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Ten questions and observations about the forthcoming free showings of a 16-minute Avatar reel -- a nationwide event that Cameron has called "Avatar Day" -- at over 100 IMAX theatres on Friday, 8.21, or eight days hence:
(1) The only way to get tickets will be to visit the Avatar website a few minutes before noon Pacific/3 pm Eastern on Monday, 8.17, and click away at the very top of the hour and hope for the best. Oh, puhleeze pick me and damn you to hell's caverns if you don't! Damnyoupickmedamnyoupickpickmedamnyoupickme.... pickme! Will the website crash/freeze from all the traffic? Will visitors be given a pair of tickets or will it be strictly one-per-customer? Update: A pair, according to Fox distributon chief Bruce Snyder.
(2) Suggestion: the Avatar site administrators should allow people to log on and join a queue starting at 12:01 am Pacific/3 am Eastern on Monday, 12.17, just as hard-ticket sellers allow hardcore buyers to line up on sidewalks hours before. It should be technically arranged that only those in the online queue who refresh the page at regular intervals (i.e., once an hour or once every 30 minutes) will be allowed to stay in the queue. This will keep out the pikers (i.e., those who will log in at midnight/3 am and then go to sleep).
(3) How will the chosen be verified and admitted? One way would be to send a bar code pass of some kind to their email box and then tell them to bring a print-out. Except this would result in thousands of illegitimately-copied passes presented at the door. The only way to avoid this is for the chosen to be allowed to go to theatre ticket windows and ticket-dispensing machines in advance of the Friday, 8.21 showings and pick up their tickets after their driver's licenses or passports have been scanned. Surely the organizers aren't going to request the chosen to line up a couple of hours in advance so their IDs can be individually checked by ushers before receiving their tickets.
(4) As HE reader "Brendan" asked this morning, there are roughly 160 IMAX theatres in the U.S. Which of these will show the Avatar footage? "Over 100" doesn't sound like it'll play in all of them. Where's the list, guys?
(5) Footage from the film that wasn't shown by Cameron at ComicCon will be part of the reel -- cool. Nonetheless, Cameron unveiled 23 or 24 minutes worth of 3D footage in San Diego. Why aren't general audiences being given a chance to see this on top of the new footage, which presumably won't amount to more than a minute or two extra? Why only 16 minutes' worth?
(6) The presumed answer is that exhibitors don't want the two freebie showings -- set to happen at 6 and 6:30 pm -- to cut into regular Friday-night revenues, which is why the unveilings are playing during mom-and-pop dinner hour. Crowds will move in at 5:40 or 5:45 pm, the first 16-minute showing at 6 pm, the crowd evacuated by 6:20 or so, new crowd comes in for second showing which won't start at 6:30 pm but more like 6:35 or 6:40 pm, and second crowd out by 7 pm or so. Which will allow the evening's first regularly paid show to start at 7:30 pm or thereabouts.
(7) Will a certain number of elite online/print press people be given tickets on a side-door basis so as to attend, report and observe (which I hope/intend to do) or will they have to randomly/democratically slog it out with everyone else and hope that fortune smiles?
(8) Avatar's production costs will be a reported $240 million when all is said and done, and the marketing will cost at least another $70 or $80 million...no? (More?) A total investment of $320 million or thereabouts, which means Fox's break-even point will be...I'm not sure. What's the formula these days? It used to be that theatrical revenues had to bring in twice (or two and a half times) the negative cost. Now with explanded overseas, DVD/Bluray and other ancillaries the ratio is a bit lower. Or so I've been told. Will the Avatar break-even need to be $550 million theatrical? I'm not sure any more. I need to sort this through.
(9) As L.A. Times reporters John Horn and Ben Fritz point out, "Advance screenings of movie footage for the press and at events such as Comic-Con are fairly common for big-budget Hollywood releases. But it's unprecedented for a studio to show an extended excerpt of a film in such a broad public setting months before it hits theaters." They also report that "Fox is not paying IMAX to use its theaters for the preview, though the studio is bearing the cost of producing and distributing the digital prints. IMAX will provide 3-D glasses."
(10) An Avatar trailer in all formats (IMAX 3D, IMAX2D, digital 3-D, 35mm 3-D, 35mm flat, online) will be released "next Friday," the Horn/Fritz story says. In other words, tomorrow? They probably mean the trailers will debut the same day as the two-times-only reel.
This will be the most exuberant preview happening since the first-ever showing of the Phantom Menace trailer in November of '98. I was there at the Fox Village theatre. It was that film's absolute finest hour. It was all downhill after it opened, esteem-wise. But the trailer-watching vibe was phenomenal. The house was charged, people were howling, Paul Thomas Anderson was there, etc.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on August 13, 2009 at 4:51 AM
comment #1
Brendan
says ...
Jeff,
Any idea where one can find a list of the "over 100 IMAX theaters" this will be playing at? According to Wki there are more then roughly 160 in the US. Will this be playing at each and every IMAX on the 21st?
Posted by Brendan
at August 13, 2009 7:06 AM
comment #2
berg
says ...
I was told yesterday morning by a theater manager at the biggest IMAX screen in my town that it would not be showing there but rather at smaller digital IMAX screens ...
Posted by berg
at August 13, 2009 7:16 AM
comment #3
SpinDozer
says ...
"It will be two tickets to a customer to keep people from hoarding," Fox distribution boss Bruce Snyder said Wednesday. "We expect a tremendous amount of interest from the fans who are aware of 'Avatar.' "
hoarding?
Posted by SpinDozer
at August 13, 2009 7:20 AM
comment #4
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
Wells to Berg: What town? The theatre manager of what theatre? Why would any sane exhibitor want to show the Avatar preview on "smaller" screens? Does this guy have any P.T. Barnum blood flowing through his veins?
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at August 13, 2009 7:22 AM
comment #5
SpinDozer
says ...
An introduction to the world of Pandora.
On the same date, theaters worldwide will begin showing 2D and 3D "Avatar" trailers of more conventional length.
Bet the list of participatin' screens will be available 9 am eastern/noon Pacific on Monday, 8.17, and not before...
Posted by SpinDozer
at August 13, 2009 7:26 AM
comment #6
Rich S.
says ...
Not to be picky, but pacific is three hours behind eastern. So it would be 9 a.m. eastern 6 a.m. pacific or 9 a.m. pacific, noon eastern So which is it?
Wells to Rich S.: Sorry -- dumb error. The online giveaway starts on Monday at 12 noon Pacific and 3 pm Eastern.
Posted by Rich S.
at August 13, 2009 7:50 AM
comment #7
Burbanked
says ...
That's not picky, Rich. It's rather critical if folks actually want to line up in a timely fashion. I had the same question. Wells clarification: Online giveaway starts on Monday, 8,17, at noon Pacific and 3 pm Eastern.
Posted by Burbanked
at August 13, 2009 7:53 AM
comment #8
Nick Rogers
says ...
I wonder if the 3-D trailer will boost attendance for that X-Games movie or, yikes, help push "G-Force" to $100 million.
Posted by Nick Rogers
at August 13, 2009 7:53 AM
comment #9
p.Vice
says ...
Bullshit!
Posted by p.Vice
at August 13, 2009 7:56 AM
comment #10
BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
says ...
Sounds like a lot of effort for a 16-minute preview. From spending all morning online to get a ticket, to lining up in advance to get a seat... is it really worth it? I'll just wait until the actual film comes out.
Posted by BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
at August 13, 2009 8:04 AM
comment #11
BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
says ...
And how much better does Cameron look in that photo than his recent appearances? He has a proper haircut, not the absurd Darth Vader shaped helmet hair he's rocking now.
Posted by BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
at August 13, 2009 8:09 AM
comment #12
Steven Kar
says ...
And a less bulbous nose, apparently.
Posted by Steven Kar
at August 13, 2009 8:35 AM
comment #13
Steven Kar
says ...
Regarding point #8 in the post, I don't know what the P&A for AVATAR might be, but I'll bet it'll be closer to $150 million to print and advertise in the US and abroad.
Paramount spent $150-175 million on P&A for TRANSFORMERS II (This is from an LA Times article). They also spent $150 million on G.I. JOE's P&A, for God's sake.
Big studio movies such as those will have at least $100 million being spent to promote them, even the ones that everyone knows about. Did Warner Bros. really have to spend $150 million to promote the 6th HARRY POTTER?
Anyway, if AVATAR reaches a production budget of $250 million by the time they're done working on it, and another $150 million for P&A, then I suppose it needs to make at least $730 million worldwide to break even. The studio will keep 55% of that, while theatres hold on to the remaining 45%.
The 55% will be roughly $400 million, which is the movie's total budget/P&A. So I suppose what'll really rake in the dough will be the DVDs, the rentals, the video game, the toys, and the TV rights.
Posted by Steven Kar
at August 13, 2009 8:54 AM
comment #14
bildeaux
says ...
Wells -
Have you seen District 9 yet? Curious what your thoughts would be on it.
b.
Posted by bildeaux
at August 13, 2009 9:01 AM
comment #15
Steven Kar
says ...
It seems that getting the chance to see this thing will be more of a hassle than the time I got tickets to the 2-day Pearl Jam concert at Madison Square Garden.
I think I'll just watch the trailer on my laptop.
Posted by Steven Kar
at August 13, 2009 9:02 AM
comment #16
BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
says ...
How long is Avatar going to be screening on IMAX for? Some of them get a tiny two-week window. I presume since the stakes are so high that Fox has booked at least a month or two.
Posted by BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
at August 13, 2009 9:10 AM
comment #17
markj
says ...
It's nice to have a film to be excited about for a change.
Posted by markj
at August 13, 2009 9:11 AM
comment #18
Catman
says ...
For those of you that are wondering if it's worth it, I wouldn't kill myself doing it, but if you can get the tickets, 3D Imax really is the best way to see if. I saw the 3D Comic-Con presentation and am going to try and see this preview as well before the release in December. Cameron's "Pandora" really is a sight to see even if the blue aliens, dragons, lizard panthers, and "Last of the Mohicans" dialog takes some getting used to. It's a Cameron film guys. He's really one of the only directors willing to take a risk and also push the technology forwards in a very fiscally and cuturally conservative environment. He's worth supporting even if some of it is a little clunky.
Posted by Catman
at August 13, 2009 9:20 AM
comment #19
Steven Kar
says ...
Wonkey Donkey,
It could get as much as 3 months in IMAX theatres, given that the next big IMAX movie will be ALICE IN WONDERLAND which is coming out March 5.
http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/19/imax-clears-a-path-for-what-could-be-a-good-long-run-of-james-camerons-avatar/
Posted by Steven Kar
at August 13, 2009 9:27 AM
comment #20
Joel
says ...
"Other ancillaries" would also include a video game for the PS3 and Xbox 360. Not sure how much those make or how it ties in with the movie budget and revenue.
Posted by Joel
at August 13, 2009 9:34 AM
comment #21
MilkMan
says ...
Jesus Christ.
Posted by MilkMan
at August 13, 2009 10:21 AM
comment #22
The Bandsaw Vigilante
says ...
Second the props for Cameron's haircut in the photo -- hated his "Little Dutch Boy" Comic-Con 'do, and felt he should've at least grown out The Beard of Legend once more to accompany it.
Seriously...I'm talking the Cameron Beard of 1985-86, the one he sported in the Aliens laserdisc interviews. Man, that thing was epic. Zach Galifinakis-epic. Guess Suzy doesn't appreciate the rug-burn, though.
Posted by The Bandsaw Vigilante
at August 13, 2009 11:08 AM
comment #23
BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
says ...
All directors should be forced to have beards. It makes them look more directorly, like they've been up all night in the editing suite and can't be arsed to shave. Not Kathryn Bigelow, though.
Posted by BoshBarnetWonkyDonkey
at August 13, 2009 11:24 AM
comment #24
Steven Kar
says ...
I think it might be more of an American director thing to have a beard.
Posted by Steven Kar
at August 13, 2009 11:28 AM
comment #25
longrunner
says ...
I think I'll just wait for the whole fucking thing to be released. If I'm not already completely turned off it by all the hype by then, that is.
Posted by longrunner
at August 13, 2009 11:50 AM
comment #26
kamichojin
says ...
bildeaux says ...
Wells -
Have you seen District 9 yet? Curious what your thoughts would be on it.
b.
Given the PeterJackson connection, I wouldn't expect a complimentary review from Wells. Personally, I'm really looking forward to seeing it tonight.
Posted by kamichojin
at August 13, 2009 11:57 AM
comment #27
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
Seeing it tonight. I had to beg. They wouldn't invite me out of fear that I would instinctively trash it because Peter Jackson is the producer. But I begged and begged and they finally relented.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at August 13, 2009 1:07 PM
comment #28
bildeaux
says ...
Sweet. I have heard nothing but very good reviews from everyone. I keep hearing it is way more than you expect.
I like the quote that Jackson told Neil (the director) that he gave him 30 mill and said "make the movie you have always wanted, it will never get any better than this."
Hope you dig it.
b.
Posted by bildeaux
at August 13, 2009 1:41 PM
comment #29
Ephemerinko
says ...
For what it's worth, I've seen DISTRICT 9 and it seriously rocks. Sharlto Copley is the new Sigourney Weaver, and the film itself has a strong and proud ALIENS vibe.
Posted by Ephemerinko
at August 13, 2009 2:45 PM
comment #30
Johnny Rocket
says ...
Anyone see the X Games 3D premiere at the Nokia Theatre? 90 minutes of live action sports 3D ... pretty crazy experience. No fancy IMAX marketing plan though.
Posted by Johnny Rocket
at August 13, 2009 8:40 PM
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