comment #1

Gordon27 says ...

It's possible, but remember that the weekend before Christmas skews opening weekends a bit; people have long vacations coming up and aren't neccessarily going to rush out to see 'Avatar' immediately when they've got shopping and such to do. The people who are going to immediately rush out to see it are the geeks (I'm pushing for the midnight show tonight, in fact), so it might wind up a bit higher, you may be right, but I'm thinking it opens in the low 60's, and then everybody says "Wow, it really under-performed", and then it keeps going with small drops through the New Year, balancing out the money it didn't make in its opening weekend.

Just my theory, though. I'm really curious to see DZ's opening weekend prediction.

comment #2

DeeZee says ...

Jeff: First choice isn't as important as strong WOM from audiences for at least the next two months. And since is the male-centric answer to Titanic, that probably won't happen. And I think it damn well does need to score that big, just to insure that there's enough demand to off-set a second-weekend drop to 'Holmes.

Gordon: It's not going to keep going that long. That Chipmunk thing and "It's Complicated" will siphon off the holiday crowds, while Holmes will attract the non-geeks, who, even if they like Avatar, tend to only watch these things once first weekend. And people are usually too drunk to see shit after the New Year, which is on a Friday for 2010, thus killing that weekend's box office. Then Eli will probably put the final nail in Avatar's coffin.

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http://www.themoviebox.net/movies/2010/Shrek-Forever-After/trailer.php

comment #3

Mark says ...

What's changed in the short time since I am Legend is that the midnight showing has become exponentially bigger. The previous record is crushed every couple of months. Now it might not t add $26M to its Friday total like New Moon brought in, but it for sure will overwhelm whatever I am Legend did, which i think did somewhere in the mid to single digits.

I put odds that it does beat I Am Legend this weekend. Long term, i put the whole trilogy at $4B WW.

comment #4

DeeZee says ...

Mark: I Am Legend had Will Smith. And there's not going to *be* an Avatar trilogy, because it's going to bomb with the first film.

comment #5

Flash Gordon says ...

DeeZee says Avatar will bomb. That means it will gross $875 million worldwide and he'll call it a bomb because it cost so much. Yawn.

comment #6

Markj74 says ...

DeeZee, I saw Avatar last night. There is NO WAY this is going to bomb. NO WAY.

comment #7

DeeZee says ...

Flash: Please. It'll be lucky if it makes its money back with an extended run into June.

mark: It is. Deal with it. The demand isn't there, and the most FOX can do is rig a slightly higher opening weekend than they'd normally get for a winter tentpole. [Like that Keanu movie last year. If that thing did so horribly with a big name attached to it, Avatar's going to be in for a world of hurt.]

comment #8

dean_venture says ...

Titanic was about about a boat and people like to watch travel-themed movies over the holidays. "I Am Legend" was set in New York so it got the post-9/11 New York sympathy audience. Avatar's audience skews older and older people are more likely to injure themselves slipping on ice in wintry movie theater parking lots, further limiting repeat viewing. Plus, in these difficult economic times, more people will have put off their Christmas shopping until late December, leaving less free time for movies. Moreover, the winter solstice will have come and gone after Avatar's opening weekend, and once the days start getting longer people won't want to go to the movies as much.

comment #9

Jonathan Spuij says ...

However strange it may be Avatar will surge with magnificent word of mouth. I think a very small second weekend drop will be the biggest achievement in terms of Box Office figures. It'll be huge around the world.

BTW anyone else notice how 2012 raked a mere 150 mln at the domestic bo but nearly 600 mln worldwide?

comment #10

DeeZee says ...

Jonathan: Cusack's no Will Smith, in terms of box-office power.

comment #11

Mark says ...

Bet. If it clears $77M by Monday then for one week you must prefix every post of links with "First, i was dead wrong about Avatar, and my opinion carries absolutely no weight here, but..."

comment #12

Gordon27 says ...

Jeff/somebody - what does "First Choice Open and Rel." mean?

comment #13

DeeZee says ...

Mark: Why would I be wrong about it having a big opening and still bombing afterwards?

comment #14

Gordon27 says ...

DZ, can you point to a single post prior to that where you ever said it would have a big opening?

comment #15

Gordon27 says ...

Another question, when you "correctly predicted" that Grindhouse would fail (from what you've said, that was the last time you were correct), were you this mealy-mouthed about it? Had you backslid by a full 100% of your prediction by the time the movie came out, as you just did?

comment #16

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: Did I say it was going to have a small opening? No, I just said small take. And actually, Grindhouse did worse than my prediction.

comment #17

Gordon27 says ...

"Did I say it was going to have a small opening?"

Well, saying it would barely outgross 'Speed Racer', the logical assumption is that it would open small, yes.

Furthermore, if it does $77mil US, as cited above, then it would have defeated your absolute maximum worldwide by Monday, Tuesday at the latest, so you would then be completely wrong, yes.

"And actually, Grindhouse did worse than my prediction."

Ah, that makes sense; your prediction itself was shit, but it was "right" in your binary world, where you're really just predicting "flop" or "success" [actually, you've never once predicted a movie would be a success, and never acknowledged that one was] and making a number up completely out of your head.

That seems about right, yeah.

comment #18

Gordon27 says ...

"Did I say it was going to have a small opening? No, I just said small take."

The point is, just above this, you just said that you've been saying it would have a big opening:

"Why would I be wrong about it having a big opening"

That's a lie. You never said that.

comment #19

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "Furthermore, if it does $77mil US, as cited above, then it would have defeated your absolute maximum worldwide by Monday, Tuesday at the latest, so you would then be completely wrong, yes."

Not really, because you're not factoring in the X-mas holiday rush and related weekend in which Holmes gets released.

As for Grindhouse, my prediction was more generous, given QT's so-called appeal, and it still bombed.

Moving on to the opening, I never said it wasn't going to be big or anything of that sort, just that it was going to bomb. And that was my whole point.
The thing still has to surpass my minimum ceiling and your prediction to be a success, which is my other point, since it won't make it there.

comment #20

Anomaly says ...

Awesome - you ze man Jeff

I think 80 is completely doable with those (ahem) titanic numbers.

comment #21

Mark says ...

Name your number. what would success be? $700M WW in 6 weeks and you must prefix your posts? Given that they can make two sequels for the price of the first one, i'd say $700M guarantees a trilogy. so let's talk again in 6 weeks.

comment #22

DeeZee says ...

Mark: It won't make $700 million, because it's too damned over-priced, and geek-centric. But as for it being a real hit, it'd probably have to beat, or come close to TDK's numbers. Seven hundred million is just recouping the costs and guaranteeing everyone involved gets paid for their work.

comment #23

Wiggumx says ...

So, DeeZee, it only has to be a bomb in your eyes, and you win? And for it not to be a bomb, it has to clear over a billion worldwide and be one of the highest grossing films of all time?

You have somehow become more of a complete fucking idiot. And I truly thought that was not possible.

comment #24

Gordon27 says ...

"Not really, because you're not factoring in the X-mas holiday rush and related weekend in which Holmes gets released."

Right, so, you're just not even reading what I said? $77mil US = your prediction is wrong by Tuesday (at the latest), well before the "holiday rush" (don't know what that means) or the following weekend.

"Moving on to the opening, I never said it wasn't going to be big or anything of that sort, just that it was going to bomb."

Well, you said a bit more than that; you put a specific number on it. Now, sure, you have amended that number three times, and it's now double your initial prediction, and you'll still be wrong within about 10 days of release.

Which brings up another stupid point you made, which was that 'Crazy At Heart' and 'A Single Man' would do better than $20mil each and have a serious impact on 'Avatar's box office.

"The thing still has to surpass my minimum ceiling and your prediction to be a success, which is my other point, since it won't make it there."

Wait, now you're saying that $200 mill is just your minimum ceiling? You can't even wait to see the first grosses and you're backing off again! Man, you have no balls.

As for me, I gave no ceiling prediction. I said the movie will easily make $200 mil WW in two weeks because I was disproving a different stupid point you were making. And I don't think anybody here has been arguing that $200 mil WW makes it a hit; it just makes you completely wrong in your prediction that it would do 'Speed Racer' business.

"Seven hundred million is just recouping the costs and guaranteeing everyone involved gets paid for their work."

Yep, that's right, if only they hadn't made everybody sign those pesky "We will only pay you if this movie clears $700 million" clauses! Damn Hollywood.

Still, it's fun to see a sneak preview on all the shit you'll be saying in between the time when it surpasses your highest expectations and the time when it gets close to $700 mil, at which point I'm sure you'll say, "They still haven't made any money because it doesn't appeal to women."

comment #25

DeeZee says ...

Gordon: "Right, so, you're just not even reading what I said? $77mil US = your prediction is wrong by Tuesday (at the latest), well before the "holiday rush" (don't know what that means)"

Holiday rush=people shopping for holiday stuff at the last minute, thus making it impossible for it to top $100 million by Tuesday.

"and it's now double your initial prediction, and you'll still be wrong within about 10 days of release."

Nope, but nice try, anyway.

"Which brings up another stupid point you made, which was that 'Crazy At Heart' and 'A Single Man' would do better than $20mil each and have a serious impact on 'Avatar's box office."

I didn't say they'd make $20 million. Now you're just making shit up. I said they would siphon off vital demos key to Avatar's success.

"Wait, now you're saying that $200 mill is just your minimum ceiling? You can't even wait to see the first grosses and you're backing off again! Man, you have no balls."

No, my minimum ceiling is $140 mil.

"I said the movie will easily make $200 mil WW in two weeks because I was disproving a different stupid point you were making."

Except it won't, because the demand isn't there.

"it just makes you completely wrong in your prediction that it would do 'Speed Racer' business."

I said slightly better than Speed Racer.

"Yep, that's right, if only they hadn't made everybody sign those pesky "We will only pay you if this movie clears $700 million" clauses!"

It doesn't make a profit until it passes $500 million, and it needs to make a big profit, or it's a wash.

comment #26

Gordon27 says ...

"Holiday rush=people shopping for holiday stuff at the last minute"

The given of the statement that you're arguing with is that it gets $77mil opening weekend. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but the point is that if that happens, then you're wrong. You can't argue against why the given won't happen, you're missing the point.

"It doesn't make a profit until it passes $500 million, and it needs to make a big profit, or it's a wash. "

I think that's actually about right, $500 mil. The thing is, when it hits $500 mil, it's absolutely in no way a wash and guarantees sequels. You figure that it got $30-40mil from New Zealand after production was gone in tax rebates, you figure it got a whole shitton from McDonalds and the other merchandising, and you figure it pre-sold television rights based on Cameron's name. In other words, once it gets $500 in box office, the ancillaries are all guaranteed to make profit even if it stops dead at $500.

And then the sequels will be significantly cheaper to produce, while there is a trend lately for sequels to do better, after the audience has been introduced to the world.

comment #27

Gordon27 says ...

"I didn't say they'd make $20 million. Now you're just making shit up."

Here's a link to the thread; first you say that they will siphon off key demos (#18), and then, when I say "'A Single Man' ... certainly won't gross $20 million. And the same with 'Crazy Heart'" (#48), you repeatedly argue with me that they can and will. You cite 'Walk the Line' as the potential 'Crazy Heart' has to do. You're stupid and you're a liar.

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2009/11/avatar_tracking.php

comment #28

Gordon27 says ...

And, for that matter, if you *didn't* mean that it would gross more than $20 million when you were arguing that it would... how, exactly, is a movie that doesn't gross $20 mil going to have any serious impact on 'Avatar', one way or another? I asked you this when you "proved" mathematically that Avatar needed women, and women = the difference between 'Predator' and 'Starship Troopers' (that difference being $20 mil), why do you think that $20 mil more or less is the difference between this movie being a flop or a hit? That seems pretty stupid to me; if it's a flop, $20mil won't save it, and if it's a hit, $20 mil won't matter.

comment #29

DeeZee says ...

"The given of the statement that you're arguing with is that it gets $77mil opening weekend. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but the point is that if that happens, then you're wrong."

How am I wrong? That's its ceiling, and still won't surpass my take.

"You figure that it got $30-40mil from New Zealand after production was gone in tax rebates, you figure it got a whole shitton from McDonalds and the other merchandising, and you figure it pre-sold television rights based on Cameron's name. In other words, once it gets $500 in box office, the ancillaries are all guaranteed to make profit even if it stops dead at $500."

Those McDonalds deals tend to be a split revenue type of thing meant to sell the movie more than boost ancillary sales. And subsidies just end up being written off more than contributing to the pot.

"And then the sequels will be significantly cheaper to produce, "

There are no sequels happening. This is a bomb.

"And the same with 'Crazy Heart'" (#48), you repeatedly argue with me that they can and will"

I said it can make that money, not that it will.

"how, exactly, is a movie that doesn't gross $20 mil going to have any serious impact on 'Avatar', one way or another?"

Because it attracts audiences who might normally see Avatar?

"That seems pretty stupid to me; if it's a flop, $20mil won't save it,"

If it's a flop, it'll mean all the difference between at least breaking even or killing the studio's bottom line for the next quarter.

comment #30

Gordon27 says ...

The fact that this movie is already as huge as it is is really hurting your brain, huh? It's really fun to watch, please continue.

"How am I wrong? That's its ceiling, and still won't surpass my take."

Wow. You genuinely believe a movie could do $77mil domestic in the opening weekend and still not pass $130 mil worldwide? So, math is another thing you don't understand at all?

"I said it can make that money, not that it will. "

This is absurdly contrarian, even for you. First I say it won't make money, so you say it will. Then I say you said it would make money, and you say it won't and you never said that. Do you understand that nobody respects you because you can't maintain a consistent position? You just argue shit that you don't even believe.

"If it's a flop, it'll mean all the difference between at least breaking even or killing the studio's bottom line for the next quarter."

Wow. Okay, so you also really believe that $20 million will be the difference between it being a flop and breaking even?? Which means you've apparently now revised your estimate to a ceiling of $480million (since we previously agreed $500 mil is a reasonable breakeven point).

Try to figure out what points you want to make before talking.

comment #31

doublexjohn says ...

Had you backslid by a full 100% of your prediction by the time the movie came out, as you just did?

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comment #32

atish says ...

However strange it may be Avatar will surge with magnificent word of mouth. I think a very small second weekend drop will be the biggest achievement in terms of Box Office figures. It'll be huge around the world.

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comment #33

atish says ...

It's possible, but remember that the weekend before Christmas skews opening weekends a bit; people have long vacations coming up and aren't neccessarily going to rush out to see 'Avatar' immediately when they've got shopping and such to do. The people who are going to immediately rush out to see it are the geeks (I'm pushing for the midnight show tonight, in fact), so it might wind up a bit higher, you may be right, but I'm thinking it opens in the low 60's, and then everybody says "Wow, it really under-performed", and then it keeps going with small drops through the New Year, balancing out the money it didn't make in its opening weekend.
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comment #34

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comment #35

atish says ...

Furthermore, if it does $77mil US, as cited above, then it would have defeated your absolute maximum worldwide by Monday, Tuesday at the latest, so you would then be completely wrong, yes.
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comment #36

badpete says ...

The fact that this movie is already as huge as it is is really hurting your brain, huh? It's really fun to watch, please continue.

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comment #37

atish says ...

Plus, in these difficult economic times, more people will have put off their Christmas shopping until late December, leaving less free time for movies.
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comment #38

doublexjohn says ...

Are you serious about this one?

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comment #39

atish says ...

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comment #40

badpete says ...

The fact that this movie is already as huge as it is is really hurting your brain, huh? It's really fun to watch, please continue.

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comment #41

pamelazz says ...

The "real lifer" moments in the movie felt very When Harry Met Sallyish and took me out of the movie each and every time. If this film wins Best Picture, it will be considered one of those "What were they thinking?" awards a few years from now. voip free calls

comment #42

pamelazz says ...

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comment #43

badpete says ...

Gordon: "Right, so, you're just not even reading what I said? $77mil US = your prediction is wrong by Tuesday (at the latest), well before the "holiday rush" (don't know what that means)"

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comment #44

sara says ...

Avatar is a real fun. those who are not interested in fun its better not to see it!
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