comment #1

Tom Reagan says ...

If Precious wins tons of film critics awards, I really don't see how it can lose on a Best Director nomination, especially since many feel it's the frontrunner already. At this point, I'd give the directing Oscar to Kathryn Bigelow.

comment #2

markj says ...

Jeff, that's 11 Best Picture nominees you've listed. And no 'Hurt Locker'? Wells reply: I tapped this out too quickly -- fixed the issues. List down to 10, Hurt Locker in its proper place.

comment #3

DarienStyles says ...

Why is "A Serious Man" a Best Picture contender, but not "The Hurt Locker"? The film seems to have a lot of love surrounding it, and Kathryn Bigelow is a certainty for a Best Director nomination. Wells reply: I made a mistake in leaving out Hurt Locker -- it's back in where it always was.

I feel "Avatar" will turn out to be a major turkey at the box-office, akin to the likes of "Dune" and "Heaven's Gate". The budget is too large and 3D is a drawback, since a mega hit needs a very mainstream audience, and not everyone is comfortable with the glasses. "Monsters vs Aliens" didn't do well internationally, because of that. I'm yet to see a 3D movie reach 300 million at the box-office.

comment #4

LexG says ...

Embrace THE BOX.

Richard Kelly should be in the running, director-wise. That thing was MUNICH/ZODIAC level '70s legit and unsettling.

Back on planet earth: I liked DISTRICT 9 a lot but I don't see how it REMOTELY comes close to making an awards play. Not by a longshot -- not director, not picture. Sharlto Copley deserves actor consideration, but can't even see that happening.

comment #5

Jack South P.I. says ...

I'm putting the over/under on Wells' predictions at 6.5 Where do people stand?

(I say under.)

comment #6

Colin says ...

I agree with Lex on District 9, certainly fun but has the same problems as Star Trek: lazy writing.

Wells has been pushing for Hurt Locker all year maybe it was just a slip-up on the keyboard.

comment #7

televisiontears says ...

Lex, were you really that much of a fan of The Box? I'm seeing it in an hour, and honestly, my only positive expectations are for the cinematography. Stephen Poster has done incredible work in both of Kelly's films, and regardless of how you feel about Southland Tales, there were some scenes that were visually on par with the best of the decade.

That sounds like a joke, but I'm being completely serious. The context of the shots along with the torrent of information takes a bit away from the pure beauty that some of the composition that these scenes hold, but take a look at this frame (forget the text) for an example.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2343/2175270544_5b3c5904e0.jpg

comment #8

televisiontears says ...

In retrospect, that pic is a poor example since it's severely cropped. You get my point, though.

comment #9

Michael says ...

I am in agreeance with LexG about The Box - totally unsettling, batshit crazy, and ultimately engaging and thought provoking. Definitely not for everyone but I am a fan. Of course I am a fan of all of his movies (especially Southland Tales) so I am not the best representative of the average movie goer.

And also Stephen Poster provides wonderful cinematography work in The Box that might actually be more dynamic than in Southland Tales.

comment #10

Eloi Manning says ...

Nobody in real life that I've talked to has enjoyed A Serious Man. I've not seen it myself, but the general public don't seem to be going for it, so I think it could miss out.

comment #11

Aris P says ...

They don't like it b/c it's not a traditional film in any way. Not paint by numbers. Understated acting. So they don't like that. Also it's different, and they don't like that either. I will add, furthermore, that the messages it presents aren't as subtle as a hammer to the testicles, which most people NEED to decide if they "get" a movie.

That's why they don't like it.

comment #12

Jeffrey Wells says ...

I screwed up and forgot to include The Hurt Locker among the serious Best Picture contenders. An error made in haste...sorry...and I took out The Lovely Bones so the Best Picture list now comes to ten....fixed now.

comment #13

Gordon27 says ...

Jack South - that's not fair, he's got eleven. I mean, I'm still going with "under", but the extra guess makes it harder.

comment #14

Gordon27 says ...

Jeff - let's hope the voters don't make the same mistake!

comment #15

Gordon27 says ...

Jack - a better game occurred to me; let's predict the angry headline that Jeff puts up when 'Basterds' gets nominated and 'A Serious Man' doesn't.

comment #16

The Winchester says ...

Nine will become this year's Dreamgirls, you watch.

I still think District 9 has a shot because it was a popcorn pleasing flick with plenty of violence but it had that whole apartheid allegory going on, which makes people think the film (and by extension, themselves) is deeper than it actually is. And this is coming from a guy who loved the flick.

comment #17

lawnorder says ...

NINE is going to suck so hard. And INVICTUS will disappoint.

comment #18

televisiontears says ...

Having just seen The Box, I have to jump on this little bandwagon of love for it. It feels like Lynch made a thriller in the late '60s while in the midst of a sci-fi kick. It has surprisingly solid performances across the board (Diaz handles her final scenes with a quiet, graceful intensity), and definitely the best score I've heard since There Will Be Blood.

Not enough can be written about the score. The Hermann-esque abrasiveness keeps you on edge during the whole film while placing you perfectly in the period aesthetic that Kelly reinforces through the whole film. If this score doesn't get an Oscar nod, I will be tossing bricks.

The narrative drags a bit towards the end of the second act due to too much foreboding exposition, but it's without a doubt in my top ten of the year. Admittedly, my expectations were low, but I was never expecting something of this caliber.

comment #19

televisiontears says ...

Let me say "the whole film" once more for good measure. The Whole Film.

Sorry for that.

comment #20

LexG says ...

Televisiontears:

AWESOME to hear you say it, and THANK YOU for mentioning the EXCELLENT score. The whole movie I was wondering who it was... one of the most aggressively scored movies imaginable, but so perfect, as it (probably intentionally) harkened back to the emotive '70s scores by Cronenberg-era Howard Shore or DePalma-era Pino Dinoggio.

Diaz indeed in great form (following an underrated and I think award-worthy turn in My Sister's Keeper)... and MARSDEN POWER! Didn't know the dude had it in him.

Yeah, not all of the tangents pay off, and it's as precocious as Southland Tales, but more ambitious and experimental and stylish than just about anything else imaginable. Kelly's three for three with me -- four for four if you count his Domino script -- but cannot talk this up enough.

Way weirder, darker, crazier and more legit than it's getting credit for... BOX POWER. Believe it.

comment #21

markj says ...

DarienStyles: Avatar will be a huge box-office hit, it's showing in 2D as well as 3D. And it has a storyline that audiences will be able to relate to, unlike Dune and Heaven's Gate.

comment #22

K. Bowen says ...

Any list without Bright Star is just plain wrong.

An Education is the American Beauty of 2009.

comment #23

Rich S. says ...

I think the bigger news here is that Jeffrey is finally, begrudgingly, including Inglourious Basterds in his list of Oscar nominees. Sure, he's doing it in a backhanded way, but it's still there.

comment #24

Floyd Thursby says ...

Agree with K. Bowen. Bright Star will definitely be one of the ten. Even Tarantino wrote Campion a fan letter.