Posted by Jeffrey Wells on February 06, 2008 at 04:25 PM
The Weinstein Co. paid for thousands of DVD screeners of Todd Haynes' Cate Blanchett reel (i.e., an artful presentation of just the Cate/Jude sections of I'm Not There) to be delivered inside a plastic envelope in today's print issue of Variety. The Envelope prognosticators are predicting an Amy Ryan win in the Best Supporting Actress category, but you know how these things go.


Last updated: October 3, 2007
Obviously I'm light in several categories.
Suggestions and disputations are welcome.
BEST PICTURE: Australia (20th Century Fox), The Argentine (Focus Features), Guerilla (Focus Features), Milk (Focus Features), Seven Pounds (Sony), The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount/Warner Bros.), The Soloist (DreamWorks), Body of Lies (Warner Bros.), Revolutionary Road (Paramount Vantage/DreamWorks), The Changeling (Universal Pictures), Frost/Nixon (Universal), Doubt (Miramax), Blindness (Universal Pictures), Defiance (Paramount Vantage), The Duchess (Paramount Vantage), Valkyrie (MGM-UA), The Reader (Weinstein Co.)
BEST DIRECTOR: Fernando Meirelles (Blindness), David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon), Brian Singer (Valkyrie), Baz Luhrmann (Australia), Steven Soderbergh (The Argentine and Guerilla), Gus Van Sant (Milk), Gabriele Muccino (Seven Pounds), Joe Wright (The Soloist), Ridley Scott (Body of Lies), Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road), Clint Eastwood (Changeling), John Patrick Shanley (Doubt), Edward Zwick (Defiance), Saul Dibb (The Duchess), Stephen Daldry (The Reader)
BEST ACTOR: Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road), Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Ralph Fiennes (The Duchess), Hugh Jackman (Australia), Tom Cruise (Valkyrie), Harrison Ford (Crossing Over), Sean Penn (Milk), James Franco (Pineapple Express), Philip Seymour Hoffman (Synecdoche, New York), Heath Ledger (Dark Knight), Will Smith (Seven Pounds), Jamie Foxx (The Soloist)
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road), Angelina Jolie (Changeling), Keira Knightley (The Duchess), Nicole Kidman (Australia)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Leiv Schreiber (Defiance), Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon), John Malkovich (Changeling and Burn After Reading), Bill Nighy (Valkyrie), Robert Downey Jr. (The Soloist), Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic thunder), James Franco (The Pineapple Express), Alan Alda (Nothing But the Truth)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Meryl Streep (Doubt), Amy Adams (Doubt), Vera Farmiga (Nothing But the Truth)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who (20th Century Fox)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Charlie Kaufman (Synecdoche, New York)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Peter Straughan (How to Lose Friends and Alienate People)
SPECIAL EFFECTS: Iron Man, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Michelle discovers a couple of comedy films thanks to the power of Netflix.
Adam joins the Elsewhere crew from the Windy City and hits the ground running this week.
July 2
July 3
July 4
Diminished Capacity
Gonzo: The Life and Work of Hunter S. Thompson
We are Together
July 9
July 11
August
Eight Miles High
Journey to the Center of the Earth
Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired
July 18
A Very British Gangster
Before I Forget
Felon
Lou Reed's Berlin
Transsiberian
July 22
July 23
Comments
watched my disc during lunch...cool movie, cool performance.
Posted by: actionman
at
February 6, 2008 04:46 PM
Fine film. Stunt performance. Fine for what it was but nothing to get excited about.
Posted by: Higgy Hackford
at
February 6, 2008 05:16 PM
I think the practice of sending out a condensed highlight reel of a film to try and win votes is disgusting. It's like admitting "yeah...we know the film's a snoozer, but Cate's good in it so we'll just show you the Cate parts." That's horrid and just one of many reasons to not vote for this performance.
Posted by: JaySmire
at
February 6, 2008 05:30 PM
I say this loving I'm Not There, and her brilliant performance in it, but don't you think it'd be sorta insulting for an actress of Cate Blanchett's stature to have two supporting actress Oscars? She'd then become the Femme Walter Brennan. If Ryan wins, it's not in spite of Cate, but likely that they're waiting for her to have a good lead to give Blanchett her second.
Posted by: Dellamorte
at
February 6, 2008 05:49 PM
...you got it Dellamorte. This soon after a win? Doubtful. Ruby Dee.
Posted by: Zimmergirl
at
February 6, 2008 05:53 PM
The film is hardly a "snooze."
The Weinsteins knew that for the most part, the only Academy recognition that I'm Not There was likely to get would be for Blanchett's performance. They wisely decided to back that assumption and have been doing their thing ever since to get Blanchett another award.
The movie is great and her performance is more than a "stunt" -- she became Dylan for those 45 minutes or so that she was on screen and she was positively electric in her role.
Amy Ryan will win though...or Ruby Dee (sentimental vote...)
Posted by: actionman
at
February 6, 2008 05:54 PM
I'm really curious about this, so I'll throw it out to the other blog readers/commenters...
Are there any people out there who couldn't care less about either Bob Dylan or Todd Haynes that adored I'M NOT THERE?
I put myself in that category. Objectively, I believe it's a skillful piece of film-making, but the movie simply isn't for me. I appreciate it without loving it in any way.
Posted by: LYT
at
February 6, 2008 06:19 PM
Conversely, I should probably add that I actively disliked Ben Affleck until I saw GONE BABY GONE.
Posted by: LYT
at
February 6, 2008 06:20 PM
I don't know how you love music or movies and haven't been wowed by either Dylan or Haynes at this point.
Posted by: Dellamorte
at
February 6, 2008 06:22 PM
This is the Weinsteins deliberately sabotaging Blanchett's chances at winning. "Cate Blanchett's so great in this movie you don't even have to watch it all the way through!" WHAT? Who the hell is going to vote for a movie the fucking producing company doesn't even like enough to try and get you to watch in its entirety?
Sad, considering it paves the way for Amy Ryan's pandering white trash vaudville routine to win.
Posted by: p.Vice
at
February 6, 2008 06:46 PM
I don't know how you love music or movies and haven't been wowed by either Dylan or Haynes at this point.
Reactions to art are subjective. I'm amazed at anyone who loves music yet doesn't like Guns N Roses or Metallica, yet there are plenty of such people.
However, I totally understand if someone who dislikes, say, Talking Heads, can't stand STOP MAKING SENSE. I like 'em, but I'd get it.
But as a non-Dylan fan, I watched I'M NOT THERE and thought it painted Dylan as a pretentious a-hole I don't wanna know. A well-done film for sure, but I'd really like to know if loving the movie depends on loving Dylan.
Posted by: LYT
at
February 6, 2008 08:37 PM
Supporting Actress is a tough category to choose. Ryan, Blanchett, or Dee could win this one. I have to wonder. Blanchett just won Supporting Actress a couple years ago for playing a real person. Are they going to award her the same prize again for playing another real person? This is someone who's going to be nominated a few more times. I was set on Ryan, but have this feeling Ruby Dee will take the win. It is Black History Month...
Posted by: jse33
at
February 7, 2008 06:02 AM
"Sad, considering it paves the way for Amy Ryan's pandering white trash vaudville routine to win."
you never stop entertaining me.
Posted by: actionman
at
February 7, 2008 07:05 AM
This is a mistake in my opinion, akin to having OJ try on the glove...let the "legend" of Cate's performance drive votes her way because once people see it they'll be disappointed it doesn't live up to the hype. Jeff likes to say it's not hard to play a cartoonish drug addict like Amy Ryan's character...I say it's not hard to play an aloof misanthrope with a wig and a cigarette as a prop. I never once stopped believing I was looking at Cate Blanchett with a strapon. To me there have been much better embodiments or "channeling the spirit" performances in recent performances...Jim Carrey in 'Man in the Moon,' for one...but then, he has no breasts...
Posted by: rocco
at
February 7, 2008 07:53 AM
I love Bob Dylan, therefore I'd already seen 'Don't Look Back' and 'No Direction Home', therefore I found 'I'm Not There' to be insightless and boring.
I did not see 'Across the Universe', but I can't imagine the fabled Eddie Izzard "Mr. Kite" scene is any more embarrassingly literal than the "Ballad of a Thin Man" scene. Or that 'Visions of Johanna' is actually just about a girl named Louise.
I didn't really get a sense that anybody involved in the movie considered Dylan to be a human being in any way, so none of the pseudo-Dylans ever came across as human beings.
And I thought Christian Bale did the best Dylan impression, he just didn't look like him.
Posted by: Sean
at
February 7, 2008 09:20 AM
The sad thing is, though, I think this "highlight reel" thing will get her more votes. It's actually not a bad idea for a supporting category, especially when you're dealing with a character who is completely unconnected to any other character in the movie.
I mean, should people have to sit through all of 'American Gangster' just to make sure that Ruby Dee doesn't re-appear (I'm assuming she doesn't, I didn't see it)?
Posted by: Sean
at
February 7, 2008 09:22 AM
Honestly, I think Swinton's a genuine dark horse. Blanchett's a repeater in a YMMV film, Ryan disappears from GBG for the entire 2nd half (until the final scene), and Dee's got limited traction in a category that's largely abandoned sentiment.
But Swinton has some golden, truly memorable moments and MC builds to the final confrontation with her, so she's going to resonate as a more crucial part of her movie than the others will in theirs.
Long shot? Yeah, but I wouldn't rule her out...
Posted by: ArchiveGuy
at
February 7, 2008 09:57 AM
Scrolling through the lists, I can't help but notice that no category has ever had a black person win two years in a row, so I don't feel good about Ruby Dee's chances.
Posted by: Sean
at
February 7, 2008 10:51 AM
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