comment #1

Mark says ...

Anyone else think that Brad is a legit dark horse for Best Actor? Guy is definitely out there pushing for it. He got two of the BP nominees funding, and I wouldn't put it past Clooney if he started a whisper campaign for anyone voting for him to vote for Brad instead. Anything to keep the award away from the french.

I'm just saying; seems like this category is ripe for a surprise and money on Brad at 15-1 odds is not a terrible idea.

comment #2

Cerulean says ...

I think Pitt is out but he is trying. Clooney is still the front-runner followed by Dujardin and then third Oldman (British vote).

comment #3

BobbyLupo says ...

I think Pitt has a better shot than Clooney, certainly a better chance than he's being given credit for, but neither one has any real chance against Dujardin. At this point, I'm resigned to Picture, Actor, and even Director, but I really hope something else manages to take at least the screenplay Oscar.

comment #4

LexG says ...

Dujardin is cool, but giving him the OSCAR this prematurely is gonna send him somewhere between Christoph Waltz-ville and Hudsonville.

You just KNOW he's never gonna be in a major American primo role again, ever.

comment #5

eddie mars attacks says ...

Dujardin would make a good Bond villain.

comment #6

LexG says ...

Dujardin would make a good version of that guy who was Herbert Lom's man secretary in the Pink Panther movies.

comment #7

Markj74 says ...

Gary Oldman is going to win. It's a great STORY, 20 years and no nominations. Everybody wants to see him up there. It's going to be a shock result, like the year Adrien Brody won.

comment #8

LexG says ...

Oldman doesn't really do anything actorly in TTSS. I'm all for rewarding him belatedly for TRUE ROMANCE or STATE OF GRACE or CRIMINAL LAW or ROMEO IS BLEEDING or whatever, but in TTSS he DOESN'T DO AAAAAAAANYTHING.

At least Strong beats the fuck out of an Owl.

comment #9

Markj74 says ...

Agreed Lex, just a feeling in my gut that the actors will get sentimental and go for Oldman. And the Oscars have a long history of rewarding somebody belatedly for lesser work (Scorsese springs to mind). His performance is still much more deserving that Clooney, Pitt or Dujardin.

comment #10

BobbyLupo says ...

"Gary Oldman is going to win. It's a great STORY, 20 years and no nominations. Everybody wants to see him up there. It's going to be a shock result, like the year Adrien Brody won."

Nah, the TTSS-related surprise will be Adapted Screenplay.

Wnant to talk great STORY? There will be two memorable moments at the Oscars this year. One will be the West Memphis 3 guys winning for Doc and talking about getting them set free, the other will be TTSS winning and the guy getting up and talking his wife the co-writer who died during production.

comment #11

Raising_Kaned says ...

"You just KNOW he's never gonna be in a major American primo role again, ever."

I guess technically you're right, although I think it's hard to even watch The Artist and think, "wow, this is such a major American primo role!" I mean, it's so obviously a Frenchman playing the part -- and they do so very little to hide this fact -- that it seems especially gimmicky, even for a silent film released in 2012 (which is saying a lot).

"Oldman doesn't really do anything actorly in TTSS."

Depends on how you define "actorly." I think what you mean is "showy" (in which case I'd agree with you). Let's not forget, though, that the Academy occasionally rewards stripped-down performances from actors that are used to hamming it up (Bridges, Robin Williams).

That doesn't happen very often, though, and how often does someone win on their first nomination? I'm just asking. This does seem like the kind of setup that is ripe for an upset, but I'd be pretty shocked if anyone other than Clooney or Dujardin won.

If Gosling were in this race, I think he'd make for a very interesting dark horse (shades of Brody in 2003).

comment #12

Raising_Kaned says ...

Although the fact that Brooks wasn't even nominated at all makes me think most of the voters either hated Drive, or didn't bother watching it (both scenarios seem about equally likely).

For whatever reason, there seems to be a huge disconnect on that movie between the online/critical community, and the "old guard" of Hollywood insiders. As someone who had a pretty split reaction to that flick myself, I find that firm divide rather fascinating.

comment #13

MDOC says ...

The Oscar is 100% Clooney's, nothing to see here, move along.

Did Bobbylupo say "Pitt has a better shot than Clooney"?! The spam-bots here are presenting better statements than that. Have you looked at the odds? Clooney is 2-1.

comment #14

Los Bostonian says ...

The race is wide open and everyone has a shot but Bichir.

comment #15

Chinaski1 says ...

"Have you looked at the odds? Clooney is 2-1. "

Okay, I'm probably going to regret asking this but...

Where do those odds come from? Isn't it other actors in the academy that will decide who wins? I understand everything that goes into creating odds for, say, the Super Bowl. But how are they calculated for something so flukey and subjective?

comment #16

bill weber says ...

"primo American role"

Guys, I hate to tell you, but The Artist is a French movie. Even if it's the first one Lex got tricked into seeing.

comment #17

raygo says ...

Oscar = Primo American Award, supposedly the entree to a long and rewarding career as an AMERICAN movie star ... the best kind to be PERIOD. Won't happen for Dujardin (see: Cottliard, Marrion).

comment #18

raygo says ...

I think Pitt proved himself more than Clooney, but The Descendants has more emotional weight.

comment #19

BobbyLupo-atwork says ...

"Have you looked at the odds? Clooney is 2-1."

I have seen odds, yes. But I put that in context; all the prognosticators and odds-makers this year were absolutely guaranteeing that Albert Brooks would be nominated for Supporting Actor and Spielberg would be nominated for Director.

If people want to declare Clooney the early favorite *again*, that's fine, but I remember when 'Up In The Air' was supposed to win him Best Actor and get a Screenplay win to boot. Neither one happened. 'The Descendants' is gonna be yet another George Clooney movie that gets a bunch of nominations but goes home empty-handed.

comment #20

BobbyLupo-atwork says ...

"Won't happen for Dujardin (see: Cottliard, Marrion). "

Your example would make a LOT more sense if Cotillard hadn't, you know... won the Oscar.

Actually, your example would still be at odds with Colin Firth, Daniel Day-Lewis, Russell Crowe, Anthony Hopkins, Geoffrey Rush, Robert Begnini, Kate Winslet, Helen Mirren, Charlize Theron, Emma Thompson...

And that's just the part about "Americans", not even the part about the Oscar being the capper on a long career.

comment #21

BobbyLupo-atwork says ...

"Where do those odds come from?"

Generally, they come from insular bloggers whispering buzz to each other.

There's one place out there that has a pretty interesting system, where they essentially just set up rules based on the last ten years (ie: "Playing a real person wins 65% of the time, giving an advantage to Streep and Williams over the other three") and then uses some crazy math to put it all together. Even they're wrong once in a while, but I remember they got a lot of attention one year for calling an "upset" -- I think it was 'Crash' over 'Brokeback', which they had at 52-48 or something like that. Anybody know where I'm talking about? I'd be curious to see what they're saying now, though it's early and they always make final adjustments.

comment #22

DiscoNap says ...

Oldman recalling his one meeting with Karla is one of the best moments he's ever had, completely restrained but also devastating and tortured in all the right ways. His performance in general is a great slow-burn. He's kind of Pacino in reverse in many ways, maturing into a very calm on the surface, roiling underneath presence. Tinker is not his best work, but it's a great showcase, and I'd be completely fine with him winning.

comment #23

Raising_Kaned says ...

"He's kind of Pacino in reverse in many ways, maturing into a very calm on the surface, roiling underneath presence."

Wow, that's actually a pretty great description of Oldman's recent acting arc. Still, I'd be absolutely shocked if he didn't have one or two trademark "crazy motherfucker" parts left up his sleeve.

comment #24

DoctorStrange says ...

'Oldman doesn't really do anything actorly in TTSS' LexG.

By 'actorly' you mean showing off and weeping and raging. Oldman's performance was perfect for the character. Subtle, quiet, restrained, regretful, weak even, but with a hidden reserve of intention.

'Actorly'. LOL. You child.