"And doesn't anybody worry that all this box office forecasting is a self-fulfilling prophecy?"

What it seems to do is guarantee that, basically, NOBODY is a star. Because never mind that you had a $200 million hit last summer; if you can't have a $50 million opening weekend every single time you make a movie, then you're toast. (Look at the way the sharks have circled around Tom Cruise this time.) Well, the reality is there's usually only one or two people who can do that at any given time, and even they usually "cool off" really quickly (look at how fast the Will Ferrell bubble popped, yet the next time he makes a comedy as well shaped for him as Ånchorman or Elf, which presumably will be Talladega Nights, he'll have a huge hit again). Yet somebody's got to be in those goddam movies; they can't ALL star Tom Cruise or Reese Witherspoon.

I'm not that big a fan of Aniston, frankly I'm not that big a fan of yuppie romantic comedies, but if there's one of those things I'm likely to see, it's The Break-Up, which at least looks like it has some bite and sharp performances, unlike [insert latest Matthew McConnaughey movie here]. If it's not tracking, fine, declare her dead and bury her, but somebody better find somebody to replace her.

I'm totally on board for seeing "The Break Up" as long as the negative reviews don't start pouring in beforehand. I never watched an episode of Friends in my life, but Aniston hasn't been a problem for me in any of the films I've seen in which she appears (I thought she was great in "The Good Girl," so I too would like to see her paired up with interesting directors. I'm there for the movie due to Vince Vaughn and the small role Jon Favreau has in it, anyway.

While I'm not the world's biggest Aniston fan, I think we oughta count Derailed in the win column. It only cost $22 million and made $33 million in theatres alone, which is quite good for a hard-R violent adult thriller. We need more low-budget, low-risk B-star adult vehicles of this nature and bashing one purely because it didn't break the bank is doing a disservice.

Scott Mendelson

Jennifer Aniston is a media creation. She was a former fat girl who got lucky with a TV show. She has no particular talent except for playing the victim quite well and having a great publicist.

First off, "The Break-Up" isn't a good movie, but little that's wrong with the movie is Jennifer Aniston's fault. It's just too wishy-washy to be successful as the kind of boundary breaking relationship comedy it obviously wants to be. I figure it'll open OK ($20-25 million?), but then it won't have "Wedding Crashers"-style legs.

Given the heavy push for "Derailed" courtesy of Weinstein Co., the movie wasn't a failure, but they'd have much rather had it do $50-60 million than $35. Folks at the studio thought it would open better than it did. So it can't really go in either the pro or con camp for her. On the other hand, it was an awful movie and she was quite bad in it, probably the worst she's been on the big screen since the glory days of Leprechaun.

And Geneva Hilton, that's just an utterly ridiculous statement and there's no point in following it up except that I'm bored -- Whether or not Jennifer Aniston is a movie star is open for debate, but what she pulled off for a decade on Friends wasn't easy. If it were, more people would do it. Then again, if you're stuck resorting to the "former fat girl" comment, you don't have much in your arsenal anyway...

Best,
Daniel

Jennifer Aniston is and will always be Rachel. Rumour Has It? Rachel does The Graduate. The Good Girl? Rachel works at the Wal-Mart. Friends with Money? Rachel as a poor maid. She's just playing another variation of Rachel in The Break-Up. When she steps out of her Rachel zone, she's just miscast. I'm not saying she's untalented but I just don't think she's this big A-list movie star the media and her publicity's been trying to sell her as. They've been telling us that for nearly 10 years and if it hasn't happened yet, I don't think she had that much potential to begin with. She just works much better as a supporting character in an ensemble. The Break-Up may be a hit but as she's nearing 40, she won't be able to play the romcom lead for long which probably is her best niche.

Derailed was a flop no matter how you try to justify it. And I don't think studios needs to pour more money into making low-budget, low-risk B-star adult vehicles when you can get more or less entertainment from Lifetime movies.

Why are people hating on Friends with Money? It's the only movie I've seen this year that I can still discuss at length more than a day or two later, and has done fine business.

Aniston is defintely sexy, you must be blind or you've gone gay.

Obviously, the heat of her " life with Brad" has dimmed but she's definitely in demand still.

I hated RUMOR and DERAILED, but liked her in FRIENDS and BREAK UP should open strong and looks worth seeing.

I'm no big fan of Aniston, but for as often as she's made me laugh in Office Space, I'll forgive her a great deal. First rule of Office Space? Don't talk about my flair.

I agree with Sanna. Aniston's more successful movie characters all seem to be variations of the Rachel character, complete with Rachel's comedic tics and vocal inflections. That is why "Derailed" WAS derailed... Jennifer Aniston as a femme fatale? Um... no...

As for "The Break Up," the trailer DID play well in the theater when I saw it, so I may check it out. But then again, if a sample of the funny, snappy dialogue in the movie is Jennifer telling Vince that she wants him to WANT to do the dishes and Vince responding by asking her why any man WOULD want to do the dishes, then maybe I won't be there after all.

Hey gang I just had to jump into this fray. My 2¢ on Jennifer is simple. She is sexy, she is cute, but she's also kinda blank. She doesn't really command the camera. That said I really didn't watch Friends except for a few episodes here and there. for me it was boring and trite. I kinda liked her in Bruce Almighty. She was just right in Good Girl and Office Space. Haven't seen Derailed, it's in my Netflix Q. But I'm seeing it for the crime genre and the great and under-rated Clive Owen. As for the Break-Up... It's the kind of movie that isn't going to 'track' well. It will do decent opening weekend but then it's the kind of pic that needs word-of-mouth to succeed. Tracking is strange. Usually it's the hugh studio productions that people respond to in the beginning. Generally because of the hype. Look at Snakes On A Plane. From the trailer it looks like a fun DVD rental but at the point it could open huge unless it's buzz haqs run out of steam which has already been reported here.

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson built up so much good will with "The Wedding Crashers" last summer that I expect both their films this year - "The Break-Up" and "You, Me and Dupree" - will do well, whether the tracking indicates it or not. Doesn't tracking in the summer skew against films that aren't sequels to blockbusters that everyone is aware of? Also, "The Break-Up" is the only new release opening wide on June 2nd, and it is the first comedy of the summer (excluding "Just My Luck"). The last romantic comedy in theaters was "Failure To Launch" which opened March 10th, and it did great business. I wouldn't bet against Vince and Jen just yet.

I remember a Philadelphia Magazine story from several years back that asked incredulously, is Jennifer Aniston the best Hollywood has to offer these days? Of all the beauties and great actresses of years past, this is what we're stuck with?

Now I thought that assessment was a bit harsh... I've always found her to be a likeable, mildly sexy, and assertive screen presence, but something must be said for her decisions. Since the end of 'Friends' she has relied too heavily on that success instead of concentrating on building big-screen credentials. Almost everything she's been in as a lead has been complete fluff, and not even particularly well-made fluff at that. She just hasn't chosen or been fortunate enough to land a 'Pretty Woman' or 'Legally Blonde,' without witch most stars--to borrow a term from Mike Tyson--just fade into bolivion...

...anyone seen Jennifer Lopez lately? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

People sure do have short memories - Along Came Polly was only 2 years ago (2004) and made $87M in domestic box office alone. Being the kind of film it is (ie, the perfect DVD date flick), you have to assume it made at least that much more in DVD sales. Yet not a single person mentioned it.

Of the three films Wells lists, only Rumor Has It is in the same camp as The Break-up in regards to budget and marketing. The others were a dump job and low budget indie.

This movie looks hilarious. My husband and I are looking forward to seeing it. Don't count Jennifer and Vince out yet !!! Jennifer's career isn't over either. The clips on priceless.com are sooo funny.Can't wait until June 2nd. Along Came Polly did well and I think TBU will too.

Aniston wasn't really a major draw in the first place. Every successful film she's been in(Bruce Almighty and Along Came Polly) was opposite that of a prominent male co-star. I'd say the same for Julia Roberts, but she still has Erin Brokovich to her credit. I feel sorry for Aniston, though, because compared to her Friends co-stars, she actually had some talent. But if Vaughn is standing in for Pitt the way that Monaghan stood in for Holmes, the film is definitely going to turn people off. How can you make successful
romantic comedy out of a prominent couple breaking up anyway?

JD: Derailed barely made any money. But I agree that Aniston is better than most actresses nowadays, particularly Bullock and Paltrow.

Mike: Ferrell isn't a box office draw. The only real hit he's had is Elf. Plus Talladega Nights has the misfortune of being dumped in a weird period in which race-car comedies(Dukes of Hazzard, Herbie Reloaded, Cars, Tokyo Drift)
seem to be all the rage among studios.

Daniel: Looking pretty and pouting isn't what I'd call a hard job.

Rob: Friends with Money just looks a chick-flick variation of Sideways.

Doug: Wilson's track record's been pretty spotty without Jackie Chan and Vaughn. Look at the remake of I, Spy, as an example of a film which should have done well. Hell, I figured him and Murray in Zissou would be box office gold, but it barely registered with audiences. I am actually surprised about Failure to Launch's success, because despite the opinion of People Magazine, McConaughey is fugly, but it's a little less dark than The Break Up.

The Wedding Crashers also did not track the WEEK before it was released. The Break-Up will do fine.

Dunno about Aniston...she is cute, but nobody could have saved "Rumor Has It." Inside-joke train wreck. However, what folks seem to forget is "The Break-Up" is directed by Peyton Reed, the madman who made "Down With Love." That, along with Vince Vaughn, could give this movie some legs and good word of mouth. I'm willing to give it a shot.

Two days ago I say that The Breakup is DOA and then Wells posts this story. Ok--I see how it is.

"Along Came Polly was only 2 years ago (2004) and made $87M in domestic box office alone"

not because it was good, dude.
I couldn't stand any second of it.
It went for cliches in the worst way.

Now,in 'The Good Girl' she wasn't Rachael.
She was the character.. for a good portion of the time at least.
she did have rachael moments and that's probably because she is more a personality than an actress.
she has like the worst case of gary cooper syndrome. she doesn't do anything with her personality.

Who knows how the film will turn out. The real question is, what the hell is Art School Rule #56?

I've seen two different trailers for "The Break Up" six different times. Each time the trailer is greeted with--dead silence. No one laughs, no one in the theater even snickers. The trailer isn't funny, the plot looks moronic. Like any of her successful films, the male star carries the box office (Jim Carrey, Ben Stiller). So it should open well, but that won't be because of her.

i agree about jennifer aniston. she is seriously one of the most boring people ever to become famous. she was charming in friends and i always seem to end up seeing her movies but she's just too boring, too flat. she's not the least sexy, her energy is so low key. there's just nothing there, another one of those actresses coasting through.

I like Jennifer Aniston she is a great actress and also very funny in the roles she has had in the past, I have seen all the different trailers for the Break-Up 10 to 11 times already and i have to say after watching them i think the movie would have people luaghing up a storm.This is the first time Jennifer and Vince have done a movie together and i have to say they work well together, and they can light up together in the movie theaters and homes. They are my favorite people in the world and i can't wait to see them in Movie Theaters together, i can say this when the movie comes out i plan to see it alot until it comes out on DVD.

Art School Confidential was a let down.

The new trailer with her walking around nude, right out of the shower, in front of Vince was pretty damn sexy.

I'm hoping for an R rating. If it gets a 13, I'm passing. If it doesn't puss out and takes an R, I'll see it.

Need proof that Aniston is some kind of draw?

RUMOR HAS IT was one of the worst films of the year, with reviews to match.

But it still did $50 million and it wasn't because of Mark Ruffalo fans (although I like him).

And hey Jeff, weren't you the one who recently re-ran the semi-nude photo of hers with the naked tush?

If that's not hot, you've seen BROKEBACK one time too many!

I'm not sure why this film is being tracked the week before it is coming out, and the only thing that tracking predicts without fail is that people who follow tracking will talk about tracking. That's right, tracking is useless, I said it, move along.

i think this movie will do well, regardless of what the tracking says. there are a TON of aniston fans around this country. while urban audiences may be more team jolie, people in the heartland really like aniston and feel pretty bad about her real-life breakup with golden boy. plus, they find vaughan likeable.

i also think aniston is a good comedienne, if a little flat on screen sometimes. i like derailed, even if it was predictable but she wasn't right for the part. i think given the right material, with the right director, she could actually have a solid movie career. maybe not a-list in the julia roberts sense but definitely a solid career. she just has to pick her parts better.

and while aniston may not be as sexy as jolie, she is attractive and has a great figure. she appeals to guys because of her girl-next-door quality.

This country LOVES Vince Vaughn. And why don't you think Aniston is hot ? Because she chooses not to look like a L.A stripper w/ blonde hair and fake tits ??. GQ named her "Woman of the year" !!Have u ever seen those pics of her? amazing !! Looks like a 18yr. old girl.
Derailed was GREAT- Rumor Has It- sucked- she said so herself. She sells magazines like no other celebrity...she's NATURALLY a breath of fresh air amongst all the syntheticness of Hollywood. You Jeffrey should watch your insults.

This news about Anniston doesn't surprise me a bit. She reminds me very much of David Caruso, who got a big head after his first TV series and quit to make movies, sure he'd be a major star. WRONG. He's not that talented, and neither is Anniston. She's no Meryl Streep and never will be. She's a TV lightweight who got a big head over Friend's success.

Jen is a hot girl, compared to regular girls, but compared to the rest of Hollywood, shes kind of bland. Thats all. And no, you don't need to have huge tits just to be hot. She just isn't striking like Eva Mendes or (hate to say it) Angelina. She just doesn't have that sex appeal of Jessica Alba, or the classic beauty of Rachel McAdams or Scarlett Johanssen. She's just blah. Nice legs though. As an actress, shes is medicore. Not a disaster, but decent enough for those who don't have the most discerning taste. Even my girlfriend who likes her, admits she, and her movies are a guilty pleasure.

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