comment #1

DeeZee says ...

They usually post the current figures the next day. And while that is high by Monday standards, it still sounds a tad front-loaded to me. That's the kind of dough Titanic was making *per week*. [And probably more, if you adjust for inflation.] So Avatar could actually face a nasty drop by the weekend, when it goes up against the Big Three.

comment #2

iamjoe says ...

DZ, shut the fuck up.

comment #3

gradystiles says ...

DZ, for once, you're actually right about something. Yes, the weekday box office grosses are always announced the following day.

Other than that, your post is the usual collection of nonsense.

comment #4

Dan Revill says ...

I concur with iamjoe.

comment #5

Ryansi51 says ...

yes, iamjoe knows of what he speaks.

comment #6

gradystiles says ...

I just re-read his post. He seems to actually be somewhat slamming Avatar for making as much money in a day as Titanic did in a week--as if that's a bad thing. Am I reading that correctly?

comment #7

Ryansi51 says ...

yeah, he makes no sense.

One thing though, if you look at the movies on that B.O. list, their monday numbers are all about 2/3 of what they made over the weekend.

hardly something extraordinary

comment #8

gradystiles says ...

It's extraordinary, Ryan, in that it's the 3rd highest non-holiday Monday ever--and the best non-summer Monday ever.

comment #9

DeeZee says ...

grady: "He seems to actually be somewhat slamming Avatar for making as much money in a day as Titanic did in a week--as if that's a bad thing."

Well, the thing is that demand for Avatar could peter out faster by the weekend this way, especially when you take into account that Avatar's box office is inflated by 3D sales, which means it takes more of that attendance to keep that kind of thing going. TDK was helped by 3D, but it didn't need it to keep its level of attendance.

comment #10

Mr. F. says ...

TDK wasn't actually released in 3D...

The word of mouth on the Avatar 3D is pretty spectacular -- why would the demand peter out? Especially when Avatar, in 3D or not, offers something none of the other so-called "big three" have to offer?

Jesus. I just don't get it.

comment #11

DeeZee says ...

Mr. F: Because people have shorter attention spans nowadays, and all it takes is one gimmicky concept to knock a blockbuster from its perch? And the Big Three offer comedic, non-preachy entertainment for people who hate dealing with the the holiday rush.

comment #12

shanes5 says ...

Keep ignoring the trend and facts...just keep digging that hole you're in deeper.

Denial is the first phase of loss/grief...I wonder what dollar total will bring on the anger phase.

comment #13

mattn says ...

"Big Three offer...non-preachy"

WTF? This is an Avatar thread, right?

comment #14

BizzarroJeffWells says ...

@ DZ: "Gimmicky?" NO, The use of 3D in AVATAR is not a gimmick at all. Have you even seen thie flick, sir/madam/he-she?

comment #15

DeeZee says ...

BJW: No, but I've heard it's more likely to win a Miss America contest than a membership in Mensa.

comment #16

BoomerSooner says ...

I still think this movie will take a huge hit when Sherlock Holmes comes out. The advertising campaign has been excellent for it and will likely steal a good chunk of Avatar's audience.

comment #17

moreliketrombley says ...

Everyone just ignore D.Z.

I wonder if Jeff Wells' advertisers know that 50% of his pageviews are a lonely Suncoast employee who argues everything to a point of infinite meaninglessness and finds it remarkable that there's a slow news day in the movie world a few days before Xmas.

D.Z. you're WRONG ABOUT AVATAR. SUCK IT AND GO SEE IT AGAIN SO YOU CAN FIND MORE TO HATE.

Whatever happened to that weirdo who claimed Beowulf would be the biggest movie ever?

comment #18

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

Wonder when it's gonna dawn on D.Z that his $450M prediction for AVATAR just bit the dust. At this pace, with just the North American take added to where the international total as of yesterday, the gross will be at $330M

So, anyone else think it will only make another $120M????

Also, notice he didn't acknowledge that TDK was only in regular IMAX, not 3D.

I'm telling you, he's George Bush...

comment #19

K. Bowen says ...

The CEO for my day job is a film fan, and today a bunch of people from the office went to Avatar. At a Tuesday 11:30 a.m. show in Frisco, Texas, it was wall-to-wall, a near sell out. On a Tuesday morning. Stunning.

comment #20

BoomerSooner says ...

The film came out the Friday that most kids (grade school and college) got on break. The timing of its release was beyond perfect.

comment #21

DeeZee says ...

Deathtongue: Oh, well, I forgot the IMAX thing. Still, over-priced tickets are over-priced tickets.

comment #22

Gordon27 says ...

"And while that is high by Monday standards, it still sounds a tad front-loaded to me."

In two weeks, you're going to be saying, "Yeah, well, it's still front-loaded." Front-loaded on a Monday. Man, you're awesome.

"That's the kind of dough Titanic was making *per week*. [And probably more, if you adjust for inflation.]"

Yep, you're right, if you adjust for inflation, 'Titanic' was making more per week than 'Avatar' made in the 4th day of its release. You put your finger on something there.

"So Avatar could actually face a nasty drop by the weekend, when it goes up against the Big Three."

You've already predicted a 75% drop, DZ, something which is entirely unprecedented for a December wide release.

Oh, also, my memory's getting a little foggy. Everything you've said so far about 'Avatar', has it been proven wrong or right?

comment #23

Gordon27 says ...

"I still think this movie will take a huge hit when Sherlock Holmes comes out."

Boomer - with their respective word of mouths, I've been saying for a week or two that Holmes opens at #1, Avatar opens at #2 but with a very low drop -- and Avatar retakes #1 the next weekend, because Holmes really is going to be front-loaded.

comment #24

messiahcomplexio says ...

DZ
The reason nobody in here takes you seriously is that nobody believes you can be honest when shown to be in error.
I've read you on different sites for years and
I've never seen you admit to being wrong about anything, ever.
so,
If you prediction was 450 million for avatar and it exceeds that total, will you admit you were wrong?

No excuses. No hedging. Not even a sorry.

Just I, DZ made an incorrect prediction.

I'm actually on the fence as to weather I think your intellectually capable of doing such a thing.

I for one, will joining the always growing "shut the fuck up DZ" club if you can't.

on the other hand, if it doesn't exceed that total, everyone in here giving DZ a hard time should come correct and give him credit for correctly reading the tealeaves.

Many have already given up on you as a whackjob.
This is my last stand.
We'll see.

comment #25

messiahcomplexio says ...

BTW Poland makes a pretty compelling argument on MCN that Avatar will see little or no drop next weekend.

"Last year, for instance, the worst drop in the Top 10 on Christmas weekend from the weekend before was 22.2% for the hideous The Day The Earth Stood Still.
Assuming he weather is better next weekend, Avatar is likely to go UP for the weekend."

comment #26

Gordon27 says ...

"everyone in here giving DZ a hard time should come correct and give him credit for correctly reading the tealeaves. "

Just to clarify, the tealeaves told him it definitely wouldn't make $130 million. Then he said, "Well, with 3-D, maybe $200" and I asked him if he was just building in a lot of wiggle room, and he said, "Nope, I definitely know this thing's going to not make $130 million."

So, whether he's right about the ridiculous $450 claim or not (which seems incredibly unlikely, just based on simple math), he still owes us all an "I was completely 100% wrong about 'Avatar' so far" before anybody owes him an "Okay, you were eventually right."

comment #27

BoomerSooner says ...

Gordon,

I'm not entirely convinced Sherlock Holmes will be as front-loaded as you believe. Front-loaded movies are usually the midnight-showing heavy, heavily hyped, fanboy sort of movies. I think Holmes will act like a family release, with a very solid opening on Friday and then a nice bump the Saturday after. I don't see it having a strong midnight tracking since I don't think there is a major push for it.

As for whether Avatar overtakes it, yeah, it's possible and maybe likely, but if this film is a crowd-pleaser like I think it will be, it could be one of those stretches where they both make similar bank for a few weeks, with Avatar's being more impressive considering it's a week older.

comment #28

Gordon27 says ...

"I'm not entirely convinced Sherlock Holmes will be as front-loaded as you believe. "

Yeah, I'm not gonna put a number on it, but I think it will be more front-loaded than 'Avatar', and they'll be close enough on Christmas weekend that it won't take a much bigger drop for 'Avatar' to re-take #1.

"Front-loaded movies are usually the midnight-showing heavy, heavily hyped, fanboy sort of movies."

We could debate whether this is true of 'Holmes' or not, but I'm basing it more on the worse word of mouth in the build-up to it. This isn't to say I think the movie will die -- I think it'll be a crowd pleaser as well. But I think it will be a standard December blockbuster, rather than a crazy Cameron ubermovie.

"I don't see it having a strong midnight tracking since I don't think there is a major push for it."

Are they really doing midnight shows on Christmas Eve?

Anyway, take no offense if I don't continue this conversation; I realize it's all just speculation at this point, and I'd rather just casually look forward to getting around to seeing 'Sherlock Holmes', rather than dwelling on whether it will make $50mil or $80. To me, 'Holmes' just seems like the sort of movie where everybody knows if they're interested, and word of mouth would have to be really good (at least as good as 'Avatar's) to get people to decide to go when they don't already want to. Whereas 'Avatar' is shaping up to be this season's 'Lord of the Rings', where even the people who don't care much want to see what all the hype is about, and even the people who don't like that sort of thing are convinced to go purely for the cinematic experience.

comment #29

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "Boomer - with their respective word of mouths, I've been saying for a week or two that Holmes opens at #1, Avatar opens at #2 but with a very low drop --"

I think Avatar's gonna be #3 or #4, because it's competing with not just Holmes, but the Chipmunks 2 thing and "It's Complicated". Seriously, you really are not taking into consideration the power of the CG 'toon sequel and the Streep chick flick. I think Ice Age 3 is FOX's only money-maker thus far this year.

"So, whether he's right about the ridiculous $450 claim or not (which seems incredibly unlikely, just based on simple math), he still owes us all an "I was completely 100% wrong about 'Avatar' so far" "

So if it bombs, then the only thing I'd be wrong about is when it bombed.

"To me, 'Holmes' just seems like the sort of movie where everybody knows if they're interested, and word of mouth would have to be really good (at least as good as 'Avatar's) to get people to decide to go when they don't already want to. "

If WOM determined these things, then TF2 would have bombed. Heck, the only reason I imagine Wild Wild West didn't do that kind of money was because it was up against Big Daddy.

"Whereas 'Avatar' is shaping up to be this season's 'Lord of the Rings', where even the people who don't care much want to see what all the hype is about, "

Except LOTR only cost $100 million per film, which means it made its money back on the first one. Even the optimists don't expect Avatar to make that kind of profit.

messiah: I'm not sure how Avatar can have a higher weekend, when it's got even tougher competition than the Keanu movie. But yeah, that's gotta be a bitch, to be fourth place after that Ratatouille/Shrek wannabe. At least if it was #2 after Seven Pounds, and Yes Man at #3, it wouldn't seem so bad. But that has got to be a pretty dismal second weekend.

comment #30

Matthew Lucas says ...

I saw it Monday afternoon at around 3:30 to a packed house. I was shocked. Especially with school still in session around here.

comment #31

DeeZee says ...

Oh, yeah. My correction. That Museum sequel made money, too. Though not as much as the first one. And if you add the quadruple bomb threat of Chun-Li, DB:E, Jennifer's Body, and Beth Cooper, I imagine Murdoch's not gonna be a happy camper if Avatar still winds up in the red-especially when the only flicks his company has to look forward to next year are Tooth Fairy and Percy Jackson. The AVP reboot could be good, but Brody can't sell shit. Yeah, I'll really be disappointed if the Eloi ironically kill News Corp's Q1 2010.

comment #32

MrTribeca says ...

DeeZee keeps talking about the massive hit Avatar will have when Sherlock Holmes opens but does anyone know what the actual tracking is on the movie?

comment #33

Ghost072 says ...

I don't mind saying I told you so about this one at all. Some of us in here knew it was foolish to doubt Avatar's ability to become a phenomenon. Cameron has created something that demands to seen in theaters and the word of mouth stresses that fact, so this movie will have real legs. Titanic was huge because women went to see it multiple times in the theater...Avatar will be huge because people across all demographics will do the same.

But more important than any of that, Avatar is really good fucking movie and Cameron once again succeeded under incredible pressure and immense expectations. He may be an asshole on the set (allegedly) but all that pathos and demand for excellence makes it to the screen.

comment #34

DeeZee says ...

Tribeca: Even if Holmes disappoints opening weekend, again, that Chipmunk thing and that Streep thing will still be able to divert enough ticket sales from Avatar to make it a one-weekend wonder. Especially when you take into account their shorter running times. Oh, and it looks like "Up in The Air" expands tomorrow. If even a misfire like 'Goats can make its money back with Clooney's name attached to it, imagine what something of a higher pedigree can do.

comment #35

Ghost072 says ...

"that Chipmunk thing and that Streep thing will still be able to divert enough ticket sales from Avatar to make it a one-weekend wonder."

Dude, seriously. Do you REALLY believe that Avatar is going to be a "one-weekend wonder?" That is so stupid it's almost beyond belief. This movie hasn't even started to put asses in seats and you seriously think it's done already? I'm not one to pile on, but you realize that next weekend is only a few days away, right?

comment #36

DeeZee says ...

Ghost: "Titanic was huge because women went to see it multiple times in the theater...Avatar will be huge because people across all demographics will do the same."

Again, Titanic didn't have to contend with two straight Fridays taking place on major holidays, while competing against at least three different films which might be considered winter hits in their own right.

"But more important than any of that, Avatar is really good fucking movie"

That's debatable, even to the people who like it.

"This movie hasn't even started to put asses in seats and you seriously think it's done already?"

Yep. If it had come out a week earlier, it'd be a different story, but, the suits were so greedy for the next Titanic that they fumbled Avatar's schedule in favor of a make-or-break pre-Christmas run in a desperate attempt to out-hype Holmes.

comment #37

Gordon27 says ...

"So if it bombs, then the only thing I'd be wrong about is when it bombed. "

Not really; you were wrong about it only grossing $130 million, you were wrong about 3-D inflating a ticket's cost by 50%, you were wrong about it not doing well in international markets, you were wrong about it only doing well in "geek friendly" international markets, you were wrong about it tracking poorly, you were wrong that it would have poor word of mouth, you were wrong that the demographics would skew geek, and you were wrong that the movie would get bad reviews.

"Even if Holmes disappoints opening weekend, again, that Chipmunk thing and that Streep thing"

The question was "do you have any tracking on Holmes?" and your answer is "here are two other movies that I not only don't have tracking for but that I can't even remember the names of that are going to do better than 'Avatar'."

comment #38

DeeZee says ...

"you were wrong about it only grossing $130 million, "

I didn't say only, just that it would likely only make that amount, if 3D didn't play a factor. And if I'm wrong about those sales inflating the numbers, then wouldn't Avatar only be grossing half, or at least 3/4 of its current take, given the severity of those snow-storms?

"you were wrong about it only doing well in "geek friendly" international markets,"

So it did better than Star Trek internationally. But unless it can do as well as TDK/Transformers 2 numbers internationally, I'll still be mostly right.

"you were wrong that it would have poor word of mouth,"

We'll wait until this weekend to prove that one.

"you were wrong that the demographics would skew geek,"

Last time I checked, man-children still factor into the majority of that film's sales.

" and you were wrong that the movie would get bad reviews."

RT's currently at 84%, so not really.

comment #39

Gordon27 says ...

"just that it would likely only make that amount"

You didn't say likely, you said "I definitely know this thing's going to not make $130 million". Here's the thread that quote is from:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2009/12/cost_effective.php

"I'll still be mostly right. "

In the sense that every specific thing you predicted didn't happen, you mean?

"We'll wait until this weekend to prove that one."

Not particularly, they track these things in all sorts of ways, which are all positive; an easy check is Fandango, which has it somewhere around 95% from a very high number of people.

"Last time I checked, man-children still factor into the majority of that film's sales."

So you consider a less than 60/40 split to be a heavy skew? Man, you're dumb.

"RT's currently at 84%"

So you're getting closer and closer to acknowledging that you're wrong. All you have to do is say it, DZ. Everybody already knows you were wrong, but some people would actually gain respect for you if you admit it.

comment #40

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

D.Z - noticed you didn't repeat your $450M prediction, can see that writing on the wall already can you?

comment #41

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

"I'm betting $150-$160 million max"

Oops.

comment #42

markj says ...

I'm guessing DeeZeewas dropped on his head as a child.

Saw Avatar for the second time last night, took a couple of old school friends. They were gobsmacked. One said: "Well, that's moviegoing wrecked for the next few years." The other said it was the most spectacular and involving blockbuster since Terminator 2. Can't really argue with either of them.

comment #43

Noah Cross says ...

DeeZee, I was thinking of going to see Avator next weekend. Do you think it will still be in the theater? I'd hate to go into the IMAX and find out they're playing Alvin and the Chipmunks instead.
(And if you have any spare time, perhaps you could practice typing "Sorry, I was wrong". It's not too hard. You can do it.)

comment #44

gradystiles says ...

Here's another gem from DZ from a previous post:

"But yeah, anyone who thinks, even with the hype, Avatar will make $200 million or more is clearly delusional."

Comedy gold, people. Comedy gold!

comment #45

Howlingman says ...

"But yeah, anyone who thinks, even with the hype, Avatar will make $200 million or more is clearly delusional."

Worldwide (and counting): $285,222,531

comment #46

Gordon27 says ...

The great thing was the cockiness with which he made fun of me when I said quite assuredly that 'Avatar' would easily make $200 million worldwide within two weeks of release.

comment #47

iamjoe says ...

To end this with a quote from Stand By Me for our dear friend DZ:

Did your mother have any kids that lived?

comment #48

crazynine says ...

To put some learning to folks in this thread: Monday was a snow day for a LOT of people on the East Coast, especially kids.

BUT the snow was beginning to melt, roads getting plowed, etc.

I'm not surprised if Avatar had a stronger-than-normal Monday because this past Monday for a big swath was in reality a "weaker weekend day."

Of course, this is just a guess, and I could be wrong, and I'll accept it if I'm wrong, because that's what human beings above the age of 8 do.

comment #49

Gordon27 says ...

That helped, but Avatar also had the rare Sunday bump.

comment #50

Dan V. says ...

I attended a second Avatar viewing at 8:45 last night (Tuesday) and the ticket line was into the street and the 3D theater was shoulder to shoulder packed. And again, with the flash of the green "Avatar" plate that concludes the film, enormous applause.

Based on last night's experience, I'd fully agree--something extraordinary is going on with Avatar.

comment #51

gradystiles says ...

crazynine, Avatar made almost $16 million yesterday, as well. Ranks behind only Dark Knight and the third Pirates movie for Tuesday gross.

comment #52

DeeZee says ...

http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/alvin-2-beating-avatar-in-todays-online-ticket-sales/

comment #53

gradystiles says ...

DZ: And? Your point is?

comment #54

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

The point is he is disparately trying to come up with some sort of half-assed negative AVATAR spin.

Only, it really works against him. Not only is AVATAR holding pretty good (33% to Chipmonks' 52%) for a movie in its second week vs one in its first, but his theory about SHERLOCK HOLMES is completely destroyed with a paltry 5% of ticket sales.

Can't wait to see how he spins this so he isn't wrong...

comment #55

Gordon27 says ...

grady - in honor of the thread title, you should've just said "Meaning...?"

comment #56

DeeZee says ...

Deathtongue: Holmes doesn't come out until Friday, so why would there be same-day ticket sales?

comment #57

DeeZee says ...

Er, tickets for it sold on the same day as the Chipmunk thing.

comment #58

Uncle Milty says ...

DZ

In six days of release (as of right now on Box Office Mojo) Avatar has made just over $300 million worldwide.

Do you honestly think it won't make another $150 million during its time in theaters?

I just want to make sure I've got your prediction correct. You keep changing your prediction, I need to keep it straight.

comment #59

DeeZee says ...

Milty: No, it just won't make it beyond $450 million or be the next Titanic or TDK.

comment #60

Uncle Milty says ...

So like I said, you don't think it will make it to $450 million (only needs another 150 to do so).

You can't keep raising your prediction from 130 to 200 to 450 to The Dark Knight to Titanic.

It's not that difficult to say a movie won't be the next Titanic or The Dark Knight. No film in the history of cinema has made more than Titanic and only one has made more than The Dark Knight.

Tee hee...

comment #61

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

"...or be the next Titanic or TDK..."

There it is, folks.

You wanted to know how he is going to weasel out of admitting he was dead wrong? Next Monday, when the world wide gross hits $450M with no end in sight, D.Z. Bush is gonna start claiming he only said it wouldn't top Titanic or TDK.

But then, I saw this coming when you wouldn't rise to the challenge of backing up his logic-defying prediction by agreeing to not posting for just one lousy month.

Man, you redefine the term "spineless"

comment #62

DeeZee says ...

Milty: Wait, I thought Gone with the Wind technically made more than both of them, due to inflation.

comment #63

Uncle Milty says ...

Unlike others that deal with you, I ignore your attempts at muddying the waters.

Your latest and final prediction is that it won't make more than 450 million worldwide.

Correct? Or did you change it again?

comment #64

DeeZee says ...

Pretty much. http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/first-look-alvin-2-beats-avatar/

comment #65

Uncle Milty says ...

If you really think that proves your prediction you're dumber than any of us thought.

Time will tell. Your prediction is now set in stone:

$450 million world wide. Tops. End of story. Good luck with that.

comment #66

Gordon27 says ...

I like DZ's response to that story; apparently, he thinks that Fox is losing out by having two movies combine to make $35 million in one day. He's going to say how 'Alvin' is stealing 'Avatar's business (an odd claim for a movie that made exactly the same amount the day before 'Alvin' was released), but then also that 'Avatar' wasn't going to make more than $16 million that day anyway. And if you point out the contradiction, he will stare at you blankly.

comment #67

Deathtongue_Groupie says ...

You know it takes a special kind of dufus to look like a complete fucktard on two different film sites.

Nice catch, Gordon: yet another DZ theory goes down like the whirly-copters during the big battle. If ALVIN is supposed to impact AVATAR, shouldn't today's grosses fucking plummet?

Hello, McFly???????

comment #68

Gordon27 says ...

DTG - my favorite as yet unmentioned contradictions amid DZ's theories (there are so many contradictions that nobody can spot them all) is that 'Alvin' will do better than 'Avatar' because 'Alvin' is a CGI cartoon.

comment #69

Wiggumx says ...

"Oh, and it looks like "Up in The Air" expands tomorrow. If even a misfire like 'Goats can make its money back with Clooney's name attached to it, imagine what something of a higher pedigree can do."

Up in the Air did $1.8 million on it's first day of wide-release. Avatar did $16 million and it's been wide since it opened. How exactly is Up in the Air siphoning off Avatar money, again?

comment #70

DeeZee says ...

Deathtongue: "If ALVIN is supposed to impact AVATAR, shouldn't today's grosses fucking plummet?"

Don't worry. Holmes and Its Complicated will finish that job on Friday.

Gordon: Actually, I said it's a sequel to a CG cartoon which was successful in its own right. If this were Garfield 3, it might be a different story.

Wiggum: Well, I guess 'Goats just had the better marketing.

comment #71

Uncle Milty says ...

Through Tuesday with foreign numbers now added in Avatar is at $329 million.

comment #72

Howlingman says ...

With Wednesday numbers it's up to $381,630,006 worldwide. It better hurry too, b/c once it hits $449,999,999 it can no longer make money, according to some guy on the internet.

comment #73

Gordon27 says ...

"Don't worry. Holmes and Its Complicated will finish that job on Friday."

But the job never got started. 'Avatar' made more money on Wednesday than on Tuesday.

"Actually, I said it's a sequel to a CG cartoon which was successful in its own right."

It's funny how what you remember saying is never the actual thing you said, but some variation on what you said that sounds a bit more reasonable.

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comment #76

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