comment #1

Super Soul says ...

I heard he's actually just a janitor who left his work on an Applied Mathematics classroom chalkboard.

comment #2

Jeffrey Wells says ...

Yeah? Well, I talked to him and he doesn't sound like Damon.

comment #3

Edward Havens says ...

So he's basically doing a variation of my Oscar handicaps, which I've been doing since 2003.

comment #4

Jeffrey Wells says ...

Yeah, he's temporarily stolen your thunder with a mathematical spin and a Harvard pedigree.

comment #5

Edward Havens says ...

It's cool. The more the merrier. I'll have all mine done by Friday. And you should be pleased with my data for Best Actress. Not so much on Best Picture, though.

comment #6

Jeffrey Wells says ...

So you've got Davis's back? Obviously you're calling Best Picture for The Artist.

comment #7

Andrea says ...

Giving it to Streep over Davis is so disgusting and tacky so of course that's what the Academy will do.

comment #8

Sasha Stone says ...

I hope not Andrea but I am filled with dread at the possibility. Bad timing for them if so.

comment #9

Edward Havens says ...

Yes, Jeffrey, I have Viola's back. She's got many precedents in her favor over Streep, including fictional character over real person, American over foreigner, SAG win, from a Best Picture nominee and Golden Globe win.

In fact, my numbers will show Streep has the least chance of winning Sunday night.

comment #10

Andrea says ...

Sash! It's nice to finally be on your side for once during a race :)

I absolutely feel in this rather underwhelming field that Davis was the best with Mara who has not shot the only one else that's worthy.

And yes, I also absolutely feel she should win over Streep because she's black. Call me PC all you want. I got 84 years to back me up. The Help grossed more than like all of Harvey Weinstein's forgettable safe plays down the middle he has this year combined and than some. It's BS. And it's going to happen. I don't know why so many of the experts say otherwise. They won't let someone like Viola into the Best Actress club. Not when Streep has her old lady makeup, dementia hallucinations, and British accent laced shouting.

God Damn it, I enjoyed Albert Nobbs better than The Iron Lady. It's like everything I hate about the Oscars combined this decade...Harvey Weinstein, Meryl Streep overacting in an awful movie, and her screeching delusional fans on every blog demanding she win or else Hollywood has it out for her. Wake me from this nightmare!

comment #11

Albert Starling says ...

I really hope Streep wins. Comparing the 2 performances, Streep is in every scene and is typically brilliant throughout. Davis is perfectly fine in a supporting role. Neither film is really any good at all. The Iron Lady focusses on all the wrong part of an interesting person's life, while The Help is a badly written piece of soap opera fluff. If you remove all the other issues and give the Oscar purely on merit, I really think there's no contest. Meryl Streep all the way.

comment #12

Edward Havens says ...

Streep is a great actress. No one is arguing that. But all she is doing in Iron Lady is mimicking quite well an already well-known public figure. Davis had to create a character and make audiences care and sympathize with her, and she succeeded quite well, at least in the eyes of the thousands of women of all races who came to my theatre to see it.

I haven't seen either film myself, but I did play both, and the few who came to see Iron Lady were mainly "meh" about Streep's mimicry, while Davis's character inspired many an impassioned post-showing discussion in the lobby.

And that's why I think Davis FTW.

comment #13

Andrea says ...

The fact that Davis wasn't in every frame and still was better than Bo Streep is one of the top reasons I want her to win. But I thank you for giving away the chief reason Streep win. SHE WAS IN EVERY FRAME!! Shouting, and hallucinating, and shouting, and cut aways! She was acting and acting! It literally hits you in the head! And of course that's the best type of acting!

comment #14

Moviehobbyist says ...

I think the most notable thing about his predictions is the win for The Artist for Cinematography and Tree of Life coming in at a meagre THIRD place. That feels in sync with what I've been feeling about that category as well. Ohhh I don't want to switch there...

comment #15

Raising_Kaned says ...

This is flat-out one of the stupidest ideas ever, and I'll be rooting against almost every one of his "winners" (except the Woodman) come Sunday.

Math has absolutely no place in the arts, and -- moreover -- never should. It's art. Having said that, the Oscars aren't exactly "art" -- and never really were (as nostalgic as some of us tend to wax) -- so what the hell?

comment #16

Raising_Kaned says ...

But -- even still -- I don't think predicting what's going to win a silly award is remotely similar to the idea of, say, building a baseball team, or something. In a game with a strict set of rules, you can at least isolate a player's performance in a number of different areas.

Whereas the presumable reason someone would -- or conversely, would not -- vote for a nominee strike me as almost completely limitless.

comment #17

Edward Havens says ...

Kaned, any cinematographer will tell you you're dead wrong about math having no place in the arts.

comment #18

Sams says ...

One problem I see from a quick glance at his methodology is he is treating all past awards shows equally. But in the case of the acting categories a SAG win for Viola counts for more than a Globes win for Streep. A true mathematical formula would have to be far more rigorous and entail more variables.

comment #19

thevisceral says ...

My predictions will be along later, I just have to finish torturing these accountants.

comment #20

Edward Havens says ...

Actually, Sams, your example is factually incorrect. Only 70.59% of SAG winners for Best Actress have gone on to win the Oscar (12 of 17), while 81.82% of Globe winners for Best Actress from either category have gone on to win the Oscar (27 of the last 33 ceremonies). But from the dozen or so categories I draw from, that is the only advantage Streep has over Davis.

comment #21

Sahib says ...

This is my first time I visit here. I found so many entertaining stuff in your blog, especially its discussion. From the tons of comments on your posts, I guess I am not the only one having all the enjoyment here! Keep up the excellent work

tubal reversal surgery
reversal of tubal ligation

comment #22

Albert Starling says ...

I still don't get it. Viola Davis is a perfectly good actress who gives a perfectly good performance. But that's about it. There's nothing that makes the viewer go wow, what a stunning acting achievement. Taking away any comparisons to Meryl Streep and just looking at Viola Davis' performance on its own merits, I just don't think it's anything special and certainly not worthy of an Oscar. I mean good luck to her and all that, and if she wins good for her, but I just don't get it.

comment #23

Floyd Thursby says ...

"I still don't get it. Viola Davis is a perfectly good actress who gives a perfectly good performance. But that's about it. There's nothing that makes the viewer go wow, what a stunning acting achievement."

You could say the same about 50% of all acting winners, including Firth and Leo last year.

comment #24

Matthew Lucas says ...

I agree with Albert. I like Davis, and I think she should have won for DOUBT in 2008, but it was such a fantastic year for female performances that she wouldn't even make my top 5 this year (where is the love for Yun Jeong-Hie in POETRY?). And it really is a supporting performance. Emma Stone was the lead of THE HELP.

Wanting Davis to win simply because she's black isn't progressive to me, it's reductive. I'm pulling for Streep all the way because I think she gave the strongest performance in the category. Ultra-political correctness is almost as bad as racism in my book. In fact I really don't think it should be brought up in the awards race at all, one way or the other. Why does it matter what color someone is? It's all about the performance. If you think Davis gave the best performance, great. But why bring race into it? That's it's own special brand of racism to me.

comment #25

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Ben is a college freshman?

I dunno, Ben. How about getting a life? You're only a college freshman once. Do you want to spend it doing what a college freshman SHOULD be doing? Or do you want to spend it doing math equations to see how many awards Meryl Streep will win? What a horrific existence.

comment #26

Matthew Lucas says ...

Also, while I appreciate what Zauzmer is doing here, the problem with going strictly by statistics is always going to be that it leaves no room for intuition and instinct. There are so many variables in the race that it's impossible to put it all into an equation. I can assure that the Oscar voters aren't thinking in terms of statistics - they're going with their hearts.

I still think Davis is going to take Best Actress. THE HELP clearly had more of an impact on voters than THE IRON LADY (even though I think IRON LADY is a better film, but I'm in the minority on that one).

"Ain't you tired?" That scene alone pretty much sealed the Oscar deal right there.

comment #27

Matthew Lucas says ...

I think Ben should do whatever makes him happy. If that means studying Oscar statistic algorithms, so be it. It's better than going out and getting wasted like most of his peers are probably doing.

comment #28

Glenn Kenny says ...

"By a nosehair"? I get it! Nosehair!

And Gabe, love you, man, but let's go to the pot-calling-kettle board about those "get a life" comments. Oy!

comment #29

evelyn garver says ...

I know nothing about this kid from Harvard;however, if my memory is correct, wunderkind political forecaster Nate Silver tried this a while back and was not entirely sucessful. I would still go with Viola. Her film is far stronger than Streep's.

comment #30

Ghost072 says ...

Yeah, Gabe, I'm sure Zuckerberg is really pissed he wasted all his time as a freshman working on that stupid Facebook thing. Get a life, Mark!

comment #31

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Yeah, there's a fucking world of difference between Zuckerberg building a social network database and this dude shirking a social life so he can crunch the numbers on Viola Davis.

Were none of you college freshmen? That's the primo time in your life, man. If you're not making full use of your social life, then I assume you'd be doing something hugely significant. Oscar forecasting? Yeah, unless he makes a million dollars, that's never going to be a substitute for being a Harvard freshman with a full social life.

In twenty years, people will BARELY remember what won Oscars this year. Do you think they'll know anything about some kid who made a website to break the system down into numbers?

Clearly the kids got smarts. If only he applied it to something that wasn't a complete waste of fucking time. "No guys, can't attend that sorority party, I have to stay home and plug the Best Costume results in my computer!"

Glenn, don't be a dick.

comment #32

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

"If that means studying Oscar statistic algorithms, so be it. It's better than going out and getting wasted like most of his peers are probably doing."

No it fucking isn't. What a horrible way to live life.

comment #33

Matthew Lucas says ...

I don't see why it matters what he spends his free time on as long as it's something that makes him happy and means something to him. It's not like its World of Warcraft.

And there are few bigger wastes of time than college parties.

comment #34

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Matthew, college parties are probably the reasons why half the posters on Hollywood-Elsewhere were BORN.

comment #35

DiscoNap says ...

Gabe, if this kid wants to be the Nate Silver of the Oscars, I'm pretty sure it's not in his nature to have all the Natty Light nights that you're so glad you did. More power to him.

comment #36

Eloi Wrath says ...

Gabe: He's obviously got people's attention with his Oscar prediction system, and that might lead to other opportunities down the road. Who knew that Facebook would become such a huge hit when Zuckerberg first started it? Friendster and MySpace already existed - I'm sure there were plenty of people wondering why he was wasting his time building another social network.

And how do you know he isn't partying? Most of the academically rigorous schools don't exactly have a thriving party scene during the week anyway. Maybe he goes out on Saturday night, gets wasted and scores a Harvard chick, then works on his Oscar site while he recovers from a hangover the next day.

I know you're the self-styled Don Juan of HE, but I don't know why you're so concerned about this kid's social life.

comment #37

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Oops, didn't realize you guys were all his friends.
Sorry to advocate "having a good time." I know some of you guys positively HATE that.

To this I ask, and this is the question I would have approached our Boy Wonder with as well: why do we need another Oscar prognosticator? I'm pretty sure we have more than enough already. It feels like more people talk about the Oscars than they do the actual movies.

comment #38

Robin Colcord says ...

Gabe, give us all a goddamn break. Yeah, I bet you were a regular Chuck Zito in college. Bet you were just mowing down trim and obliterating keggers with that whole Corsican Samm Levine look you got going.

My money's on you spending most nights watching My Giant crushing like 900 Diet Cokes.

WHO THE FUCK DO YOU THINK YOU'RE KIDDING?

comment #39

Eloi Wrath says ...

"Corsican Samm Levine"

I LOLed.

If you Google the kid you can see he's pretty much a math genius. He probably tossed this website off in about thirty minutes.

If Gabe was Chuckie in Good Will Hunting, he'd be encouraging Will to stay as a construction worker and pound Narragansett.

comment #40

Super Soul says ...

This whole thing has gotten bigger than Ben. Now he's a damn symbol.

comment #41

Ghost072 says ...

Gabe, you're making a lot of assumptions about this kid, and then turning them into judgements. I like having a good time as much as anyone, but the point is, we don't really know what this kid does besides this and - here's a thought - maybe this kind of thing IS a good time to him. Not everyone is wired the same and saying his life is sad because you assume he isn't out chasing tail every goddamn minute of his free time is just silly. For all we know he's doing lines of coke off strippers asses while he codes this thing. Probably not, but hey, you never know.

comment #42

DiscoNap says ...

"If Gabe was Chuckie in Good Will Hunting, he'd be encouraging Will to stay as a construction worker and pound Narragansett."

Game, set, match.

comment #43

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Hey, you guys should compare this kid to Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting again. It was SO ACCURATE the first time.

I didn't realize me being nostalgic for the fun I had when I was 18 would make people so bitter about their miserable college years. A thousand apologies.

comment #44

Eloi Wrath says ...

"I didn't realize me being nostalgic for the fun I had when I was 18 would make people so bitter about their miserable college years. A thousand apologies."

Who's being bitter on this thread apart from you? You're the one coming off like some resentful adult longing to vicariously relive his college experience because it sucked the first time around. It's like you're projecting all your dashed dreams of parties and girls and debauchery on poor young Ben, who's now got an entire message board thread speculating about his social calendar just because he invented an Oscar predictor.

comment #45

Robin Colcord says ...

Nobody's mad at you being nostalgic about the fun you had when you were 18, precisely because you weren't communicating any of that. Instead, you were yet again affecting your RIDICULOUS bad boy pose when every single poster here knows that you are just some dorky blogger who froths over movies and has Mrs. Dash and Funyun dust encrusted in his neck beard.

comment #46

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Yeah, see what I mean about the "bitter" part?

comment #47

Bix B-Roll says ...

I think "bitter" means something different than you think it means.

comment #48

Robin Colcord says ...

Holy shit, Gabe, are you wearing a HOLOGRAM POWER BRACELET in that Jumpcut Junkies thing?????????????????????

comment #49

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

It was a gift.
Thanks for staring, you creep!

comment #50

Robin Colcord says ...

Who cares if it was a gift. You're wearing a HOLOGRAM POWER BRACELET. You're officially a massive dork.

comment #51

Eddie Mars Attacks! says ...

I did these kind of models for fun when I was in college. Then, I discovered poker. If this kid wants to do a lot of math, make money and party with hot chicks, all he needs to do is start playing cards.

comment #52

moviemorlock says ...

If the Artist beats Tree of Life for Best Cinematography then there is a serious voting overhaul that needs to take place.

comment #53

Mr. Buckles says ...

The correct answer is, who gives a shit (unless you are gambling on this and making sweet money)!

I realize that MANY people do in fact care about the Oscars, but I have to ask, WHY? It is dull, incestuous, poitical grab ass with no more substance than US Weekly.

I feel better now, my annual rant is done.

comment #54

ben says ...

Isn't 'Worry Bomb from Harvard' just another euphemism for Jewish?

comment #55

corey3rd says ...

Sad to think that some guy is going to Harvard and spent time on a computer program to guess what Russell Brand will put on his ballot.

comment #56

Jesse Crall says ...

@Eddie Mars Attacks: Hell, this kid might be making bets on the Oscars and he could make major bank doing so.

When I was a college freshman, Thursday and Friday nights were when you'd go out, party, chill, whatever. But the rest of the week, everyone else was studying. You had to find something to occupy your time if you didn't have a lot of homework and more power to Ben for doing so.

comment #57

Kate88 says ...

Anyone here ever spend time at Harvard? I had some friends who went there and I visited them a few times.

Not a majority of students party like rock stars there. Sure, there are some who do, but not a majority - and the freshmen are the least likely to go out and get blasted. It's really competitive and intense, and the school is pretty strict about their Code of Conduct.

comment #58

jujuju says ...

wells

could we not talk about the oscars until after they've been awarded. damn. you're a movie blogger. don't you have anything better to do than speculate about movies/awards that haven't even happened yet. wait till shit happens, then speculate. do what movie bloggers are supposed to do -- talk shit and trash everyone because you hate yourself and junk, etc.

ps -- really, i'm thinking 'descendants' will win. viola davis will win too. no algorithmic number crunching, just a guess.

pps -- i'm always right, though. go figure

ppps -- this is nothing more than a hit piece. who do you think you're fooling.

pppps -- i'm never coming back

comment #59

Eddie Mars Attacks! says ...

The current Vegas odds.

Viola Davis (The Help) 4/7
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady) 7/5

comment #60

Los Bostonian says ...

I can't take any list seriously that has Jonah Hill as the number 2 choice after Christopher Plummer. Hill has NO SHOT and would be 4th at best out of the 5 nominees.

comment #61

Edward Havens says ...

For all any of you know, this could have been the end result of a class project for the kid.

comment #62

Mr. Peel says ...

"Hey, Harvard makes mistakes too. Kissinger taught there!"

comment #63

Deena Jones' Wig says ...

With a Golden Globe drama and Bafta win, Meryl's changes should be comfortable.
However, Viola Davis has worked that white guilt narrative to the core. I mean, you are verily a racist if you don't vote for her. For a resounding crescendo, she did an interview with Oprah last week where she took off her crusty wig, showed off her exponentially cute baby and cried desperately on camera about the horrors of growing up poor. Then she topped it off with an articulate finale about social consciousness and the struggles of black actresses in Hollywood. It also helps that Oprah said "we are all rooting for you." I mean, how can she not win????

comment #64

AnnaZed says ...

Gabe, this 'I'm gonna fill the Lex void' act has gotten old with astonishing speed; give it a rest.

Somewhere you posted that you don't speak for http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/ yet for some reason you are the only poster I have ever seen here who adds that @ sign and attempts to demonstrate how important they are/aren't by attaching their boss's brand to their posts. It's tacky, stop doing it. If you are gonna keep this shit up just remember that it is possible to Google a picture and a video of you and sometime soon the gloves just might come off, just sayiin'. Gabe@JumpCutJunkies.com I could live with, if you must.

Not incidentally my brother went to Harvard and mostly he ... you know ... studied when he was there.

comment #65

drbob says ...

Holy shit, is that picture in 3-D. I look at that picture and I feel like his nose invades my personal space.

(Yeah, I know a little snarky, and a tad racist too, but I couldn't resist)

comment #66

Gabe@ThePlaylist says ...

Oooh, Anna, don't take the gloves off!

comment #67

Jesse Crall says ...

So....the Jump Cut Junkies are figuring out how to kidnap Jerry Lundegaard's wife, right?

I wouldn't be too concerned with Ben, here. If he keeps up with these advanced statistical diversions, he's gonna hook up with a major trader and bring in 7 figure salaries with 6 figure bonuses. Then, Vanity Fair will right a few pieces on him, his rise from humble beginnings, his risky moves, and his lawsuits with Southampton neighbors concerning waterfront property boundaries.

And he'll get laid a lot.

comment #68

Raising_Kaned says ...

"Humble beginnings," my ass -- dude went to Harvard. This is like that Jeremy Lin shit all over again.

And I agree with Gabe here -- and not just because nobody else will (although that's probably part of it) -- you wanna front-load your life with having sexual affairs because you never know if you'll die suddenly, grow impotent, become gay, etc., etc. No guarantees in this life, hombre.

And if you can't get laid in college when most women are generally sexually inexperienced, blindly optimistic, and often LIVE IN THE SAME BUILDING AS YOU DO, it's time to give up -- you've already lost.

comment #69

Jesse Crall says ...

@Raising_Kaned: I was spoofing Vanity Fair. Every article they've ever written on a trader mentions their "humble beginnings." Even if their parents were millionaires, they damn well came from humble beginnings.
Also: Every ancient widow VF inexplicably profiles will have known Truman Capote.
Every 6 months, an article on "Marilyn Monroe, the Myth and the Truth" will make the cover,
Every 4 months, a piece on "The Real Jackie O" appears.
And every 80 pages, there will be a quote that says "Because when you lived like Frank [Sinatra], you knew a thing or two about love/loss/life/whatever.