Sunday Tallies

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Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs took the #1 spot with a three-day haul of $42,500,000 and a five-day haul of $67,506,000, averaging $10,368 per situation. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen took a 61% hit from last weekend's opener with earnings of $42,500,000 -- expected. And yet it's only $7 million away from a $300 million gross. Public Enemies was third with a three-day take of $26,172,000 and a five-day haul of $41,044,000, averaging an overall $7,850 per situation.

If Enemies triples its three-day opening figure, it'll end up with a little more than $75 million, give or take. It would obviously look better on the ledger sheet if it ends up cresting $100 million. But will it? $7850 per situation isn't all that terrific.

The best per-screen average anywhere was earned again by The Hurt Locker. Kathryn Bigelow's edge-junkie film expanded from 4 to 9 screens this weekend, and took down $126,000. The total gross stands at $365,000.

I'm guessing that most megaplex morons will most likely steer clear of The Hurt Locker because...well, because they're primitive types who tend to get all queasy when they sense complexity. But it's clearly starting to catch on and stands a better-than-decent chance of taking in a good $30 million or so. That's an appropriate amount for one of the two or three best films of the year so far...no?

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on July 5, 2009 at 11:15 AM

comment #1

agrayesq says ...

The "I love when things go boom" crowd will miss a great chance to actually see and hear things go boom because when dialogue interferes with the booms they're minds go boom.

Posted by agrayesq at July 5, 2009 12:02 PM

comment #2

MathewM says ...

Jeff being the boob that he is continues to be a poor analyst for what works with the American movie theater going public.

First, because Public Enemies looks like an overlong made for tv movie starring A-list talent it will be a bigger hit on video (this fall) than it is in theaters this summer. Second, if The Hurt Locker is as good as the critics are making it out to be and tells a story instead of trying to prove a point (which is the failure of most war films made in the past twenty years or so) it will be a moderate success theatrically. People still want escapism when it comes to summer films but the "knuckle draggers" (as you cynically call them) will pay hard earned money for films that are both entertaining and good for them.

Posted by MathewM at July 5, 2009 12:15 PM

comment #3

sumo-pop says ...

With 41m in the bank and the two top releases next week being Bruno and I love you Beth Cooper, I see PE having a real shot at $100m. 75m should be easy.

I love how MatthewM calls Jeff a boob and then refers to PE as "Public Enemies looks like an overlong made for tv movie." Whatever you think of Mann, his flicks don't look like made for tv crap. What a well, er...boob.

Posted by sumo-pop at July 5, 2009 12:19 PM

comment #4

hollyman says ...

Bottom line PE did not make the money it was predicted to make. Next week the movie will lose even more steam because Ice Age will still be strong and so will Transformers. Universal will have it make the money back on Home Video. Yet again another brilliant move by Universal releasing PE this time of year...

Posted by hollyman at July 5, 2009 1:33 PM

comment #5

gradystiles says ...

hollyman, Public Enemies actually made more than Universal was anticipating it would do this weekend, so I'm not sure what you're talking about.

Just like I said when people on here were tossing around guesses of $18 million opening or $60 million total, such ideas were moronic. And, again, its release date was fine. There's zero evidence to indicate it would have (or could have) done better at any other time of the year.

Posted by gradystiles at July 5, 2009 1:55 PM

comment #6

hollyman says ...

Grady: The release was not fine. To release a film like this 4th of July weekend is just not smart. They will have a hard time justifying that no matter what. Next weekend it will drop down to #5, #6 if they are lucky.....

Posted by hollyman at July 5, 2009 2:28 PM

comment #7

gradystiles says ...

Maybe Universal should hire you to work in distribution and scheduling then, since you clearly know more about it than they do...

Posted by gradystiles at July 5, 2009 2:33 PM

comment #8

Moises Chiullan says ...

It all depends on how well the studio plays good ads on TV during the right shows. There were some military guys at the SXSW screening, and they thought it was brilliant, so hopefully that word of mouth has spread.

Posted by Moises Chiullan at July 5, 2009 2:44 PM

comment #9

DeeZee says ...

I'm surprised hollyman has that kind of confidence in TF 2, since it'll probably be gone by next weekend. The series is a one-and-a-half-hit wonder, and that's about it. It's just a shame, for Stone, that it'll be Shia's last hit before Wall Street 2.

Posted by DeeZee at July 5, 2009 3:38 PM

comment #10

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

Consider this: TRANSFORMERS performance is even worse than it appears because the holiday is propping it up. It probably would have crashed like 70% or better.

I love when crappy tent poles suffer poor word of mouth.

Posted by Deathtongue_Groupie at July 5, 2009 3:39 PM

comment #11

Rodrigo says ...

Consider the wave of commercial fever that fueled the kinetic escapist import "Taken" past $140 million in domestic B.O. after numerous release delays and a muscular opening over Super Bowl weekend, when male audiences notoriously stay glued to the gridiron and ignore theatrical product.

As it has been cemented into the foundations of every piece of anticipatory commentary since the film's premiere early last fall, we're all very aware that "The Hurt Locker" has to overcome to dreaded Iraq war movie curse, which crippled the fates of the earnest, weepy, partisan string of dramas that limped through theaters in the fall of 2007 and made only enough noise between them all to register for collective notoriety and dissolve into oblivion.

"The Hurt Locker" is nothing like those sentimental turds, and if handled properly, audiences will bite. BIG. The precisely measured roll-out over the next few weekends is vital to building word-of-mouth, but Summit has this one in the bag: they went from a first frame on 4 screens to 9 this weekend, with 50 or so sites to come next weekend, and from there they can start amping things up in direct response to commercial momentum.

Once TV ads touting the best action movie of anyone's life start popping up on the mainstream radar, without a trace of the perpetual threat of a political sermon or weeping army wives to draw any real line back to the 2007 onslaught, the megaplex morons are going to rally. There's no real action competition opening until August 7, when G.I. Joe is set to launch and looks primed for underperformance, especially if word-of-mouth momentum keeps adults coming strong to the guaranteed goods in store in "The Hurt Locker" as opposed to the dismal-looking G.I. Joe mess. We'll see.

Posted by Rodrigo at July 5, 2009 4:37 PM

comment #12

Sonic Boom says ...

$41M for the 5-day is actually a very good performance for PE. That said, I'm not sure WOM is solid enough to give it the legs for $100M.

Posted by Sonic Boom at July 5, 2009 4:37 PM

comment #13

hollyman says ...

Grady: I've been in the entertainment business for a number of years I don't claim to be a wizard like you claim. But I know it doesn't take a genius to figure out how or when to release a movie likes PE. This is not a summer movie. If you are going to release a movie likes PE than do it not a holiday weekend. If Universal claims they want to award consideration than do it in November. Oh yeah Grady I guess I can't be the only one who is thinking what the hell is Universal doing. http://www.nypost.com/seven/06292009/business/las_summer_suit_176637.htm

Posted by hollyman at July 5, 2009 8:30 PM

comment #14

Matt S says ...

It be nice if "The Hurt Locker" would open in the surburbs. I hate having to drive an hour and half with traffic to see a movie. There's plenty of people who don't live in big cities who still want to see intelligent films.

Posted by Matt S at July 5, 2009 9:58 PM

comment #15

DeeZee says ...

I'm guessing Universal thought it would make more money in the summer, because Depp was the lead. Anyway, I'm just wondering why the company let Meyer slide for so long, when it hasn't had a really big hit since Van Helsing. I'd imagine taking the losing side of the format war should've been the breaking point.

Posted by DeeZee at July 5, 2009 10:03 PM

comment #16

gradystiles says ...

holly, I fail to see what the article you linked to has to do with Public Enemies' release date.

Posted by gradystiles at July 6, 2009 4:13 AM

comment #17

Myles says ...

Universal is thrilled with PE's opening five days. They thought they had a major bomb on their hands and now they think they might actually turn a profit on it.

Posted by Myles at July 6, 2009 7:28 AM

comment #18

Myles says ...

And I agree: hollyman is way off base in this thread.

Posted by Myles at July 6, 2009 7:29 AM

comment #19

StoneFan1 says ...

The real test for "PE" will be how it fares internationally. It must make about $260 million worldwide to break even.

Posted by StoneFan1 at July 6, 2009 8:28 AM

comment #20

DeeZee says ...

Stone: It's a cheap production, by its standards, so it doesn't have that concern. It's Land of the Lost which needs to make that kind of money.

Posted by DeeZee at July 6, 2009 6:41 PM

comment #21

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Posted by micamayer1 at July 6, 2009 7:07 PM

comment #22