You’d never know from attending today’s near-euphoric Spirit Awards ceremony that Tom McCarthy‘s Spotlight, which won five major awards (Best Feature, Director, Screenplay, Editing and Ensemble Acting), isn’t quite favored to win the Best Picture Oscar tomorrow night. I was basking in Spotlight fever and having a great time along with everyone else, but I’m still sensing that The Revenant has it in the bag. I think. “The Revenant can’t win,” a colleague insisted as we sat in the press room around 3:30 pm. “It’s too divisive.” My answer: “I’m not going to slit my wrists if Spotlight doesn’t win or if The Revenant doesn’t win. I can not only live with but applaud either scenario. I’m just feeling the pollen and the pixie-dust vibes and the current in the air…that’s all. And it mostly feels like The Revenant.”

Spotlight gang in Spirit Awards press room — Saturday, 2.27, 3:55 pm.

Best Male Lead award winner Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation.

Son of Saul director Laszlo Nemes, star Géza Röhrig.

Room‘s Brie Larson, winner of the Spirit Award for Best Female Lead.

Tangerine‘s Mya Taylor, winner of Spirit Award for Best Supporting Female.

I missed (i.e., couldn’t have cared less about) The Man Who Knew Infinity (IFC Films, April) when it played during last September’s Toronto Film Festival. That’s because my insect antennae told me in advance what the Variety review confirmed — “plodding.” “overly dutiful.” I can’t stand it when a trailer pushes old familiar buttons that marketers are figuring will make me feel comfortable or interested but in fact push me away.

8:17 am on a sunny and warm Saturday morning, and four hours hence…the Spirit Awards! Yesterday a headline on a Gregg Goldstein Variety story proclaimed that the Spirits “offer a bold, inclusive alternative to the Oscars.” Nomination-wise, that’s true — more diverse, darker, tanner, gayer, cooler, irreverent.

And yet the major-category winners always seem to push back or comment upon the Oscar tip sheet. Plus the Spirit guys always seem to favor the big-marquee, name-value nominees who are also up for Oscars, or who have been snubbed by same. Bottom line: the Spirits are always looking to reach out to, include or at least not alienate those who are watching on the IFC Channel. And that means blanding it down or…you know, avoiding anything too curious or strange.

Example: Spotlight is favored to take the Best Feature award not just because the cast has already been chosen as the recipient of a Robert Altman Best Ensemble award (aping an identical award handed out by the Gothams) but also because of a general feeling that the Spirits need to counter-balance a notion that the Best Picture Oscar is The Revenant‘s to lose.

Another way to push back against the Oscars would be to give the Best Feature award to Cary Fukunaga‘s Beasts of No Nation, which the Academy membership brushed aside over the Netflix thing or, as Lawrence O’Donnell said the other day, probably due to racial bias, or to hand Fukunaga the Best Director award. Or give the Best Male Lead to award to Abraham Attah. But the Feature/Director scenarios aren’t as likely with the Spotlight competition. Marquee value.