In elite polls posted by The Gatecrashers (just went up!) and GoldDerby.com, Sean Baker‘s Anora is decisively the most favored Best Picture nominee, if not (go for it!) the most likely winner of the 2025 Best Picture Oscar.

Out of 12 Gate Crashers contributors, Anora has five #1 votes, Conclave has 2 votes in this exalted category, and Dune II and Emilia Perez have one each.

Out of 28 Gold Derby contributors Anora has tallied ten first-place rankings — the highest percentage of all the Best Picture contenders.

The second–place Emilia Perez, favored by trans identity celebrationists, is supported by seven GD contributors. Conclave has four #1 rankings, and The Brutalist (which Oscar-wise you can totally forget about right now) has three.

Anora director Sean Baker is the top contender in the helmer category.

Anora‘s Mikey Madison is the top vote-getter in the Best Actress, maintaining a decisive lead over Emilia Perez‘s Karla Sofia Gascón. Madison has the Best Actress Oscar in the bag. Don’t even think about it. In the woke ballyhoo tradition of Lily Gladstone, Gascon’s campaign is one-third about artistic merit, two-thirds about identity.

Right now Conclave‘s Ralph Fiennes is the leading Best Actor contender on both charts.

Also on both charts, A Real Pain‘s Kieran Culkin is the dominant contender for Best Supporting Actor realm.

Another noteworthy blast (certainly as far as The Gatecrashers is concerned) is the absolute Best Supporting Actress dominance of Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez. Saldana is slightly ahead of The Piano Lesson‘s Danielle Deadwyler on the GD chart.

Here’s a bare-bones intro penned by Sasha Stone on the Gatecrashers front page: