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A fellow Oscar handicapper recently conveyed this observation on the fly. He was talking about some late-breaking Oscar contending films that have begun to be seen and/or whispered about over the last week or so. (And no, Brothers was not part of the discussion since it only begins showing tonight.) I'm not saying or implying this myself -- I was just struck by this guy's powers of summation. I chuckled, I mean.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on November 19, 2009 at 8:33 AM
comment #1
Irving Thalberg
says ...
If the implication here is that, among others, the man who brought us MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA wasn't quite up to the task of turning one of the greatest movies of all time into a newfangled musical romp costarring Fergie, well then color me shocked.
Posted by Irving Thalberg
at November 19, 2009 8:49 AM
comment #2
dinovelvet
says ...
Damn, and I was thinking Alvin and the Chipmunks : The Squeakuel was a shoo-in.
Posted by dinovelvet
at November 19, 2009 8:56 AM
comment #3
Rich S.
says ...
You only need one good film/performance in each category. Of course, that doesn't leave much room for "Oscar handicapping suspense," our humble moderator's bread and butter.
Posted by Rich S.
at November 19, 2009 9:17 AM
comment #4
Colin
says ...
It fell apart last year when Slumdog got that cakewalk for every category it was in.
Posted by Colin
at November 19, 2009 11:29 AM
comment #5
Krillian
says ...
I take this to mean that Nine, Invictus, and The Lovely Bones aren't going to be as good as people hoped, and with Ten Best Picture nominations, we'll probably get two or three wacky titles in there, like Inglourious Basterds?
Posted by Krillian
at November 19, 2009 12:15 PM
comment #6
Hallick
says ...
Why does that surprise anyone? This is exactly what happens almost every year around this time because for some silly reason people love to nominate films in their own mind as mortal locks before they actually see them. So you wind up with month after month of near-acclaim for a movie like "Invictus" before it's finally viewed and people start to go, "meh". Maybe that won't happen with Eastwood's film, but still.
A project like "The Lovely Bones" is especially susceptible to this phenomenon because it comes from a bestselling book, which is just the kind of project that's nearly guaranteed (Yeah, I'm looking at you "Memoirs of a Geisha" and "In The Garden of Good and Evil"!) to disappoint on arrival.
Posted by Hallick
at November 19, 2009 12:46 PM
comment #7
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
Nobody's seen Invictus yet. In my realm, I mean.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at November 19, 2009 12:46 PM
comment #8
Hallick
says ...
"Inglourious Basterds" wouldn't be a wacky nominee when you have ten slots to fill. It did a better than expected job at the box office and garnered a great deal of critical support, the detractors notwithstanding. If "The Hurt Locker" is considered at this point a near-lock, Basterds is in too. The wacky Best Picture nomination would be that Michael Jackson concert film, "This Is It".
Posted by Hallick
at November 19, 2009 12:51 PM
comment #9
Hallick
says ...
I just don't like that every year there's a handful of movies during the Nov/Dec Oscar season that get the red carpet treatment sight-unseen right before getting dumped on for being not quite as Academy Award worthy as they were supposed to be, like they reneged on a promise to the award guessers or something. "Invictus" fits as an example of a film that could be experiencing that this year.
Posted by Hallick
at November 19, 2009 1:05 PM
comment #10
Facenda
says ...
How 'bout dumping on it because it's a one-note movie? Is that OK?
Posted by Facenda
at November 19, 2009 1:24 PM
comment #11
Hallick
says ...
"How 'bout dumping on it because it's a one-note movie? Is that OK?"
If you've seen it and it is a one-note movie, why wouldn't it be?
Posted by Hallick
at November 19, 2009 1:27 PM
comment #12
Phreaker
says ...
People said the same thing about Munich and about The Reader - both of them rallied a nod. With only five slots.
Posted by Phreaker
at November 19, 2009 8:23 PM
comment #13
scamanti
says ...
Good info thanks for sharing with us.
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Posted by scamanti
at January 5, 2010 11:54 AM
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