comment #1

Daniel Morfesis says ...

I'm not too savy with these numbers ... is this good, bad, too early to tell??

comment #2

Jeffrey Wells says ...

A 30 first choice on opening day would be pretty damn strong. A very good opening weekend. Something in the $65 or $70 million range, I'm guessing. Or higher...I don't know. Up to $100 million in no time, and past $200 million two or three weeks later. But this is a film that has to do lots of repeat business and rake it in like it's almost never been raked in before. Who isn't going to want to see this film? No one. Everybody will want to check it out. But how many will want to see twice or thrice? That's the question.

comment #3

bulltron says ...

What does this film have to gross to be considered successful? 300 million? For some reason, I feel like it compares to PJ's King Kong which did 218 million and no one seems to like.

comment #4

paulavery says ...

Hey Jeffrey! you said above that everyone wants to see this movie but to be honest with you, I don't know anyone who wants to see it. I talk to a lot of movie buffs and no one I know is aching to see it. I know I am skipping it. Had lunch yesterday with a pretty well educated group of movie fans and I brought up the question.. are any of you planning to see Avatar. The answer was no. I will say that my friends saw The Fantastic Mr Fox and loved it. I am planning to see that next weekend. Did see An Education finally this weekend and loved it too. Anyway... my friends are in their mid to late 30's just to set the record straight. I wonder what age group is into Avatar? I am thinking young nerd teenage/20 something boys? I know that is a huge part of the movie going population so they will come out for sure. But other than that group... I don't know.

comment #5

HanekeFanBoyNumberOne says ...

Like paulavery, most of my cinephile friends have no interest in this at all. I keep hearing this is going to raise the roof but I'm honestly not seeing it.

And I'm also curious as to what it will take to call Avatar a financial success.

comment #6

Eloi Manning says ...

I think a lot depends on Sherlock Holmes, too. If it's a pile of shit, Avatar will benefit in the long-run. But if Holmes is 'Iron Man: The Victorian Years', it could eat up a lot of the potential box office for Avatar and kill it dead within a couple of weeks. Downey is the closest thing Hollywood has to an action star at the moment so we'll see.

comment #7

adorian says ...

I have no desire to see Avatar. Ever since I saw that very long promo shown on the jumbo screen at a Dallas football game (and the audience's giving the preview...or the screen...a standing ovation), I realize that I don't want to be anywhere near the Avatar crowds.

comment #8

jimtheindiefilmmaker says ...

What is our criteria here? Are we only talking money? Then possibly it'll be a smash (hey, "G.I. Joe proved that some people will pay money to see anything and that critics opinions mean zilch). But, if we're talking artistry, how can this possibly compare to "2001' or other great sci-fi fantasy films? It can't. It will suck. And make millions.

comment #9

Ryansi51 says ...

i know many people that haven't even heard of this.. and it's funny, because when i tell them about it all I can say is that you "should see it, because, well, it cost a shitload of money."

seriously, theyve done a good job at making you feel like its an event movie, but good luck getting that across to more of the moviegoing public.

i couldnt even tell you when it opens, and i feel like i'm usually pretty in tune with whats going on.

comment #10

Ryansi51 says ...

ahh, i see it opens 12.18

i'm so in tune i didn't bother to read that part.

comment #11

Telemachos says ...

It's Cameron. I'm there opening weekend... and I suspect despite what they say online, most people my age who like genre films (ie, folks who who grew up on TERMINATOR and ALIENS and T2, etc etc) will be checking it out.

comment #12

loyal says ...

The posturing going on here (and other websites) is hilarious and also kinda sad.

"I'll never see Avatar in a hundred billion trillion years."
"I don't know of a single person on Earth that wants to see Avatar."
"Avatar? What's that?"

I'm certain a percentage of these nay-sayers will still be in line on Friday the 18th buying their tickets and wearing the dumb 3D glasses, if for no other reason than delusional self-flagellation.

Search movie websites and the most commented upon articles are those involving Avatar. We all know everyone wants to feel important and get their opinions across, whether for or against Avatar. Some of the most vocal critics will see the film opening weekend, just to be part of the conversation. And a ticket sold, regardless of intent, is still a ticket sold.

comment #13

Mr. F. says ...

Eloi: speaking of Sherlock Holmes, I'm now boycotting it on principle... because a tie-in ad in the latest Entertainment Weekly has turned me off. Seriously.

See p.29: a full-page SH ad promoting... the mysterious flavor of coffee... *7-11 brand coffee*. If you're going to whore your big action tentpoler out like that... why should I bother seeing it? I mean... 7-11 coffee is the best you can do?!

comment #14

paulavery says ...

I just want to add in reply to what loyal wrote. Honestly I am not posturing. Why would I lie about seeing a movie? or pretend that I was not going to see it when secretly I was? kind of silly thing to do doncha think. There are alot of movies released every year that I have no interest in seeing. And some of them are talked about alot. And there have been times I have gone to see a movie so I can share the chatter at work the next day. Watchmen is a good example. I knew my work friends were going to see it so I checked it out. But I have to say I have yet to talk to anyone I know who wants to see Avatar and that includes my work friends. That said we all know the movie will draw big. Maybe I am just too old and if so I am fine with that. Plus I only have so much money I can spend on movies. There are probably 3 or 4 I would rather spend my money on as the year draws to a close.

comment #15

CameronIsHMFIC says ...

Holiday season should be good to both Avatar and Sherlock (which is getting a good buzz) . However, I don`t think Avatar will open like New Moon which some may use to call it a disappointment, bomb or whatever else.

comment #16

loyal says ...

So PAULAVERY, why not lead your original post with "maybe I'm too old and frankly I don't have the extra money to see the film anyway?"

Instead, you lead with how over lunch (that you could suddenly afford) your group of "pretty well educated group of movie fan" friends, when polled by you over salad, agreed in unison that they too would never see Avatar in a hundred billion trillion years. I'm imagining the stamping of feet and silverware in protest!

I appreciate you dropping Watchmen in an effort to display the fanboy street cred lacking in your previous post that included viewings of An Education and Fantastic Mister Fox.

Maybe Avatar just isn't for you and your work friends and real life friends and everyone you've ever met in 35 years (I'm guessing here) of existence. Why then I ask, do you even bother responding to Avatar articles? It's clearly not your thing (which is okay).

comment #17

Eloi Manning says ...

Sherlock Holmes is certainly far more visible than Avatar at the moment, even if some of that is from absurd merchandise and tie-ins. But the Eloi do seem to be responding to the trailer. It drew several laughs with the New Moon crowd. Even after they'd effectively seen it twice as it was featured on that AMC First Look bollocks they play before the trailers.

comment #18

DeeZee says ...

Avatar's going to bomb, because The Princess+The Frog is going to eat up the family box office sales, Lovely Bones and whatever's left of New Moon will split up the teen demo, and Crazy Heart and A Single Man will soak up the boomer demo. If Avatar got released in September, it might at least have had a slot to build an audience, but FOX is desperately trying to turn it into a merchandising cash cow for which there is no market.

comment #19

Mark says ...

New Moon and $140M is not the comparison. In fact I don't see any negative stories the Monday after
as long as it surpasses half that and I Am Legend And Return of the King to become the biggest December opening ever.

comment #20

Chase Kahn says ...

DeeZee -- your logic is half-baked at best. First off, just saying that the "teen" demo will go see "The Lovely Bones" over "Avatar" is absurd. Then you go so far as to suggest that teenage boys (in my opinion, the big demo for AVATAR) will go see "New Moon" or "Lovely Bones" in its place? No way.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing that "Avatar" will be a bomb or a hit (probably somewhere in-between) but you need better proof, my man. You don't even mention it's biggest competition: "Sherlock Holmes".

comment #21

paulavery says ...

Fair reply loyal. I only posted in the first place because Jeff wrote a post assuming everyone wanted to see it.I have lived long enough to learn you should not make assumptions. I like to talk about movies. And I like to read about movies. That is why I have been reading Jeff for years. And yeah... I like to talk about movies I have no intention of seeing. And actually I am 61 years old. I was having lunch with some of my kids yesterday and their friends who are in their 30's. I work with a lot of obivously younger people than myself and I like to ask them what they are interested in so I don't feel too out of it.

comment #22

shermy says ...

I just naturally assume all fanboys are going to go see it, so it should definitely open well.

But outside of that demographic, I haven't witnessed a very high awareness/interest for it. No one seems to know what the hell I'm talking about. I've even had a few people mistakenly think I was talking about that Last Airbender thing. (How anyone can know about that while being clueless about Cameron's film is beyond me.)

Not trying to be a hater, but I don't see how "everyone will go" is a foregone conclusion here. To recoup its budget, it's going to need the much hated "Eloi" crowd to show up. Does anyone really believe it will attract them the way a Pirates of the Carribean or superhero flick can?

comment #23

DeeZee says ...

Mark: Except it won't be the biggest December opening, because it has too much going against it.

Chase: " First off, just saying that the "teen" demo will go see "The Lovely Bones" over "Avatar" is absurd."

Who's more recognizable to teens? Marky Mark, or the 30-something Channing Tatum from T4?

" Then you go so far as to suggest that teenage boys (in my opinion, the big demo for AVATAR) will go see "New Moon" or "Lovely Bones" in its place?"

What? You think those movies make money on girl power alone? If that were the case, Titanic would've made its money back sooner. It's obvious guys are gonna sit through that shit, even if they won't admit it, if they can get a date out of it.

"You don't even mention it's biggest competition: "Sherlock Holmes"."

That's because it'll long be forgotten by the times Holmes comes out a week later.

comment #24

DeeZee says ...

shermy: If fanboys were key to a good opening, than Whedon would still have a career right now.

comment #25

The Winchester says ...

The sci-fi nerd in me is really looking forward to Avatar, though I have a feeling it won't be nearly as good as District 9 or Moon.(Satisfies the nerd part of me). The tech nerd is even more excited based on the promises, but that can only lead to disappointment. I'm hoping for mildly surprised.

I agree with the "repeat the King Kong (under)performance model" stated earlier.

comment #26

Burbanked says ...

I have faith that Cameron will make a spectacularly exciting visual feast, although the trailers have not given much hope for the story or dialogue. I'm holding out hope.

But tonight an AVATAR TV spot came on while my 9-year-old was watching THE GRINCH WHO STOLE CHRISTMAS (Chuck Jones, NOT Ron Howard).

His exact reaction: "Ech. That doesn't even look realistic."

He may not be the ideal demo for the movie, but they're certainly trying to market and merchandise to him and he's not impressed.

comment #27

Mark says ...

Too much going against it? Read the post. Tracking so far is where it should be. much better than any non-sequel, non famed-source material ever.

So some who consider themselves plugged in don't have friends interested in it. Well I have yet to meet anyone that saw the last Fast and the Furious yet it opened to a number that would be acceptable for Avatar.

comment #28

DeeZee says ...

Mark: Tracking should be a lot higher, given that they're associating the flick with Cameron's more recognizable movies. As for F+TF, those movies are short, cheap, and generally deliver on what the target 18-25 demo wants.

comment #29

Patrick Juvet says ...

Lovely Bones is going to have to sell out an awful lot of shows with teens to outgross Avatar at Christmas since it will only be playing in about a dozen theatres in North America. It doesn't open wide until January 15 2010.

comment #30

JohnCope says ...

Burbanked's comment made me think that perhaps part of the problem here is going to be that Cameron has made a film which is striving for a new kind of techno-realist immersion as an experience and yet it is also meant as a fantasy. I hadn't considered the extent to which that hybrid might be a very real challenge till now. Of course, he could succeed brilliantly and it still wouldn't make that problem go away. I'm not really sure how any "marketing team" can hope to address that.

comment #31

DeeZee says ...

Patrick: That's still enough cities to siphon off interest from Avatar for that weekend, since I doubt the latter film will play well in the heartlands, going up against 'Frog.

comment #32

RSBrown says ...

"And they're off!"

Wells asked, "Who isn't going to want to see this film?" He submits, "No one." To people like paulavery and HanekeFanBoyNumberOne: pay a little more attention to what Jeff wrote next. "Everybody will want to check it out." This is the truth.

I've reserved comment, almost entirely, on all internet-things "Avatar", i.e. forum questionnaires concerning personal interest, debates regarding prospective degree of financial success, genus analysis of the Na'vi and its potential socio-political-economical impact(s). But the horse-track spectator quote alludes to film's quickly approaching release date. When the race begins, for that ephemeral moment between the start and the finish, all pretenses get discarded; everyone succumbs. Or should. Equitation. The magic of the movie. Then the audience walks out, as it were, the other side.

People will see this movie. Obvious. The Eloi (has there been any declaration of whether or not that word is formal?...Fuck it, they don't deserve formality) - The eloi will see it because of the scope, the pretty colors, the CGI, the action, the virilty, the gung-ho technocracy, the hackneyed love story and societal commentary; because dropping green on a pair of avaricious tickets, a plethora of popcorn, tannic soda, and enduring two-and-a-half hours of playing footsie while not paying attention to the movie is really all just an exculpation for having sex afterwards. The nerds, the movie-buffs, the consecrated pundits, the topically proselyte - collectively, the fomenters - will ALL see this movie. Why? To be able to talk about it. That is to say, to join the other side. Because none can intelligently participate in a discussion, dissection, and/or critiquing of "Avatar" without having first witnessed it. And after they've watched it - then - all the charlantry, all that pretense I mentioned, comes back. Echoes of "I told you so!" Claims of "Over-hyped!" Demurrals of "What were they thinking?" Gibes of "Well, that was money well spent." Volcanic will the eruption of remonstrance be. And all of it on the internet.

The eloi will simply and naively encounter "Avatar", nothing more; presumedly registering, at most, proximately; artlessly; as an immediate sensory exhilarant; evanescently; disposing completely from consciousness within about two days...three, maximum. Have you ever experienced a movie with one of the eloi? You're watching a film; becoming totally engaged; it grows emotional; the climax is poignant; the finale hits hard; the moment credits begin whoever you're watching it with gets up, ejects it, turns the lights on, commences rambling on a subject so terribly alternative from the ending's message plus the story's theme that the very notion itself or the thought of how it engendered (because the fact of its introduction proves its inception) is rather awe-inspiring and the unflinching will flaunting such smug eagerness for getting "back to reality" without any kind of reflection whatsoever has utterly deprived you the brief euphoria inherent in newly acquired enlightenment. Anyone know this feeling? No? Just me?

Point is: the eloi and the fomenters (geeks, cinephiles, critics) undoubtedly have something they could and should learn from the other, or rather, the same thing, from different aspects - appreciation. The eloi move on, usually instantaneously, disregarding the affects of story and narrative. The fomenters can and will and do squawk, usually before and after, about the merit of this-and-that. But both spend their time in that dark room with the illuminated silver-screen for the same reason. Escape.

The release of a film is a funny thing, has grown in social significance; remember Bruckheimer's label of "event film"? People will go. Cameron knows this. All he can attempt and hope is for "Avatar" to be some sort of pleasantness, because, like Wells writes above, "But how many will want to see twice or thrice? That's the question."

The eloi and the fomenters may also learn to appreciate the tribulations of the artistic- and creative-process, especially for writers - which Cameron has established himself to be. Artists go through Hades to realize what initiates as an idea. Years might pass before it materializes. After a multitude of unforeseeable ordeals, mishaps, misfortunes, adversities, hardships and altogether indescribable suffering (both cerebral and physical), to create a kind of worldly departure for those who need it, the end-product is gifted to a gluttonous public who says, "I could have written that..." But they didn't. A filmmaker goes through hell and the fomenters yell, "Defend your work! Explain yourself!"

Just saying.

"Avatar" is just another flicker-show. James Cameron, even myself, wish you enjoy it. Who knows? Possibly you'll like it enough to see it a second time. If you do, bring a friend. With luck, the movie makes a profit and the sum allows Cameron to produce another project, fomenters be damned.

comment #33

Gordon27 says ...

"Crazy Heart and A Single Man will soak up the boomer demo."

That's ridiculous; neither one of those films will gross one-tenth of what 'Avatar' makes. Hell, it's even money whether either one will even open wide.

"You think those movies make money on girl power alone? If that were the case, Titanic would've made its money back sooner."

I can't understand how this sentence relates to reality. 'TItanic' did make most of its money from repeat business from teenage girls, and I don't know how much sooner it could reasonably have been expected to make its money back.

I'm still not entirely convinced that DZ knows what words mean.

comment #34

Gordon27 says ...

"But how many will want to see twice or thrice? That's the question."

The potential is there; if people went to see 'lord of the Rings' multiple times, people *could* go to see 'Avatar' multiple times. It's not like fantasy can't succeed. But it's got to hit just right or it's dead.

comment #35

MechanicalShark says ...

I'm not seeing Avatar until after the reviews come in, if that. It looks to me like an ultimately inessential blockbuster, regardless of how "game-changing" it might be. Dances With Smurfs and all that, you know. I don't care about being in the conversation because I'm pissed Avatar is even in the discussion at oscar blogs outside of technicals. I mean, the film could surprise us all with its hidden depths and imagination, but then why haven't I seen even a hint of that anywhere?

comment #36

DeeZee says ...

RSB: "The eloi will see it because of the scope, the pretty colors, the CGI, the action, the virilty, the gung-ho technocracy, the hackneyed love story and societal commentary;"

I'm sure that's what analysts said about Riddick and Gattaca, too.

Gordon: "That's ridiculous; neither one of those films will gross one-tenth of what 'Avatar' makes."

Given that Avatar won't make a dime outside of production costs, at best, after home video sales, I'm sure the former two films can do it.

"'TItanic' did make most of its money from repeat business from teenage girls,"

it made money from repeat viewings across the board. The girls were the ones who helped sell it to everyone else.

comment #37

Gordon27 says ...

"Given that Avatar won't make a dime outside of production costs, at best, after home video sales, I'm sure the former two films can do it."

outside of production, except that you mean production + marketing, etc. (which is fine). But I didn't say anything about profit, I said gross; neither of those movies will gross one-tenth of what 'Avatar' does, which is to say that neither one will have any appreciable impact on 'Avatar's grosses.

"it made money from repeat viewings across the board. The girls were the ones who helped sell it to everyone else."

Okay, now square that with your previous statement, that it would've made its money back faster if it had *only* had the teenage girls. Because I fed those two statements into a computer as "true", and it exploded in a cloud of black smoke.

comment #38

TheGK says ...

This thread started of with Jeff speculating on the box office success of Avatar, and nothing to do with the quality of the film.
I gotta say that when paulavery then says that none of his friends are interested in seeing it, but they saw the Fantastic Mr Fox and loved it; it tells me that what paulavery's friends want to see is a completely useless indicator as to potential box office performance.

Anyway, I've said it before and I'll say it again. You've gotta give Cameron the benefit of the doubt here. He can take a mundane plot and premise and turn it into something good. Avatar may look like intergalactic Dances With Wolves, but I think he'll service the plot and characters a lot better than most directors.
I think Avatar will have a solid start - maybe around $60mil domestic opening weekend - and have good legs. But that's only domestic takings; I see this doing big business in overseas markets like 2012.

comment #39

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "neither of those movies will gross one-tenth of what 'Avatar' does,"

Bullshit. Avatar will have more problems grossing 1/10th of Titanic's entire take than Crazy@Heart and a Single Man will have in making 1/10 of Avatar's gross.

"which is to say that neither one will have any appreciable impact on 'Avatar's grosses."

Except these movies will have an impact, because audiences who saw Walk the Line, BBM, The Hours, and the Bucket List will be more receptive to these flicks than Avatar.

"Okay, now square that with your previous statement, that it would've made its money back faster if it had *only* had the teenage girls."

I said teen girls had a significant impact on saving the fucker from its own demise. They alone did not make it profitable and successful, though.

GK: "it tells me that what paulavery's friends want to see is a completely useless indicator as to potential box office performance."

Wes Anderson and George Clooney are more relatable to the 18-25 demo. The guy who last worked on Dark Angel is not.

And 2012 made money world-wide, because it's a dumb b-movie. Avatar is a geek movie trying to appeal to people who watch dumb b-movies. Therefore, it will suffer the same fate as Serenity, and the Spirits Within, bomb everywhere.

comment #40

TheGK says ...

'Avatar is a geek movie trying to appeal to people who watch dumb b-movies. Therefore, it will suffer the same fate as Serenity, and the Spirits Within, bomb everywhere.'

I don't buy it. Cameron's last 3 tent pole films - T2, True Lies and Titianic all did considerably more business overseas than domestically. I know it's been a while, but technological advances aside, I don't think he's changed his film making style that much to categorise this as a geek film with limited appeal. I think wom will work in it's favour here to overcome any sci-fi/geek reservations that people may have.
But like I said, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

'Wes Anderson and George Clooney are more relatable to the 18-25 demo. The guy who last worked on Dark Angel is not.'

What I take from this is that you think that the Fantastic Mr Fox related better to the key 18-25 demographic than Avatar will. Also not buying this.
Avatar will have more than enough to attract this demographic i.e. some spectacular action in 3D.

comment #41

Markj74 says ...

I'm amazed at some people's reaction to Avatar. You're finally getting a blockbuster directed by somebody who knows what he's doing, who is trying to push the envelope, who is delivering a sci-fi adventure story (almost a dead genre) and people won't even give it an open mind?

The Terminator. Aliens. The Abyss. Terminator 2. Four reasons why any movie lover who gives a damn should be there opening weekend.

comment #42

Burbanked says ...

markj: excellently and succinctly said.

DZ: did you just compare Cameron's output to RIDDICK and GATTACA? And am I actually responding to you about it? Damn my overly sensitive film-loving soul!

comment #43

CameronIsHMFIC says ...

"Who's more recognizable to teens? Marky Mark, or the 30-something Channing Tatum from T4?"

Sorry to feed the troll but this is the most laughable statement. Teen girls don`t give a shit about Marky Mark, let alone Marky Mark in a really bad 70s wig. If you argued that they would see Bones over Avatar on the basis of popular book vs original movie that looks like a total geekfest, than we can have a conversation. But your above statement is pure trolling. I doubt you even believe what you just wrote. And, for the record, Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 is tracking better with teen girls than both Avatar and Bones. Much better. Just to let you know.

comment #44

Sams says ...

A $400+ million production price tag and the promise of ground breaking effects wizardry certainly had me curious, But I was underwhelmed by what I saw in the trailer. It looks like a live action / animation blend with a formulaic colonial conquerors vs indigenous tribe storyline. I will probably watch it -- but in DVD where I can stop and take a break if I feel I am getting too blue.

comment #45

bents75 says ...

No DZ....no one said that about Gattaca. I love the movie but that is a completely full-of-shit assinine comment to make, even for you.

Sometimes I think you just write random movie titles on the face of dice, roll them, and then compare whatever comes up with whatever the topic is.

"Avatar is going to be a rip roaring adventure"

DZ - 'roll' 'click' click' "Ah ha, I'm sure that's exactly what they said about The Godfather III, Major League, and Children of the Corn V : Fields of Terror !"

comment #46

MechanicalShark says ...

People are skeptical of Avatar because the trailers have given good reason to be skeptical. Before the trailers, I was lukewarm on it, not having seen most of Cameron's films. The trailers, however, and the featurettes don't show to me a quality film, but rather an okay blockbuster targeted squarely at the demographic Jeff refers to as "Eloi". Besides, there's an undue emphasis on the visual effects as opposed to story and character. And it seems like neither of those will be very good. Of course, I didn't go to "avatar day". Why would I? It was like a special sermon for those who had already converted.
Frankly, I wouldn't care about Avatar at all if it weren't for people like Tapley, Poland, and Feinberg going OMG BEST PICTURE GAMECHANGER.

comment #47

DeeZee says ...

GK: "I don't buy it. Cameron's last 3 tent pole films - T2, True Lies and Titianic all did considerably more business overseas than domestically."

They also had actors who sell well overseas. Who the hell is Sam Worthington? And don't forget that Abyss did pretty weakly overseas, too.

"I don't think he's changed his film making style that much to categorise this as a geek film with limited appeal."

It's not his change of approach that's an issue, though that is a factor. It's his ability to tap into what's hip that's changed, which is why this will be construed as a geek film. Hell, Star Trek *is* a geek series, and even Abrams couldn't make it flashy enough to make as much money WW as it did here. So imagine how much harder it'll be for Cameron.

"What I take from this is that you think that the Fantastic Mr Fox related better to the key 18-25 demographic than Avatar will."

It certainly had the opening weekend PTA to prove it. Not even Wild Things attracted that much dough per theater.

"Avatar will have more than enough to attract this demographic i.e. some spectacular action in 3D."

That might be the case, but we're not seeing it in the trailers. What we're getting is a furry version of Braveheart.

mark: "You're finally getting a blockbuster directed by somebody who knows what he's doing, who is trying to push the envelope, who is delivering a sci-fi adventure story (almost a dead genre) and people won't even give it an open mind?"

He knew what he was doing 15 years ago. Now he's behind the times. That's what happens when you rest on your laurels on a disaster epic which just happened to have the dumb luck to be bailed out of bombing, simply because of a key demo.

Cameron: "Teen girls don`t give a shit about Marky Mark, let alone Marky Mark in a really bad 70s wig."

They don't? Then explain how his last eight years of work have been more lucrative than Worthington's last two years.

"If you argued that they would see Bones over Avatar on the basis of popular book vs original movie that looks like a total geekfest, than we can have a conversation."

Popular book? You think the audience that movie's targeting has even read the book?

"And, for the record, Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 is tracking better with teen girls than both Avatar and Bones. Much better."

That's nice, but we all know they'll still end up sneaking into it after paying for the Downey Holmes.

bents: "No DZ....no one said that about Gattaca."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gattaca#Critical_reception

comment #48

Gordon27 says ...

I like when DZ offers links that specifically say nothing about what he's saying they prove. In this case, just to confirm, that link says nothing at all about pre-release speculation on 'Gattaca', and doesn't even quote a critic saying 'Gattaca' is any of the following: "the scope, the pretty colors, the CGI, the action, the virilty, the gung-ho technocracy, the hackneyed love story and societal commentary." Not a single one. So 0 for 8 on that.

"Bullshit. Avatar will have more problems grossing 1/10th of Titanic's entire take than Crazy@Heart and a Single Man will have in making 1/10 of Avatar's gross."

Well, that's just silly. Assuming you mean worldwide for both numbers, 'Avatar' will make $200 million (more than 1/10) within 2 weeks of release. 'A Single Man' probably won't make it into more than 500 theaters, and certainly won't gross $20 million. And the same with 'Crazy Heart' (which won't have any real worldwide gross because it's about country music).

Jeff Bridges and Julianne Moore don't mean shit at the box office, DZ. I love 'em both, but they don't draw the crowds.

"Except these movies will have an impact, because audiences who saw Walk the Line, BBM, The Hours, and the Bucket List will be more receptive to these flicks than Avatar."

People saw 'Walk the Line' because it was Johnny Cash, as opposed to a fictional country star like Dewey Cox. 'The Hours' was sold on Nicole Kidman, because she was bankable at the time and Julianne Moore has never been bankable. And if Jeff Bridges, Colin Firth, Julianne Moore, and Maggie Gyllenhaal were all in a movie together, it wouldn't have gross in a lifetime what a Jack Nicholson movie grosses on opening weekend.

Still, I must say, those are among the least ridiculous comparisons you've ever made.

"They also had actors who sell well overseas."

Who's the actor in 'Titanic' who sold well overseas? And think before you say Dicaprio, since this is the movie that made that true.

comment #49

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "I like when DZ offers links that specifically say nothing about what he's saying they prove. In this case, just to confirm, that link says nothing at all about pre-release speculation on 'Gattaca', and doesn't even quote a critic saying 'Gattaca' is any of the following: "the scope, the pretty colors, the CGI, the action, the virilty, the gung-ho technocracy, the hackneyed love story and societal commentary." Not a single one. So 0 for 8 on that."

That's why I used it in the same the context of Riddick, because Gattaca was supposed to be about the commentary. And last time I checked, the link did bring up that latter issue.

"Assuming you mean worldwide for both numbers, 'Avatar' will make $200 million (more than 1/10) within 2 weeks of release."

Maybe the Shyamalan Avatar, if he's lucky, but not the Cameron one. If The Abyss and even Aliens couldn't do those numbers, adjusted for inflation, Avatar sure as fuck doesn't have a remote chance in hell of that happening. Hell, Final Fantasy's a brand name around the world, and that movie spin-off didn'[t make $200 million.

" 'A Single Man' probably won't make it into more than 500 theaters, and certainly won't gross $20 million."

It could, with enough Oscar buzz. Definitely more than the limp reaction Avatar's getting, anyway.

"And the same with 'Crazy Heart' (which won't have any real worldwide gross because it's about country music)."

And yet I just cited a movie featuring country music which did reasonably well WW.

"Jeff Bridges and Julianne Moore don't mean shit at the box office, DZ. I love 'em both, but they don't draw the crowds."

But it's not about Bridges and Moore. They're just selling the concepts of their respective films.

"People saw 'Walk the Line' because it was Johnny Cash, as opposed to a fictional country star like Dewey Cox."

They saw Walk the Line, partly because Reese was in it, and partly because it was a shitty year for movies overall. Johnny Cash is probably as well known to this generation of PG-13 movie-goers as Ray Charles was when Foxx played the latter performer. So WOM probably helped those musical bio-pics more than anything. Dewey Cox bombed, because it spoofed, a specific genre of music which only people of a certain generation would get, and because John C. Reilly is not a box office draw.

And Nicole Kidman's never been bankable. The Hours made money, because it was this decade's Terms of Endearment. Julianne Moore may not be huge, but she probably saved Children of Men from doing worse than it could have ended up doing.

"Who's the actor in 'Titanic' who sold well overseas? And think before you say Dicaprio, since this is the movie that made that true."

Oh, really? So Claire Danes was the success behind Romeo and Juliet? That explains why The Mod Squad and Brokedown Palace were such box-office smashes. Oh, wait!

comment #50

nbxzero says ...

DeeZee - I'm a boomer and I will be in line opening day to see Avatar. I have no interest whatsoever in seeing Crazy Heart or A Single Man.

comment #51

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nbx: So I guess "Did You Hear About the Morgans?" isn't doing it for you, either?

comment #52

Gordon27 says ...

"That's why I used it in the same the context of Riddick, because Gattaca was supposed to be about the commentary. And last time I checked, the link did bring up that latter issue."

So, no evidence about Riddick, and a vague explanation about evidence for Gattaca, evidence which, upon inspection, doesn't exist.

"If The Abyss and even Aliens couldn't do those numbers, adjusted for inflation,"

'Aliens' adjusted for inflation is $254 million, which isn't to say that that means anything except that you can't even pretend that your facts are correct there.

"It could, with enough Oscar buzz. Definitely more than the limp reaction Avatar's getting, anyway."

Admit it, you didn't read Jeff's post before posting this, did you?

"And yet I just cited a movie featuring country music which did reasonably well WW."

No, you cited a movie about a world-famous beloved singer. We're talking about a movie about a fictional singer.

"But it's not about Bridges and Moore. They're just selling the concepts of their respective films."

This would almost make sense if it weren't coming from a person who argued that Brad Pitt isn't bankable.

"And Nicole Kidman's never been bankable. The Hours made money, because it was this decade's Terms of Endearment."

You're saying also, then, that Shirley MacClaine, Jack Nicholson, and '80's Debra Winger weren't bankable? That's no more ridiculous than saying Kidman in 2002 wasn't bankable.

"So Claire Danes was the success behind Romeo and Juliet?"

It did well because it's Shakespeare and deliberately starred young-looking actors who were unknown to international audiences; that's how you do Romeo and Juliet [when, exactly, are you arguing that Dicaprio became bankable if he was already bankable prior to 'Romeo and Juliet'? Did international audiences love 'Growing Pains'?]. Regardless of your own bizarre theories, Leonardo Dicaprio was not considered a bankable actor in 1997; the studio pushed hard for somebody -- and there were lots of choices -- that they considered a bigger star. You can speculate till the end of time, and I have no doubt you will, but, as per usual, the facts aren't with you.

comment #53

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "'Aliens' adjusted for inflation is $254 million, which isn't to say that that means anything except that you can't even pretend that your facts are correct there."

I'm talking foreign, not domestic.

"Admit it, you didn't read Jeff's post before posting this, did you?"

The tracking should be a lot higher, given the guy venom against New Moon and whatever fondness people still might have left over from the good Terminators and Titanic.

"No, you cited a movie about a world-famous beloved singer. We're talking about a movie about a fictional singer."

But if the guy's world-famous, that means that country is an acceptable genre outside of the U.S.

"This would almost make sense if it weren't coming from a person who argued that Brad Pitt isn't bankable."

I said he's not that bankable in the case of certain movies.

"You're saying also, then, that Shirley MacClaine, Jack Nicholson, and '80's Debra Winger weren't bankable?"

No, just Kidman. Terms of Endearment and the Hours caught on with a certain demo of people, due to the premise, and the actors were icing on the cake. But, yeah, if you want to be technical, you could argue that Jack didn't really start scoring at the box office on his own until Batman. And since when have Winger and McClaine ever screamed "box office draws"?

"That's no more ridiculous than saying Kidman in 2002 wasn't bankable."

She wasn't bankable then. Moulin Rouge! was a total bomb domestically.

"It did well because it's Shakespeare "

Yeah, because Shakespeare's really popular with the kids.

"and deliberately starred young-looking actors who were unknown to international audiences;"

"when, exactly, are you arguing that Dicaprio became bankable if he was already bankable prior to 'Romeo and Juliet'?"

Probably some time between Gilbert Grape and Basketball Diaries.

"Regardless of your own bizarre theories, Leonardo Dicaprio was not considered a bankable actor in 1997; the studio pushed hard for somebody -- and there were lots of choices -- that they considered a bigger star."

Well, yeah, but those were the same execs who thought a Keanu-less Speed sequel with Jason Patric would make money. So that doesn't really prove anything.

comment #54

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

"whatever fondness people still might have left over from the good Terminators"

Why specify that? How does that not include both the ones he directed?

"But if the guy's world-famous, that means that country is an acceptable genre outside of the U.S."

But Johnny Cash predated the "country music" genre -- he sang before rock and country branched apart -- so your point (as if you ever have one) is deemed moot.

"I said he's not that bankable in the case of certain movies."

You really can't be "kinda" bankable...do you even know what that word means? Either people go see your movies solely because of your name, or you're NOT a bankable actor.

"you could argue that Jack didn't really start scoring at the box office on his own until Batman."

You could argue that, but you would be forgetting about Cuckoo's Nest. Lemme guess, that sold all of its tickets because of Ken Kesey, right?

"She wasn't bankable then. Moulin Rouge! was a total bomb domestically."

It actually did quite well in Australia.

"Yeah, because Shakespeare's really popular with the kids."

One of the truest statements you've ever written. Actually kind of hilarious that you meant it sarcastically.

"Probably some time between Gilbert Grape and Basketball Diaries."

Yes, The Quick and the Dead really solidified his bankability worldwide.

"Well, yeah, but those were the same execs who thought a Keanu-less Speed sequel with Jason Patric would make money. So that doesn't really prove anything."

Neither do your continued attempts at "debating" film, and especially box office.

comment #55

DeeZee says ...

Kane: "How does that not include both the ones he directed?"

Well, that depends when you came of age to see a Cameron movie.

"But Johnny Cash predated the "country music" genre -- he sang before rock and country branched apart -- so your point (as if you ever have one) is deemed moot."

Um, no, country's always been around, but Cash helped mainstream it.

"You really can't be "kinda" bankable...do you even know what that word means? "

Unfortunately, Brad Pitt can be kinda bankable. See Seven Years in Tibet, Meet Joe Black, Fight Club's theatrical take, 'Jesse James, and Benjamin Button.

"You could argue that, but you would be forgetting about Cuckoo's Nest. Lemme guess, that sold all of its tickets because of Ken Kesey, right?"

It probably did well, because there was a huge Vietnam backlash, and it fit the likes of other sardonic films of that era such as M*A*S*H and Deer Hunter.

"It actually did quite well in Australia."

Well, of course it did.

"One of the truest statements you've ever written. "

So explain why O, Ten Things I Hate About You, and the Ian McKellan Richard III didn't do as well as Romeo and Juliet.

"Yes, The Quick and the Dead really solidified his bankability worldwide."

Actually, I was thinking more along the time that the WOM on those flicks I mentioned was high enough to develop a fanbase for the guy, which started with Romeo, and peaked with Titanic.

comment #56

Gordon27 says ...

How DZ Argues:

"I'm talking foreign, not domestic. "

#1 rule of DZ arguing - after you've been proven wrong, re-define what you said; even though it is clearly evident that you were talking WW total grosses, just say "No, I only meant domestic" or "No, I only meant foreign". Later, if somebody cites domestic grosses to prove their point, say that the movie didn't even make any money without the foreign grosses. Just like here:

"She wasn't bankable then. Moulin Rouge! was a total bomb domestically."

#2: Make exaggerated claims ($60mil on a $50 mil budget is hardly a total bomb), and cite selective statistics (Kidman was a consistent draw internationally, and the movies she made over this time period were marketed completely on her shoulders).

"So explain why O, Ten Things I Hate About You, and the Ian McKellan Richard III didn't do as well as Romeo and Juliet. "

#3: Misunderstand the conversation thoroughly -- either deliberately or due to incredible stupidity -- and then make a poor leap of logic to bring in other, unrelated movies. Try to find movies which got absolutely no advertising support, and don't worry if at least one of the movies you cite did pretty decent business.

So, here's a question, DZ; if Dicaprio is the only reason that 'Romeo + Juliet' made money, then how can you say Nicole Kidman *isn't* bankable when the Baz Luhrmann movie which she starred in, his next film, made more than 'R&J' (here too, but I'm talking specifically foreign, since you're making such a big deal about foreign, in this case). I mean, it seems to anybody reading this like you're being completely illogical just in order to be contrarian.

comment #57

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "#1 rule of DZ arguing - after you've been proven wrong, re-define what you said; even though it is clearly evident that you were talking WW total grosses, just say "No, I only meant domestic" or "No, I only meant foreign"."

In the case of Aliens, I did mean foreign. But I'm still right about Abyss.

"Later, if somebody cites domestic grosses to prove their point, say that the movie didn't even make any money without the foreign grosses. "

Yep. Moulin Rouge was clearly meant to be another Romeo and Juliet, or it wouldn't have happened.

"Try to find movies which got absolutely no advertising support, and don't worry if at least one of the movies you cite did pretty decent business."

I saw plenty of ads for Ten Things. And O and Richard III did get ads. The former was marketed as "controversial" at the time.

"So, here's a question, DZ; if Dicaprio is the only reason that 'Romeo + Juliet' made money, then how can you say Nicole Kidman *isn't* bankable when the Baz Luhrmann movie which she starred in, his next film, made more than 'R&J' (here too, but I'm talking specifically foreign, since you're making such a big deal about foreign, in this case)."

Um, Romeo was shot on the cheap, so it made more money than MR.

comment #58

CitizenKanedforChewingGum says ...

Far too much ridiculousness to even begin to address, but I will just say that -- atmosphere-wise -- throwing The Deer Hunter in the same boat as M*A*S*H*, let alone using the word "sardonic" to describe the former film is proof that you either: a) inexplicably and completely misread the tone of the film (I would probably describe it as "elegiac," which is about as far away from "sardonic" as humanly possible), b) are talking out of your ass having not seen the film, or c) are being a typically contrarian jerk who takes the opposite stand of anything anyone ever says here in a sadly desperate attempt to vindicate your complete existence via message boards.

You're seriously retarded. I basically don't know if you're retarded in how you watch actual films, how you discuss films, or just in how you refuse to ever try to relate to another person's perspective on things. It could very easily be all of these things.

I'll just ask you a direct question: what did you personally find humorous about The Deer Hunter that would ever warrant a direct mood comparison to a movie such as M*A*S*H?

Breathlessly awaiting the insanity that will be your response.

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