I just confided to a colleague that apart from the all-but-certain scenario of Lincoln not winning Best Picture Oscar, “I think Argo will probably take the prize. I’ll be stunned if Silver Linings Playbook wins it, but it could. And if that happens, I will become a Golden Gleaming God among Oscar bloggers because I stood alone and suffered the arrows. If this happens I will damn sure use my terrible swift sword to go after the SLP haters. But it won’t happen so I may as well stop dreaming.”
I’m honestly at peace with Argo winning. The Movie Godz want the Best Picture Oscar to go to my first choice, Zero Dark Thirty, but they know the score on that one as much as everyone else. You’re telling me that SLP has a better shot than Argo, but…what do I know? Nothing. Okay, I feel things but what is that?
“Yeah, I don’t see the argument for Argo,” the friend replied. “It just has too much against it. If this was the election, Obama would be Lincoln, Romney would be Argo and Silver Linings Playbook is Gary Johnson.”
Who the eff is Gary Johnson?
“Or you could say SLP is Romney but you would hate that so I can’t say that. Basically the same odds apply for either of those movies to beat Lincoln as arguing Romney could beat Obama. It could happen but the chances are slim. Still, you should go with what you think — remember you were among the only ones who thought Crash might win.
“Watch the WGA as far as Lincoln vs. Argo vs. Silver Linings — ditto SAG ensemble. If Argo can’t win SAG (SLP or Les Miz will probably take that) it can’t win BP, I don’t think.
“Where we are right now is like when Obama lost the first debate. Everyone jumped ship and figured no way he could win. Nate Silver held fast to the numbers and did so with caveat that this is how it will still go and I’m 99% right. But there is still that tiny chance the numbers would betray the eventual outcome.
“Given that, with Oscar history, numbers and odds — you could probably say it breaks down this way: Lincoln: 75% — Argo and SLP split with a 20% each to win. Les Miz is the straggler with a 5% chance. But a 20% chance to win still means there’s a chance.”
I disagree. Argo has not only edged out Lincoln, or so some of us are sensing, but SLP is probably slightly in front of Lincoln also. Maybe. Forget Life of Pi and Les Miz.