"Everything's Falling Apart"

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A fellow Oscar handicapper recently conveyed this observation on the fly. He was talking about some late-breaking Oscar contending films that have begun to be seen and/or whispered about over the last week or so. (And no, Brothers was not part of the discussion since it only begins showing tonight.) I'm not saying or implying this myself -- I was just struck by this guy's powers of summation. I chuckled, I mean.

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Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 19, 2009 at 8:33 AM

comment #1

Irving Thalberg says ...

If the implication here is that, among others, the man who brought us MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA wasn't quite up to the task of turning one of the greatest movies of all time into a newfangled musical romp costarring Fergie, well then color me shocked.

Posted by Irving Thalberg at November 19, 2009 8:49 AM

comment #2

dinovelvet says ...

Damn, and I was thinking Alvin and the Chipmunks : The Squeakuel was a shoo-in.

Posted by dinovelvet at November 19, 2009 8:56 AM

comment #3

Rich S. says ...

You only need one good film/performance in each category. Of course, that doesn't leave much room for "Oscar handicapping suspense," our humble moderator's bread and butter.

Posted by Rich S. at November 19, 2009 9:17 AM

comment #4

Colin says ...

It fell apart last year when Slumdog got that cakewalk for every category it was in.

Posted by Colin at November 19, 2009 11:29 AM

comment #5

Krillian says ...

I take this to mean that Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones aren't going to be as good as people hoped, and with Ten Best Picture nominations, we'll probably get two or three wacky titles in there, like Inglourious Basterds?

Posted by Krillian at November 19, 2009 12:15 PM

comment #6

Hallick says ...

Why does that surprise anyone? This is exactly what happens almost every year around this time because for some silly reason people love to nominate films in their own mind as mortal locks before they actually see them. So you wind up with month after month of near-acclaim for a movie like "Invictus" before it's finally viewed and people start to go, "meh". Maybe that won't happen with Eastwood's film, but still.

A project like "The Lovely Bones" is especially susceptible to this phenomenon because it comes from a bestselling book, which is just the kind of project that's nearly guaranteed (Yeah, I'm looking at you "Memoirs of a Geisha" and "In The Garden of Good and Evil"!) to disappoint on arrival.

Posted by Hallick at November 19, 2009 12:46 PM

comment #7

Jeffrey Wells says ...

Nobody's seen Invictus yet. In my realm, I mean.

Posted by Jeffrey Wells at November 19, 2009 12:46 PM

comment #8

Hallick says ...

"Inglourious Basterds" wouldn't be a wacky nominee when you have ten slots to fill. It did a better than expected job at the box office and garnered a great deal of critical support, the detractors notwithstanding. If "The Hurt Locker" is considered at this point a near-lock, Basterds is in too. The wacky Best Picture nomination would be that Michael Jackson concert film, "This Is It".

Posted by Hallick at November 19, 2009 12:51 PM

comment #9

Hallick says ...

I just don't like that every year there's a handful of movies during the Nov/Dec Oscar season that get the red carpet treatment sight-unseen right before getting dumped on for being not quite as Academy Award worthy as they were supposed to be, like they reneged on a promise to the award guessers or something. "Invictus" fits as an example of a film that could be experiencing that this year.

Posted by Hallick at November 19, 2009 1:05 PM

comment #10

Facenda says ...

How 'bout dumping on it because it's a one-note movie? Is that OK?

Posted by Facenda at November 19, 2009 1:24 PM

comment #11

Hallick says ...

"How 'bout dumping on it because it's a one-note movie? Is that OK?"

If you've seen it and it is a one-note movie, why wouldn't it be?

Posted by Hallick at November 19, 2009 1:27 PM

comment #12

Phreaker says ...

People said the same thing about Munich and about The Reader - both of them rallied a nod. With only five slots.

Posted by Phreaker at November 19, 2009 8:23 PM

comment #13

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