Close To Launching
I've tapped out a summary of the films I'm intending to put into the 2010 Oscar Balloon but without acting nominations, which no one ever knows anything about until they happen. Here's how the list looks as we speak -- suggestions/critiques are welcome. Nearly 60 films of some apparent distinction, or so it would appear.
BEST PICTURE
True Grit (Paramount, d: Joel and Ethan Coen; Inception (Warner Bros.), d: Chris Nolan; Fair Game (Zucker/Participant), d: Doug Liman; The Conspirator (Wildwood), d: Robert Redford; The Social Network (Sony/Columbia), d: David Fincher; Hereafter (Warner Bros.), d: Clint Eastwood; Green Zone (Universal), d: Paul Greengrass; Biutiful (Focus Features), d: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu; How Do You Know? (Sony/Columbia), d: James L. Brooks; Tree of Life (Apparition), d: Terrence Malick; The American (Focus Features), d: Anton Corbijn; Black Swan (distributor), d: Darren Aronofsky; The Way Back (Paramount), d: Peter Weir; London Boulevard (distributor), d: William Monahan; The Descendants (distributor), d: Alexander Payne; Somewhere (distributor), d: Sofia Coppola; Betty Ann Waters (Fox Searchlight), d: Tony Goldwyn, Oliver Stone's Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps. (19)
HIGH INTRIGUE / ELITE POPCORN
Eat Pray Love (distributor), d: Ryan Murphy; Rum Diary (distributor), d: Bruce Robinson; Phillip Noyce's Salt; The Expendables (Lionsgate); Greenberg (Focus Features), d: Noah Baumbach; You Will Meet A Tall Dark Stranger (distributor), d: Woody Allen; David Gordon Green's Your Highness (Danny McBride, James Franco, Natalie Portman, Zooey Deschanel, etc.); Tony Scott's Unstoppable; Todd Phillips' Due Date w/ Robert Downey Jr. and Zach Galifianakis, Michelle Monaghan, Jamie Foxx; Rabbit Hole (Fox Searchlight), d: John Cameron Mitchell; Lee Unkrich's Toy Story 3; Jon Favreau's Iron Man 2, Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland, Ridley Scott's Maximus Hood, Matthew Vaughn's Kick-Ass, Aaron Schneider's Get Low; Mark Romanek's Never Let Me Go (Keira Knightley, Carey Mulligan, Andrew Garfield); Love and Other Drugs (distributor), d: TKTKTK; Mother and Child (distributor), d: Rodrigo Garcia; Rowan Joffe's Brighton Rock (distributor, w/Sam Riley); Roger Michel's Morning Glory (Paramount, w/ Harrison Ford); Jim Loach's Oranges and Sunshine (w/ Emily Watson); Tom Hooper's King's Speech (w/ Helena Bonham Carter). (28)
PLUS: Buried; Blue Valentine; Please Give; Triage, Untitled Mike Leigh project. (5)
PLUS: The Special Relationship (d: Richard Loncraine), Cast: Dennis Quaid, Michael Sheen, Hope Davis, Helen McCory; The Town (d: Ben Affleck) -- Ben Affleck, Rebecca Hall, Jon Hamm, Jeremy Renner, Chris Cooper; 3 Backyards (d: Eric Mendelsohn) -- Embeth Davidtz, Edie Falco, Elias Koteas, Rachel Resheff, Kathryn Erbe; Tamara Drewe (d: Stephen Frears) -- Gemma Arterton, Dominic Cooper, Roger Allam, Luke Evans, Bill Camp; The Debt (d: John Madden) -- Sam Worthington, Helen Mirren, Ciaran Hinds, Tom Wilkinson, Martin Csokas; Burlesque (d: Steve Antin) -- Cher, Christina Aguilera, Stanley Tucci, Kristen Bell, Alan Cumming. (6)
Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 5, 2010 at 10:43 AM
comment #1
CMed1
says ...
Like the "Blah-dee-blah" touch.
Posted by CMed1
at February 5, 2010 11:10 AM
comment #2
Murph
says ...
I think you need to put The Kids Are Alright by Lisa Cholodenko in there somewhere. Focus Features is planning to give this a push for the 2011 Oscars -- Screenplay and at least one Best Actress (Bening or Moore) the other may be bumped to Supporting.
Posted by Murph
at February 5, 2010 11:20 AM
comment #3
Colin
says ...
True Grit is being released Christmas Day '10.
And please get Kick-Ass off there.
Posted by Colin
at February 5, 2010 11:24 AM
comment #4
Gordon27
says ...
Since Jeff isn't going to update this list until next year's nominations are announced, he has to be careful what he predicts...
Posted by Gordon27
at February 5, 2010 11:32 AM
comment #5
Muscle McGurk
says ...
Doug Liman is remaking the Cindy Crawford movie?
Posted by Muscle McGurk
at February 5, 2010 11:42 AM
comment #6
googs
says ...
@ Colin
All early reviews for Kick-Ass have been overwhelmingly positive. It's gonna be a hit and Lionsgate knows it.
Posted by googs
at February 5, 2010 11:44 AM
comment #7
Colin
says ...
I saw a screening in Atlanta and I know that the film sucks.
Why the hell is it on the Oscar Balloon? Especially considering how Wells trashed The Dark Knight and the Spiderman flicks.
Posted by Colin
at February 5, 2010 11:49 AM
comment #8
PastePotPete
says ...
I think Wall Street 2 could be moved to the Best Picture category, at least until it's released. It has the potential to tap a nerve in the culture, and with 10 nominees that can be enough.
Posted by PastePotPete
at February 5, 2010 11:56 AM
comment #9
The Winchester
says ...
Bravo on Expendables on there. No love for Scott Pilgrim Vs The World? I know you're not the biggest Cera fan, but I think Edgar Wright trumps all in that fight.
Posted by The Winchester
at February 5, 2010 12:04 PM
comment #10
Rich S.
says ...
Funny how much like sports the Oscars are in this respect. They haven't even played the Super Bowl yet, and some sites are already posting their "power polls" for next year's NFL season.
Posted by Rich S.
at February 5, 2010 12:09 PM
comment #11
The InSneider
says ...
Whoa, Colin! I agree with the removal of Kick-Ass from the Oscar Bubble. Not that kind of movie. But saying Kick-Ass "sucks" is a lie. I don't even care that it's a personal opinion of yours. It's a flat-out lie. You would have to be from another planet or something to think that Kick-Ass sucks. Kick-Ass is amazing. It's awesome. It's fucking fantastic. And you sir, are capital-C Crazy.
Posted by The InSneider
at February 5, 2010 12:23 PM
comment #12
jse33
says ...
I was hoping Blood Meridian from Todd Field would be in production to make a 2010 release, but looks like it's not even started yet and will now drop in 2011.
Posted by jse33
at February 5, 2010 12:43 PM
comment #13
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
Michel Cera isn't just over -- he's petrified wood.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at February 5, 2010 12:56 PM
comment #14
The Winchester
says ...
I have faith in Edgar Wright.
Posted by The Winchester
at February 5, 2010 1:00 PM
comment #15
Jeffrey Wells
says ...
Kick Ass is listed under HIGH INTRIGUE / ELITE POPCORN -- it's not Best Picture material.
Posted by Jeffrey Wells
at February 5, 2010 1:00 PM
comment #16
btwnproductions
says ...
Eastwood's looks more "Elite Popcorn" to me.
Posted by btwnproductions
at February 5, 2010 1:22 PM
comment #17
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
This is a little bit silly. Especially when -- as Gordon says -- you didn't even update your list of this year's predicted nominees for several months -- let alone right before they were announced.
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at February 5, 2010 1:49 PM
comment #18
Tommy Udo
says ...
Don't believe I saw these on the list so how about Van Sant's RESTLESS, O' Russell's THE FIGHTER, and Jodie Foster's THE BEAVER (probably the least of the three)?
Posted by Tommy Udo
at February 5, 2010 1:53 PM
comment #19
Sams
says ...
I think there may be quite a bit of movement between the Best Picture and High Intrigue / Elite Popcorn categories. My first bet is Green Zone, which looks like Bourne in Iraq to me.
Posted by Sams
at February 5, 2010 2:00 PM
comment #20
Colin
says ...
@InSchneider
Look I saw it, I didn't like it. It felt like a mash-up of Superhero Movie with the word c_nt. Really really juvenile.
Don't presume to tell me what kind of film I'm allowed to like.
Posted by Colin
at February 5, 2010 2:08 PM
comment #21
Mcflyboy
says ...
Ricky Gervais and Stephen Merchant's Cemetary Junction. Never count out those two.
Damon's also got George Nolfi's Adjustment Bureau, based on a Phillip K Dick story.
I liked the script for Robert Schwentke's Red and it has a helluva cast. Could be fun.
Posted by Mcflyboy
at February 5, 2010 3:51 PM
comment #22
lazarus
says ...
Let me get this straight: A David Fincher film about Facebook has a better shot than a Martin Scorsese period thriller with that all-star cast?
No fucking way.
Posted by lazarus
at February 5, 2010 4:25 PM
comment #23
Ray DeRousse
says ...
Didn't we make this same mistake with Eastwood last year? How 'bout we take a "wait and see" attitude with his next film?
Posted by Ray DeRousse
at February 5, 2010 5:37 PM
comment #24
Bilge
says ...
TRUE GRIT is still in location scout and casting stage. I'm a little suspicious of whether it gets released this year. The Coens don't seem like the types to rush such an important film.
As excited as I am for TREE OF LIFE, Terrence Malick movies tend to be pretty divisive and usually don't make for very good Oscar bait.
Also, I will eat every single pair of pants I own if WALL STREET 2 is nominated for a Best Picture Oscar. If Michael Cera is petrified wood, Oliver Stone is last year's sawdust.
Posted by Bilge
at February 5, 2010 7:01 PM
comment #25
BaxterPeanut
says ...
"Larry Crowne" d. by Tom Hanks?
Posted by BaxterPeanut
at February 5, 2010 8:08 PM
comment #26
fmc7979
says ...
Jeffrey Wells, what about Ed Zwick's "Love And Other Drugs" ? I hear the script is a great read (it was on the "Blacklst") . It is like "Thank You For Smoking" with cutthroat pharmaceutical reps added with the appeal of "Jerry Maguire". The cast is remarkable : Jake Gyllenhaal, Anne Hathaway, Judy Greer, Hank Azaria, Oliver Platt, George Segal, and Jill Clayburgh. This film is being released next November for Oscar consideration.
Posted by fmc7979
at February 5, 2010 8:52 PM
comment #27
ivory
says ...
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Posted by ivory
at February 5, 2010 9:08 PM
comment #28
austin111
says ...
Ed Zwick is generally speaking on Well's shit list. Shutter Island doesn't have a chance in hell of making it to the oscars this year. Nice try, though.
Posted by austin111
at February 5, 2010 9:12 PM
comment #29
ZayTonday
says ...
WEE AHH DOOLEY APPOINTED FEDUHRAL MAAHSHALS
All jokes aside, Inception will most likely deserve the Best Pic Oscar but won't even get nominated.
Posted by ZayTonday
at February 5, 2010 10:26 PM
comment #30
ZayTonday
says ...
Oh yeah, and a Malick movie getting an Oscar?
lololololol It'll get shat upon for simply being a Malick movie with its poetic VOs while you watch the grass blow and the water ripple.
Posted by ZayTonday
at February 5, 2010 10:28 PM
comment #31
worrywort
says ...
Because Animated Features are now considered Best Picture material, try these on for size.
- THE ILLUSIONIST written by Jacques Tati and directed by Sylvain Chomet
- THE CONGRESS directed by WALTZ WITH BASHIR's Ari Folman
- TALE OF THE BAMBOO CUTTER from Studio Ghibli's Isao Takahata (GRAVE OF THE FIREFLIES)
- A TOWN CALLED PANIC
On the non-animated spectrum
MIRAL - dir. Julian Schnabel
Posted by worrywort
at February 5, 2010 10:52 PM
comment #32
Noiresque
says ...
Julian Schnabel's [b]Miral[/b], with Willem Dafoe, Alexander Siddig, Hiam Abbass, Freida Pinto
Julie Taymor's [b]The Tempest[/b] with Helen Mirrenm Djimon Hounsou, Ben Whishaw, Chris Cooper, Alan Cumming, David Strathairn
Posted by Noiresque
at February 5, 2010 11:23 PM
comment #33
markj
says ...
I guess it's a sign i'm no longer in my 20s that Kick-Ass doesn't interest me at all. Is it just me or do all the blockbuster directors post-Fincher have no clue about what they're doing with the camera?
Posted by markj
at February 6, 2010 12:32 AM
comment #34
ZayTonday
says ...
Markj: Christopher Nolan made his debut after Fincher made his and I'd say that he's doing a great job.
Posted by ZayTonday
at February 6, 2010 5:53 AM
comment #35
Guy Lodge
says ...
The new Mike Leigh project is no longer untitled, by the way: he recently announced that it's called "Another Year."
Posted by Guy Lodge
at February 6, 2010 6:25 AM
comment #36
hunterd
says ...
No way does Doug Liman get an oscar nod in 2010.
Posted by hunterd
at February 6, 2010 9:32 AM
comment #37
hunterd
says ...
Also, where is Todd Solondz's "Life During Wartime" surely that's deserving of at least award consideration.
Posted by hunterd
at February 6, 2010 9:38 AM
comment #38
Gordon27
says ...
Is Fincher really a blockbuster director?
Posted by Gordon27
at February 6, 2010 1:25 PM
comment #39
CitizenKanedforChewingGum
says ...
It's really hard to justify Fincher as a "blockbuster" director. Benjamin Button cost pretty close to "tentpole-type" money, but you could probably argue all day about whether it was truly a blockbuster, or just one of those high-profile end-of-the-year releases intended to gain Oscar nomations. At the end of the end of the day, I think the truth lies somewhere in between; it's a hybrid.
Before that, though, I think you'd have to go all the way back to Alien 3 to find a movie that really qualifies. And Fincher has pretty much disowned that (although -- relatively speaking -- for a third film in a cycle I personally found it to be fairly interesting).
Posted by CitizenKanedforChewingGum
at February 6, 2010 1:59 PM
comment #40
citizenmilton
says ...
@Colin-
Are you a comics/sf hater in general? If you're at this site you obviously have a good barometer for film in general. Take Jeffrey, who has a deep contempt (that many would agree with) for the comicbook/sf/genre, but, when a film works, Jeffrey has the integrity to acknowledge (see: Iron Man, Twilight, and his anticipating-Avatar-as-debacle phase).
Your neg on the flick is the first I've *ever* seen online; pre-film buzz on the 'net is always highly unreliable, but, in this case, the smoke is being accompanied by some pretty intense heat around other projects by the comic writer and the film's director. So.... whereas you should be given the benefit of the doubt in this kind of situation, it'd help to know if you went in hopeful or sharpening a knife.
Posted by citizenmilton
at February 7, 2010 1:58 AM
comment #41
Gordon27
says ...
"the smoke is being accompanied by some pretty intense heat around other projects by the comic writer"
It's worth pointing out that Mark Millar is probably the best self-promoter in the comic book business, and really knows how to drum up on-line hype for his work. But he isn't better at it than Kevin Smith; I think it can be argued that the grosses for Kevin Smith's films are the ceiling for how much impact on-line enthusiasm actually translates to in theaters. That's not to say that 'Wanted' won't out-gross 'Cop Out', I just mean that on-line buzz isn't a reliable indicator to translate to the real-world. [Otherwise, 'Iron Man' would've out-grossed 'Transformers'.]
Posted by Gordon27
at February 7, 2010 5:02 AM
comment #42
adorian
says ...
I don't understand your reluctance to put in performances yet. If you are going to have Biutiful, then Javier Bardem's performance should merit attention. The same with Hillary Swank and Betty Ann Waters.
Posted by adorian
at February 7, 2010 7:32 AM