It’s generally agreed upon that come Oscar season, Emilia Perez costar Karla Sofía Gascón, a transgender actress who plays the titular character, is in an excellent position to compete for an acting Oscar.

The question is what category she’ll run in — Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress.

The smart play for Netflix, I wrote yesterday, will be to campaign Gascón in the supporting actress category. Because while she’s playing a vivid figure whose name is the title of the film, Gascon is in fact playing a supporting character.

As a Mexican drug mafioso, named Juan “Small Hands” Del Monte, who wants to disappear from the cartel world by becoming a woman, she instigates the plot and pops into the narrative from time to time, but she’s not really the lead.

The actual lead character in Emilia Perez is Rita Moro Castro (Zoe Saldana), a Mexico City attorney whom Del Monte hires to facilitate his transition.

Castro is unquestionably the main protagonist, the central figure, a woman upon whose shoulders the story is carried. Del Monte and his female manifestation, Emilia Perez, are vivid supporting characters who arrest your attention, but they don’t engage your allegiance.

Practically speaking it makes sense to run Gascon in supporting because nobody knows her, for one thing, and we all know the chances for a win are much greater when an outsider or an ingenue (like Hawaii‘s Jocelyne LaGarde or Sayonara‘s Miyoshi Umeki) doesn’t try for a Best Actress Oscar.

Just ask Lily “I may not have played a lead character but you should vote for my identity” Gladstone.

Plus if Gascon runs for Best Actress some voters will surely have an issue about handing a Best Actress Oscar to a biomale competing against natural biological female actresses whose performances may or may not be deemed worthy of an Oscar.

Here’s a discussion I had this morning with a guy who saw Emilia Perez in Cannes and is a huge Gascon fan.

Cannes guy to HE: “How in the world could you credibly say Karla is playing a supporting role? The movie is called Emilia Perez. She plays both halves of the character, remarkably. It is her story soup to nuts (sorry). Can you name anyone whose character is the title of the film who won in supporting actress?”

HE to Cannes guy: “How about Vanessa Redgrave in Fred Zinnemann‘s Julia (’77)? Then again Jane Fonda was clearly the lead character (Lillian Helman) as she drove the story. Just as Zoe Saldana drives the story in Emilia Perez. You saw it — the film starts with her perspective and stays with her all through. She’s clearly the lead.”

Cannes guy: “I would say Zoe Saldana and Karla Sofía Gascón are co-leads. Selena Gomez (who plays Jessi Del Monte, the drug dealer’s wife) and Adriana Paz are supporting.”

HE: “Nope — Karla’s character is a strong supporting. Plus there’s NO WAY IN HELL Karla wins a Best Actress Oscar. Nobody is going to believe the film anyway — a macho cartel leader wants to become a woman so she can escape the crime realm? I didn’t believe it for a second.

“Okay, Karla could try to ‘game the system’ by running as a lead while discussing trans stuff, the same way Lily gamed the system in order to draw attention to the plight of Native Americans. “

Cannes guy: “But the amazing thing is that Karla plays both roles. I couldn’t believe this was the same performer when I saw the movie. I just kept looking for the credit of who played the male role. Plus Linda Hunt won a Best Supporting Actress for playing a man. What’s the difference? In this case you have to recognize the performer as a (trans) woman playing a man, in part at least. It would be historic.”

HE: “Yes, it would be historic. But for political reasons, not artistic ones. My advice is for you to take the woke needle out of your arm. You mentioned Linda Hunt, who was great in The Year of Living Dangerously. But did she get nominated for Best Supporting Actor?”

Cannes guy: “No, she won for Best Supporting Actress. She is a woman. It doesn’t matter what the gender of character is. What matters is how good is the person playing the character.”

HE: “They’ll be able to pull it off if they campaign Karla in supporting. Karla could get away with that. You may not like hearing this, but there are bumblefucks in the Academy who aren’t quite as progressive about trans issues as you might expect or prefer. If Netflix wants to win, they should go supporting.”