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L.A Times/Gold Derby guy Tom O'Neil asked Us Weekly's Thelma Adams, World Entertainment News' Kevin Lewin, Gawker's Richard Rushfield, USA Today's Suzie Woz and myself to suggest the ten most likely Best Picture candidates.
Everyone agreed on The Hurt Locker, Invictus, Precious and Up. I was the only one to stand up the Coen Bros.' A Serious Man, and yet Lewin picked Star Trek....Jesus! I waffled my tenth-place choice, unable to decide if it'll be Inglourious Basterds or District 9. This is strictly a pulse-taking prediction, of course. Only partially to do with my choices for the year's best.
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next >>Saw It
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 28, 2009 at 10:43 AM
comment #1
Colin
says ...
Not that it matters but Inglourious Basterds was much better than District 9.
Star Trek though...
Posted by Colin
at October 28, 2009 11:13 AM
comment #2
Eloi Manning
says ...
It's Complicated as a Best Picture nominee? Seriously?
Posted by Eloi Manning
at October 28, 2009 11:17 AM
comment #3
Eloi Manning
says ...
Sherlock Holmes???????????
Posted by Eloi Manning
at October 28, 2009 11:18 AM
comment #4
Gaydos
says ...
I'm a little caught up in the disequilibration that comes from being totally cynical about virtually every aspect of Michael Jackson's life and work to feeling today that "This Is It" documents what would have been the greatest comeback in entertainment history.
It's got to be a lock for a nom for Golden Globe musical/comedy category and it's not out of the question to run it for Best Picture in the Oscars.
It's a spectacularly powerful documentary/document of an artist whose demons took him out of the game on the verge of his greatest triumph. Cocteau would have liked it. Not sure how many of the contending films would have achieved that distinction.
Posted by Gaydos
at October 28, 2009 11:34 AM
comment #5
Chase Kahn
says ...
I can already tell that "A Serious Man" will be completely dismissed and buried come January -- shocker, the best film of the year won't be recongnized at all...
Posted by Chase Kahn
at October 28, 2009 12:13 PM
comment #6
actionman
says ...
I'll vomit if A Serious Man doesn't get in the top 10.
District 9 definitely deserves a spot. Best sci-fi in years. Again, some puke will make its way up if it's ignored...
Basterds was fun but not top 10 worthy in my eyes...I need to see it again I think...
Star Trek was fun but it's not best-of-the-year-type material.
Posted by actionman
at October 28, 2009 12:27 PM
comment #7
actionman
says ...
And I wonder if The Hurt Locker is going to be the movie that all the critics love but that the Academy shuns. I think it's pretty much a perfect piece of filmmaking, and it's definitely Bigelow's best film, but something about it seems too edgy, too real, too honest and knowing to be taken seriously by the old-folks in the Academy.
I hope I'm wrong.
Posted by actionman
at October 28, 2009 12:30 PM
comment #8
drbob
says ...
From what I've seen, A Serious Man has received almost universal critical praise. And not just praise, but over the top, off the charts praise. Why do critics have such a hard time seeing it as a top 10 contender?
Posted by drbob
at October 28, 2009 12:31 PM
comment #9
Sean
says ...
I liked DISTRICT 9 but I strongly disagree that it was the best sci-fi in years or Oscar-nom-worthy. I'd pick WALL-E, MINORITY REPORT, THE PRESTIGE, CHILDREN OF MEN, MOON and even V FOR VENDETTA and WATCHMEN as nearer the mark in both distinctions.
Posted by Sean
at October 28, 2009 12:39 PM
comment #10
Howlingman
says ...
Look, you're going to have to accept that there wll be popular popcorn munchers residing in the BP category over more critical faves. That's the whole point of doubling the slate of nominated films -- to get people to watch the Oscars.
Posted by Howlingman
at October 28, 2009 12:43 PM
comment #11
markj
says ...
Funny how everyone is underestimating Cameron again. There is no way Star Trek will be nominated ahead of Avatar.
Posted by markj
at October 28, 2009 12:49 PM
comment #12
Scott Nye
says ...
drbob - It's just about steeling yourself against very likely heartbreak. See how hopeful everyone got, sure that Zodiac would be recognized for SOMETHING in 2007. But no. Not a God damn thing.
I strongly agree that District 9 is far from the best sci-fi of the decade. I'm not sure I would put V for Vendetta above it, but at least it worked as a whole piece.
Posted by Scott Nye
at October 28, 2009 1:02 PM
comment #13
DeeZee
says ...
mark: If Avatar ends up being Razzie-worthy, it'll definitely be passed.
Posted by DeeZee
at October 28, 2009 1:03 PM
comment #14
bluefugue
says ...
I don't really get the Star Trek love. It's a solid reboot that accomplished its most important goals (creating a young new cast & look for the updated Star Trek universe, and shaking off the rust of those bloodless Next Gen films), but as an action/adventure movie it's merely good. Nowhere near strong enough to be worthy of Best Picture.
Posted by bluefugue
at October 28, 2009 1:06 PM
comment #15
Terry McCarty
says ...
markj wrote:
Funny how everyone is underestimating Cameron again. There is no way Star Trek will be nominated ahead of Avatar.
I could see both of them being chosen--even though I don't think STAR TREK deserves anything more than technical nominations.
Posted by Terry McCarty
at October 28, 2009 1:06 PM
comment #16
snoop
says ...
Very interesting that all 5 picked Up. I thought there might be more debate over that. Looking at his voerall choices, Lewin seems to have a screw loose, even if you don't count his absurd Sherlock Holmes suggestion. He ignored An Education and, while I don't doubt that both Moon and The Road are good (I imagine they'll be right up my alley), is it even sort of likely that they get noms? He seems to be picking favorites, not prognosticating.
Posted by snoop
at October 28, 2009 1:13 PM
comment #17
markj
says ...
DeeZee: Anybody with a rudimentary grasp of filmmaking can tell from the second trailer that Avatar is in no way Razzie-worthy.
Terry McCarty: Let's hope you're not correct! I agree with you that Trek deserves no more than tech noms.
Posted by markj
at October 28, 2009 1:24 PM
comment #18
COCO
says ...
Saw ''Couples Retreat" yesterday with my girlfriend.....the coming attractions went on and on....but the standout was Avatar.....the new trailer
is much more cohesive and stuns the senses.....
Space Marines versus the Blueskins.....Eloi go.
Posted by COCO
at October 28, 2009 1:33 PM
comment #19
paul_kolas
says ...
I can only comment on what I've seen. Hurt Locker, Up, and A Serious Man deserve to be in the Top Ten. I'm not sure I'm as enamored as you are with An Education, Jeff, but Carey Mulligan is so wonderful she may carry the film on her back. She is to the movie what Julie Christie was to Darling - both films being launching pads for luminous new talent. I can't wait to see what she (Mulligan) brings to the film version of Kazuo Ishiguro's amazing novel, Never Let Me Go. Bright Star might not quite have Best Picture chops, but along with Streep's Julia Child, I loved Abbie Cornish's performance as Franny Brawne. She was the heart and soul of the movie, and her break down scene is absolutely heart-rending. Off subject a bit, but since you hail Zodiac as the film of the decade, wouldn't you include Fincher's The Social Network as one of the most anticipated movies of 2010?
Posted by paul_kolas
at October 28, 2009 1:43 PM
comment #20
arturobandini2
says ...
Oh hell, just give the best picture award to Paranormal Activity already and let the Oscar slide be done.
Posted by arturobandini2
at October 28, 2009 1:53 PM
comment #21
Eloi Manning
says ...
Nowhere Boy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6Km9L1Sqd0
Posted by Eloi Manning
at October 28, 2009 2:07 PM
comment #22
Eloi Manning
says ...
Hot Tub: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrSfpkVK25g
Posted by Eloi Manning
at October 28, 2009 2:20 PM
comment #23
Eloi Manning
says ...
Oh, apparently that Hot Tub trailer is really old and I've only just seen it. Never mind.
Posted by Eloi Manning
at October 28, 2009 2:21 PM
comment #24
fortunesfool73.wordpress.com
says ...
If 'Star Trek' gets nominated for Best Film i'm gonna give up any hope for Hollywood cinema. It was badly shot, badly edited and very badly written. Was it a succesful reboot? I suppose- if by success you mean 'stripped of all intelligence and reduced to popcorn-munching moronic dross'
Posted by fortunesfool73.wordpress.com
at October 28, 2009 2:35 PM
comment #25
George Prager
says ...
The Boys in the Band
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Zw4639Ztjs
Posted by George Prager
at October 28, 2009 3:31 PM
comment #26
George Prager
says ...
Oh, apparently that Boys in the Band trailer is really old and I've only just seen it. Never mind.
Posted by George Prager
at October 28, 2009 3:31 PM
comment #27
Eloi Manning
says ...
That made me laugh.
Posted by Eloi Manning
at October 28, 2009 3:37 PM
comment #28
DeeZee
says ...
markj: "Anybody with a rudimentary grasp of filmmaking can tell from the second trailer that Avatar is in no way Razzie-worthy. "
I'm sure that's what they once said about Heaven's Gate once, too.
Posted by DeeZee
at October 28, 2009 4:01 PM
comment #29
DeeZee
says ...
Eloi: RE: Nowhere Boy. I can't wait to see how many reviewers will try to argue that the movie looks too "modern", because the band-members look like they're dolled up for an emo group.
Posted by DeeZee
at October 28, 2009 4:14 PM
comment #30
markj
says ...
Avatar trailer and behind the scenes leaked online - not looking much like Heavens Gate i'm afraid DeeZee.
Posted by markj
at October 28, 2009 4:25 PM
comment #31
DeeZee
says ...
mark: You mean it's worse?
Posted by DeeZee
at October 28, 2009 4:29 PM
comment #32
markj
says ...
Don't be a fool DeeZee.
Posted by markj
at October 28, 2009 4:32 PM
comment #33
DeeZee
says ...
Anyway, Ninja Assassin spot.
http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2009/NOPQR/Ninja-Assassin/trailer.php
Box clip.
http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2009/0-9ABC/Box,The/trailer.php
Spike Shutter Island teaser.
http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2009/STUVWXYZ/Shutter-Island/trailer.php
Spike Alice teaser.
http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2010/Alice-In-Wonderland/trailer.php
Posted by DeeZee
at October 28, 2009 4:34 PM
comment #34
MAGGA
says ...
After you let the audience down with a fifteen-minute 3D preview it's too late to try to impress with a trailer.
Posted by MAGGA
at October 28, 2009 4:40 PM
comment #35
DeeZee
says ...
markj: So I finally saw that fucker. http://www.filmschoolrejects.com/news/can-this-new-avatar-trailer-turn-it-all-around-colea.php Wasn't this already made a few years ago by Terence Malick and called the New World? Oh, and Coppola had a similar idea with Apocalypse Now. Plus, throw in a dash of a CG-fied Ferngully to appeal to the Don Bluth fans... And I already saw those mechs in Matrix Revolutions. So what's the game-changer again?
Posted by DeeZee
at October 28, 2009 4:44 PM
comment #36
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
Yeah, I'm sorry, but anyone calling District 9 the best sci-fi "in years" is reallllly over-hyping that flick, I'm afraid. It's a nice first feature, very well-directed, and hints at some much better (and cohesive) films down the road for a very young filmmaker, but that's about it.
Besides, Moon and Surrogates (don't laugh, damn you!) were better sf movies released just this year.
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at October 28, 2009 9:29 PM
comment #37
lawnorder
says ...
Not seeing any mention of UP IN THE AIR, which is excellent and will definitely land a whole bunch of noms (Reitman, Clooney, Farmiga, editing, cinematography). Has INVICTUS been screened for critics yet? Is that why it's on all these lists - because I've got a strong feeling it's going to fizzle. South African dramas with American stars never hit the right tone. It's just never happened yet - the best one was STANDER with Tom Jane, but no one saw it.
Posted by lawnorder
at October 28, 2009 11:44 PM
comment #38
chris7crows
says ...
@CitizenKaned:
I was actually really surprised that "Surrogates" was largely a decent piece of sci-fi, particularly given Mostow's track record. Lots of intriguing ideas and some better than average world-building (see "Minority Report" for how not to engage in sci-fi world building). My only problem was the completely rote, lackluster ending, which took a little wind out of my sails, but it's still a good recommendation.
"Moon" is a movie I respect more than enjoy. It's smartly done, but a little too shoegazing-mumblecore for my tastes. Those majestic shots of the crawler rolling across the desolate lunarscape begin to lose some of their impact the tenth or eleventh time around.
Posted by chris7crows
at October 29, 2009 8:56 AM
comment #39
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
Yeah, the fact that Surrogates actually built a more convincing world than Minority Report is really quite something, when you consider how strong the source material for MR is. Surrogates actually felt a whole lot closer to the literary sf spirit (channeled through Philip K. Dick, etc.) than almost anything in MR. I guess Surrogates is actually based on a graphic novel? I think I'm going to have to check that out.
I'm not sure there has been any more decent sci-fi released this year. 9 isn't bad, if you want to count animated features. The summer was kind of a wasteland, though. I liked Star Trek more than most, but really hesitate to classify it as sf (much more space opera-y). Then there was Terminator 4, which...I was actually sorta okay with. It's about as deep as a puddle, but interesting sf themes are present there, which is more than you can say about most big-budget actioners -- G.I. Joe & Transformers 2, I'm (not) looking at you.
I probably liked it a little more than you, but I still agree with your thoughts regarding Moon. Could have been a lot more engaging.
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at October 29, 2009 1:26 PM
comment #40
DeeZee
says ...
Kane: I haven't read the source material, but the movie version of Minority Report felt like a Blade Runner-lite by way of the Fugitive. I think the only reason people are willing to praise it is it wasn't as bad as A.I.
Anyway, the DVD and BD specs for Surrogates are up @ http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwocentsa173.html#102709 .
Posted by DeeZee
at October 29, 2009 6:25 PM
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