I just had a chat with World of Reel‘s Jordan Ruimy about the New York Film Critics winners, particularly Regina Hall winning the Best Actress trophy for her performance in Support The Girls. Along with a little David Edelstein (but not too much), a discussion of the 18 films on Eric Kohn’s best of the year list, and a little mondo bizarro Beto O’Rourke vs. Hillary Clinton speculation. It’s cut into two portions — part #1 and part #2.
I’ve posted five or six riffs about how Beto O’Rourke has to run against Donald Trump in 2020 — no ifs, ands or buts. An 11.11 Hill piece by Amie Parnes (“Beto 2020 Calls Multiply Among Dems“) stirred the pot a bit. Last Tuesday a similar piece by Politico‘s David Siders had a snap-crackle-pop effect.
“The prospect of a presidential bid by O’Rourke, whose charismatic Senate candidacy captured the party’s imagination, has suddenly rewired the race,” he wrote. “O’Rourke — who raised a stunning $38 million in the third quarter of his race — is widely considered capable of raising millions of dollars quickly, according to interviews with multiple Democratic money bundlers and strategists, catapulting him into the upper echelons of the 2020 campaign.”
The implication of the Siders piece is that O’Rourke will need to pull the trigger by early ’19, certainly by March or April if not before.
Excerpt: “Mikal Watts, a San Antonio-based lawyer and major Democratic money bundler, said several donors and political operatives in Iowa, after hearing from other potential candidates in recent days, have called to ask whether O’Rourke is running, a sign of his impact in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.
“They’re not wanting to sign on to other presidential campaigns until they know whether Beto is going,” Watts said. “And if Beto is running, what good progressive Democrat wouldn’t want to work for Beto O’Rourke?”
Once again, O’Rourke will beat Trump because (a) he’s a blend of Barack Obama, Bobby Kennedy and Bill McKay, and will enlist the enthusiasm of younger voters, (b) he’s 16 or 17 times smarter and more knowledgable than Trump, not to mention more eloquent and principled, (c) is 26 years younger than Trump, (d) at 6′ 4″, he’s roughly two inches taller (and the taller candidate almost always wins), not to mention a lot thinner, (e) he skateboards and (f) played in a band in the ’90s. A changing of the generational guard — sold.
The good news is that in a new Politico poll of registered Democrats, Beto O’Rourke is suddenly ahead of of Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Corey Booker. The Texas Democrat is at 8% compared to Warren’s 5%, Harris’s 4% and Booker’s 3%. That’s significant for Beto, who wasn’t even in the national conversation a few weeks ago.
The not-so-good news is that 55% of polled Democrats would like to see Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders — a pair of well-respected, highly principled good guys — run against Donald Trump in 2020.
The problem with this scenario (and don’t imagine it’s not a big one as far as the under-40 voters are concerned) is that Bernie will be 79 in November 2020, and Joe will be 77. Are you going to tell me that doesn’t give you a moment of slight pause?
I despise ageist thinking and even I’m thinking “hmmmm.” Bernie is definitely too far along. If Biden was seven or eight years younger, maybe, but my gut is telling me “no, someone younger…Joe has been too wishy-washy.”
“Beto O’Rourke is emerging to be an outside contender for the 2020 Democratic nomination, outpacing other potential nominees,” said Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president.
Nobody was seriously betting on the inspirational Beto O’Rourke beating the loathsome, toad-like Ted Cruz, not really. And in the end he didn’t. Too many Texas bumblefucks.
Why did Andrew Gillum, the Democratic rock-star candidate for the Florida governorship, lose to the repulsive Trump ally Ron DeSantis?
Why did Stacey Abrams, the brilliant Democratic gubernatorial candidate from Georgia, lose to her odious, vote-suppressing Republican opponent, Brian Kemp?
Yes, the Dems have won control of the House of Representatives — excellent news, and an overall victory against the Trump corrosion. A lot of diverse new Dems will be heading to Washington. But they’ve lost two seats in the Senate.
Yes, many Dems have triumphed in many tough races all over. But while American voters generally leaned blue in many regions, they didn’t tip blue in a big, decisive way. Too many rural assholes voted in favor of the Asshole-in-Chief.
Dan Lavoie on Twitter: “Tens of millions of Americans looked at what has happened in this country the past two years and said, ‘Yes, more of this, please!'”
Beto ran a world-class campaign, and he could make the difference in 2020. He needs to return to El Paso and flop for a couple of weeks, but starting in early ’19 he needs to take a long hard look at running against President Trump. He could do it — he could win it — he really could. What other prospective Democratic presidential candidate is generating that crackling Beto excitement? Nobody.
Despite the Houston Chronicle endorsement, Beto O’Rourke is currently too far behind Ted Cruz to be elected on 11.6. But at least he’ll be free to launch a 2020 Presidential campaign. For those who haven’t signed up for HE:plus (thanks!), here’s the entire Beto O’Rourke riff that I posted on 10.18:
The hour is getting late and the Democrats need somebody strong and flinty to run against President Trump, and the more I kick it around the more I realize it has to be Beto. The Texas Senate race has nationalized him in a positive light. He’s been a U.S. Congressman for five years. He has the moxie and the aura, and there’s no time like right now.
Nobody else in the Democratic field has that stand-up, here-I-am, take-it-or-leave-it quality…that lean and burnished tonality…that alpha mojo charisma that Beto has. He’s 46 now, 47 and 48 in 2020. Why the hell not?
A choice between a 21st Century Kennedy-like figure, a tough fourth-generation Irishman…an unapologetically liberal, principled, tenacious and patriotic Texan who knows how to skateboard and used to be in a band vs. a lying, bloated, dessicated, hopelessly corrupt, egotistical sociopath and dictator-coddling traitor who will be 74 in June 2020…are you kidding me?
Who else can it be? A voice is telling me that Elizabeth Warren, storied and committed and admirable as she is, might not win against Bluster Cheeto (impassioned granny schoolmarm vs. bellowing alpha bull in a china shop). Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are too old. Sen. Kamala Harris isn’t that well known, and there’s something about her that’s a little too admonishing and prosecutorial (i.e., threatening to hinterland male bumblefucks). And there’s something about Sen. Corey Booker that feels more like vice-presidential than presidential timber.
Fivethirtyeight says there’s a 21% chance that Beto O’Rourke beats Ted Cruz on 11.6. The current forecast shows Cruz taking 51.8% of the votes compared to O’Rourke’s 46.6%. Out of an estimated 17,600,000 eligible voters, Fivethirtyeight expects less than 7 million — 39.5% — to actually vote. Even though Texas is more Republican than the nation overall and even though Republicans have consistently won Senate seats there over the last 28 years, O’Rourke could win if the apathetic, lazy-ass under-30s were to vote. But nope, can’t do it, doesn’t matter…right, guys?
Conservatives don’t represent the majority view, but they’ve nonetheless managed to tip things in their favor by cheating and playing dirty and blocking fair procedure. The four horseman of the apocalypse — gerrymandering, using all kinds of nefarious tactics to keep people of color from voting, dark money and the rank misrepresentations of the electoral college.
But right-wingers’ biggest ace in the hole — the factor that helps them more than any other dishonest, underhanded maneuver in their playbook — is the young person who refuses to vote.
If younger Texas voters got on the stick Beto O’Rourke would almost certainly beat Ted Cruz, but Texas leads the nation in disaffected voters. Right now the polls seem to indicate that Cruz will prevail, and there’s one reason for this — the refusal of young voters to step up to the plate.
Aside from murder and child molesting there is no human behavior more reprehensible than refusing to take an hour or two out of a single day to vote for the best person or, failing that, the lesser of two evils. Imagine all those hundreds of thousands who could’ve held their noses and voted for the deeply unattractive, heavily compromised Hillary Clinton, which would have saved us from Donald Trump. But they couldn’t be bothered. The general understanding is that young people are too pure to vote. They have an asinine view that candidates aren’t worth voting for unless they’re truly inspirational and unfettered. They make me sick with rage.
HE to under-30 assholes: “The responsibility of a country is not in the hands of a privileged few. We are strong and we are free from tyranny as long as each one of us remembers his or her duty as a citizen. Whether it’s to report a pothole at the top of your street, or lies in a State of The Union Address, speak out! Ask those questions. Demand that truth. Democracy is not a free ride man, I’m here to tell you. But this is where we live. And if we do our job, this is where our children will live.”
From “Beto and Ted — Who’s Ahead?,” a 9.21 Gail Collins column about the Texas Senatorial race between 46-year-old Democrat Beto O’Rourke and 47-year-old Republican Ted Cruz:
“Whatever else you feel, you’d have to admit this race has been darned interesting. Beside the normal fights over guns and health care and immigration, at one point the Cruz campaign called O’Rourke a ‘Triple Meat Whataburger liberal who is out of touch with Texas values.’ The state is still not entirely clear on what that means. Whataburger is a popular fast-food chain, and it seemed a lot like announcing your opponent was a left-wing Big Mac.
“O’Rourke responded by eating a Whataburger and then skateboarding around the restaurant parking lot. We definitely need more of this kind of cheery diversion in politics. People are already talking about a presidential run if he wins. Actually, Beto is so hot that people are speculating about a presidential run if he loses.”
I’m sorry but a candidate for the U.S. Senate skateboarding around a fast-food restaurant parking lot at night? This is huge. This is generationally significant. Has there ever been a serious Senate candidate who can whirl around like this? Before I saw this I was thinking “Beto could win.” Now I’m thinking he probably will.
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