I’m told that a few…okay, more than a few nervous nellies are expressing concern about attending the 2020 Telluride Film Festival, which will kick off eight weeks hence. Visitors will arrive on Wednesday, 9.2, and leave on Monday, 9.7.
The concern is that Los Angelenos, who will constitute most of the visiting throng (along with a significant percentage of New Yorkers), might be risking exposure to COVID-19 — on the plane or in the town, or certainly inside theatres.
And yet the statistical likelihood is that of less than one percent of potential Telluride attendees might be infected…maybe. And most likely fewer than that.
Hollywood Elsewhere’s theory is that the Los Angeles industry folk who would attend Telluride aren’t young, cavalier, incautious, come-what-may, party-animal types, and are mostly the opposite — older, prudent, cautious, mask-wearing, hand-washing types.
So it’s not like “Californians” en masse will be attending but residents of industry-centric Hollywood, West Hollywood, Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Venice, Santa Monica, Malibu and Manhattan Beach.
I’m not great with math but consider these figures from LA County’s Public Health site:
Of West Hollywood’s 36,384 residents, 300 are infected with COVID-19 — less than 1%. Out of Beverly Hills’ 34,362 residents, just under 1% are infected. Santa Monica has 92,078 residents, and of these 457 are infected — one-half of 1%. Manhattan Beach has 35,773 residents with 169 infected — less than half of 1%. Malibu has 12,846 residents with 57 infected — less than 1/2 of a percentage point. Of Hollywood’s 90,322 residents, 543 are infected — .6% or a tad more than half of 1%. Venice has 111 infected out of 40,885 residents — close to .3%. Of West LA’s 42,797 residents, 238 are infected — 1/2 of 1%. And so on.
Residents of Brentwood’s Mandeville Canyon number 2571, and of these only 4 people are infected.
I’m naturally presuming that the percentage of Los Angelenos travelling to Telluride would be significantly less than 1/2 of one percent, because what kind of idiot who’s been infected would want to attend in the first place? Yeah, I know — asymptomatic carriers might have it without realizing. But we’re still talking about an extremely small micro-percentage.
On top of which Telluride, Colorado, which has a total native population of 2,484, is nearly disease-free. A 6.22.20 Telluride News story reported 12 new infections, and these won’t constitute the reality around Labor Day. The total cases in San Miguel County, which numbers 8,191, was recently 28 “with 12 active cases and 22 recovered,” the story said. That’s .3% of the population.