Thus morning I finally got around to dumping HE’s boilerplate Oscar Balloon movies-to-watch list for an Award Season, six-major-category assessment list with special parentheticals where appropriate — ABL = all but locked, EP = extra HE passion, RD = respectful disagreement/disapproval, AG = afterglow or makeup for previous loss, SD/MG = special dispensation/support of Movie Godz, NYS = not yet seen, GW = gold-watch award for septugenarians & octogenarians.
A few nominees are obviously ABL but the standing of many are subject to whimsy, peer pressure, mood pockets & the usual wind shifts.
Best Picture (in order of apparent likelihood): Joy (ABL, NYS); The Revenant (ABL, NYS); Spotlight (EP, SD/MG); The Big Short (NYS); The Martian (RD); Steve Jobs, Carol (fine) Room (RD); Bridge of Spies (RD), Love & Mercy EP, SD/MG) (10). In Need Of Heat: Brooklyn, Beasts of No Nation, Mad Max: Fury Road, Suffragette, Son of Saul (EP), The Hateful Eight (NYS), The Danish Girl. (7).
Best Director (in order of apparent likelihood): David O. Russell, Joy (ABL); Alejandro Inarritu, The Revenant; Tom McCarthy, Spotlight EP; Ridley Scott, The Martian (GW) (5). Heel-nippers: Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation (EP); Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs; Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies; George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road (EP); Bill Pohlad, Love & Mercy (EP, SD/MG).
Best Actor (in order of apparent likelihood): Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (NYS, AG); Steve Carell, The Big Short (NYS); Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs; Matt Damon, The Martian; Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl. Heel-nippers: Michael Caine, Youth (GW), Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies, John Cusack, Love & Mercy (EP, SD/MG); Will Smith, Concussion (NYS).
Best Actress (in order of apparent likelihood): Jennifer Lawrence, Joy (NYS); Brie Larson, Room (ABL); Cate Blanchett, Carol/Truth (EP); Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn EP; Lily Tomlin, Grandma. Heel-nippers: Carey Mulligan, Suffragette (EP); Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road; Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years (GW).
Best Supporting Actor (in order of apparent likelihood): Robert DeNiro, Joy (NYS); Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies; Mark Ruffalo or Michael Keaton, Spotlight; Paul Dano, Love & Mercy (EP); Tom Hardy, The Revenant NYS. Heel-nippers: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes, Freeheld EP; Benicio Del Toro, Sicario; Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation, Jason Segel, End of the Tour; Sylvester Stallone, Creed (NYS); Ryan Gosling, The Big Short (NYS).
Best Supporting Actress (in order of apparent likelihood): Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl; Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs; Rooney Mara, Carol; Jane Fonda (EP, GW), Youth; Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy (EP). Heel-nippers: Diane Ladd, Joy; Joan Allen, Room; Rachel McAdams, Spotlight (EP).
I haven’t yet given myself over to studying Best Original & Best Adapted Screenplay likelies. I’ll add them as soon as I do.