In the matter of Scott Feinberg’s latest THR Oscar spitball forecast…
HE to Feinberg: I’m not putting down Tim Fehlbaum‘s September 5 — it’s a very decently constructed historical procedural about ABC’s Munich coverage of the 1972 Olympic Games / Black September tragedy — but I’m not understanding why it’s sitting at the top of your current Best Picture Oscar forecast. It’s good but not that good. John Magaro has more screen time than Peter Sarsgaard, but he doesn’t have much X-factor charisma — a sturdy actor but a tiny bit dull.
You’ve got Emilia Perez in your #2 slot, and I get it. Putting it farther down your list might trigger the fanatics and possibly start a whisper campaign that you (and by extension The Hollywood Reporter) might be transphobic on some deep-down level. So you’re playing it safe, and I totally understand and sympathize with this strategy.
That said, the most significant driver of the Emilia Perez bandwagon is woke identity stuff — you know it, I know it, the HE commentariat knows it. It’s a good, verve-y film in many respects, but while the beginning section is pretty great the ending disappoints. Sooner or later the tent will begin to deflate.
Right now there are four deserving heavy hitters — Conclave, Anora, All We Imagine as Light (get behind this snubbed masterpiece, Academy members!), and A Real Pain. Emilia Perez brings the total to five. I still haven’t seen The Brutalist but I’ll probably include it as a sixth-place contender after I finally catch it on Friday, 10.11.
Bad on Scott for relegating The Apprentice, Ali Abassi’s excellent Trump-Cohn period drama with a truly brilliant supporting performance from Jeremy Strong, to 23rd place…really bad! By any fair standard this movie delivers carefully cured, blue-chip goods.
Feinberg ranking The Substance and The Piano Lesson in 25th and 26th place = adios muchachos!
Here’s hoping that James Mangold and Jay Cocks‘ A Complete Unknown joins this modest fraternity, and maybe Babygirl also for a total of eight noms. Okay, maybe September 5 will slip in and occupy the ninth slot.
Forget Sing Sing, Saturday Night, Inside Out 2, The Wild Robot, Walter Salles‘ I’m Still Here, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (good but not good enough) and Civil War (I was a huge fan but too many people didn’t like it).
YET TO BE WIDELY SEEN:
