I was speaking to a guy who’s seen The Irishman. I asked if that 8.25 piece I ran, “Six Reasons For Irishman Win,” was perhaps a bit florid (I was thinking of paragraph #8), and whether it might need some rephrasing or toning down.
His response: “Your assessment does not require rephrasing. It’s perfect.”
A friend had told me my assessment was over the top. “You can’t trust [early-bird] reactions,” he said. “Because when you see something alone you see it in a vacuum. I knew A Star Is Born was never going to do squat with the Oscars. I knew it before I ever saw it and after I saw it it was confirmed. You really can’t know until the thing opens, gets reviewed, what’s the buzz, etc.
“The Irishman will be a Best Picture nominee but I’d never predict it to win at this point.”
Then Guy #3 chimed in: “Except the movie Netflix is really counting on Oscar-wise is Marriage Story. Emotional content trumps everything. Plus there’s still a big [Academy] contingent that just won’t vote for a Netflix movie for Best Picture, choosing instead to make a statement otherwise by going with a non-streamer. Marriage Story could be the one that breaks that rule.”
HE to Guy #3: “Marriage Story might ‘break the rule’ but a grand, climactic, epic-length gangster symphony by Martin Scorsese won’t break it? You’re talking to some real obstinate hard-heads out there.”
Guy #3: “Recent history with Green Book, The Shape of Water and Moonlight suggest otherwise. Let’s see the movies first and then kick it around.”