, 2009 3:31 PM

comment #3

Chicago48 says ...

IF she wins it will be for Talk to Me and Hustle and Flow.

Posted by Chicago48 at February 16, 2009 3:46 PM

comment #4

DeafBrownTrashPunk says ...

Colin, I agree... Cruz is overrated.

Posted by DeafBrownTrashPunk at February 16, 2009 3:49 PM

comment #5

LeroyBrown says ...

What are his numbers based on?

Posted by LeroyBrown at February 16, 2009 3:56 PM

comment #6

Midwest Doug says ...

From the article: It involved building a huge database of the past 30 years of Oscar history. Categories included genre, MPAA classification, the release date, opening-weekend box office (adjusted for inflation), and whether the film won any other awards. We also looked at whether being nominated in one category predicts success in another. For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) .

The obvious thing missing is "polling" data, though that's hard to come by with Oscars. So the other awards (SAG, etc.) become proxies. My guess is the Henson prediction is due to the box office success for Benjamin Button vs. Vicky Christina. I'll still pick Cruz for my pool. But I've learned not to doubt Silver's analytics.

Posted by Midwest Doug at February 16, 2009 5:14 PM

comment #7

ROTC says ...

I don't think Silver's prediction is as far off the mark as many insiders would like to believe. First, I agree that Cruz's odds for a very good (but no better than that) performance in an utterly forgettable film have been over-hyped. Second, Doubt's Davis and Adams may end up canceling each other out. Third, I think Tomei's tits have unfortunately gotten more buzz than her actual performance. Which leaves Hensen, who IMO was the best, most grounded thing about top nominee Benjamin Button, and who would certainly get my vote in this category.

Posted by ROTC at February 16, 2009 5:26 PM

comment #8

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

Hmmm...Hensen? That could actually happen, actually, for many of the reasons ROTC states (and also because Tomei -- boobs notwithstanding -- already has her Oscar).

Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum at February 16, 2009 6:44 PM

comment #9

Rod32303 says ...

FINALLY someone talking about Hensen, who gave the most moving performance for me IN Benjamin Button. Many of us who are fans have seen her in so many films - the brothers and sisters have known her great work in many films that the masses haven't seen (and, truthfully, needed to be avoided) - Not only Hustle and Flow and Talk to Me, but The Family That Preys, Love and Basketball, Something New, Save the Last Dance...she shines a lot.

It probably still won't go to her, but she's in the game now.

Posted by Rod32303 at February 16, 2009 9:52 PM