Good Times Are Bad
"It's not rocket science," USC academic Martin Kaplan tells N.Y. Times reporters Michael Ceiply and Brooks Barnes. "People want to forget their troubles, and they want to be with other people."
Kaplan is explaining two facts: (1) 2009 ticket sales are up 17.5 % over last year for a tally of $1.7 billion, according to Media by Numbers, and (2) attendance has also jumped by nearly 16 %. Ceiply and Barnes conclude that "if this pace continues through the year, it would amount to the biggest box-office surge in at least two decades."
Which underlines the old adage about the movie business being recession- or depression-proof and then some.
Except it's not. Movie advertising has been down even in the online sector, there's a general feeling of belt-tightening and weltschmerz out there, Warner Bros. recently fired a ton of people, long- and short-term loans are obviously harder to come by due to the general economic slump, fewer journalists attended Sundance six weeks ago and far fewer will attend Cannes, and so on. The bottom line is that the film business is booming as far as ticket sales are concerned, and yet things are looking lean and scary regardless.
Are we clear on that?
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on March 1, 2009 at 6:00 AM
comment #1
Gordie Lachance
says ...
Well sure, as long as the film companies are all owned by the same 3 conglomerates that are sandbagged with worthless newspapers, book publishers, radio stations and other dead media.
And we all know that it doesn't really cost 100 million to make a motion picture. But it does cost 100 million to not show a profit. Which is the whole game, isn't it?
Posted by Gordie Lachance
at March 1, 2009 6:44 AM
comment #2
Deathtongue_Groupie
says ...
All it takes is just a few films that hit the zeitgeist just right to put that many butts in the seats without it being truly significant. Unless you do a David Poland style comparison of the number of films that made over X amount of dollars and what they made during the this period last year to this, it's hard to tell if anything significant is really going on.
Plus the elephant in this analysis is that national cinema-going has dropped so much in the last couple of decades, it doesn't take much to make a "surge" happen when such a small percentage of the population is in attendance.
Yet, Jeff you're also off base because as G. LaChance points out, they're owned by conglomerates and all that belt-tightening is because ALL the companies owned by them are getting trimmed as the corporations try to offset the financial market collapse. And upper management always tries to save itself by cutting the jobs further down the corporate ladder (notice all the V.P's still getting bonuses while others got pink slipped).
Finally, G. LaChance gets it wrong thinking all those "dead media" outlets are worthless when its actually the DEBT the conglomerates racked up acquiring them that's what's killing them. As someone pointed out elsewhere, newspapers are still raking in a lot of money but the crushing debt-load is making it impossible for them to transition to a new business model that gets money from those getting the information from online.
Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie
at March 1, 2009 10:30 AM
comment #3
Phatang!
says ...
Methinks the Times jumpeth the gun.
Posted by Phatang!
at March 1, 2009 11:00 AM
comment #4
corey3rd
says ...
Medea Goes to Jail. has hit #1 for the second weekend. Argue all you can, but it proves that people just want to shut down their brains for 2 hours and are willing to pay $10 a pop - which is cheaper than a shrink. Although in the last few months, I've found myself going to more movies mainly because the DVDs I've received have free movie passes included.
The bigger question is how this is translating to popcorn sales. Are people forking up the big bucks for the extra large box of candy?
Posted by corey3rd
at March 1, 2009 11:21 AM
comment #5
corey3rd
says ...
well this weekend might be a breaking point - the Jonas Brothers movie has royally flopped - $30 million prediction turned into a $12 million reality. So screaming teenage girls have let down the box office surge.
Posted by corey3rd
at March 1, 2009 1:12 PM
comment #6
D.Z.
says ...
You sure ticket sales are up? I don't see it this weekend, unless you're a Tyler Perry fan...Speaking of Perry, I guess beating one of Disney's tween-hit wonders means I gotta give him a thanks if I ever meet him in person.
corey: Actually, this is gonna hurt Katzenberg more than anyone else, since he's been betting on 3-d, and it's clear no one's buying it. Hannah Montana's as good as it gets for attendance in that format; and they probably weren't that impressed enough to pay extra to see it that way for the Jonas Bros.
Posted by D.Z.
at March 1, 2009 1:34 PM
comment #7
D.Z.
says ...
*Katzenberg and Cameron*, *they've*
Posted by D.Z.
at March 1, 2009 1:35 PM
comment #8
corey3rd
says ...
From the reports on the Jonas Bros - there's little reason for the 3-D except in when the boys have these huge hoses aimed at the teenage girls - which is a pretty dirty concept with the concept of "making love to your fans" level
Posted by corey3rd
at March 1, 2009 2:24 PM