comment #1

btwnproductions says ...

Too cerebral; five more middle- to high-brow contestants, with limited boxoffice returns, will really kill the ratings.

Star Trek is exactly the kind of film these slots are for, or so said Sid Ganis yesterday, mentioning Iron Man, Dark Knight, and Tropic Thunder as movies that might have been nominated last year.

comment #2

erniesouchak says ...

Not sure the Malick film will be out in time to make the cut.

comment #3

BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey says ...

Funny People is exactly the type of film that will benefit from this. Unless it's a disaster, which it won't be, consider it a shoo-in.

comment #4

Fudge Ripple says ...

Oh, I think "Up" is a shoo-in for next year. Even if isn't quite as strong as "Wall-E" or "The Incredibles," it'll be something of a make-up nom for passing over Pixar so many times.

comment #5

NightWriter says ...

I agree with btwn. The Academy needs ratings, not more Indie fare on their broadcast, even if this community would appreciate it.

Showing 10 clips will be cumbersome, though. I wonder if they're going to adopt a pseudo-elimination format a la American Idol to build suspense throughout the show. You could go from the Quarterfinals to the Semis to the Finals to the Final Two by the end of the night. I'm being facetious but something more tournament-like might enliven what has become a mercilessly dull TV program.

comment #6

mattn says ...

It's too late now, but I think it would have been better to just add a category along the lines of "Best Crowd Pleaser." This lets movies like The Dark Knight or Iron Man or even Star Trek get recognized for being excellent entertainments that have a little meat on the bone but are still not rich meals like the movies Jeff has listed above. (One could imagine previous winners being movies like Raiders, Die Hard, Jaws, etc.)

comment #7

NightWriter says ...

Why not an Audience Award Oscar? You could text in your votes via the elimination format I proposed. Commercial? Yes. But I've had worse ideas...

comment #8

DeeZee says ...

I'm just wondering if they're ballsy enough to nominate Watchmen.

comment #9

btwnproductions says ...

Jaws and Raiders were Best Picture nominees. Watchmen would be an interesting choice, one I'd support, but it didn't get the boxoffice.

comment #10

Imogen says ...

Slapping movies around because simply because they are animated or popular despite their being enormously successful and critically acclaimed is ludicrous, tiresome and increasingly out of touch with educated contemporary taste. On that basis almost none of the ten pictures nominated in 1939 would make the list.

comment #11

115thDreamer says ...

I bet "The Tree of Life" will have lots of shots of trees in it.... Seriously, though, I had to look up half of these titles on IMDB. So the Mandela-rugby-togetherness flick is now called "Invictus"? Interesting choice. Good for Eastwood, I guess, for not going with "A Coming Together" or some other hokey title. I still think "The Road" is going to be too bleak for a lot of people, especially if they included the "basement" scene, which I think I caught a brief glimpse of in the trailer. Elsewhere, I hadn't heard anything about "Biutiful", with Bardem, so I'm looking forward to that, obviously. But, hey, there's no telling what might sneak in with ten spots available. Jesus, back in the mid 70's, when there were only five spots, "The Towering Inferno" was nominated for Best Picture, let's not forget.

comment #12

DarthCorleone says ...

Instant runoff.

comment #13

Chase Kahn says ...

If "Watchmen" was nominated for Best Picture I'd never watch the Oscars again -- in fact, I'd probably just end it all.

comment #14

Chase Kahn says ...

Also, I'm confused -- a day after Jeff climbs the mountain and shouts down his love for "Public Enemies" it doesn't make his Top 10 choices for a Best Picture nomination?

I realize the list isn't a personal dream scenario, but considering a few of those films don't even have a release date, it seems odd. Especially if, like Jeff suggests, it's got more going on than just a electric machine-gun popcorn film.

comment #15

Ms. M says ...

David Poland may be deluding himself regarding Tetro's chances, but you're doing the same if you think Up doesn't stand a better chance than at least several ones mentioned on this list. And I'd be very surprised if Funny People and Avatar lost out if they are as good as they promise to be. I do agree that Star Trek won't make it, especially if Avatar is in the mix.

comment #16

vulgar71 says ...

I like that list, but I would put Up on it because I think it's the bee's knees.

comment #17

TheJeff says ...

I can't see Tree of LIfe being ready in time.

If Jeff's nominees are accurate (and they actually seem reasonable), that would make three women with best picture nominees in the race -- quite a coup.

comment #18

PastePotPete says ...

I don't buy that this means suddenly we'll see dumb(if entertaining) popcorn films like Star Trek suddenly be nominated. Last year the Dark Knight would've gotten in, sure, but Iron Man? No way.

I'm hugely in favor of this decision to open up the playing field. Think of all the deserving movies to not even get a Best Picture nomination recently:

Children of Men
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Zodiac
City of God

Continuing to ignore films of this caliber is the primary reason *I* am dismissive of the Oscars. Sure, there may be more The Reader or Chocolat level groaner decisions but overall I think this will work out better.

Plus this will likely boost advertising revenue for sites like Jeff's.

comment #19

Alex Stroup says ...

If they want to be open to the possibility of more nominations in years with more great movies I think they should go to this method of voting the nominations:

Every voter picks their five choices for best picture. Then any film that is mentioned on X% (say 40%) of ballots is nominated (fill out to top five if that doesn't produce at least five and cut down ten if it produces more (unlikely if the % is high enough)

If there is a strong consensus of the five best films of the year this might still only result in five and if there are a lot of films with significant support there will be more.

But at least it will be guaranteed that every nominated film has some significant pool of support but still allow expansion of nominations in years when there are many great films.

comment #20

BurmaShave says ...

Wells you went that apeshit for PUBLIC ENEMIES and you still can't see it making it into one of the ten slots?

comment #21

KC says ...

Can not even imagine how pumped Judd Apatow must be to be dropping his cancer movie this year.

And while it would indeed be cool to see the predicted noms come through with a few films directed by women, I think I'll wait to see if any of them make it into Best Director.

comment #22

George Prager says ...

On second thought, this is going to be a disaster. Every thing will have to be represented, i.e, the Comedy, the Blockbuster, the Indie, the black movie, the gay movie, the chick flick, the foreign film...they'll do it once and then change it back to five movies.

comment #23

Kristopher Tapley says ...

Since when is Universal distributing Biutiful? Focus has the foreign rights but I don't think anyone has domestic yet.

comment #24

Kristopher Tapley says ...

Green Zone is also looking more and more like a 2010 thing. I feel the same way about Malick's flick.

comment #25

bluefugue says ...

>But Up needs to stay in its own Best Animated Feature slot -- there's nothing wrong with beautiful Mexico so Rio Grande crossings are unnecessary.

Down with arbitrary Great Walls of China; a movie is a movie; and a great animated film deserves to stand and be counted alongside its peers. (Not that Up is necessarily that good... but The Incredibles would have been a worthy 2004 Best Picture nominee, or Pinocchio in 1940, etc.)

I enjoyed Star Trek but it isn't remotely good enough to be a Best Picture nominee.

comment #26

MovieBob says ...

They couldn't have picked a better year to start doing this - the startlingly low quality of 2009's blockbuster fare means that this year's ten list will still mostly be indie-ish dramas and maybe a "high" comedy or two... removing the "extra sting" to the old-guard snobs at seeing genre flicks on the roster. Imagine if they'd done this LAST year, what a fucking COW the establishment critics and bloggers would've had at seeing Batman and Iron Man sharing a highlight reel with Harvey Milk and Latika? Right now, MAYBE Star Trek has a shot at a nod as this year's "big" fare goes. I'll also hazard a guess that anyone who's thinking of releasing an awards flick in 2011 had best just stay home... this new system all-but garauntees MASSIVE momentum for the Harry Potter conclusion.

As it stands now, the NEXT big thing you'll see in reaction to this (within the next week or so, I'd say) is an EXPLOSION of "fanboy" petition-sites gearing up aiming to pressure Warner Bros. into making a big push for "Watchmen" - which will be right in the middle of becoming exponentially more popular on DVD when awards-season starts up. Hell, I know I'll sign it...

comment #27

The InSneider says ...

I'm fairly certain the Malick film will not be ready til 2010. Also, guys, The Road has ZERO shot at a BP nomination. What I saw was good, and I'm sure the final cut will be even better, but I don't see it as an awards movie at all.

comment #28

streeter says ...

Wow... looks like Ebert accidentally gave out Bill Condon's e-mail address: http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090624/OSCARS/906249995

comment #29

StoneFan1 says ...

"Public Enemies" WILL BE nominated even with middle of the road box office results. No acting noms to be sure, but it could rake in quite a few noms in the tech. categories.

comment #30

EDouglasCS says ...

Tetro looked nice but was mostly awful... bad storytelling, overacting by Gallo... I highly doubt anyone who works in the film industry would see that and say "This is the Best Picture of the year" and you'd need a good percentage of the membership to put it as their #1 or 2 choice to get in there even with ten slots. Hurt Locker could stand a chance if most people hadn't already seen it in 2008... remember that it was nominated for Independent Spirits for last year which means it would be hard for people to consider it new enough to get into this year's BP race. Public Enemies is a definite IMO... has all the right elements to win over the Academy, including a strong supporting performance by recent Oscar winner Marion Cotillard. We'll have to see what comes out later this year to see if Mann can get in though.