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Directors With Heat
I was invited a while back to take part in Sasha Stone's Awards Daily "Virtual Oscar Roundtable," but with London and moving to a new place and my usual crazy-hair ADD I wasn't able to muster the focus to participate. On average I'd say that I fail to do about 40% of the things I plan to do every day. Even when I write them down in the morning. Each day is a struggle in this regard.
Stone's request, in any event, was for participants to pick/spitball the directors with the best chance right now of being of the five Best Director nominees. It's a little early to do that, but not really -- the only formidable unknown right now is Clint Eastwood (Invictus), but a little caution is advised for now. I'm not certain that Rob Marshall (Nine) sounds like any kind of given contender, given the vaguely uncertain rumble about the film. Nor am I picking up signals that Lovely Bones director Peter Jackson has any kind of favoring headwind.
My selections as we speak are (1) Jason Reitman (Up In The Air), (2) Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), (3) Lone Scherfig (An Education), (4) Eastwood and a three-way tie between Jane Campion (Bright Star), Joel and Ethan Coen (A Serious Man) and Lee Daniels (Precious). A voice is telling me that Precious may not be the comer/keeper that some think it is. But I don't know anything. Nobody does. Well, two or three.
Here are some other calls from Stone's poll along with HE commentary:
Damien Bona: "I hate to wimp out, but it's still way too early to make credible predictions. October front-runners often fall by the wayside come January. One has to wait for critics awards to get a better gauge. But I do suspect that Kathryn Bigelow and Jason Reitman will still be in the mix come February." HE commentary: Damien "suspects" that Reitman and Bigelow will be in the mix? Careful, bro -- don't go out on a limb.
Ed Douglas: "Jason Reitman, Joel and Ethan Coen, Lee Daniels, Quentin Tarantino, Lone Scherfig? (I'd alternately replace Tarantino with Bigelow which would make it the first year with two female representatives helping the odds, though I think Reitman will win based on having seen all the movies). HE commentary: The Movie Godz would frown but okay, it's faintly possible that Inglourious Basterds could wind up as one of the ten Best Picture nominees. But there's no chance in hell that Tarantino gets nominated for Best Director....just forget it.
Scott Feinberg: "Even though we haven't yet seen Invictus, the clear favorite is Clint Eastwood. The last two times he teamed up with Morgan Freeman (Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby) he won both best picture and best director, so I wouldn't bet against him. It seems likely that the rest of the field will be filled out by Jason Reitman (Up in the Air), Rob Marshall (Nine), Lee Daniels (Precious), and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), but James Cameron (Avatar) and Peter Jackson (The Lovely Bones) -- both past past winners coming back from long absences -- are obviously big wild-cards. HE commentary: Cameron for Avatar?
Pete Hammond: "Kathryn Bigelow, Clint Eastwood, Rob Marshall, Jason Reitman, Quentin Tarantino or Lee Daniels." HE commentary: Again -- Tarantino.
Peter Howell: "Jason Reitman, Kathryn Bigelow, Lone Scherfig, Jane Campion and Tom Ford (A Single Man)."
Craig Kennedy: "Bigelow, Reitman, Coens, Scherfig, Jonze (I know I mentioned Campion above as a possible winner, but I'm hedging my bet here)."
Tom O'Neil: "The five nominees for best director will be James Cameron (Avatar), Lee Daniels (Precious), Clint Eastwood (Invictus), Peter Jackson (The Lovely Bones) and Rob Marshall (Nine). Avatar and Nine are both grandly ambitious productions that will probably be appreciated by fellow directors for their scope. Precious is this year's Slumdog Millionaire, so Daniels goes along for the ride. Jackson and Clint get automatic nominations just because, well, they're Jackson and Clint. Sad to say, but it looks like women will be slapped down again this year by the ole boyz in the directors' branch. Only thing that can change that is Amelia flying higher than current expectations." HE commentary: Kathryn Bigelow will not be slapped down this year -- she's a Best Director lock. And I'm fairly convinced that Scherfig is good to go also. Due respect but Precious is NOT this year's Slumdog -- it's way too sad and grim to be regarded in such a light. A Cameron nomination won't happen unless Avatar turns out to be much more than what's been promised by the trailer and Avatar Day preview. Jackson is a maybe, at best. Ditto Marshall.
Kris Tapley: "Jason Reitman, Kathryn Bigelow and Lee Daniels have the best shot of those listed here, I think."
Anne Thompson: "Kathryn Bigelow, Joel and Ethan Coen, Peter Jackson, Clint Eastwood, Jason Reitman."
Susan Wloszczyna: "Of this group, Jason Reitman, Kathryn Bigelow, Lee Daniels and Lone Scherfig."
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on October 19, 2009 at 6:38 AM
comment #1
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
How could you pick up any objective "favoring headwind" for Peter Jackson, even if it did exist? You clearly hate the guy, and it swiftly and unfairly colors your opinion of everything he's ever been involved with.
Nice italics.
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at October 19, 2009 7:46 AM
comment #2
PopcornEyeglass
says ...
Everybody gets that you hate Basterds, but I'm confused why Tarantino would at all be out of the running. An established, respected director making a box-office hit with a fairly substantial critical backing? Especially given Tarantino's obvious stamp on the thing.
Posted by PopcornEyeglass
at October 19, 2009 7:50 AM
comment #3
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
And oddly enough, I wouldn't count Tarantino out of the best director race, even if IB isn't one of the ten movies nominated. That sounds pretty crazy, I admit, but I could foresee a situation in which that happens.
After all, he's one of the few current American auteurs. Everything that works (and presumably even the things that some people think don't) in that movie is very largely due to his script and direction. That is going to be worth votes.
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at October 19, 2009 7:54 AM
comment #4
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
Ooooh, snap, Popcorn.
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at October 19, 2009 7:54 AM
comment #5
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
As long as Jackson is in a story-telling mode that seems to resemble the one he was in when he directed Heavenly Creatures, I'm even-steven about that. His big failing is his tendency to emotionally underline and over-direct even the simplest lines, moments, scenes. If Jackson does that with Bones, he will pay the price -- it's that simple. In other words it's not me (i.e., a face in the crowd). It's Jackson -- he's the yea-nay guy in this equation.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at October 19, 2009 7:56 AM
comment #6
actionman
says ...
Leaving Neill Blomkamp off of the best director list for his stunning debut work on District 9 would be appalling. Same with failing to recognize Bigelow. Hell, Michael Mann deserves a nod for Public Enemies. And at this stage, Spike Jonze easily deserves a nomination for his Malickian/Kubrickian approach to Wild Things.
Wells -- when do you plan on seeing Wild Things? I have a feeling that you'll be quite surprised by what you encounter...
Posted by actionman
at October 19, 2009 8:01 AM
comment #7
BurmaShave
says ...
Wells, I wouldn't mind you clouding your analysis with your own personal prejudices, except that you consider yourself an authority on the matter. Nobody knows anything, sure, but INGLORIOUS plays like gangbusters and is one of the most well-regarded films of the year. A comeback in the Oscar derby for Tarantino would make a lot of sense and is certainly not a "forget it" situation.
Posted by BurmaShave
at October 19, 2009 8:11 AM
comment #8
Movie fan09
says ...
A voice is telling me that Precious may not be the comer/keeper that some think it is.
Jeff,
I saw Precious and you're half right.
I don't think it's great, but it certainly stays with you.
Posted by Movie fan09
at October 19, 2009 8:23 AM
comment #9
markj
says ...
Jeff, you were wowed by the Comic-Con Avatar footage. What happened?
Posted by markj
at October 19, 2009 9:38 AM
comment #10
MrTribeca
says ...
Jeff, I had the same problem as you in getting to grips with all my daily activities. Somebody recommended Things, an app for the iPhone, and since I started using it, I'm up to date with all my priorities by the end of each day. Suggest you check it out sometime.
Posted by MrTribeca
at October 19, 2009 10:28 AM
comment #11
MikeSchaeferSF
says ...
Isn't Bright Star pretty much dead? Pretty weak showing, box-office-wise. No chance for Campion, esp with 2 other female directors with stronger films in the mix.
Posted by MikeSchaeferSF
at October 19, 2009 11:21 AM
comment #12
Colin
says ...
Eastwood is an inevitability at this point, no matter how Invictus does.
Reitman is in as well, Up in the Air seems like a critical darling at this point.
Bigelow, she's due. As well as a female nominee period.
And some combination of Daniels, Jonze, Marshall(depending on Nine's success) and maybe the Coens.
Posted by Colin
at October 19, 2009 11:41 AM
comment #13
Tom Reagan
says ...
Although I have seen movies this year which I like more than The Hurt Locker, none have been better directed. At this point I'd vote for Up for Best Picture and Bigelow for Best Director.
My likelies: An Education, Hurt Locker, Precious, Up and Up in the Air for picture. Invictus--likely, given the sentiment for Eastwood. Nine--if it's great, and it looks like it, then yes. A Serious Man--love it, but don't know if it'll happen since it may weird out most Academy members.
Posted by Tom Reagan
at October 19, 2009 11:52 AM
comment #14
great scott
says ...
No way Precious doesn't get in. Remember the uproar when Dreamgirls was snubbed in the top catagory? You mean even with the list doubled to TEN, they can't find a spot for a critically acclaimed and (I'm told) emotionally powerful film with an almost all black cast? If it's not nominated they'll have some splainin' to do.
Posted by great scott
at October 19, 2009 12:28 PM
comment #15
The Winchester
says ...
With Nine looking iffy, I bet Harvey will probably push harder for Inglorious Basterds and especially Tarantino, who, while not quite saved the man's studio, at least bought it a little more time.
I bet Jonze gets recognized. Unless the movie drops 70% next weekend.
Posted by The Winchester
at October 19, 2009 12:31 PM
comment #16
great scott
says ...
Eastwood is NOT an inevitability. That movie finished shooting in March and it's nearly November and no trailer or one sheet or anything.
Yeah, I know Gran Torino's trailer didn't hit until November, but it didn't start filming until June anyway. This one's been in the can for a while.
Posted by great scott
at October 19, 2009 12:33 PM
comment #17
jbf81
says ...
The Hurt locker just swept the Gothan noms,and I really wish this film to get serious critics love and havie a real chance at Best Pic, in my view is a much better made film than the favorites so far, like Precious or Up in the Air.
Posted by jbf81
at October 19, 2009 1:30 PM
comment #18
mpneeb
says ...
When has a film that was this-year's-version-of-last-year's-hit ever run away with the prizes? I'm of course referring to the Precious/Slumdog comparison.
And it's to much to ask that Oren Peli of PARANORMAL ACTIVITY be a possibility, right?
Posted by mpneeb
at October 19, 2009 4:29 PM
comment #19
Gordon27
says ...
"The last two times he teamed up with Morgan Freeman (Unforgiven and Million Dollar Baby) he won both best picture and best director"
And Best Supporting Actor, which would be perfectly in line with the year Damon has been building to.
Posted by Gordon27
at October 19, 2009 7:07 PM
comment #20
cinemascopian
says ...
Actually, "An Education" is this year's "Slumdog", breezy--lightweight-bittersweet-brit that's oddly over-hyped by you Yanks. But the mere thought that there might be THREE women best actor nominees is astounding. Alas, unless old-time-male-oriented Academy-voter Hollywood was replaced by femme-friendly film bloggers overnight, it's hard to imagine this actually happening. I believe Bigelow will indeed get slapped, though the thought of her and ex-hubbie James Cameron sharing an nomination makes me smile. Fat chance, though.
Posted by cinemascopian
at October 20, 2009 10:59 AM
comment #21
scamanti
says ...
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